Why Republicans Will Win This Fall

Human Events ^ | August 17 2006 | R. Emmett Tyrrell Jr.

[Reagan Man]

Well, it is a very pleasant time to be in Washington. Senators and representatives alike have vacated the premises. Most have headed off to ply their trade on their constituents. The off-year elections are approaching, and most of our federal legislators want another stint at what the Democrats call "public service." That is a euphemism for what all reasonable observers call the "public trough."

The Democrats are in a sunny mood. As they see it, we are losing in Iraq. We are losing the war on terror. And Wal-Mart just posted a quarterly loss. All of this means, so the Democrats believe, that they will sweep the Senate and the House this fall. Their solution to the war in Iraq and to the war on terror is: "Come Home, America." They want our troops out of Iraq. They advocate fighting the war on terror closer to home. As Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton puts it, "We still have not done what we need to do to protect our ports, our borders, our bridges, our transit systems, our rail lines -- it's a long list." So, "Come Home, America." That is the refrain last made famous by Sen. Clinton's presidential candidate in 1972, Sen. George McGovern. She really has not changed all that much since then, nor have the rest of the Democrats.

President George W. Bush wants us to fight our wars on foreign soil. Most Americans agree. According to the recent Newsweek poll, 55% of the citizenry favor the way he is handling the war on terror and homeland security, an improvement of 11% over the last two months. Doubtless, Americans are not as approving of the way he has handled the war in Iraq, but their major concern is terrorism, according to a CBS News poll conducted after the British broke up that terror ring last week. Now the American electorate is going to have the next three months to weigh the merits of the Democratic alternative to the president's approach to national security. My guess is that the electorate will again reject "Come Home, America."

In an off-year election the president's party is supposed to suffer losses on Capitol Hill. It is indicative of the dreadful condition of the Democrats that the president's party actually gained seats in the last off-year election. Surely this time the Republicans will lose seats, but I predict that they will still hang on to both houses.

The first reason for this is that the president's insight that it is best to fight terrorists in foreign lands rather than to wait for them to arrive here is more appealing to Americans than the Democrats' "Come Home, America" strategy. Most Americans also understand that to thwart another 9/11, the government is going to have to surveil bank transactions, communications and travel. Frankly, I think most Americans would also approve of profiling, and in fact I suspect our government will be profiling rather soon. The only outrage I have heard of in response to news reports of government surveillance has come from journalists, the ACLU and the Democratic leadership, which is to say the Democratic leadership and its agents.

This brings us to the second reason that the Republicans will maintain both houses this fall. The Democrats have no appealing alternative to the Republicans. This is true on a whole range of matters from national security to the war on terror to the economy. The Democrats have been shrieking about the economy for six years, six years that have mainly been years of economic growth. Their alternative is to raise taxes, which surely is an alternative to growth. Yet my guess is that most Americans prefer growth.

A year or more ago the complaint heard most often about the Democratic Party was that it had not settled on a message. That was claptrap then and it is claptrap now. The Democrats have a message, but the message has no resonance beyond the Democratic Party. Their message is "Come Home, America." Polls show Americans dissatisfied with the condition of the country; but when they have to choose between a president who wants to fight our enemies abroad and the Democrats, most Americans will choose the Republicans. All the criticism from the Democrats over our war in Iraq and our war on terror amounts to being what an earlier president chided his war critics as, to wit: "back-seat drivers." The president was Franklin D. Roosevelt.

[Reagan Man]

>>>> .... the president's insight that it is best to fight terrorists in foreign lands rather than to wait for them to arrive here is more appealing to Americans than the Democrats' "Come Home, America" strategy.

[TexasCajun]

I hear Vegas is taking odds on how many Algore inspired recounts will be called for following widespread Democrat loses.

[facedown]

That is a euphemism for what all reasonable observers call the "public trough."

Sadly, it's been that way since the Washington administration.

[doug from upland]

Tyrrell is one of my very favorite writes. I am envious of his use of the language. Unfortunately, I am really worried about November. The President allowed the attacks by the Dems to go unanswered for far too long. People actually believed he told us we would find nuclear weapons in Iraq.

[trek]

What are the futures markets saying about the November election? (if they are taking contracts on politics this year)

[GulfBreeze]

Yea. I agree with the Presidential quote but we're still gonna lose a few. And what's more, down ballots are going to suffer.

That's all a pain in the arse but whatever...

[bobjam]

"back seat drivers" and "monday morning quarterbacks" could be some good lines for the GOP to use in the next few months

[Calpernia]

What about the enemy within?

GOP.gov is now chaired by the Log Cabin Republicans

Mr. Robert Kabel Present State Chairman, District of Columbia Republican Committee, elected December 6, 2004 Previous Special Assistant to President Reagan, 1982-1984 Chairman, Log Cabin Republicans, 1993-1999 Chairman, Liberty Education Forum, 2001-2004 Member, Foreign Claims Settlement Commission, 1986-1989 Member, Board of Trustees, Denison University Trustee, Whiteman – Walker Clinic, Washington, DC RNC Activity ---------------------------------------------------- Robert J. Kabel - Log Cabin Republicans - GOP Chairman His Financial support includes: http://www.sldn.org Servicemembers Legal Defense Network This Network is also financed by: David Mixner - headed up the Vietnam Moratorium and was a leading anti-Vietnam War activist. David Mixner was also Bill Clinton's gay advisor and is now McGreevey's gay advisor. Affiliated with lambda.org SLDN partnered with the ACLU to jointly persue a Lesbian & Gay Rights Project

[kesg]

I essentially agree with this. Except for a bit more unhappiness about Iraq, the political dynamics/fundamentals haven't changed since 9/11/2001. And they favor the GOP.

Yes, the poll numbers have recently looked depressing, but they always look depressing for Republicans during the Spring and Summer months. At this time two years ago, Kerry still led Bush in the polls. The Democrats appeared poised to make gains in Congress as well. Their problem is that they tend to peak in August and then tank in November. What happens between August and September? Pollsters start polling likely voters rather than "adults," the serious people return from summer vacation, and these peope start actually focusing on political issues. In 2004, Bush and those GOPers who looked to be in so much trouble in August did just fine on election day.

[Yo-Yo]

Tradesports has the GOP keeping the Senate but losing the House.

[RexBeach]

It's the way you win wars...go after the guy on his home turf and kick the snot out of him. My God, if we had fought WW2 the way the Democrats want to fight the WOT, we might all be speaking Japanese and or German.

[GulfBreeze]

actually Rep. Deborah Pryce chairs GOP.gov

[My2Cents]

According to the recent Newsweek poll, 55% of the citizenry favor the way he is handling the war on terror and homeland security, an improvement of 11% over the last two months.

Well, that little news item certainly got buried by the MSM.

[GoBucks2002]

I wish I could share Tyrell's optimism. Certainly, he is correct that the Dims have no strategy beyond "Come Home, America" but it is a sign of our party's inherent weakness that we have not consigned these clowns to the dustbin. A race between "dumb and dumber" still means our party is pretty dumb.

I think our biggest problem is that our candidates and officials, from the President on down, do not take enough credit for all that we have accomplished. The President goes out and mentions good economic numbers in a Rose Garden announcement that 99% of Americans will never see. Republican Congressmen only bring up good news when they are appearing before "safe" audiences. The fact is, there is good news on the economy, good news on the War on Terror, and good news everywhere. Problem is, no one wants to talk about it, not even those responsible for it.

So the Democrats come out swinging, repeat their lies over and over again, and we don't even try to reubt them, except maybe from the friendly confines of the Sean Hannity show.

We had the same problem in 2004, and, quite frankly, were it not for the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and the Democrats' Own-Goal on the forged documents, John Kerry would be President today.

I give zero credit to the Bush campaign, the RNC, and pretty much anyone else in politics whose area code starts with 202 or 703.

I don't know what savior is going to drop down from Heaven to save us this time around.

We are not going to keep our majority this time around, and, quite frankly, if our elected officials and their overpaid media consultants don't have the guts to defend their record, they don't deserve their plush jobs.

It's a shame that the rest of us will have to suffer the bad policies of the Democrats because we elected a bunch of chickens--ts in the first place.

[My2Cents]

the Democrats' "Come Home, America" strategy

The Democrats' strategy on terror is actually "Bring it Home."

[Teacher317]

Why Republicans Will Win This Fall

I figure that the Left predicting victory (again) is a pretty good indicator by itself.

[Reagan Man]

Michael Barone came out this week on Hannity`s radio show, predicting a GOP loss of the House. His one caveat was, if the election were held today. A razor thin victory is still in the cards for the GOP. We shall see.

[Calpernia]

I copied everything. If there is a technical difference in title, it was not my paraphrase.

[TaxMe]

Doug:

You are exactly right. Bush's administration is horrible (compared to Clinton's) about getting out there and marketing itself. It is sad you have to do such things but in a media driven world, it is necessary.

The Democrats have had three years now to sound the drumbeat of their spin on Iraq without any significant pushback. As a consequence, the Democratic spin is now the convential wisdow. THIS is Bush's primary failure?

[CPT Clay]

What does that mean?

81.5 to retain senate and 44.1% chance to take house?

[PhiKapMom]

Chairman Deborah Pryce first came to the United States House of Representatives in 1993 and has since established herself as a strong leader who has earned the respect of members on both sides of the aisle. Pryce was elected by her colleagues to serve as the Chairman of the House Republican Conference, which makes her the fourth-highest ranking member and the highest ranking Republican woman ever in the House of Representatives.

The House Republican Conference is the organizational vehicle for all Republican Members of the House and their staff. The Conference hosts periodic meetings of House Republicans and is the primary vehicle for communicating the party’s message to Members. As Chairman, Pryce directs the day-to-day operations of the Conference office and staff.

In addition to her leadership role as Republican Conference Chairman, Congresswoman Pryce serves on the House Committee on Financial Services. She returned to the committee after spending the past ten years on the House Rules Committee. The Committee has jurisdiction over the Federal Reserve, U.S. monetary policy, financial services technology issues, currency and coinage, and economic growth. Pryce is the fourth-ranking Republican on the Financial Services committee and also serves as Chairman of the Domestic and International Monetary Policy Subcommittee.

Pryce also holds the title of Deputy Whip. In this role she is responsible to gauge the support of fellow Republicans for legislation on the House floor and work with other members of leadership to shape strategy on issues. Pryce’s background as a prosecutor and judge and her reputation as a consensus builder have served her well in all of these leadership roles and have earned her the title of “Peacemaker.”

As co-chair of the House Cancer Caucus, Congresswoman Pryce is a key leader in the effort to defeat this terrible disease. She coauthored a bill which will help cancer patients in rural areas better access medical services through the use of “patient navigators,” individuals who help patients work their way through the health care system. Pryce also secured access for seniors to life-saving oral cancer drugs in the new Medicare law.

As a former prosecutor and judge, Congresswoman Pryce has championed the rights of crime victims in Congress. She led the charge to pass legislation that protects victims of violent crime by using DNA technology to keep criminals off our streets and eliminate the backlog of untested DNA files obtained at rape scenes. DNA technology may offer the best chance to close a painful chapter in the lives of victims and ensure that offenders are put and stay behind bars.

Congresswoman Pryce is a graduate of Ohio State University and Capital University Law School. She is a member of the Ohio Women’s Hall of Fame, having been inducted in 2001 for her outstanding achievements in public service. Pryce lives in Upper Arlington, Ohio with her daughter Mia. She enjoys reading and is an avid skier.

http://www.gop.gov/chairman.asp

[petercooper]

bttt

[StatenIsland]

"What are the futures markets saying about the November election? (if they are taking contracts on politics this year)"

Tradesports.com has a proposition "GOP Controls Senate", and the contract is bid at $81.10. That means if you purchase the contract and the GOP retains control your contract is worth $100. To look at it another way, of those putting their money where their opinions are, the feeling is that there is an 81.1% chance of continued Republican control.

On the House side, however, the bid for a "GOP Control" contract for $44.70. Which means the money players, as of today, think there is a 44.7% chance of continued Republican control.

[PhiKapMom]

You do realize that you have to be a member of the Republican House of Representatives Caucus to Chair GOP.gov which is the website of the Republican House Caucus?

I don't understand how this man who is not a Rep could be listed anywhere.

[My2Cents]

Elections tend to turn on very simple issues. The issues this year are the same issues of the past two election cycles: the war on terror, and the economy. If these two issues can be framed in the way that Tyrrell frames them here, the Democrats will be sorely disappointed on Nov. 8th.

[Calpernia]

I just copied.

[PhiKapMom]

He may be the head of something in D.C. but not the Conference (Caucus) site of the House Republicans.

[Always Right]

My Prediction:  No matter what happens, the media will spin it as a victory for the Democrats.

[Reagan Man]

The fact that Bush and Congressional Republicans are poor communicators and afraid of pissing off folks, continues to be a serious problem. The media doesn't help matters of course. But its up to Bush and the GOP Congress to use the Bully Pulpit of power to spread their message to the people. If that means going over the heads of the media and appealing directly to the people, so be it.

[1066AD]

Yes, depends a lot on world events between now and polling day too.

[GulfBreeze]

From Where, Calp?

[NeoCaveman]

81.5 to retain senate and 44.1% chance to take house?

You pay a 81.5 cents to win a dollar if the GOP keeps the Senate. You pay 44.1 cents and win a dollar if the GOP holds the House. IOW the House odds are longer per tradesports.

[Calpernia]

Then I missread his interview:

http://boifromtroy.com/?p=3291
LCR’s Robert J. Kabel Elected DC GOP Chair

Excerpt:

The DC GOP elected Robert J. Kabel, a member of Log Cabin Republicans, its Chairman. he is the first gay or lesbian elected to Chair a State Republican Party ever

[Calpernia]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1686046/posts?page=33#33

[Apple Blossom]

I agree with you 100%

The other key is that conservatives have to get out & vote! I'm not sure why this is the biggest obstacle.

[My2Cents]

People actually believed he told us we would find nuclear weapons in Iraq.

Bush can be faulted for not being forceful in driving home to the American people the big picture of Saddam's weapons program. And it may ultimately be his undoing. Some who seem to be in a position to know contend that Saddam's main R&D program on nuclear weapons was located in Libya. When Qaddafi turned over the nuclear material to the US, he was turning over the joint-venture he had with Saddam. Remember, international intelligence agencies (not simply our own feckless CIA) were saying back in 2002 that Saddam was probably one to two years away from having nuclear weapons.

Then there was this:

Evidence that Saddam frantically scrapped WMD hardware

Revelations that Saddam moved some of his WMDs and hardware out of the country were further confirmed by Demetrius Perricos, acting chairman of UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), who disclosed that his inspectors had been tracking shipments of illicit Iraqi WMD components around the world.

The Associated Press announced that UNMOVIC inspectors have found dozens of engines from banned al-Samoud 2 (SA2) missiles, which were shipped out of Iraq as "scrap metal."

UNMOVIC agents found 20 SA-2 engines in Jordan, along with a great deal of other WMD materials. Officials discovered an identical engine in a Rotterdam port in the Netherlands and believe as many as a dozen extra SA-2 missile engines alone have been transported out of Iraq and remain unaccounted for.

Besides the SA-2 engines, inspectors also found Iraqi "dual use" technology in Jordan, items purportedly employed in civilian affairs that can be used to create or enhance deadly weapons systems. The New York Times noted that among those items were "fermenters, a freeze drier, distillation columns, parts of missiles and a reactor vessel - all tools suitable for making biological or chemical weapons."

UN spokesman Ewen Buchanan put the threat of "dual use" technology into perspective. "You can make all kinds of pharmaceutical and medicinal products with a fermenter," Buchanan said. "You can also use it to breed anthrax."

Before the war, Saddam's regime cast its possession of "dual use" materials in the most innocent light, a ruse familiar to students of the Cold War. UNMOVIC wisely rejected his sunny assessment.

As Reuter's reported...”’A number of sites which contained dual-use equipment that was previously monitored by UN inspectors has [sic.] been systematically taken apart,’ said Ewen Buchanan, spokesman for the New York-based inspectors. ‘The question this raises is what happened to equipment known to have been there. Where is it now? It's a concern,’ Buchanan asked.”

“...The report said the U.N. inspectors also found papers showing illegal contracts by Iraq for a missile guidance system, laser ring gyroscopes and a variety of production and testing equipment not previously disclosed.”

Many of the “dual use” components UNMOVIC found in foreign ports had been previous tagged by UN inspectors in Iraq before the war. And transfers had taking place rapidly. During his presentation, Perricos showed the UN Security Council a picture of a fully developed missile site in May 2002 that had been entirely torn down by February of 2003.

Perricos' June 9, 2004, UN testimony was made all the more credible by the fact that he is hardly a neo-con stalwart. USA Today described his mindset just three months ago: "Demetrius Perricos, acting head of the United Nations weapons inspection program, can't disguise his satisfaction that almost a year after the invasion of Iraq, U.S. inspectors have found the same thing that their much-maligned UN counterparts did before the war: no banned weapons." Today, Perricos' smile has disappeared.

All these revelations came during a closed meeting of the UN Security Council held on June 9, 2004. However, the investigations are not new. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) launched its own probe into Iraqi WMD transfers a full six months previous to the UNMOVIC report when a Dutch scrap metal company discovered five pounds of yellowcake uranium ore in Rotterdam, according to an April 14, 2004, news report in the Washington Post.

The sample was shipped from Jordan but Jordanian officials said the metal originated in Iraq. (Perhaps this is the yellowcake that atomic sleuth Joe Wilson insisted Iraq never purchased from Niger...the purchase of which had subsequently been re-confirmed by the London Financial Times). Even the once skeptical IAEA Director Mohammed El Baradei warned that evidence of Saddam's WMDs was being shipped abroad.

[My2Cents]

Well-said.

[CedarDave]

...the president's insight that it is best to fight terrorists in foreign lands rather than to wait for them to arrive here is more appealing to Americans than the Democrats' "Come Home, America" strategy.

The Dim strategy will ensure that only thing that will come home to America will be Jihad.

[doug from upland]

The border is his primary failure, but the failure to respond is significant in where we now are. Ted Kennedy had actually been on Hannity radio for a few minutes a few years ago and got away with saying - he told us we would find nuclear weapons. Sean did not challenge that.

[California Patriot]

Tyrrell has no more knowledge of, or insight into, electoral politics than any other moderately well-informed person. He's also a blowhard, and so predictable.

He did, however, write a very good book on the conservative movement: "The Conservative Crack-Up." Written about 15 years ago, but still as relevant and instructive as ever.

[BluH2o]

My contention is the 'pubbies will win this November because most Americans realize the liberal 'Rats have the maturity of a 15 year old (on average) and need firm adult supervision ...

[RicocheT]

"...has the GOP keeping the Senate but losing the House"

Sad news as RINO Senators meant we lost the Senate some years back. This prediction is a double loss for conservatives.

[California Patriot]

Let's hope so. But don't forget, many Americans themselves "have the maturity of a 15 year old and need firm adult supervision."

[CharlesWayneCT]

IF the election were held today, of course the democrats would win. THere wouldn't be any real voters since it's not an election day, so the only votes would be illegal ones, which are mostly democratic.

[gridlock]

In an off-year election the president's party is supposed to suffer losses on Capitol Hill. It is indicative of the dreadful condition of the Democrats that the president's party actually gained seats in the last off-year election. Surely this time the Republicans will lose seats, but I predict that they will still hang on to both houses.

I think Mr. Tyrrell is being pessimistic. As I have been saying for a half a year, I think the Republicans will make gains in both Houses this Fall.

This brings us to the second reason that the Republicans will maintain both houses this fall. The Democrats have no appealing alternative to the Republicans.

But he's right about this. You can't beat something with nothing, and nothing is all the Democrats have. Dissatisfaction with the President on one issue or another will not result in Democrat votes unless the Democrats can articulate some positive reason to vote for them. They can't.

[California Patriot]

It's more important to keep the Senate. But I think we're in as much danger of losing the Senate as the House.

[California Patriot]

Let me clarify. You're right that the Republican party doesn't control the Senate now -- except now and then.

But there is a big difference between a stalemate in which the Rats (sometimes with RINO help, sometimes completely on their own) can veto almost everything, and actual Rat control. Combined with the RINOs and all the sissy "conservative" senators who just want to get along, even a one-vote Rat majority would be very, very dangerous.

[PhiKapMom]

That makes more sense. DC GOP must have about two members if that. I don't even count DC a State Party. UGH is all I have to say.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Yes, and befitting the whole thing, DC is not actually a STATE, but he is the STATE GOP CHAIR Of DC.