Posted on 10/20/2006 6:54:11 AM PDT by Ravi
INDIANAPOLIS - Democratic Rep. Julia Carson was in a close race three weeks before Election Day with an underfunded Republican challenger who has raised questions about her years of health problems, according to a new poll.
Carson, seeking her sixth term in the 7th District that includes most of Indianapolis, was the pick of 42 percent of those survey, but Republican Eric Dickerson had the support of 45 percent in the poll released Thursday by television station WTHR.
Thirteen percent said they were undecided or would vote for someone else. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at fortwayne.com ...
Good news.
I would so love to see Carson go down.
Indeed!
I hope we finally win in her dist, and take her seat away.
Another sign of doom for the GOP.
>>>I guess the democrats had better start digging up some dirt on his opponent
Heh... they really tried, but it backfired on Carson I think.
18 days left and I'm really feeling good. Victory is not certain but I think there is reason to be optimistic. God bless everyone in Indiana. You're making up for our mistakes in Maine.
Julia Carson is one of the DUMBEST in Congress.
No no no and no, there are no democrats in trouble, only Republicans. Republicans have already lost. No need to go to the polls and heck, you weren't going anyway if you were a conservative. You are angered by Foley beyond all reason. As for the rest of you, you now realize the Iraq is Vietnam and we are in the Great Depression Part II because there is a war on the middle class. So please, stop posting this fantasy about Republicans leading in any polls anywhere and pay the proper respect to Speaker Pelosi.
The polls are bogus---because they are all off by at least five in the direction of the Dem. This Carson person is toast. Another GOP pickup.
Eric Dickerson? Nahh...the running back?
Never heard of him.....is he black?
With outside shots in PA (Murtha) and WV (Mollahan) and maybe the most outside shot in Minnesota for Fine over Ellison (D-CAIR, Nation of Islam) but that is one rat infested district.
"Never heard of him.....is he black?"
Yes. He started out as a running back for the Rams before finishing up with the Indianapolis Colts.
Was a graduate from SMU.
Julia Carson is a nice lady, but she is not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Indiana can do better.
I've been guestimating on 12 GOP seats lost. Probably a few in the Northeast. I hear Foley's seat has become competitive, that's good. I read at free republic, forget the thread, that a gop congressman in Indiana was in trouble. The their is mess in Ohio and Ney's seat. Delay's seat. But if the GOP does pickup a few seats as you say, they should maintain control of the House.
I don't think Mollohan's seat is an outside shot at all. Republicans may actually pick up 4 or 5 Democrat seats in this election. Still possible for the Dems to pick up 20+ of ours though. But the steeper we can make that hill, the better. It really doesn't look like a huge Democrat wave, at any rate, or people like Julia Carson would not be in trouble.
I've been at net loss of 8 for a long time, I may revise it down to net loss 5 soon, if things hold up.
I've moved Reynolds (NY) back to retain R from goner.
I've moved the Foley seat from D to toss up.
Basically, I don't see many incumbents losing.
I do give dems an edge in the open seats like the ones in CO-7, and that seat in Iowa Nussle has vacated (that's a loss of 2 right there). And most of the Scandal seats might go the Dems way (Shewood in PA, Delays old seat, Taylor in NC, possibly Ney's in Ohio but that's not for sure).
I also know the Dems will throw everything they can into destroying Curt Weldon (PA) but he deserves our support.
If anyone every doubted how sick the liberals are this campaign season should have opened their eyes. Dirty trick after dirty trick. Maybe at first the Foley scandel turned off the base. But the democrats always overplay their hand. I think the tide has turned and our base is ready to go.
In Ohio we are ahead of our 2004 pace when it comes to GOTV phone calls.
That is why I'm not panicking over the house seats here.
Is this really Eric Dickerson? Wow, that's something.
Foley's seat ONLY has a problem because now the GOP has to put people outside every polling place with instructions to vote for Foley and they will thereby elect the R. That's a hold. We are seeing Hostetler, Chacoba, and Sodrel's seats all very close now, and the Rs will pull those out.
Northrup is no longer in trouble.
We can lose 2-3 and still GAIN a seat.
Inormally lurk but this is my district here in Indianapolis. This Eric Dickerson is not the running back. He is a businessman, former Marine, conservative and black. Normally Julia can throw in the race card and win easily but not this time! What was interesting in the poll is that 85% of those surveyed live in the heavily-Democrat Center Township which is within the city limits. The rest of the district is moderately-heavily Republican (part of Dan Burton's old district). So this looks very good and I heard Eric on radio this morning saying the New York Time did a poll in mid-September showing the race tied.
Yesterday on hannity's show I heard Bill Mc something say there were NO volunteers in OHIO...The Pubs had given up....is that not true? Praying for a Blackwell win!!
I'm not sure. Ijust saw the name and asked the question if it's the same guy.
Thanks for the pic! Eric is a really good guy and would be a very welcome change here.
"Thank you for the information. I get my news these days from Rush, Hannity, Newsmax and Free Republic. Once and a while the Wall St. Journal and National Review. There is absolutely no reason to watch or read the liberal media."
You, and millions like you (including me), are why there is a chance Nov. 7 will be a big surprise. So many conservatives have just dropped off the traditional radar.
On Saturday 10/7 Ohio Republican volunteers made over 101,000 phone calls. That is a number we did not hit in 2004 until the Saturday before the election.
Saturday 10/14 there were county wide literature drops in all 88 counties.
This Saturday, we will suprass the number of calls made on 10/7.
This is why Rove is smiling.
There may be no Democrat volunteers. I haven't seen any.
Then why did Bill from WRKC say just the opposite!!! He's a conservative!
I have no idea.
Maybe you misheard him.
No I didn't mishear him....I was SHOCKED!! What the heck is his name? Bill.....
October 20, 2006
Will Any Dem Seats Fall in the House?
So much of the focus this cycle has been on Republican seats in play. On RCP's list of the most likely House seats to switch parties, the first Dem seat doesn't appear until #33 with Melissa Bean in Illinois 8. But there is a basket of five seats Republicans are looking at for possible pickups (IL-8, GA-8, GA-12, VT-AL, and IA-3) and the odds would suggest that the GOP may be able to pick up one of these five. The two seats in Georgia, helped by a strong Sonny Perdue at the top of the ticket, are generally thought to offer Republicans their best hope for a pickup.
Today the Indianapolis Star has a front page story which is extremely interesting given how much of a battleground Indiana has become because of the three Republican districts in play (IN-2, IN-8, and IN-9).
A new poll shows Democratic U.S. Rep. Julia Carson narrowly trailing Republican Eric Dickerson -- an outcome that, if it holds on Election Day, would be one of the biggest upsets in Indiana politics.
Dickerson led Carson 45 percent to 42 percent in the poll conducted for WTHR (Channel 13), The Indianapolis Star's news-gathering partner.....The WTHR poll -- conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, and based on responses of 468 likely voters in the 7th Congressional District -- was startling, though, particularly in the wake of a poll of 400 likely voters, taken in September for WISH (Channel 8), that showed Carson with a lead of 20 percentage points. WTHR reported its poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Dickerson, a former auto dealer, has run his race largely on his own. He beat the Republican Party's endorsed candidate in the primary and has run his campaign with virtually no state or national support since.
"It's just another confirmation that our campaign is very, very serious and we do intend to win this race," Dickerson told WTHR.
Indiana 7 is a reasonably secure Democratic district, giving 58% for Kerry in 2004 and 55% for Gore in 2004. But Carson has had some serious health issues and she's also been unable to get over 55% of the vote since the seat was redistricted in 2002 making it more attractive to Republican candidates.
We're skeptical just how much this seat may really be in play, but this is certainly a race we are going to keep an eye on.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/blog/2006/10/will_any_dem_seats_fall_in_the.html
Wonder if the RNC is funding the Pub? Will anyone in the Gop establishment go campaigning there?
Here's the article, Rush even read it on the air, and I'm close enough to this story to verify the veracity of it.
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/10/are_republican.html
Also: it is probably true that we have half the volunteers of '04 doing double the work, so far.
If you ask me, everyone in the GOP establishment should stay away. He is drawing voters who are traditionally democrats, and if anyone from the GOP shows up, they might reconsider their vote for him.
Thank you for the heads up.
You're absolutely right. The county and state GOP didn't support Eric in the primary so he's better off without them.
Good call Miss Marple.
I don't think this is the running back Erik Dickerson. This one owns a car dealership.
>>Wonder if the RNC is funding the Pub? Will anyone in the Gop establishment go campaigning there?
No, and no.
Ping. This poll is kinda surprising. I think the last polling iteration in this CD was Research 2000 with Carson 55, Dickerson 35. Selzer&Co. is not a highly rated firm in my book, but I think this means that this seat needs to be put back on the list somewhere.
More on Mr. Dickerson. The good news is that he is a Black Republican. ;-D
http://www.ericdickersonforcongress.com/
I had checked out Eric Dickerson (IIRC he's got an auto dealership and was never an NFL runningback : ) a few months ago, and thought he would have great potential if the district wasn't so gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats. I am wary of polls showing Julia Carson losing, since we went through this same thing in 2002 and 2004 and she ended up winning rather comfortably. Still, there must be something to this, given that several groups that have been quite bullish on the Democrats winning everywhere had called this race a "lean Dem" (instead of likely Dem or safe Dem) even before this poll.
If the GOP manages to control both houses of the IN legislature and the governorship after the 2010 election, it would be rather easy for them to split Indianapolis into two urban-suburban districts. They could keep almost all of the city's black population together in a district that also includes the very Republican suburbs, and combine white parts of the city with other suburbs, and end up with two districts that would have given President Bush between 55%-60% in 2004. If Dickerson can come close to beating Carson in a 42% Bush CD, he would wallop her in a 55% Bush CD.
My greatest skepticism arises from the fact that as of Sept 30 Dickerson had raised only $47,684 and had just $21,824 cash on hand. Dickerson's first radio ads did not begin until Oct 18, so it's a bit of an enigma how he built up even the name recognition to poll that well. I think it's more likely that this poll is off than that Dickerson is in the lead, but I've added IN-07 to my list anyhow.
If the poll is correct and 49% of voters disapprove of Carson, then Dickerson may indeed be at 45% merely by being the other guy. Plus, being a car dealer, he's probably been running TV ads in the district for many years, so his name ID was probably at a respectable level even before the race began.
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