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(Mark) Kennedy Surging (In Minnesota)
Powerline Blog ^ | 26 October 2006 | John Hinderaker

Posted on 10/26/2006 2:25:47 PM PDT by shrinkermd

Last Friday, we posted Mark Kennedy's new television ad, which takes the Iraq war head-on. We expected it to be effective, and it has been. The Kennedy campaign has just finished its latest round of polling, and the new ad, combined with Kennedy's matchless work ethic and the Republican resurgence that we are seeing over most of the country, has sliced Democrat Amy Klobuchar's lead in half. Mark is now within single digits and closing fast.

One more thought: yesterday was the fourth anniversary of the Wellstone plane crash that, together with his subsequent funeral, was one of the decisive events in the 2002 campaign. Recall how much changed after that tragic accident, which happened just eleven days before the election. We are now twelve days out from November 7. Momentum is flowing in the right direction, and there is plenty of time for Mark and other Republican candidates to close gaps and cement leads.

Newt Gingrich writes about the shifting political winds:

If you're hearing about this shift in momentum for the first time, don't worry. You're not alone. New York Post columnist John Podhoretz thinks it may have something to do with the difference between that he calls "Mainstream Media Time" and "Blog Time." Mainstream Media Time is slow and still clings to the conventional wisdom (or is it a hope?) that the 2006 elections are a foregone conclusion of Republican defeat.

Blog Time is fast -- it moves at the speed of the Internet. It started noticing the momentum shift to Republicans earlier this week.

Which will be proven right is anyone's bet. But my money is on Blog Time.

If you haven't yet contributed to Mark Kennedy's campaign--or even if you have--please consider going here to make a donation. The campaign wants to do a final ad buy to help put Mark over the top. Please help!


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Minnesota
KEYWORDS: a; chance; kennedy; mark
This better news than I expected. It may be a variant of the "law of paradoxical intent." This means when everyone is just sure of something it does not happen that way.

It is often seen in investing where a stock goes on a parabolic track upwards, stalls and then collapses. One explanation is everyone who has bought has bought and the least downwards move panics the greedy.

Similarly, I cannot see how anyone potentially in favor of Klobuchar has not already chosen her; hence, any movement for her must be retrogressive.

Klobuchar has a vapid, almost fatuous demeanor that does not wear well.

1 posted on 10/26/2006 2:25:48 PM PDT by shrinkermd
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To: shrinkermd

Folks from that part of the country value honesty. I didn't think Kennedy's ad would hurt him and it looks like it hasn't.


2 posted on 10/26/2006 2:27:16 PM PDT by Bahbah (Shalit, Goldwasser and Regev, we are praying for you)
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To: shrinkermd
...is now within single digits ...

Why is this not comforting to me? (no longer in the teens)

3 posted on 10/26/2006 2:28:18 PM PDT by 69ConvertibleFirebird (Never argue with an idiot. They drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.)
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To: shrinkermd

One of the things the Mn Bloggers have been saying for months is that Kennedy needed to make a stark contrast between him and Amy K obvious. His latest Iraq ad may finally be doing that. Here is hoping.

But be prepared. There will be at least 1 Star Trib poll out there between now and election day which will have Amy K winning it in a landslide. They do the same crap ever weekend before the elections


4 posted on 10/26/2006 2:28:52 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (EeevilCon, Snowflake, Conservative Fundamentalist Gun Owning Bush Bot Dittohead reporting for duty!)
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To: 69ConvertibleFirebird

This is actually good news. Since the dominate Media culture in MN is strongly Leftists the undecided tend to break to the R canidate.


5 posted on 10/26/2006 2:30:48 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (EeevilCon, Snowflake, Conservative Fundamentalist Gun Owning Bush Bot Dittohead reporting for duty!)
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To: MNJohnnie

Hot Damn and Whoptee Do! Now people can see Nationally what a dingbat Amy is! :-) (Id say see ya on election day, but I dont know where ya vote ;-) LOL..


6 posted on 10/26/2006 2:31:47 PM PDT by MagUSNRET
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To: MagUSNRET
I purposely moved to John Klein's district so I could live in one of the reddest parts of the this depressingly Blue state.
7 posted on 10/26/2006 2:33:14 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (EeevilCon, Snowflake, Conservative Fundamentalist Gun Owning Bush Bot Dittohead reporting for duty!)
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To: shrinkermd

Why isn`t Kennedy way ahead? She is a real lightweight?


8 posted on 10/26/2006 2:34:01 PM PDT by bybybill (`IF TH E RATS WIN, WE LOSE)
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To: MNJohnnie

Im in his district too Hmmmmmmmmmm ;-) LOL


9 posted on 10/26/2006 2:34:50 PM PDT by MagUSNRET
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To: shrinkermd

"Klobuchar has a vapid, almost fatuous demeanor that does not wear well."

I couldn't agree more! I can't even watch her ads. Kennedy has been such a decent and hardworking congressman for the 6th.


10 posted on 10/26/2006 2:35:25 PM PDT by Minn. 4 Bush
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To: Minn. 4 Bush

Mark Kennedy came to my door one Saturday morning, and we had a very lovely chat--albeit brief..Very nice man, in my opinion.


11 posted on 10/26/2006 2:36:45 PM PDT by MagUSNRET
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To: MagUSNRET

I've had a couple conversations with him and he is truly a nice guy. He is known in the congress for the guy who works his tail off. I hope he can pull this off!


12 posted on 10/26/2006 2:40:42 PM PDT by Minn. 4 Bush
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To: MNJohnnie

It is a bluer state, but isn't Minnesota more socially conservative than other blue states?

And best to Kennedy. It's interesting that, while Amy still has the lead, the Red Star Tribune's numbers have her lead much larger. Do they just poll on the streets outside their interurban offices?


13 posted on 10/26/2006 2:41:48 PM PDT by Lexinom (www.VoteYesForLife.com -- the only chance?)
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To: MagUSNRET

Can you tell me WHY I see any of that lunatic Rowley's yard signs.

I am curious. Isn't it illegal for them to put them on public land? I keep seeing Rowley or Hatch signs up on public land like parks or next to corporately owned businesses. For example they have been put on Public Park land in a number of places in Shakopee.

Know if there is anyone I can complain to on that?


14 posted on 10/26/2006 2:42:22 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (EeevilCon, Snowflake, Conservative Fundamentalist Gun Owning Bush Bot Dittohead reporting for duty!)
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To: Lexinom
Yes, MN has one of the largest contrentration of socially Conservative gun owning blue collar Dems. Pity so many of them are stuck on the "Dad was a Democrat" mindset. They just let their Union do their thinking. Just cannot seem to grasp this is NOT the Pro American DFL party of the 1950s any more.
15 posted on 10/26/2006 2:47:02 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (EeevilCon, Snowflake, Conservative Fundamentalist Gun Owning Bush Bot Dittohead reporting for duty!)
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To: MNJohnnie

For the record, I have not seen ONE Rowley sign in my South East Suburb :-) THAT pleases me emmensly!


16 posted on 10/26/2006 2:55:03 PM PDT by MagUSNRET
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To: MagUSNRET

Im off to the Great Ones thread...laters all :-)


17 posted on 10/26/2006 2:56:59 PM PDT by MagUSNRET
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To: MagUSNRET

EXCELLENT! Frankly the only reason I think I see them is they are being put where ever the Campaign activists think they can get aways with it.


18 posted on 10/26/2006 2:59:00 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (EeevilCon, Snowflake, Conservative Fundamentalist Gun Owning Bush Bot Dittohead reporting for duty!)
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To: Lexinom

>>>Red Star Tribune's numbers have her lead much larger. Do they just poll on the streets outside their interurban offices?

I think they just poll their editorial staff.


19 posted on 10/26/2006 2:59:17 PM PDT by Keith in Iowa (Liberals: People whose relationship to reality appears to be somewhat tenuous.)
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To: shrinkermd
Money is still the "Mother's Milk of Politics". Here's the FEC Filings for both candidates a/o Sep. 30, '06 and it's good news for Kennedy. Any Pubbie who raises the most money is in good shape because the GOP has a superior GOTV effort.

KENNEDY - Raised: $9,036,645 On Hand: $2,067,625
KLOBUCHAR - Raised: $7,922,161 On Hand: $2,231,830

Kennedy raised a little over $1 million more than Klobuchar. But, he has spent more than her. They both have about $2 mill to finish the race. If he plays his cards right, WE CAN STEAL THIS SEAT FROM THE DEM COLUMN.
20 posted on 10/26/2006 2:59:28 PM PDT by no dems (I'll take a moral Mormon over a demonic Democrat or repugnant RINO anyday.)
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To: Minn. 4 Bush

To me, Klobuchar looks like a tired, unhappy, old hippie whom life has passed her by.


21 posted on 10/26/2006 3:00:49 PM PDT by no dems (I'll take a moral Mormon over a demonic Democrat or repugnant RINO anyday.)
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To: no dems
I still don't think the voters know who Mark Kennedy is and what he stands for. Klobuchar is way ahead because the women vote their sex when nothing else is known. Give those women a chance on the social issues and they will abandon her big time.

I also think Kennedy was in error to distance himself from President Bush. He looked weak in doing so. He is remedying this, but he should stress the need to protect our citizens above and beyond politically correct slogans.
22 posted on 10/26/2006 3:36:36 PM PDT by shrinkermd
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To: shrinkermd

I love it when the pendulum begins its swing!

The evil hand of the dastardly Rove . . .


23 posted on 10/26/2006 3:37:39 PM PDT by NaughtiusMaximus (Let's all be Magnificent Bastards. Turn out those Republican votes!)
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To: 69ConvertibleFirebird
Polls systematically under count Republican Support. The Polls are saying it is now a tie.

Why is this not comforting to me? (no longer in the teens)

24 posted on 10/26/2006 3:53:09 PM PDT by DManA
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To: MNJohnnie
Know if there is anyone I can complain to on that?

If the signs are on city land, complain to the city until they squeal.

25 posted on 10/26/2006 6:24:15 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Nobody sees me leave.)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

Yes and it if its not city land, you can complain to the county or if they are on state or federal interstates, you can complain to the Department of Transportation. In WA state, they make all candidates (generally more enforced against R candidates) remove them from public roadways or medians because of visability.


26 posted on 10/26/2006 6:41:12 PM PDT by Abram
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To: 69ConvertibleFirebird

I agree, I thought Kennedy was a real heavy weight and he was going to pick up this seat easily. I am disappointed that there has not been more coverage of this race or focus, but maybe I was mistaken. I was looking forward in seeing a conservative or at least a Republican Senator Kennedy.


27 posted on 10/26/2006 6:42:25 PM PDT by Abram
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To: DManA

I actually hear tonight that Mark's internal polls have him down 4%. He is closing the gap FAST! It will all come down to GOTV efforts!


28 posted on 10/26/2006 7:27:17 PM PDT by mn-bush-man
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To: shrinkermd

Kennedy Surging [Mark Kennedy (R-MN) looking stronger to win Senate Seat?]
Powerline ^ | 10/26/2006 | John Hinderaker

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1726492/posts
Posted on 10/26/2006 3:17:19 PM CDT by Uncledave

:-)


29 posted on 10/26/2006 9:47:18 PM PDT by Valin (http://www.irey.com/)
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To: no dems

That's because she is.


30 posted on 10/26/2006 9:49:31 PM PDT by Valin (http://www.irey.com/)
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To: MagUSNRET

I've not seen any in the north metro either. Plenty of Hatch and Klobuchar, though.


31 posted on 10/26/2006 10:38:24 PM PDT by FarRightFanatic
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To: shrinkermd
Tuesday's polling (from RealClearPolitics)

Minnesota Senate Race SurveyUSA
10/21 - 10/23
606 LV
Kennedy (R) 39%
Klobuchar (D) 55%

Klobuchar +16.0%

I'm not sure that I would call that single digits. But, I went to public schools so I may be wrong. They taught us that 2 + 2 = 4 as well.

32 posted on 10/27/2006 5:59:49 AM PDT by 69ConvertibleFirebird (Never argue with an idiot. They drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.)
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