Posted on 04/23/2007 10:01:49 AM PDT by John Cena
April 23, 2007 For the fourth straight week, Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) has gained ground and he has finally caught New York Senator Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. It’s now Obama 32% Clinton 32% and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards holding steady at 17%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is a distant fourth at 3%. Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden each attract 1% support. So does General Wesley Clark.
Obama has been steadily gaining ground during April. Last week, Clinton had a two-point lead. Two weeks ago, it was Clinton by five. The week before that, the former First Lady was up by seven. Our last release in March found Clinton enjoying a double digit lead. Clinton now holds a narrow edge among white voters while Obama leads by 16% among African-Americans.
A separate survey showed that Obama has the highest level of core support among all Presidential candidates—33% of voters say they’d definitely vote for him if he’s on the ballot in November 2008.
Rasmussen Reports releases national polling data on the Democratic nomination process every Monday and on the Republican race each Tuesday. The current survey of 579 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted April 16-19, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 49%. Obama’s numbers are a bit stronger—59% favorable and 34% unfavorable. The two candidates are essentially even among Democrats—Clinton is viewed favorably by 74% in her party while Obama is viewed favorably by 72%. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50%, Obama by 67%.
All Democratic candidates issued statements last week opposing the Supreme Court ruling on partial-birth abortion. That ruling was little noticed due to the tragedy at Virginia Tech. Just 40% of Americans knew how the Court ruled on the issue. Most who knew agreed with the ruling.
The Democrats were cautious in their statements about gun control following the Virginia Tech shootings. While there has been an increase in support for stricter gun control laws in the aftermath of that horrific event, less than half of Americans want stricter gun control laws.
Iraq remains the Democrats most potent issue—just 33% of voters now believe history will judge the U.S. mission in Iraq a success.
Yesterday was Earth Day and 45% of American voters see Global Warming as a Very Serious problem. Another 28% say it is Somewhat Serious. There is a significant divide over whether the human activity is the cause or if the Warming is simply part of a long-term planetary trend. (More Below)
Advertisment While Obama and Clinton are the frontrunners among Democrats, Edwards does best in general election match-ups. He leads all GOP hopefuls and is the only Democrat to lead the Republican frontrunner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. New results in the Obama-Giuliani match-up will be released on Wednesday. Clinton and Giuliani are essentially tied.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates favorability ratings and general election match-ups for all Democratic and Republican candidates. Also available are ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists.
Rasmussen Reports also monitors underlying party identification trends and has found a substantial shift away from the GOP over the past six months.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
To gain, you have to have something to offer. Either charisma or a good plan. Hillary offers none of that. All you here is "Vote for me because my husband is Bill Clinton." What a horrible thing to run on. By this time next year, Hillary's presidential aspirations might be dead and burried.
Enter Al Gore.
The really bad news is that if Obama makes enough of a showing, she'll HAVE to bring him on the ticket, and that's scary.
We shouldn’t underestimate Edwards. He’s got union support and that’s what put Kerry over the top once the media hacked up Dean.
I disagree. She won’t win the nomination. They hate her at DU.
I’ve noted for almost two years now she won’t enter the DNC primaries.
The only thing that happens when she gets publicity is the average voter remembers how much they disliked her in the first place, which is borne out by the latest polls. Her visibility rose, her ‘negative numbers’ rose as well, without a cooresponding ‘positive’ rise thats even measurable outside the margin of error.
This is very much like going to a highschool reunion, and trying to convince your old classmates the most hated teacher at the time ‘wasn’t so bad’. Its an exercise in futility.
Who’s going to forget the so called ‘smartest woman in the world’ look ridiculous saying 256 times under oath ‘I can’t recall’?
Who thinks that won’t end up in nationally run commercials if she does gain the nomination, if she enters the primaries?
We’ve all known people like Hillary Clinton, folks. We all know we try to avoid them if we can.
The best thing HilLIARy can do is sit down and shut up, and let the others battle it out for who will be 2nd place on her ticket.
But the buffoonery she has shown so far has reminded people of the first clintoon presidency and she has lost the ‘guarantee’ she had of a presumptive nomination.
She is proving to me more and more that she is less and less capable of running a campaign in the foreground. The stupid things she says and does, along with reminding us about cattle futures and vince foster and the numerous clinton crony indictments and convictions is leading her to drop like a lead ballon.
They are ALL better than the hildabeast
She’s got one advantage: Obama is just popular because of the “Colin Powell” effect: it makes people feel good to say, “Yes, I’d vote for the black guy.”
So when does Sharpton announce to help the Hildebeast?
The wild card is that a HilLIARy/Obama ticket is almost a guaranteed win in ‘08
Ut O
Obama’s invitation for a stroll in Fort Marcy Park is being prepared as we read this.
Call this the Imus Effect.
We’ll see. I can’t remember when someone led consistently in all the polls for the nomination then didn’t win it. It would have to go back to the 50s.
Like she cares. She’s going to get all the money she can get her paws on then rub it into Bills face! She knows she can’t win without personality. Now its just a matter of seeing how much money she can collect before Obama starts rolling!
We’ll see. I can’t remember when someone led consistently in all the polls for the nomination then didn’t win it. It would have to go back to the 50s.
I can see Gore or Edwards winning, but even that would be a stretch. Stupidly, they knocked Bayh and Warner off the ballot.
Norah O’Donnell of MSNBC had the most insightful and accurate take on HRC’s 1st quarter fundraising. She first stated that Hillary had inherited her husband’s list of 250,000 donors to tap, on obvious initial advantage over her opponents. Yet, despite that edge, only 50,000 out 250,000 donated to her campaign, a miserable 20% response. Norah stated that the Clinton campaign worked furiously trying to work this list, but with minimal success. Also, Norah made a big deal out of the that $11 million dollars had been transferred from Hillary’s senate campign account to her presidential account. So at the end of the day, Hillary only raised $15 million dollars as a presidential candidtate. Obama smoked her, and she and her staff know it. I’m looking forward to the Clinton slime machine’s coming attacks on Obama’s character, and the Obama campaign’s tough responses, this is going to be a dem primary war like nothing we’ve ever seen.
Howard Dean. 2004.
That’s not as long ago as the 50’s.
That’s too bad because I would like to have her as an opponent in the General Election.
I'm convinced it's a part of Hillary's evil plan from the beginning.
After a recent trip to the Pac. Northwest, I’m really depressed about even the so-called “red states.” They were telling me that the county where Boise is has become 50/50 Dem Republican!! And my co-author in Washington says he can’t imagine another GOP sentator being elected there. Ohio continues to flounder. So, sadly, we may be entering an era where we are a definite minority.
Hillary sucks as a human being. Reports are that even her own DAUGHTER prefers Bill to her mother. Now THAT’S SAD.
And that even the Dimocrats have begun to notice this PHONEY may offer some glimmer of hope that they’ve come to their senses...
(Pregnant pause here...)
NAAAAHHHH
You’re assuming rationality on the part of the base, a fact not in evidence. I do not underestimate Hillary or her machine. She’ll go after Obama and conservatives. (IMO)
But even if true, I'd suggest that Dean never did have widespread support, but Hillary has had a 25-30% base that has been slavish to her for years. They won't get spooked if she loses the Iowa caucus. And Dean had the $$, but never had the organization she does.
this is Obamama’s to lose. BUT if it is true Gore is charging..........well Gore will win.
Sheryl Crow would be a more effective candidate than either Hillary Clinton or Al Gore. Sheryl Crow has an innovative program to limit global warming by restricting both men and women to one square of toilet paper per sitting.
This takes a lot of ingenuity and courage on her part, and I believe that she is amply qualified to be our next Democratic nominee for President of the United States!
Anyone who believes Hillary WON’T get the nomination is living in a dreamworld. She will personally stab anyone who get’s in her way if she has to. THe only question is... will she have to bring O’Bahama with her on the ticket.
If I was BaraCACA Hussein Osama, I’d be scared to death. The Clintons will do anything to get what they want.
Stay out of Marcy Park.
I love it - you’re right - this is where the left is headed....
INCREDIBLE
“The Clinton machine will cajole, intimidate, and otherwise coerce compliance.”
Ahhhhhh . . . true enough. But there is a whole different set of dynamics at play, here. This would be the Hitlary politics of personal destruction launced against another DIM! A black one at that. The media won’t play lap dog in this instance like it does when she attacks repuglicans. Not only will it be highly entertaining, she might just step on her d!ck and get caught in her own evilness.
never thought i’d see the day that a man named Barrack HUSSEIN OBAMA would come close to being President of the United States. pitiful..
In the end. There can be only one.
It will be Hildabeast.
“We shouldn’t underestimate Edwards. “
How do you underestimate zero?
Let’s hope you guys are right. Me? I foresee a Clinton/Obama ticket.
ping
You gotta admit, she’s one square with the poopulance.
If Hillary’s downward spiral continues, she will NOT win the nomination. Thank God.
I still think that attack ad linking her to 1984 and Orwellian thinking did a lot more damage than people realize.
Her problem is still the same. She is a basically distasteful, repugnant person who you dislike more and more with each encounter. If she can’t learn to turn on the charm like her “husband”, she’s dead meat.
Yeah, I’m not counting her out, but for her the slope is getting steeper, not easier.
“hillary! truly sucks as a candidate.”
Hillary! will be the next president of the united states. they will tout her as the first woman president, but she will actually be the first totalitarian-leftist president to be elected by the “american electorate”.
the feminists will vote for her. soccer moms will vote for her. all the secular types will vote for her. she will be worshipped. the left will have a collective orgasm that will shake the earth.
WRONG Oprah and DeGeneres have not called out the Ditz VOTE YET..
American women WILL HAVE A SOCIALIST President 2008..
A SOCIALIST WOMEN President..
Voters who admit they will vote Democrat in ‘08, 45%.
Voters who will vote Republican, 35%.
Third Party, 6%
The remainder, 15% undecided, (more than likely the usual independents/swing voters who lean moderate to Liberal.
The country as a whole has gone to the left/moderate as some of us are trying to point out.
This has nothing to do with the message, only points out reality to some here who still believe the country is still overwhelmingly Conservative. That concept has changed drastically in the last few years.
Did you leave out O'Donut Hole and WahWah on purpose?
Hope Obama has his Last Will and Testament in good shape!
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