National Demos pulling Dist. 8 ads (Graf-Giffords race AZCD8)

The Arizona Daily Star ^ | 09.23.2006 | Daniel Scarpinato

[axes_of_weezles]

Howard Dane, Your boy Huffman spent nearly 800K and lost. He got other state republican parties to spend their money too. He still lost. Against the "weak" candidate Graf.

[Dane]

Howard Dane,

LOL! Graf was howard dean's choice and he got his wish.

[axes_of_weezles]

Yeah Howard, you made a bad investment in Graf.

Since when do Republicans make election funding decisions for Rats?

Dane, your boy lost. Get over it.

[Dane]

Since when do Republicans make election funding decisions for Rats?

Huh? Saturday afternnon happy hour start early for you?

[Redmen4ever]

In 2004, the district voted 53 for Bush versus 47 for Kerry.

We can therefore suspect that, on a level playing field, with two equally good campaigners, the Republican would have a slight advantage. This is not a district you'd want to concede to the other side.

I therefore doubt that the Republicans would withdraw from the district because of the one poll we have seen since the primary (or, that the Democrats would likewise withdraw from the district just because the Republicans have withdrawn.)

I think the national Republicans want to see if the advertizing through October 2 will be effective in turning the numbers around in this district (and how resources and needs develop within this district and nationwide), before putting more money into the district.

In other words, if Graf can close the gap at least somewhat, generate some money on his own, so that another half million fropm national will do the trick, and if the national Republicans have funds relatively available, funds will come back into the district.

(The same could be said about the Democrats, if Graf can close the gap at least somewhat in the next couple weeks.)

Having said this, it does look like the Republicans are making some very tough decisions. They are NOT funding incumbents who should be able to win on their own (e.g., multi-term incumbents in districts with a substantial Republican tilt). Instead, they are focusing their resources on vulnerable incumbents and a very small number of pick-up opportunities.

This strategy is predicated on maintaining a majority, even if a diminished majority, in the House. It is a defensive strategy.

If this is, indeed, the strategy, the fact is that non-incumdents will be at a severe disadvantage relative to vulnerable incumbents in getting money from the national Republicans.

[Borax Queen]

Thanks for the ping!

[CottonBall]

You are aware that every poll has Graf down by double digits, aren't you?

And who believes polls as if they were fact? I remember a decade ago, Prop 187 was said to be dead in the water due to the voting day polls. When the final numbers came out, it passed overwhelmingly and was never even close.

From that day forward, if I look at a poll - I look at who paid for it and their objectives. That'll explain it all.

[CottonBall]

You are aware that every poll has Graf down by double digits, aren't you?

And who believes polls as if they were fact? I remember a decade ago, Prop 187 was said to be dead in the water due to the voting day polls. When the final numbers came out, it passed overwhelmingly and was never even close.

From that day forward, if I look at a poll - I look at who paid for it and their objectives. That'll explain it all.

[CottonBall]

sorry for the double. Sometimes I don't think my internet cable is fast enough!

[CottonBall]

Interesting theory. It also gives the big picture view, which we tend to lack when looking at just one candidate. But you have more faith than I do that this isn't personal for the RNC and that they will come around if needed. I think they know Graf will be a thorn in their side and will not be able to be bought off. A real man, but not the kind of politican the Republicans like.

[Borax Queen]

You don't have a clue about this district, do you? At every town hall, immigration is the issue people want to discuss. Your RNC RINO talking points are old - it's no "single issue."

Why did even your RINO candidate Huffman and his flaming leftie counterpart Giffords frantically try to proclaim they are so for border enforcement? If it so doesn't matter to people, then why didn't/don't they skip pretending they care about a secure border?

[Borax Queen]

I think they know Graf will be a thorn in their side and will not be able to be bought off. A real man, but not the kind of politican the Republicans like.

Exactly right.

[ConservativeJen]

I think this is a case of the Democrats believing their own polls. Bush won the district, and the overwhelming majority of Americans support Graf's position on immigration.

[LS]

Last I saw, this was a fairly big Dem lead. Hope I'm wrong: Graf needs to---MUST---make the issue "open borders" Rats vs. humanity.

[NapkinUser]

"You are aware that every poll has Graf down by double digits, aren't you?"

The only poll that says that is Giffords' internal polls. Couple of other polls show Graf down by only four.

Wishful thinking on your part.

[NapkinUser]

Ping.

[truth_seeker]

Any thoughts about Tucson, where I'm visiting for a few days starting arrival Mon. PM?

Not interested in Phoenix, as you say. Too many people, and too hot.

But I am interested in the following: St. George, Prescott, Flagstaff, Sedona, and Tucson. Seen all except Tucson.

[axes_of_weezles]

Things to see/do in Tucson:

Mount Lemmon
Desert Museum
Pima Air Museum
Mission Del Xavier
National Observatory
Collosal Cave,Kirchner Cavern
Tubac (artsy fartsy)
Tombstone/Bisbee/Fort Huachuca Museum -day road trip
Old Tucson (western movie lot - may be closed)

[axes_of_weezles]

Titan Missile Museum (complete launch facility)

[colors]

Randy Graf will win. Would you post a link to the poll's you are refering to, please.

Every citizen in every state that is for our laws being upheld needs to pray that Randy Graf wins.

http://www.borderconsensus.com

Randy will be at the American Freedom Riders border ride on October 22, 2006 with at least 1000 riders cheering him on. Friends of Border Patrol will also attend with many others to be announced.