A war against Intelligence

San Fran Chonicle ^ | 09/27/2006 | Robert Scheer

[LM_Guy]

YOU WOULD think that a consensus report from all 16 U.S. intelligence services concluding that he has blown the "war on terror" would be a really big deal to the president. But that assumes that George W. Bush values intelligence.

Clearly, he does not. So the news that a 2006 National Intelligence Estimate concludes the threat of terror against the United States has increased since 9/11, largely thanks to his irrational invasion of Iraq, has not disturbed Bush's branded "what, me worry'' countenance.

Instead, predictably, the administration's response to the leaked conclusions of the shared assessments of both civilian and military intelligence agencies was the same old historically ignorant claptrap that leaves U.S. policies completely out of the equation.

"Their hatred for freedom and liberty did not develop overnight," said White House spokesman Peter Watkins. "Those seeds were planted decades ago."

What seeds are those? It was "decades ago" that the CIA encouraged Muslim fanatics worldwide to go to Afghanistan to fight a holy war against a secular regime backed by the Russians. The end result of that engagement was -- after the Russian troop withdrawal and the consequent U.S. attention deficit -- a devolution into civil war, warlordism, and, eventually, the takeover of the country by Osama bin Laden's friends, the religiously extreme and oppressive Taliban. Seem familiar?

It should: The same deadly process has been taking place under Bush's watch in Iraq since our idiotic 2003 invasion.

If the Bush administration were serious about protecting us from terrorist attacks, it would end the ineffectual "war on terror" model and instead treat terrorism as a pathology that needs to be clinically and relentlessly excised. If terror groups such as al Qaeda are a cancer in the world's body politic, as the intelligence estimate suggests, then the goal should be....

[LM_Guy]

More from the LEFT COAST !!

[Bringbackthedraft]

You can say that again. I'm here visiting in SF, even my former conservative friends have been changed. Its still peace and love here.

[gunnedah]

Truth be known, Bin Laden is probably the "Ghost" writer of this article.

[weegee]

"a 2006 National Intelligence Estimate concludes the threat of terror against the United States has increased since 9/11"

The anthrax attack was the only successful attack of note against the US since 9-11 (and happened within days of the first event).

While there have been further attempts, they have been thwarted.

This war is NOT blown. The Democrats' chances at the ballot box in a fair election HAVE BEEN BLOWN.

[BelegStrongbow]

Of course, if a single allegation in this article were true, then the President would be responding. But, as the whole thing is built on a single sentence which is not borne out by the rest of the report, there's only reason for continuing to pound the enemy.

Schneer must want to be part of that enemy. What I want to see is a few arrests for treason among the 'press corps'.

[Pete]

Clearly, he does not. So the news that a 2006 National Intelligence Estimate concludes the threat of terror against the United States has increased since 9/11, largely thanks to his irrational invasion of Iraq, has not disturbed Bush's branded "what, me worry'' countenance.

I don't know what report this guy was reading but it wasn't the one released yesterday.

[MNJohnnie]

Guess this moron did not bother to actually read the report before writing his coloumn. He got everything WRONG

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Snip

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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1708787/posts


Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate .Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States. dated April 2006

Key Judgments

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida, could erode support for the jihadists. We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti- American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

• We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the Homeland.

• The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests. Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

• The Iraq conflict has become the .cause celebre. for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight. We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.

• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq .jihad;. (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims.all of which jihadists exploit. Concomitant vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal of the jihadists. radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of moderation, and criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens. •

The jihadists. greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution.an ultra-conservative interpretation of shari.a-based governance spanning the Muslim world.is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists. propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade.

• Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism. This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.

• Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders. If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit.

Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role.

• The loss of key leaders, particularly Usama Bin Ladin, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and disagreements. We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qa.ida.

• Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.

• The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qa.ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations. Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al- Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.

• We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the Homeland than does al- Qa.ida but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies and to US interests abroad. The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between local regime targets and regional or global ones. We judge that most jihadist groups.both well-known and newly formed.will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics.

• CBRN capabilities will continue to be sought by jihadist groups. While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists.

Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.

• We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the Internet to communicate

[weegee]

Start with those who are embedding themselves with Al Qaida (and that is happening).

[tx_eggman]

BARF alert for crap sakes, BARF alert

[RoadTest]

Was this article written by Dave Barry? Most of his articles are funnier, but this one does O.K., too.

[camle]

you can let the hornets continue to build thier nests nad to grown and to threaten you. Sooner or later their stings will cause you to knock the nest down.

it is no surprise that the hornets will become more active when you do so, so should you continue to let them get stronger?

[<1/1,000,000th%]

Barf alert?

[LIConFem]

These must be the latest Lib/Dem talking points. I heard the same rant yesterday, in a taxi on my way home from work.

[soxfan]

Merely stating that the Iraq War fueled terrorism, and using that as a basis for decision-making about our Nation's future course of action, would be as ridiculous as someone declaring in May 1945 that our World War II Naval campaign in the Pacific against the Japanese was a failure, in and of itself, because it fueled the recruitment and training of thousands of young Japanese suicide bombers. As we got closer to the Japanese homeland, and annihilated their remaining carriers and attrited their trained pilots, it is certainly true, the Japanese became much more desperate, and devastating, with respect to casualties they inflicted upon Naval personnel and ships. But one would hardly have plucked that out of any additional context to make policy decisions - at least, we can all be thankful they didn't.

[dirtboy]

YOU WOULD think that a consensus report from all 16 U.S. intelligence services concluding that he has blown the "war on terror" would be a really big deal to the president.

YOU WOULD think that liberal wingnuts would not be stupid enough to base their lies on not revealing the entire truth when the entire truth has already been revealed. But, then again, that is why they keep losing elections - they have been unable to counter the rise of the right-wing media, because they cannot lie by omission the way they are used to.

[facedown]

Bob Scheer is a known quantity.

[Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek]

"But that assumes that George W. Bush values intelligence.

Clearly, he does not."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
No, it assumes that Bush read the whole report, not just the carefully harvested details that, in isolation, could be leaked and spun as 'proving' the point this fellow wants to make.

I wonder what this guy thinks of Clinton, who notoriously refused to meet with his CIA director throughout his tenure in Motel 1600. Now THERE was someone who didn't care about intelligence (since he was always making up the truth as he went along anyway, so why ask someone else). The difference between sociopaths and solipsists is sometimes hard to detect.

[MNJohnnie]

E-mail: rscheer@truthdig.com.

Email address for this moron. Let him know how stupid he is in posting this column without even bothering to actually READ what he supposedly was writing about.

[richardtavor]

"Clearly, he does not. So the news that a 2006 National Intelligence Estimate concludes the threat of terror against the United States has increased since 9/11, largely thanks to his irrational invasion of Iraq, has not disturbed Bush's branded "what, me worry'' countenance."

Casaulties in WWII were highest just before Germany surrendered, and just before Japan surrendered. These fools have no understanding of history or War. As most Democrats, they want to make the War on Terror a legal issue....

[Zack Nguyen]

The end result of that engagement was -- after the Russian troop withdrawal and the consequent U.S. attention deficit -- a devolution into civil war, warlordism, and, eventually, the takeover of the country by Osama bin Laden's friends, the religiously extreme and oppressive Taliban.

I would suggest that, had we stayed in Afghanistan after the USSR pulled out and helped set up a government, leftists like Mr. Scheer would have been wailing that we are "imperialists running all over the world telling developing countries what to do" or something to that effect. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

[Holicheese]

I think that "they" really believe that a guy named Akmed was deciding what he wanted to do with his life. He was thinking it was a toss up between goat herder and jihadist. But that DAMN Bush, by invading Iraq just pushed poor Akmed over the edge and pushed him into becoming a terrorist.

[Richard Axtell]

Scheer merde. The NIE says exactly the opposite of what this Cryptofascistmarxist says it says. Fool.

[Richard Axtell]

By the way, Scheer is the fool. LM Guy is a stand up Guy!

[Enchante]

Robert Sneer, er, Scheer is a stooge of the internationalist America-hating left that still believes that North Korea and Cuba are the vanguard of the "revolution" -- these clowns long for Islamo-fascists to weaken the west enough so that the glorious left can sweep in and take over. Of course, they would be among the first to be rounded up and exterminated if the Islamo-fascists take over a country.

Nothing Scheer writes is actually aimed at strengthening US security, he just hopes that undermining the Bush administration will advance the agenda of the depraved and psychotic left.

[talleyman]

It's a shame he couldn't work in a few more ad hominem attacks....

[deathrace2000]

I'm against Intelligence...

[Steel Wolf]

It's not a condemnation of the GWOT, per se, but it's not exactly a ringing endorsement of our efforts or prospects for success, either.

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qaida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qaida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the homeland and U.S. interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement, which includes al-Qaida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups and emerging networks and cells, is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

It is good news that al-Qa'ida is on the ropes. Their leadership is on the run, and scattered. Unfortunately, it appears that the hydra has more than one head.

-- Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

When you hear talk about the 'global jihad' as an organization, it's wrong. It's more like a constellation of like minded persons spread throughout the world. There's no way to tally them overall, since there's no 'global jihad' ID card or criteria for qualifying. They're considered part of the same threat only in that they have the potential and possibly inclination to turn violent for the same root causes.

-- If this trend continues, threats to U.S. interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

Keeping tabs on that type of problem is a staggering task, from both a law enforcement and intelligence perspective. The 'good guys needed to track bad guys' ratio is huge, and will quickly outpace our available resources. This is already happening in the U.K.

-- Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim-majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qaida, could erode support for the jihadists.

Translation: All politics is local. The way to win the GWOT is to fix the problems, real or perceived, in the Mulsim communities. Those communities will then be far less inclined to incubate jihadist philosophy.

We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

The real threat of AQ inspired homegrown terrorists is that they come out of nowhere, but have access to expertise and tactics, via the internet, that let's them coalesce quickly and quietly. Intelligence agencies try to find pieces of certain puzzles, not new puzzles entirely. Law enforcement can deter crime, but it can't prevent it, so they're basically stuck in a reactive posture until they have good reason to believe a crime happened, or is about to.

-- We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to U.S. counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the homeland.

Translation: The more practice we give them against our CT efforts, the more sophisticated they'll become, in an evolutionary "survival of the fittest" manner.

[Steel Wolf]

Casaulties in WWII were highest just before Germany surrendered, and just before Japan surrendered. These fools have no understanding of history or War. As most Democrats, they want to make the War on Terror a legal issue....

The reason that analogy fails is that it's a misnomer. We call it a global war on terror, but it's actually a global counterinsurgency. Comparing the GWOT to a conventional war is as apt as comparing it to golf. The metaphor only stretches so far.

[MNJohnnie]

SW, You need to put the event in context. 1 line of the report was leaked to the NY Times. The Democrats spun that 1 line as being a complete vindication of their Do Nothing position on Terrorism. The report does no such thing. This report isn't SUPPOSE to be a "ringing endorsement" of our efforts. It is a serious assessment of the progress against a clever and dangerous foe. Some crap is going better then others. Well DUH!

Always amazes me that Americans, who blithely accept such grotesque levels of incompetence in their politicians, their "news media", their Government Agencies etc etc etc seem to think a War can be run efficiently and effortless.

[progressoverpeace]

Now the Democrats are trying to make arguments based on the OPINIONS of the various security services (the same ones that have been roundly castigated for not even getting basic FACTS correct, let alone predictions of the future).

I find it very odd that a paper of OPINION is being addressed as though it "PROVES" this or that. The NIE, in the part that's being debated, is nothing but an OPINION piece, and offers no proof other than the CONJECTURES of various analysts.

I cannot reconcile the Democrats' (once again strained) logic that the NIE proves anything. Democrats seem to have a problem confusing opinion and fact.

It's time that someone told the Democrats to take their retarded ideas and stop bothering the adults.

[ozzymandus]

Didn't this commie get fired recently?

[Steel Wolf]

SW, You need to put the event in context.

The context of the leak? I don't really care about political games, I care about the war on terror. If the Administration was serious about plugging leaks, they'd propose legislation to force reporters to reveal their classified sources. They don't run a tight ship, so they can deal with the leaks until such time as they care to plug them.

That's a problem, but the content of the report, read neutrally and in context, is the real problem. Despite who you care to blame for it, it's pretty grim stuff.

Always amazes me that Americans, who blithely accept such grotesque levels of incompetence in their politicians, their "news media", their Government Agencies etc etc etc seem to think a War can be run efficiently and effortless.

Speak for yourself. If I see things not going right, I'm going to point it out. I don't pay taxes or vote in order to blithely accept failure.

[barbmill25]

Me Too. Off with their heads!

[barbmill25]

"Didn't this commie get fired recently?"

Wow! You can fire these people? Cool

[My2Cents]

Has Sheer even read the full report? I understand it hasn't yet been released.

[progressoverpeace]

Everybody knows what drives recruitment among the Islamic savages: Signs of weakness from non-muslims.

Savage Islam is gaining popularity because:
1) Bush did not nuke anyone.
2) Bush refuses to bring the rules of engagement to a proper set - such as the rules used by the Allies in WWII
3) Bush goes out of his way to not kill civilians.

Muslims look at these actions (or inactions) and realize that they (the general muslim population) have nothing to fear from war with the US, since the US refuses to firebomb cities, kill families of terrorists, ...

Just like the population in Lebanon, which realized that Israel was not going after them - they understood that they had nothing to fear from war with Israel.

The general world muslim population feels the same way about the US - they do NOT fear being attacked by the US, and if they are, the civilians do not fear being targeted.

All of this weakness, and our refusal to bring MASSIVE PAIN to the CIVILIANS who support the terrorists, brings more poeple into the fold of savage, enemy-to-progress Islam.

No one needs any intelligence agency to understand this simple truth.

[progressoverpeace]

P.S. Bush's resistance to fighting this war with the appropriate rules of engagement is certainly a fault of his, but those to the left of Bush would be FAR, FAR worse.

McCain's notion of how war is fought would certainly doom the West, while the Democrats ideas of burying their heads in the sand would be even worse.

Bush's main problem is that he does not understand that giving gifts is a cultural-specific exercise (Bush gave Arabs the gift of Iraq - which they seem to be refusing).

While gift-giving may engender good will in the West, it does not have the same effect in the Muslim world. Israel's 60 years of giving gifts to Arabs, and being attacked for it, should have proven this to all people with IQ's north of 86.

[Logophile]

YOU WOULD think that a consensus report from all 16 U.S. intelligence services concluding that he has blown the "war on terror" would be a really big deal to the president.

Would those be the same intelligence services that assured the President that Saddam was developing weapons of mass destruction? (I see to recall the phrase "slam dunk" in this connection.)

[attiladhun2]

Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq .jihad;. (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims.all of which jihadists exploit.

I would add (5) the constant Bush and USA-bashing done by the Western media, (6) constant Bush and USA-bashing done by the Democrat Party, (7) the encouragement given by the Western media's reporting of the war on terror will cause the USA and coalition forces to withdraw from Iraq and hand the Jihadists a victory of greater import than Afghanistan, (8) an engrained hatred of Christians and Jews, which has led to genocide and ethnic cleansing in Islamic nations even in modern times, and (9) a sense of victimhood among Muslims that has been enhanced by Western media and academia.