Posted on 07/28/2007 2:27:09 PM PDT by brityank
Variability of the sun’s irradiance, Global Warming
Water Experts Find Earth’s Warming, Rainfall Linked to Sun
By Dennis T. Avery, Hudson Institute
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
A team of water experts says the pattern of droughts and floods in South Africa shows our global warming was triggered by the variability of the sun’s irradiance rather than by human-emitted CO2. They say variations in South African rainfall patterns are keyed to periodic reversals of the sun’s magnetic field—and to the constantly changing distance between the sun and the earth as both move through space.
In South Africa, alternate 11-year sunspot cycles produce opposite rainfall results. One complete “double sun cycle” occurs every 20.8 years: the “first” cycle brings a big flood, followed by a small drought; the next brings a big drought, followed by a small flood.
Lead author Will Alexander used the double sunspot cycle to publicly predict the end of major South African droughts in both 1995 and 2006. He notes that South African droughts have often been broken at 11-year intervals by severe floods associated with sunspot maxima—as in 1822, 1841, 1863, 1874 and 1885. The research summary appears in the June 2007 issue of the Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering.
The South Africans’ conclusion is reinforced by Dr. Robert Baker of Australia, who told a recent meeting of the International Geographical Union that he has found the same 21-year cycle in Australian drought and rainfall. Baker says “the sun is like a musical instrument, vibrating in complex patterns,” with all of the planets moving in similar relationships.
H. N. Bhalme and D. A. Mooley published similar conclusions about India’s floods and droughts in the Journal of Applied Meteorology, September, 1981, based on an Indian flood index compiled from 1891 to 1979. They reported that “a highly significant 22-year cycle in the flood area index was nearly in phase with the 22-year double sunspot cycle.” Bhalme and Mooley also noted that the western U.S. has a similar relationship with the double sunspot cycle and severe flooding.
Clearly, what these water experts are all describing is a global climate connection with the sun.
The number of sunspots on the sun, and their intensity, varies in a cycle averaging 11 years. The distance between the sun and the earth keeps changing slightly and predictably because 1) they move on slightly varying paths through space; and 2) both bodies accelerate and decelerate constantly depending on the combined gravitational forces of the other big planets.
These factors apparently produce the moderate 1,500-year climate cycle on earth, which was discovered in the Greenland ice cores in 1980s and has since also been found globally in seabed and lake sediments, fossil pollen, tree rings and peat bogs.
Earth’s recent global warming occurred too early—before 1940—to be blamed on human CO2 emissions. The net global warming since 1940 is only 0.2 degrees C, with none at all since 1998. There’s little correlation between the earth’s recent temperatures and CO2 levels, but a strong correlation between the sunspot index and subsequent changes in our sea-surface temperatures.
The 1,500-year climate cycle shifts temperatures about 2 degrees C above and then 2 degrees C below the long-term average at the latitude of Washington and Paris, with greater temperature changes near the poles. Temperatures change little near the equator, but rainfall patterns can change greatly; for example, 5,000 years ago the Sahara was wet enough for grazing and hunting, while Kenya was very dry.
The UN climate change panel has declared the solar variations “too small” to produce the climate warming of the past 30 years. However, a recent Danish experiment showed that the solar variations may be amplified fourfold because they create significant changes in the earth’s cloud cover. More clouds cool the earth by deflecting more of the sun’s heat back into outer space.
The evidence for a sun/climate connection keeps pouring in, while all we hear from the Kyoto crowd is “The computer models agree with each other.”
DENNIS T. AVERY was a senior policy analyst for the U.S. State Department, where he won the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement. He is the co-author, with atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book Unstoppable Global Warming—Every 1500 Years, available from Rowman & Littlefield. Readers may write him at the Center for Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org) Post Office Box 202, Churchville, VA 24421.
Dennis can be reached at: letters@canadafreepress.com
Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation
Global Warming
Grrrr......
People making lots of money out of false assumptions.
Ping to two guys I think follow this.
But, but, but, ManBearPig says “we’re doomed” unless the “little people” are taxed more heavily.
It's OK....the global-warming-is-our-fault-so-lets-make-humanity-extinct-crowd will still find a way to spin this to:
Still Bush's Fault
You’re kidding.... the sun?????? Whoda thunk.
What do you expect from one of the ringmasters of the Barnum & Bailey Circus in DC?
I think I might try to get some government money to study the link between global warming and all the weed Al Gore smokes. I mean, it would be worth a few million to be sure, wouldn’t it?
So there fat Al!!
This must be some kind of joke. There are some sick people in the world. The sun causing warming? Pfft!
Thanks for the clear presentation on Milankovitch cycles. Both links are excellent.
11 Year cycle? So that’s why Gore says we only have ten years left. He has to get all of his money before the 11 year cycle comes and things start cooling down. You all really think he hasn’t heard this?
Well, that clinches it. The Sun must be destroyed in order to save the Earth. At the very least the U.N. must sanction the Sun for violating various galactic treaties.
:-)
Oh no. You gave away the secret!
Yeah right guys...
How's the old saying go..Crap in = Crap out...((;O)
An old mainframe bugaboo.
Please, figure out WHAT weed! It could be Hemlock for all we know.
There’s a lot of good info deeper into those links; good synopsis.
“The evidence for a sun/climate connection keeps pouring in, while all we hear from the Kyoto crowd is “The computer models agree with each other.”
First thing you learn in computer class-—garbage in, garbage out.
Al’s gonna be havin’ some troubles when this Gorebal Warning thing finally goes down.
Lawrence Solomon's "The Deniers" (a series of articles on the view of scientists who have been labelled "Global Warming Deniers"):
Other References:
Yup. There is insurmountable evidence that shows him to be a charlatan at this point
Thanks. Got a couple more for you to add at #2.
Of course, and gore the bore knows this...
Al Gore: HE PLAYS ON OUR FEARS!!!!!
(sarcasm on)
BLASPHEMY AGAINST THE TRUE RELIGION!!!!!
For the Elder spoke loud and said the great climate rebelled against the EEEEVIL capitalists and demanded crippling taxation and abolition of personal property.
ALL THOSE WHO SPEAK AGAINST ENVIRONMENTALISM SHALL BE STRUK DOWN AND BURNED AT THE STAKE!
(sarcasm off)
Got any pictures? I like blonds and brunettes and red heads!
read the story again about the 100 blind men and the elephant and you'll get the idea.
No - Can’t Be!
Bush and his policys are not at fault??
No - Can’t Be!
Basically, we just have to convert all the polar bears to solar bears and this whole thing will be done in a jiffy.
excellent!
Thanks for those links. That top article is the first one I’ve seen that tells us at what point we are in the Milankovitch cycles now.
I had to dig up that info about four years back to counteract the trash my daughter brought home from High School. Her teacher didn’t like me much, but my daughter still passed. LOL
Thanks for the links.
The UN has good data to support its claim. We do indeed have a correlation between sunspots and climate, and Avery points out the correlation with precipitation. More importantly sunspots are correlated with surface temperature, the ultimate indicator for global warming. We also have a physical mechanism connecting dark sunspots to increased solar radiation. The area around the sunspots is much brighter. The net effect is increased brightness and radiation, but the total effect is too small to account for the global warming.
Avery's remark about a “recent Danish experiment” relating to clouds probably is a reference to the work of Svensmark. However, his work connects clouds, galactic cosmic rays, and solar activity through the solar wind, not sunspots. During higher solar activity, the solar wind increases, deflecting cosmic rays, decreasing the flux of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere, decreasing clusters (Svensmark 10/3/06) of ionized particles, and decreasing the condensation nucleii for clouds to form. In 2001, the IPCC accepted Svensmark's correlation between cloud cover and cosmic ray flux, but rejected the rest of his hypothesis for lack of evidence. The IPCC failed to discover the broader correlation between the solar wind and Earth's surface temperature. This is direct evidence of the Svensmark hypothesis. Read about the solar wind at www.rocketscientsjournal.com.
Also the IPCC has not recognized the profound effect of variations in Earth's albedo on climate, a controlling feedback regulating Earth's temperature. The vaunted Consensus on Climate has demonstrated a profound incompetence in its treatment of feedback.
Gore Bull warming ping
Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown
New!!: Dr. John Ray's
GREENIE WATCH
Ping me if you find one I've missed.
BUMP
Now, if this article will just reach the great unwashed.
Wow, go figure ...it was the sun after all.
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