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To: expat_panama
What we're left with is that for the past 200 years stocks have been going up

I assume you caught the point that doesn't always happen in the second half of -7 years.

You can play the seasonal probabilities or ignore them, that's up to you, but I can guarantee you won't be around 200 years from now to take advantage of the fictional "Total Nominal Return Indexes" in your chart, which is made up of an ever-changing mix of stocks that no one would ever actually invest in even if they were to live eternal. Doggy stocks are dropped from indexes over time which inflates their performance artificially, not to mention that fact that nominal returns are meaningless in a world with inflation.

12 posted on 07/07/2007 3:52:52 PM PDT by steve86 (Acerbic by nature, not nurture)
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To: steve86
I assume you caught the point that...

I'll be the first to admit that there's a lot going on that I don't catch the first time, and I'm always eager to learn new stuff every day.  I'll confess that I totally missed the part you mentioned about "doesn't always happen in the second half of -7 years"--maybe we're both being hampered by communications gaps here. 

What I got from your post was that Wheeler's figured out something about -7 year patterns, but whatever it is it's not anything that can tell us which particular financial instrument we should buy, sell, or hedge.  If there was something that Wheeler's saying we're supposed to do, then please let me know what and why.  

My point was that while I was unable to see any of the stock price patterns he was talking about, I have managed to see that data going back over hundreds of years show that stocks average 7% over inflation -far better than either bonds or metals- and that there's never been a 10-year holding time that hasn't yielded an inflation adjusted profit.

13 posted on 07/07/2007 5:53:58 PM PDT by expat_panama
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