Good Hunting... from Varmint Al
Posted on 07/05/2007 8:31:03 PM PDT by Baladas
President Bush has been having an uphill climb in the polls -- or a downhill slide, depending on your point of view.
And according to CBS News director of surveys, Kathleen Frankovic, that picture probably won't be changing any time soon: Presidents can rebound. There can be a “rallying point.” In his 1973 book Wars, Presidents and Public Opinion, John Mueller studied presidential approval ratings. Simply stated, he found three key factors. First is length of time in office; approval usually goes down the longer a president serves, as whatever he does alienates someone. Second is the economy, which can either help or hurt. And third is long-term war, especially American casualties, which reduces approval..
Mueller also identified what he called “rally points,” which can bump up approval ratings, at least for a while. This president’s biggest rally point occurred after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. His support also rose (less dramatically) at the start of the Iraq war in 2003. It declined (as Mueller predicted) as that war went on. Most rally points involve foreign threat or action – like George H.W. Bush and the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Ronald Reagan and the invasion of Grenada in 1983, and even Jimmy Carter and the seizure of American hostages in Iran in 1979. There are also “rally points” when the presidency, though certainly not the nation, has been in crisis. The best example of that was when Bill Clinton’s lagging approval rating rose above 60 percent after reports of his entanglement with Monica Lewinsky surfaced in 1998.
Mueller also notes that sometimes opinions are too fixed to change.
Miss it by a mile IMO - ignores both the Congress and their own apporval numbers, which matter more.
you like liberal media?
That was a rally point?!!
Can he bounce back to what? I don’t see him running for any other political offices. Kind of a lame article. Sort of like all the Democrats now running for their Presidential Primary, seem to be running against a non-candidate. How many times do we have to hear, they hate GW?For that matter, how many times do they have to restate their hatred for GW? The entire world has known it, and been reminded of it day in and day out, since 2000!
Can he? Yes.
Will he? Unlikely.
Gee, I don’t know?
How about Harry Reid? Nancy Pelosi?
Why don’t the ass-biters at CBS ask about those two turds?
Is that a Good Thing or a Bad Thing?
Dead Cat Bounce?
Bad thing. It increases the dem’s leverage going into the 2008 election.
No.
Does it matter? Let him be the Left's lightning rod, enabling Thompson to deconstruct the Hildebeast at his leisure, and even run against Bush himself--there's plenty there to run against from a conservative perspective.
All true, but Dubya’s unpopularity has been strong for over a year now. with most of the movement being downward. Reagan had no protracted unpopularity in the 30s in his era.
This is new territory, and comparisons to Reagan are presumptuous.
I voted for this guy twice, but i now see the error of my ways. He’s going lower poll-wise if I’m any type of reference point. I just wish he’s stay off the teevee, send someone else to talk-—know what i mean?
Don’t forget Sandy Berger.
Yet "today" Reagan is popular?
You seem confused.
I remember it very well.
In California, even with it's liberals, when Reagan died, I have *never* seen an out pouring of people like that in my life.
Hundreds of thousands of people stopped on roads and freeways in Southern California bringing them to a complete stop when his funeral procession passed.
Hundreds ran to freeway over passes. Reports estimated over 500,000 lined the roads and freeways, standing, many crying, waving and saluting, as the President Reagan left on his final trip.
It was unbelievable by any description.
No, Reagan was *always* popular with the people.
Political Science is as much art as it is science, but might I suggest that changes in communications methods alone have been substantial since 1973 - and Mueller's analysis might be as relevant as the "opinion leader" models from the era of influential newspaper endorsements. That is to say zip, zero, nada.
Sorry, not so long ago I would have dragged my Redneck Ass over hot asphalt to support “W”, Hell, that fantasy is history!
Well, I'll admit he's been pretty successful lately in alienating me.
There was a time when I sincerely thought Bush was lined up to be one of the great Presidents of US history, perhaps even eclipsing Ronald Reagan. That was before amnesty for millions.
Maybe Bush will bounce back, but he's running out of time. With all due respect to a President who has sometimes in the past done an exceptionally fine job in a very difficult position, my current feeling about Senor Bush is that he can go suck huevos.
Go back to DU, know what I mean.
So, W should get a hummer from an intern?
Yes, Reagan was hated by the media. Called stupid all the time, IIRC, but I found it very amusing during the viewing and the funeral procession etc., the media could not believe the outpouring. Chris Matthews just couldn’t get over it. I believe it is because of that outpouring that now they don’t make fun of Reagan anymore. I really think that had an impact on them. They direct all their hatred towards Bush while trying to tell us they are fair and balanced. They make me sick. I think Bush’s numbers would go up it he would just build the fence now. That would be a start. I am sick of the Bush bashing on FR.
Good Hunting... from Varmint Al
Nah...not with me.
Bush could raise his approval ratings 20 points overnight, if he simply reversed course on his failed immigration policy. If he went to the American people and said he heard their anger and would build the fence immediately and enforce workplace legal employment, he'd galvanize support. Sadly, this will not happen.
Can Bush Bounce Back?
Probably not. But he should free Ramos and Compean anyway, and do it now.
bttt!
By Mexicans, perhaps. But not by the tens of millions of American citicens he stabbed in the back for the sake of opening the North American Union. I hope the SOB hits the ground like a hefty bag full of chicken soup. Call ME a racist and a sexist, will he? Screw him. Let him swing in the winds of public hatred.
Even in WWII a major worry was that the American people would tire of the hardships of war and demand a settlement short of complete victory. FDR knew this and handled it masterfully. GWB has not: "Not while I'm President" smacks of "See you at the signing." I supported this war but it was a close call. If he can't, or won't, make the case for more war and more sacrifice, then bring the boys home. GW's presidency IS this war and if he can't defend it, he can't defend his presidency.
I disagree.
If there is a terror attack, Bush will bounce back. And so will the Republicans!
Actually, I think the Republicans will anyway since there has been so much bashing by the dimocrats. Let the do it and make fools of themselves.
You don't remember much about that era, do you? I remember every stinkin' day that the liberals spat at the sound of Reagan's name. The peaceniks would throw bags of feces at Reagan supporters. The vitriol and venom that spewed forth from the media on a daily basis was worse than what we saw with Dubya.
You want to know the difference between President Reagan and President Bush? Reagan kicked the Soviet Union's ass and made us proud to be Americans. Bush would declare war on "Communism," let Russia run our ports, and chastise us as racist for daring to question him about it.
>So, W should get a hummer from an intern?
No, but maybe he and Laura should consider doing some racy home videos that "accidentally" get leaked to the internet...
Bush could have been a great president. But the collapse of his fortitude and his disdain for American citizens will damn him for one of the worst. Carter was still worse in my book. So was Clinton. But Bush is not even near the best.
If you want to get a good feel for someone, pay little attention to political polls. For example, one certainly doesn't need a poll to see what the mood of the country is towards Bush and bis administration. Just talk or listen to your neighbors, co-workers, friends, the radio, and read the Internet...You need no other sources.
Reagan was the real deal.
So he signs a bill against partial-birth abortion, that;s good. But anything else on the abortion issues and we are told we have to “change hearts, before we change laws”. Check the numbers on abortion polls, and I think the only people left to convince think a child should be able to be aborted right up the time it graduates from college.
How good is he on terror? Well, how many terrorists snuck over our open southern border?
Also, Ramos and Compean!!!Why are our border age3nts going to jail for doing their jobs?
And the judges! If conservatives hadn’t flipped out about the Miers nomination, we wouldn’t have Alito.
Sorry, not seeing much reason to give this president my support.
That was almost 22 years ago. What is happening today, and the past decade in particular, in no way resembles what was occurring back then. Yes it was a mistake, but does anyone think for a moment if Reagan were president today, he would even consider this disastrous bill?
I think not.
Ronald Reagan struck as, above all else, a man of good faith. While he was able to see the danger to humanity that Communism and despotism posed, he also believed that there was an intrinsic decency in human beings and that if it could somehow be tapped into, people would become excited about doing good things and standing up for good principles. I simply think that in this case, it would have been better if he had seen the underlying danger of granting amnesty to illegal aliens. I cannot explain that.
I look at my 17-year-old kid sometimes and I can see the sense in that. (Just kidding. Put DOWN the tar brush and step AWAY from the barrel of feathers.)
It's like having your home half engulfed in flames, and using gasoline to put it out.
Whatever good things I thought about GW Bush before 2004 have pretty much been dissolved at this point. The man is a bum and a traitor for this, along with the congressmen who tried to dupe us into it. I spit in his general direction.
What does that mean? He was suggesting that W is a lousy speaker. W is a lousy speaker. Even Helen Keller knows W is a lousy speaker. That's no reason to chastize and tell someone to go to DU.
Not all of us are bush-bots, "know what I mean."
If there is a terror attack it will come across the border he refuses to guard and it will be cause for his removal from office. Maybe worse.
The Vanishing President...
“Probably not. But he should free Ramos and Compean anyway, and do it now.”
If he can do it for Libby surely he can do it for those two. :/
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