http://www.spaceweather.com/
X-FLARE: Sunspot 930 has unleashed another big solar flare, an X3-class explosion at 0240 UT on Dec. 13th. In Huirangi, New Zealand, photographer Andy Dodson caught the spot in mid-flare:
Posted on 12/13/2006 9:49:26 AM PST by TheTruthAintPretty
spaceflightnow.com
1929 GMT (2:29 p.m. EST)
In a make-or-break first step in an ambitious mission to re-wire the international space station, the Discovery astronauts today began retracting a huge solar array to clear the way for a complicated electrical upgrade. But the venetian blind-like blankets on one side developed kinks and folds that forced the astronauts to abort the procedure.
That response was so odd and ugly that I had to google it up. I guess that's a reference to "Family Guy", the most unfunny yet most self-hip cartoon ever created?
Here is the GIF of the sun as it happened:
http://www.spaceweather.com/images2006/13dec06/cme_c3_strip.gif
Universal Warming; I need about $3trillion to study this, we are doomed.
X-FLARE: Sunspot 930 has unleashed another big solar flare, an X3-class explosion at 0240 UT on Dec. 13th. In Huirangi, New Zealand, photographer Andy Dodson caught the spot in mid-flare:
It is one that can run purely without electronics, no ECM (Electronic Control Module).
The biggest danger from a massive solar storm or EMP (electromagnetic pulse) is to anything "on the grid" (hooked to power lines, which ultimately are giant antennas). Ever since the advent of the telegraph, solar flares have been playing havoc with long distance wiring - frying insulators, etc. Automotive electronics are far less vulnerable, but not completely so.
"Pure" diesels don't even need spark plugs, much less electronic timing and fuel injection, to operate.
Thank you
A friend and I did a science fair project about solar flares and their effects on the Earth's electromagnetic field. We did this by making a device capable of reading changes in the field by reflecting a light off a mirror. It has a magnet and a hanging mirror and it's pretty cool. We saw a major change one day and looked online, sure enough there had been a massive solar flare. Interesting stuff.
At 93 million miles away, they had exactly 8 minutes to get to that area. Think they made it?
Nifty!
The degree of ionization is not comparable to an atmospheric EMP. But is is always smart to play it safe. We have a large Faraday cage "in case". Inside are 2 Satellite phones with 500 minutes each, data cable, laptop, gps, and assorted electronics. No solar surge or EMP will take this out.
Let your son stay up tonight.
There is an excellent chance of seeing an aurora ( northern lights) around and after midnight as a direct result of the solar flare.
The prediction is for mid latitudes, down as far as N. California and across through NC.
The Geminids meteor shower tonight also.
Not quite....the strongest display could be anytime tonight or tomorrow night (or occur during the day tomorrow.)
All other things being equal, midnight in a given location would be the best time, but if the arrival of the CME impact doesn't cooperate, the only time the aurora is visible in, say, North Carolina (if it is) could be between 3 and 3:30AM tomorrow morning, or 7PM tomorrow night, etc. It's impossible to predict with precision.
I think they were bedded down and placed in those protective areas preemptively as they had noticed Sol's reluctance to be helpful for the mission earlier. =)
Now, if they were outside, I'd be highly doubtful of it, but then I don't know what kind of rads come out of an X3 flare. I intend to look it up now.
From my understanding, the actual solar belch (the charged particles in a CME), while still extremely fast, travel less than 6 million MPH, so we usually have over 15 hrs.
Back in 2003 we dodged a bullet - the CME was not aimed straight at us, and the magnetic polarity was opposite of the earth. The chances of everything coming together at once for "the perfect solar storm" are relatively small, but not non-existent.
Here is the notice.. do as you wish.
Don't forget the Gemininds.
VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY
MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar Region 930
was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to produce
periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral storm activity
on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The most intense phase
of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact, which is
currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14 December).
The moon will begin to impinge on observations after it rises sometime after
local midnight, so the best observations (if possible) will occur prior to
and near local midnight when the moon is still below the horizon.
This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on
15 December. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For
updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
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