Posted on 02/09/2007 5:50:02 AM PST by GulfBreeze
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has led the field for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination in most polls of GOP voters. His popularity among the partys mainly conservative base is founded on his image of standing tall and reassuring New Yorkers following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on their city, though some voters also know him for his tough-on-crime persona and efforts to rein in government spending.
But there are aspects of Giulianis record; his views, especially on volatile social issues; and his personal past that do not thrill conservative activists. In fact, some are inalterably opposed to him and vow to block his efforts to obtain the Republican nomination.
Though this potential downside has gotten some mention in the media, Giuliani has gone relatively unscathed by political opponents so far. But that is likely because he appeared to be genuinely uncertain about whether to plunge into a Republican nominating process that for decades has favored strongly conservative candidates.
But Giuliani moved closer to becoming an official contender for president this week he filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission Feb. 5 and its likely that those disinclined to his nomination will start probing his vulnerabilities before long.
The Giuliani campaign has shown, albeit unintentionally, that it at least wont be caught unaware by any political attacks. A memo detailing Giulianis campaign strategy, which was apparently misplaced and leaked to the press, showed that his own campaign questioned whether his positions on social issues would be an insurmountable problem for the former mayor.
These include support for abortion rights, though he says he supports a ban on the procedure known as partial birth abortion as long as there is a provision to protect the life of the pregnant woman; general support of gay rights, though he says he is opposed to same-sex marriage; and gun control, also a red flag for many conservatives, but a stand Giuliani describes as fundamental to his successful efforts to sharply reduce his hometowns crime rate.
The memo also measured the political baggage stemming from the fact that his spouse, Judith Nathan, is his third wife; his very public divorce from his second wife, TV newswoman and actress Donna Hanover, amid allegations that he already was romantically involved with Nathan; and his former business partnership with ex-New York City police commissioner Bernard Kerik, who pleaded guilty to charges of ethics violations last year.
So Giuliani whose national stature stemmed largely from the label of Americas Mayor that was applied to him after 9/11 nonetheless faces a significant challenge in winning over religious and other conservatives, who continue to be an essential segment of the electorate in the upcoming Republican primaries and caucuses.
Giuliani doesnt need every conservative to support his bid, but he cant win without some level of support from the party base, said Dan Schnur, a veteran California Republican political insider who in 2000 was national communications director for Arizona Sen. John McCains run for the Republican presidential nomination.
McCain, who according to polls and pundits is one of the other leading candidates for the 2008 nomination, is more conservative on social issues than Giuliani. But he also has a reputation for challenging Republican Party orthodoxy that turns off some conservatives, some of whom havent forgiven him yet for challenging George W. Bushs status as front-runner in the 2000 contest.
Some conservative groups, publications and blogs have already vocalized their apprehension or outright rejection of Giuliani.
Mike Mears, executive director for the conservative Concerned Women for Americas political action committee, listed high moral character as the first trait on his list of ideal presidential candidate qualities. Though Mears said the group, with its stated mission to protect and promote Biblical values, has yet to completely evaluate the candidates, he did say that Giulianis support for abortion rights and gay rights are opposite to the beliefs of members of the Concerned Women for America.
Mears stressed that the group is not writing off Giuliani, stating that there is always room for someone to change. But he added that the group would require evidence of a change in order to feel comfortable about any candidate with a moderate record on social issues. Mears said the organization will look for ways to work with the eventual party nominee as well as the next president.
Other organizations express less flexibility. There are some who say, Well, all we need from Giuliani, for instance, is a promise that hell put in a judge that will be a good constitutionalist, said Connie Mackey, senior vice president of Action, the legislative arm of the Family Research Council (FRC). And we would disagree with that.
The group describes its purpose is to educate the general public and cultural leaders about traditional American values and to promote the philosophy of the Founding Fathers concerning the nature of ordered liberty.
Like Mears, Mackey listed the sanctity of life and the preservation of marriage as two major issues on which the group will judge a candidate.
Ones voting record, ones statements on issues that are of concern that affect the culture are very important to organizations like the FRC, said Mackey, who added that theres still a long way to go in the campaign.
Giulianis campaign aides contend that rank-and-file conservatives view the candidate much more generously than do some of the activist groups. In a memo authored by strategy director Brent Seaborn and released to the public last week, the campaign pointed to polling numbers they say show Giuliani with strong approval among white evangelical Christians [76 percent] and self-described conservative Republicans [82 percent].
The Giuliani campaign announced Thursday that Republican Rep. Candice S. Miller of Michigans 10th District endorsed Giuliani and will speak in his favor this weekend at her states Republican Party convention in Grand Rapids.
Miller served as chairwoman of President Bushs 2004 campaign in Michigan and has a mostly conservative voting record that includes voting against federal funding for stem cell research, supporting a proposed amendment to the Constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage and supporting a ban on partial-birth abortion.
Giulianis campaign also argues that one or two issues will not define the contenders. Republican primary voters will choose their candidate based on a variety of factors and they will ultimately judge the candidate as a whole, said Giuliani spokeswoman Katie Levinson. Rudy enjoys strong support across the country within the Republican Party from people who share his views on a variety of issues and appreciate his strong leadership and his record of result.
Several polls on the Republican nominating contest have shown Giuliani and McCain joined in the top tier of candidates by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who espouses socially conservative views but recently has had to explain the more moderate positions he took in his political debut an unsuccessful 1994 challenge to Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy.
Schnur said this lineup is ideal for Giuliani. None of the top-tier Republican candidates are individuals with whom social conservatives are completely comfortable, said Schnur. Giuliani doesnt have to convince these voters to trust him completely, he just has to convince them to trust him more than they trust John McCain or Mitt Romney.
But for conservative voters who cant reconcile themselves to any of these three, there are plenty of amenable options in the crowded Republican field. Among those appealing directly to voters on the GOP right are Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, California Rep. Duncan Hunter and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.
For now, said Schnur, Giulianis celebrity status as the mayor who lead New York City through the post-9/11 recovery efforts guarantees him prominent media coverage and more visibility than the lower-tier candidates.
Schnur added that the presence of one additional candid thing scares Republican primary voters more than the prospect of President Hillary [Rodham] Clinton, said Schnur. All three of the top-tier [Republican] candidates can use that fear as a way to convince more conservative voters that theyre palatable because they can beat her.
I still don't think that pro-Rudy guys understand that the problem with Rudy in the general election is NOT a conservative revolt. It is that he will be unable to energize those conservatives to care enough over the difference and thus even go to the polls.
Everytime I make this point. I get Rudy folks asking me "Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it." Yes. Yes, I will.
I wouldn't be the problem for Rudy. The problem, again, would be those social conservatives may vote often but not every time. This would be one of those times where they are NOT going to be motivated to go vote.
Hate Hillary is not going to get it done anymore than Hate Bill got it done for Bob Dole.
My preference/bias is well known, I like Duncan Hunter. Name ID is only a problem in the rimary. The two major party nominees will all the name ID they can stand going into November 08, no matter who they are.
Ping
I can't and I won't.
I've held my nose for other "Republcans", but Rudy is beyond the pale.
Anti-self-defense, pro-abortion, pro-pervert, pro-tax-and-spend.
Sorry.
I'll have to vote "Constitution Party", even if it's only symbolic.
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Me too, and as you pointed out with Bob Dole, we are voting for a loser because it's a lackluster vote.
A lot of conservatives will stay home, not out of anger, but simple lacke of interest in voting for the least of two evils.
As it appears that the Witch is going to get the Dim nomination, there is a real danger that she will be elected (Gore won the popular vote, and even Kerry would have won had he gotten Ohio - and Ohio just dumped DeWine for a left-wing Senator.) It is certainly possible that the prospect of the Witch will energize the conservative base and overcome whatever reservations there may be about Rudy's social positions.
If I could appoint a President (but that would take a Constitutional amendment not likely to be forthcoming) it would be Newt.
If Rudy gets the nod ... it will because of his proven leadership under fire. We are facing an implacable foe who means to kill us. Make no mistake, the Islamo-Nazis are perhaps a more determined foe than the Nazis of WW2. Until this threat is eliminated, the partisan bickering should cease. This country is in deep denial. As a NY-er, having lived through the nightmare that was 9-11, I truly fear it might take another catastrophic attack to wake us up. I do not denigrate the virtues of any position, candidate or issues, but I do mean to remind all who "live" here of a dangerous lack of focus.
OK, I'm done now.
From the second paragraph. "do not thrill conservative activists." No need to read further
Why are consrvatives who disagree with the social side of a candidate considered activists? The way one conducts their personal business and family life has a great deal of significance on their degree of dedication and how well they play with others close to them.
This is mainstream resistance and not a few dissenters.
Gulliani is a MSM darling, part of the MSM Presidential candidate draft. CAndidates who make tough decisions and stand behind them are not welcome.
To fail to vote for the GOP nominee in 2008 is voting for Anti-self-defense, pro-abortion, pro-pervert, pro-tax-and-spend.
All of these things will be more prevalent under a Democratic President than ANY Republican president. There will only be TWO candidates in the race.
Others will be on the ballot but only TWO in the race. My duty is to vote for the one which is going to move the Conservative agenda forward best. No matter who we nominate, that means the GOP candidate.
In 15 or 20 years, the situation may be different.
A lot of people feel the way you do. That's why shoving Rudy down our throats is another LOSING strategery for the GOP.
Passion is on the side of the real conservatives - we need to work like all-get-out to get our candidates' names out there.
GO DUNCAN HUNTER!!!
I'll vote for Rudy in the general election. If I have to. I guess. If he runs on the War on Terror and cutting Federal spending and waste.
In the meantime, I'm going to do everything I can to keep him from getting to the general election. He should be a Democrat, blast it.
Did you read a single word of my post?
Scan around and read my posts.
If we want to get a grassroots movement out for a candidate we like - that's our business.
Stop trying to blackmail me into voting for someone I don't like before the primaries have even happened.
You are the one with the defeatist attitude.
If Rudy gets the nod ... it will because of his proven leadership under fire. We are facing an implacable foe who means to kill us. Make no mistake, the Islamo-Nazis are perhaps a more determined foe than the Nazis of WW2. Until this threat is eliminated, the partisan bickering should cease. This country is in deep denial. As a NY-er, having lived through the nightmare that was 9-11, I truly fear it might take another catastrophic attack to wake us up. I do not denigrate the virtues of any position, candidate or issues, but I do mean to remind all who "live" here of a dangerous lack of focus.
OK, I'm done now.
Symbolic, coupled with pouting and apathy, is what got us to the point where we are now: Pelosi and Murtha harranguing the Pentagon in public, a moslem on the Judiciary Committee and all manner of other sleaze too numerous to mention. So you keep right on with symbolic.
THank you for your plain speech. Much needed and appreciated. I guess it will be rough two years here, but I just bought a brand new flak jacket and I am ready!
To fail to vote for the GOP nominee in 2008 is voting for Anti-self-defense, pro-abortion, pro-pervert, pro-tax-and-spend.No offense, but voting for Rudy is voting for all but the last... and the GOP itself has pretty much been pro-spendspendspend
I understand the shortcomings our party is dealing with. In November though you have a choice between two and only two. The democratic candidate, in every case, will be worse on those issues than the GOP candidate.
I like Duncan Hunter. I will work for Duncan Hunter.
If he wins the GOP primary. I will vote FOR Duncan Hunter in the General election. I will vote for the Republican Nominee in the General Election because in every case that person will deliver less of the socially depraved crap than the Democratic nominee.
My reference for this continues to be the likes of Daniel, Shadrack, Mishak and Abednego in the old testiment serving under a Pagan King.
Listen. This is the primary. They have primaries for a reason. The reason is to debate the merits and qualifications and desirability of the men that throw their hat into the ring. It is the time for the various factions to try to push their parties in the direction they want them to go. And I dare say that the majority of freepers want to see the party and its candidate move right, not left.
There will be an emerging challenge to Rudy and McCain from the right wing of the party. It might be Newt, or it may be Hunter (as I hope). It is going to happen, it is the natural thing to happen in a free society. If Rudy weathers the storm well and comes out on top, many conservatives will still vote for him, noses plugged or not. Others will not. But I tell you what, if Duncan Hunter somehow manages to get the nod, ALL conservatives will vote for him. Perhaps the Log cabinites will sit it out.
Conservatives may have a simple choice: Giuliani or Hillary.
Bingo. Again Mr. Pissant.
And that is what makes Duncan Hunter the most electable candidate on the ticket.
He is solid conservative who is non offensive to moderates and even many liberals.
They may. But not if we derail that train.
Me too. See tag
Please double tinfoil protection and reset all decoder devices. Thank you.
I agree with you about being under fire, however, the fire is coming from radical Islam AND radical moral degeneracy within our own country. Both are equally dangerous to our Republic, in my view. I like Rudy, I really do, but the combination of liberal social views AND a libertine lifestyle will prevent me from supporting him in the primary. (That said, in the General Election -- if he were the nominee -- I would support him.)
How is someone going to become known unless the grassroots pushes them?
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Repub have got to stop destroying our own.
Last time I checked, this was a conservative forum, not a republican one.
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Do you know what the implication of a dem victory and control over all THREE houses would be ?
Hmmm, a two term Republican president and control over both houses by the GOP just like after the last clinton?
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Free republic and talk radio would be shut down !
Really? Then why didn't they do that last time?
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Think about that while you go on and on and on with the Rudy trashing.
I think the owner of FR would understand the results of a dem victory pretty well, would you like to see some of his quotes about Rudy?
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He is a decent guy
To which of his 3 wives?
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and will protect our freedom of speech
Thats the first, what about the second?
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which is will be taken away in 2008 if Hillary is in charge
If she takes away the first amendment, the revolt against the dems will be so large that Republicans wil be in power for ages.
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Nobody's perfect - except Ronald Reagan. Until our next RR comes along, we'll have to make do with what we've got.
i think you are exactly right. those of us who are on this forum, are obviously political junkies who are going to be motivated to vote no matter what. there are plenty of people who vote conservative, but are not your die-hards who will go to the polls no matter what. if/when rudy becomes the candidate and tanks, it will be those conservatives on this forum who will be blamed by the pro-Rudy types for being unappeasable and staying home, when in reality, it will be Rudy's failure to capture the voters who just weren't motivated enough by his candidacy to go to the polls. i am also skeptical that there are enough reagan democrats who will crossover to vote for him. i know everyone has their anecdotal evidence of knowing a dem who would vote for him, but the ones i know WON'T.
You won't have choice Antoninus. If you sit it out should Giuliani get the nomination I can respect your reasoning. I will contend that it is flawed whether I respect it or not.
There will be only two candidates in the race. The Democratic candidate will grab more guns, promote more abortions, promote more of the homosexual agenda, isregard our borders worse and grow a bigger, higher taxing government than the GOP nominee. And these will be the only two in the race.
Hunter can win in the 2008 General. I don't believe Giuliani can because he will not be able to motivate values voters to go to the polls.(The Dole connection)
No one is going to call every voter on election day and say "Do you like Giuliani or Hillary?" If that was how the election worked then Rudy would have a chance. It's not, he doesn't. But if he is the GOP nominee... I will not get Perot burn. I will not look back and think man... if only...
The commandment of Christ to me is to be salt and light. I have to do that in the world I am given.
I think the one good thing about the MSM pushing Rudy on us is that it has been very energizing to those of us on the right. I never did well with authority & someone telling me who I HAVE to vote for just doesn't sit well with me.
I'll be busting my tail - to keep Rudy from winning the primaries. I hope everyone here that doesn't just accept that he's our man - does the same.
GO DUNCAN HUNTER!!!
The Clinton machine never spoon fed me anything. They are traitorous rats, and I believe not a wit of what their acolytes in the MSM have to say. I'm wide awake.
But apparently you are not. You are confusing Hunter for Tancredo. Hunter is not a one issue candidate. His positions can be briefly summarized as this:
Strengthen the Military
Victory over the terrorists
Confronting China's market manipualtions and growing power
A real FENCE at the border, the entire border
More tax relief
Protection of 2nd Amendment Rights
Fair and equitable trade
Peace through Strength
Strict Constructionist judges only
i am skeptical that duncan hunter has the ability to be elected, though he looks good on paper. i don't see anyone being the perfect candidate, but i, too,chafe at being told IN THE PRIMARY SEASON, that i have to vote for someone like rudy giuliani. i would vote for him in the general election but it would be with a barf bag in hand. he is, at best, an extremely flawed candidate, and IMO not remotely our silver bullet against hillary.
A New York gun grabber will lose almost all of the South.
The Republican Party has out liberaled the Democrats.
The slow steady slide this country is making from its foundation is painful to watch and I have watched it for over a half century...
Outrage is what is needed but what we'll have is more bleating. The American sheep have been well conditioned.
"Everytime I make this point. I get Rudy folks asking me 'Yea but will you vote for him if he gets it.' Yes. Yes, I will."
No, No, I won't.
I won't vote for a pro-abort for president. It's not an acceptable choice.
President Hillary, the terrorists, and the bureaucrats hired by the new national health care plan thank you.
Agreed on Newt.
There are more issues than abortion. And more reasons than abortion to not like Rudy.
But, let me ask a question. Actually several.
Is Bush Pro-life? Yes, I would think he's the most pro-life president we've ever had.
Has Bush outlawed abortion? Nope.
Therefore, does the President really matter that much on the issue?
Again, I'm not a Rudy supporter as my posts show, but let's not be unrealistic on that one issue.
Against Hillary? Pulleeeze. BILL Clinton could probably beat Rudy in a few southern states, like Arkansas and Louisiana. Hillary cannot.
I understand sitetest. My comment in 33 applies though.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1781879/posts?page=33#33
If Rudy's the nominee, and running vs. Hillary:
Hillary will be disastorous on all counts. Rudy on some counts, but good or acceptable on others.
Either way, we're going to be living life here in America, and a Rudy Presidency, at the very least, will be tougher on terrorists and easier on my wallet than a Hillary presidency.
So, I'd vote for Giuliani if it came down to it.
Burt,
You are 180degrees turned around and upside down.
Bob Dole was moderate and the base went to sleep. Giuliani is a moderate at best and the base will fall asleep.
Duncan Hunter will have the Social Conservatives out in droves.
No matter WHO the GOP nominee is he WILL be known.
I agree. RR
*** WE NEED TO UNITE ***
WHO? I don't know, but here we are, in the middle of the Internet revolution, and yet, I feel as if someone, somewhere, is pulling the strings to elect a LEFTY 'Republican! (I still don't get used to the label /s).
I believe Guliani's CONSULTANTS team tactic is simply to DIVIDE the Republicans. Attract as many Lefty Republicans by painting Mr. RG as the CHAMPION OF NATIONAL SECURITY!... Just because, yes, He cleaned up N.Y. and acted with leadership on 9/11... Great as those things are, does not make him the Republican Presidential candidate by default...HARDLY!
And I should say, if he were a social-conservative (as DUNCAN is) THEN, I would be pulling hard for him!...But as it is NO WAY IN HELL I WILL VOTE FOR HIM!... Because if he gets elected, well, social-conservatives LOSE AND the LEFT WINS... That simple. All true social, Christian or Moral conservatives should above all, DENY out vote to the Left... And Rudy is the LEFT on social issues, and those are our issues.
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