Posted on 08/10/2007 12:46:26 AM PDT by jsh3180
Natural weather variations have offset the effects of global warming for the past couple of years and will continue to keep temperatures flat through 2008, a study released Thursday said.
But global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, and a couple of the years between 2009 and 2014 will eclipse 1998, the warmest year on record to date, in the heat stakes, British meteorologists said.
Existing global climate computer models tend to underestimate the effects of natural forces on climate change, so for this analysis, Met Office experts tweaked their model to better reflect the impact of weather systems such as La Nina, or fluctuations in ocean heat and circulation.
Instead of using approximations, they used real data on the state of the ocean and the atmosphere to generate forecasts of climate change for the decade beginning in 2005 and running through 2014.
The projections suggested that while man-made greenhouse gases would raise temperatures over the long run, cooler water in the tropical Pacific and a resistance to warming in the Southern Ocean would counteract the effect of global warming in the early years of the decade.
The findings fit with the weather patterns seen so far, said Doug Smith, a research scientist at the UK's national weather service, the Met Office, in Exeter, Devon.
To test the accuracy of their new and improved computer model, Smith and his colleagues decided to run a series of "hindcasts," or forecasts for the years 1982-2001.
The new model yielded far more accurate "projections" for global surface temperatures than the previous model, Smith said.
The paper appears in the journal Science.
Another backhanded admission that Global Warming Is A Hoax.
The computer models are wrong because we cant build a proper computer model but the computer model says there’s gonna be global warming so the computer model is right, even though its wrong because we cant build a proper computer model.
Did I get close?
But global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, and a couple of the years between 2009 and 2014 will eclipse 1998, the warmest year on record to date, in the heat stakes, British meteorologists said.
Hmmmm...... where to start with these sentences.
Do these people really believe what they write? My goodness logic has completely gone out the window.
Lawrence Solomon's "The Deniers" (a series of articles on the view of scientists who have been labelled "Global Warming Deniers"):
Other References:
Interestingly, this forecast is similar to that of the solar scientists—until 2020 or so. According to the global-warming-is-caused-by-the-sun theory, the big chill starts in the 2020s.
you’re closer than the computer models will ever be.
Existing global climate computer models tend to underestimate the effects of natural forces on climate change
This is after they recommend we spend a few trillion dollars based on those very models.
What is actually required for a proper computer model?
Is it enough to put the computer on a pedestal with fancy dress colors? Or are spotlights and a runway required?
I’d like to model my computer. There seems to be a fair bit of cash to be made by one.
Btw do you happen to have saved a link on the 2020’s big chill thinking by the solar scientists?
bttt
... or 2009 or 2010 or whenever it starts to go up.
The chicken little crowd is dead wrong about the warmest year. The warmest year on record is 1934. They lie about most things to support their fantasy.
The chicken little crowd is dead wrong about the warmest year. The warmest year on record is 1934. They lie about most things to support their fantasy.
You can say that again!!!
(well, maybe twice is enough.)
:)
It wont be time to start worrying about warmer than sustainable/survivable temperatures until some time after the name of Greenland is actually appropriate and Britain starts producing quality wines from locally grown harvests.
you see there really is global warming except now it is not but it will. or maybe not
“Natural forces offset global warming last two years”
Seems redundant.
pinging for later
I wish these people just for once could hear what they sound like, they've just been caught out red-handed with their phony predictions of a hot dry summer here in the UK for 2007 where in fact we've had record rainfalls, floods galore & the coldest July since 1988 coming in at 15.2C -1.3C below the 16.5 average.
I guess they've just cottoned on that 2007 is lagging way behind their predictions of being the warmest earth year on record like they said it was going to be, this statement is temporary damage limitation but they're gonna have to dig deeper for excuses in the years to come me thinks!
I'll say. They tend to omit things, like OXYGEN, and WATER, and other things like THE SUN.
Glogbal warming "Scientists" (none of which are real scientists) base all their chicken little "the sky is falling" scare tactics on a computer model that can't even tell us what the weather WAS, never mind what it's going to be.
The global warming hoax is unraveling faster than a rubber band powered airplane propeller.
Then again, it's all based on Al Gore science, what did they expect?
“Natural weather variations have offset the effects of global warming for the past couple of years and will continue to keep temperatures flat through 2008, a study released Thursday said.
But global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, and a couple of the years between 2009 and 2014 will eclipse 1998, the warmest year on record to date, in the heat stakes, British meteorologists said.”
So natural weather variations will suddenly cease in the magic year of 2009?
In other words, they weren't getting the results they wanted, so they adjusted the model so they did.
But global warming will begin in earnest in 2009, and a couple of the years between 2009 and 2014 will eclipse 1998, the warmest year on record to date, in the heat stakes, British meteorologists said.
Convenient. Just beyond the election. The Dems can say it may not be hot now but just wait til ‘09! There’s also the inconvenient truth that ‘98 is not the hottest year on record. It was in the 1930’s.
But the science of global climate change is still in its infancy, with many thousands of papers published every year. In a 2003 poll conducted by German environmental researchers Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch, two-thirds of more than 530 climate scientists from 27 countries surveyed did not believe that “the current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of greenhouse gases.” About half of those polled stated that the science of climate change was not sufficiently settled to pass the issue over to policymakers at all.
Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority for governments. It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major climate threat to the world, especially Canada.
The PR about the report discrediting the sun’s influence didn’t report new information, but only repeated (incomplete) earlier statements by biased GW claimants deriding the solar link. And it didn’t explain the cosmic ray/solar flare influence on clouds at all.
Magically, the temps will begin warming up again right near the next solar cycle - just like they did the LAST solar cycle.
But the sun’s changes have no influence on earth’s temperatures. Nor Mars, Neptune, and Pluto temperature changes.
I posted Steve McIntyre`s disproving James Hansen`s temperature data on another website. AGW`ers are saying McIntyre`s findings are meaningless and unimportant as they only apply to the US.
“Look out kid
Dont matter what you did
Walk on your tip toes
Dont try no doz
Better stay away from those
That carry around a fire hose
Keep a clean nose
Watch the plain clothes
You dont need a weather man (or a computer model)
To know which way the wind blows”
T, I welcome you to prove me wrong.
How can natural conditions work against something that doesn’t exist?....
It should say, “Natural Conditions Work Against Another Communist Plot”
1988 - our models perfectly matched the temperature records - accurate!
1990 - we’ve decided to adjust all the old temperature records down and the newer temperatures up
1991 - our models perfectly matched the new temperature records
1992 - we’ve decided to adjust all the old temperature records down and the newer temperatures up
1998 - our models perfectly matched the new temperature records
2000 - we’ve decided to adjust all the old temperature records down and the newer temperatures up again
2001 - we’ve decided to adjust all the old temperature records down and the newer temperatures up again
2006 - we’ve decided to adjust all the old temperature records down and the newer temperatures up again
August 7, 2007 - oops we made an error in the temperature record adjustments and 1934, 1921 and 1931 are the record hot years again
August 9, 2007 - our models perfectly matched the temperature records (except for the error discovered 2 days ago)
.
.
.
Unless you vote in Democrats in 2008, there will be Global Warming in 2009.
Just like the hurricanes punked out in Florida last year and this one looks like more of the same. Not even any near hurricane activity.
The hurricane prediction center is scaling back this years forecast but tries desperately to remain relevant (and fully funded) by wailing how just because nothing has happened so far does not predict in any way the rest of this season.
TO WHICH I SAY BS!
like night offsets day ?
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