Hurricane Helene

noaa ^

[SoFloFreeper]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SHIP REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA YESTERDAY.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.5 N...23.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$ FORECASTER PASCH

[mainepatsfan]

Let the media hype begin!

[digger48]

Big Al the Environments Pal is probably feeling a stir in his loins, thinking he might just get lucky on this date.

[dirtboy]

[dinoparty]

Al with a stir in his loins ....

What a disturbing thought.

[Rb ver. 2.0]

All I have to say is this had better not screw up my fishing trip week after next.

[RobFromGa]

It might rain later today in Atlanta they say, maybe even some wind gusts...

[Rb ver. 2.0]

I hope you have the requisite supplies and evac plans.

[RobFromGa]

If these models are accurate, then half of the US could be obliterated,

[RobFromGa]

I'm hunkered down under the desk, ping me when it's all clear!

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

And we'll be forever getting that black stuff off of everything. I just got the house painted.

[RobFromGa]

All because of that darned butterfly flapping its wings...or was it a barking moonbat flapping its wings??

[toldyou]

ROTFL!

[Sam Cree]

[Michael Goldsberry]

This will be Gordon?

[Dog Gone]

We'd better hope this follows Florence's path. The intensity models bring this to a Category 3 storm pretty quickly.

[nwctwx]

This season is giving me some much needed rest. ;-)

[nwctwx]

Helene

[ohioWfan]

The left is praying that Karl Rove got it right this time......

[Pyro7480]

LOL!

[Diddle E. Squat]

LOL

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

No it's not Gordon. That's what I also first thought. Gordon is still expected to take nearly the same path as Hurricane Flo just did. It's closer to us than it is to Africa.

This one is scary as it looks like it's getting it's strength up way to early as far as location goes. They're usually just a tropical disturbance in the same area at this point.

[TitanicMan2003]

Tropical depression!

Oh noes!

I must lock myself in my underground bunker and not emerge until April! (Hey, you want to deal with Michigan winters?)

aaaaaaaah!

MGY

[Michael Goldsberry]

Ah, thanks. I must have blinked and missed Gordon.

[Hatteras]

WTFOT! Bump...

[Brilliant]

Looks like it's headed for Bermuda again. I wonder what they did to piss off the gods.

[nwctwx]

Gordon is headed off to the North Atlantic to die.

Although Florence and Gordon have both curved out to sea, this one may be worth watching. The pattern is forecast to shift towards one that would favor an east coast hit. We shall see though, it's still at least 10 days off.

[Paradox]

We're all gonna DIE!

[Tim Slagle]

The Left has been waiting all summer for a hurricane to blame on the President. Will Eight be their lucky number? And, just in case the NYT plans to run with the "Sky is Falling" Headline, here's a great update of the popular children's classic.

[epluribus_2]

If we finish up this hurricane season with fewer, less-intense hurricanes as in previous years and no mega storm like Katrina, does that mean the DayAfterTomorrow/Kyoto/GW/freaks should shut up? At least about how W and you SUV are causing a hurricane crisis?

[mcshot]

Just don't get jittery and start speculating on oil futures - stay down.
:-)

[AFPhys]

LOL: That's a keeper!

[Mo1]

what is that?

[RSmithOpt]

Looks like the speculators have found out too. NYMEX gas futures up. $2.04 @ 10:53 am even though storms this time of the year rarely enter the Gulf of Mexico.

[RobFromGa]

wat' dat'

read the title, it's a prediction of what could happen...

[lonestar]

Last Sept. 24, a Rita came over my house and I live in SE Texas. The levees held so we didn't make the news.

[AFPhys]

Historical summary: Great chance of this getting very strong, and about 1/3 chance of hitting US after weakening ...

[Sam Cree]

Yeah, I noticed quite a few major storms in that historical map. Scary.

[BeHoldAPaleHorse]

Tropical Depression?

Just take Tropical Prozac.

[Corin Stormhands]

The last few "big ones" to hit Virginia have hit in the third week of September.

[Sam Cree]

I guess New Orleans got all the press (still getting it, for that matter), but it's true that other areas were much harder hit in terms of storm intensity.

[rock_lobsta]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and call 'Fish' on this one too...

[Sam Cree]

I still remember Hurricane Hazel pretty well, October 1954. I was only six years old, but it made an impression. All hell broke loose on the farm when the winds began blowing. At least we got to come home early from school that day!

Check the loony track it made.

[arthurus]

Please oh please can't we just get s little death and destruction from one of these? All we ask is for a city to be destroyed, just a small city, preferably in the South.

[AUsome Joy]

Last year my DH and I were on a cruise in the Eastern Caribbean with Rita, then we were on a cruise in the Western Caribbean with Wilma, sailing out of Galveston. Next week we will be cruising to Bermuda with Gordon. We sure know how to pick vacations.

[dirtboy]

Isn't that the map from last year?

[dirtboy]

In the short term, there is a lot of dry air around it, and that has been the bane of intensification all season.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

That's nothing. In 1976, Typhoon Pamela hit Guam, did some damage and went away. It intensified to a super typhoon and came back on almost the same track where it left. It devastated the island.

[Capt_Hank]

Looks like my vessel, will stay on the hard for another week. Had it hauled out and blocked for Florence. Ready to go now, but the seas are 6-9 ft for the ride back to the marina, exiting St. Lucie Inlet and entering Ft. Pierce. A tad too much for me....

[AFPhys]

As of this hour, the only model runs I've been able to find are the extremely simplistic ones, pretty much based on the historical tracks. Their "guidance" shows nearly what you see on post#14, and as well as I understand it, are based on precisely that data. The SHIPS intensity model (which has been spectacularly incorrect this year) is the only more "modern" model that has been run so far, has it running up to Cat.1 in 2 days, and Cat.3 in 4 days... so it's looking like it wants to be "historical", too.

Looks like the NHC has backed off hyping the expected intensity from that "favored" model, though, possibly based on the earlier failures this year.