HEZBOLLAH 3, ISRAEL 0

NY Post ^ | 8/17/2006 | Ralph Peters

[Dark Skies]

ISRAEL'S rep for toughness in tatters. Hezbollah trium phant. Iran cockier than ever. Syria untouched. Lebanon's government crippled. An orgy of anti-Semitism in the global media. Anti-Americanism exploding among Iraqi Shi'as inspired by Hezbollah.

Thanks, Prime Minister Olmert. Great job, guy.

The debacle in Lebanon wasn't even a war. It was only round one of a war. And Israel's back in its corner, dazed and punch-drunk.

Israel got in a gut jab, but Hezbollah landed three ferocious haymakers:

* Despite the physical damage the Israeli Defense Forces inflicted, Hezbollah's terror-troops were still standing (and firing rockets) when the bell rang.

[Dark Skies]

Get ready for Round Two.

And Three, Four, Five...

[samtheman]

ISRAEL'S rep for toughness in tatters. Hezbollah trium phant. Iran cockier than ever. Syria untouched. Lebanon's government crippled. An orgy of anti-Semitism in the global media. Anti-Americanism exploding among Iraqi Shi'as inspired by Hezbollah. Thanks, Prime Minister Olmert. Great job, guy. The debacle in Lebanon wasn't even a war. It was only round one of a war. And Israel's back in its corner, dazed and punch-drunk.

Liberal Leadership, anyone? If you liked what Liberal Leadership did for Israel, you'll LOVE what it can do for America!

[Dark Skies]

EGGS ACKLY!!!

[bvw]

Yellow press. Yellow, Yelow, Yellow.

[EQAndyBuzz]

Needed a new tage line

[samtheman]

LOL!

[carumba]

but Hezbollah landed three ferocious haymakers:

I have told you a million times: Don't exaggerate.

[silverleaf]

Dear Mr Peters,

The "Thanks" deserves to be spread among all the civilized (non muslim) world that failed to back Israel's finishing the job.

[Dark Skies]

The "Thanks" deserves to be spread among all the civilized (non muslim) world that failed to back Israel's finishing the job.

If Sharon or Bibi had been at the helm, things would have gone differently.

[freedomson]

Retch.

[samtheman]

Actually, Bush was prepared to back Israel all the way. From what I understand (am I wrong?) Bush gave Israel the green light to go to all the way to Syria. And Israel barely made it to the Litani. Poor, poor, pitiful Israel. Not because of it's military, who wanted to go all the way, who planned to go all the way, who were ready to go all the way. But because of the Jewish Jimmy Carters that now run that country.

Don't blame this one on the "west". This is ALL ISRAEL'S FAULT.

[samtheman]

You don't need to put it in quotes. It's all yours.

[jveritas]

A refute for the Article above:

Israel Won

Through out the Arab Israeli wars people always set the high expectations that Israel is going to crush its Arabs enemies in matter of weeks if not days as in the case of the June 1967 war, where Israel destroyed the Egyptian, Syrian, and Jordanian armies combined in a span of six days and occupied lands that were twice its size.

In this last war with Hizballah terrorist militia, Israel did not show the world what they used to see before in Israel traditional wars, never the less Israel won this war, but without the public glow of the previous wars, or at least that of the 1967 war. Many political and military analysts in the West jumped to the conclusion that Israel did not win because they were not able to totally eliminate Hizballah, but those analysts failed to recognize that Israel main goal was not the total annihilation of Hizballah, but rather dealing them a very severe blow in South Lebanon and change the dynamic of Southern Lebanon toward Israel favor. From practical point of view, the total annihilation of Hizballah is not feasible because its members can simply abandon their arms and merge back into the population. The type of war that the IDF fought is not a traditional one, where the armies of the enemies are massing in the wide desert of Sinai or on the open area of Golan Heights, and where it is easier for air superiority and swift tanks operations to win the day for Israel, but rather this is a war where the enemy is using civilian population as human shields, hiding in well sophisticated tunnels, operating in small groups of 5, 10, or 20 maximum, which makes it a longer task for the IDF because they have to go and chase the enemy where they hide plus the worry of death to the civilian population where the enemy is sheltering.

So how did Israel win this war?

One needs to make a comparison before July 12th when the war started and where the situation is right now to conclude that Israel have won this war. Before July 12th Hizballah has an absolute control the Southern part of Lebanon extending from the Litani river to the Lebanese-Israeli borders. Hizballah had 1500 to 2000 hard core well trained fighters (terrorists) in this area, with huge amount of light and medium weapons, as well a huge storage of short range Katiucha rockets, and those powerful anti-tanks rockets. From May 2000 when Israel withdrew from Lebanon until July 2006, Hizballah with the help of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards built hundreds of sophisticated undergorund tunnels to be used for defensive and offensive operations, tunnels equipped with highly advanced communications equipments, night visions gears, and storage weapons facilities for different types of weapons. In a month of fighting from July 12th to August 14th, Israel killed approximately 600 Hizballah fighters and injured a similar number. The extremely high casualties among Hizballah fighters is from a force that number around 2000, from military point of view that is the closet thing to annihilation. All Hizballah military infrastructures in Southern Lebanon and South of Beirut (AL Dahiyeh) had been badly damaged and many were totally destroyed. Israel was able to take out at least half of Hizballah katucha missiles and launchers, much higher percentage from their longer range missiles and its launchers. Israel destroyed a lot of Hizballah ammunition depots and confiscated a lot of Hizballah weapons that they abandoned in the battlefields. Israel forced Hizballah leadership to go into hiding in bunkers, and they are still hiding even now after days from the cease fire, and Israel killed a good numbers of Hizballah military commanders, the last one was the commander of Hizballah Special Forces who was killed very shortly before the cease fire started on August 14. In regards to Israel losses, they lost 120 soldiers in a month of fighting, this is the least number of Israeli soldiers killed in any major war that Israel had fought. In fact they lost over 1000 soldiers in 1967 war, over 3000 in 1973 war, and over 700 soldiers in 1982 invasion of Lebanon.

But from the military point of view the worst of all defeats for Hizballah, and that analysts are not taking it considerations, is that Hizballah claimed that Israel cannot enter one inch in Lebanese territories and that they “The Resistance” will destroy the Israeli army at the blue line, that claim was totally destroyed. Israel occupied large part of Southern Lebanon from the the borders all the way to the Litani river, and they did most of the occupation in the last 36 hours of the war. Hizballah main claim that they will not disarm is because Israel occupies the Sheba farms which is a disputed piece of land that may rather belong to Syria and not Lebanon, and Hizballah vowed to keep their arms until they “liberate” Sheba farms. But now after this war, Israel has many more land in Lebanon than the Sheba farms. In other word, Israel can occupy Lebanon anytime they want despite all the rhetoric of Hizballah that they can prevent them from doing so. In fact after the recent occupation by Israel to Southern Lebanon, Hizballah wanted to save face and they claimed that their strategy was not to prevent Israel from occupying land, but rather to let them in and then start resisting them inside and kill them!

On the political front, and despite all the loop holes of UN resolution 1701, it is still a major defeat for Hizballah, and that why they accepted when the war was going on and then they refused it when the cease fire started because it goes against them. In UN resolution 1701 there will be 30000 Lebanese and International troops to take control from the Litani River down to the borders with Israel and this area should be free of Hizballah armed presence. Hizballah never dreamed that he will not be the only armed force controlling the area South of the Litani river, but now they have at a minimum to share it with 30000 others troops, and that there military activity will be much more restricted and much more clandestine no matter what. But a much worse scenario for Hizballah will be that they be forced in one way or another to leave to the North of the Litani river.

On the “Propaganda” front, Hizballah achieved a “victory” but as all propaganda victories, they are short lived, and get demolished when reality set in. What aggravated this Hizballah delusional propaganda victory are the many military and political analysts together with some Israeli politicians who made the wrong assumptions on what Israel goals were in this war, misunderstood the nature of the war, and compare it wrongly to Israel other traditional wars, and that the facts that Israel did not totally annihilate Hizballah, then Israel did not win, or worse they assumed that Israel was defeated because it did not achieve “the impossible” military goals that those analysts and politicians set for Israel. Of course, the Arab media, Syria, Iran, and definitely Hizballah were going to claim victory no matter what were the results. In 1967 war, the most crushing defeat for the Arabs, the Arabs leaders and their media were claiming that they are surrounding Tel Aviv up to the last second of the war, when they finally woke up to their horrible defeat. In the Yom Kippor war of October 1973, Egypt and Syria were able to make some advancement in the beginning of the war, when they kind of surprised the Israeli forces in Sinai and Golan heights, but later in the war, Israel was able to re-group, crushed the Arab armies, and indeed occupied even more land than in 1967. Still both Egypt and Syria consider this 1973 war as a great victory for them, they call it the war of where “The Myth of the Invincible Israeli Army was Destroyed”, and they make October 7th as a national holidays in their countries. Arabs concepts of victory and defeat is totally different from that the world, unless you totally annihilate them, whoever left standing will claim victory. We have seen it in al their wars with Israel and we have seen it with Saddam Hussein after the 1991 Gulf war.

The saddest part in this war, is that the biggest loser was Lebanon and the Lebanese people. In one month of war Lebanon lost 3 billions dollars in infrastructure, and another 7 billions dollars in economy, where the whole summer tourism season is gone. Lebanon has 21 billions dollars annual GDP so a loss of 10 billions dollars is almost 50% of this GDP, it is an economic disaster beyond belief. There are over 12000 homes destroyed in Lebanon, 75 bridges, power stations, and over 800,000 refugees living in miserable conditions. Still the worst thing, is the death of hundred of Lebanese civilians who were use Hizballah terrorists as human shields and the dozens of Israeli civilians killed by Hizballah Katiucha whose only real value is that of terror.

The war with Israel is now over at least for a very long time, despite all the rhetoric and the false propaganda and the knee jerk reactions, Israel dealt a very severe military blow to Hizballah and was able to change the status-co on their Northern borders greatly to their favor by the having Hizballah much less in control of the South of Lebanon a very different situation from when the war started on July 12th.

The greatest fear now is what is going to happen inside Lebanon. Will the Lebanese government and other Lebanese factions take advantage of a greatly weakened Hizballah whose fighting force is very badly damaged and whose leadership is hiding in bunkers to put more pressure on Hizballah to fully disarm and renounce terrorism, or will they subdue to fear and get affected with a fake propaganda win for Hizballah and do not do anything to Hizballah for fear of a civil war or fear that they themselves will be killed by the terror militia. Time will tell, but unfortunately the latter looks more probable.

[Dark Skies]

But because of the Jewish Jimmy Carters that now run that country.

And who soon will be retired.

[samtheman]

They ought to be hung.

[Raycpa]

If a patient has cancer, shouldn't you try to kill the cancer without killing the patient?

[silverleaf]

If Bush and Condi were supporting Israel they were awfully circumspect in their language. Quite timid in their open support. If America cannot openly take sides against evil, then that is why we will eventually fight a great battle against evil as it strengthens on our timidity (aka, "diplomacy"), and we may lose it.

[Rummyfan]

The debacle in Lebanon wasn't even a war. It was only round one of a war. And Israel's back in its corner, dazed and punch-drunk.

I expect the fight to resume shortly, and this time, with a clearer outcome.

[qman]

Correct! See Ezikiel 38 & 39 which refers to that coming battle.

[rock_lobsta]

No touchdown... the hesbos had to settle for the field goal.

Only the first quarter...

[Truth29]

Olmert will use his new investigative panel to try and shift all of the blame on to the IDF. He will also use the treasury to bribe the minor ruling coalition partners to continue to support him IMO. I am not sure that his government will fall any time soon.

[NonValueAdded]

Peters nailed it. Defeat has been saved from the jaws of victory. Our Administration is strangely complicit in that outcome. The real aftershock is that the public will turn to the other party, when the real problem was not enough will-to-win, something our democRATs use only for elections. Israel's change of government will at least bring them to the right; ours will go in the opposite direction unless a real miracle occurs, and right soon. A democRATic administration will be Olmert writ large. This is a cluster-flop of the first magnitude.

[pissant]

Ralph, you are sounding like a drama queen

[Mac94]

To make a counter against the optomistic tone of the article, while Hezbollah was wounded and did suffer losses, those losses are replaceable. Men and material can be replaced, esp in the light of Hezbollah's newfound "glory" in the Arab world.

As for the buffer zone. The author is assuming that the Lebanes Army and the U.N. will execute resolution 1701 flawlessly. Since whne has the U.N. even pulled of what they say they are actually gonna do? Do you really link that the U.N. is gonna put 15,000 troops into the area? Do you really think that they are gonna lift a finger to stop Hezbollah from rebuilding in the south?

The author makes great pains in the early part of the article to describe how Hezbollah fighters can blend in with civilians yet ignores this in the assumption that the U.N. will actually do anything in the south. How is the U.N. gonna stop these "civilians" from moving back south to their homes?

Israel publically stated three aims in this conflict:

1) the return, without condition, of its soldiers.
2) the disarming of Hezbollah
3) South Lebanon in control of the Lebanese Army/a robust international force.

Israel failed on ponts one and two and item three is shakey at best with it's fate in the hands of the French and Kofi Annan.

Yeah, some victory.

[Bosco]

Another Ezekiel 38/39 watcher...

[jveritas]

Israel never said that it will disarm Hizballah, i.e. take all their weapons away, it is an impossible thing to do since Hizballah can simply melt in the civilian population and hide their arms all over Lebanon.

In regards to the two soldiers, Israel has captured at least 15 Hizballah fighters including some High Assets people as Israel Foreign minister mentioned two days ago. So Israel will have the upper hand when negotiating on getting the prisoners.

[tobyhill]

The longer Olmert stands around twiddling his thumbs the longer time the Hezbos have to rebuild their arms. He should just go ahead and declare Lebanese violations of the cease-fire for the soldiers not being returned and get on with round two.

[railroader]

"Correct! See Ezikiel 38 & 39 which refers to that coming battle."

Probably not yet.

[Tolik]

Ralph Peters:

...Politicians and generals everywhere, repeat after me: "Air power alone can't win wars; you can't defeat terror on the cheap with technology; and (in the timeless words of Nathan Bedford Forrest) War means fighting, and fighting means killing."  

...You can't win if you won't fight

...All this is heartbreaking. I wish it were otherwise. I wish I could back up our president's surreal claim that Israel won. I wish Israel had won. I wish it had the leadership the Israeli people deserve.

And that's what's tragic: Israel's politicians turned out to be even more profoundly out of touch with their people than the pols in Washington. Israelis were willing to fight. They wanted to win. The rank and file of the IDF would have done what needed to be done. And their leaders failed them.

There will be consequences. Iran's convinced it's on a winning course. Syria got away with murder (literally). And Hezbollah will come back more determined than ever.

Oh, I almost forgot those two IDF soldiers whose kidnapping triggered all this. But I can be forgiven, since Israel's leaders forgot about them long before I did: The U.N. resolution Olmert welcomed makes no binding and immediate demand for their return.

And the world is going to let Iran build nuclear weapons.

Get ready for Round Two

Nailed It!

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[.cnI redruM]

>>>>And the world is going to let Iran build nuclear weapons.

Not that Chirac or John Kerry would do anything to stop them if they used said weapons...

[tobyhill]

To win against these terrorist requires fighting a lot dirtier than they fight. What happened to the good old fashion assassin teams that could make a hit of a top terrorist leader and send their whole organization in disarray?

[Rummyfan]

And the world is going to let Iran build nuclear weapons.

Ummm..... that would be very bad.

[NonValueAdded]

The author makes great pains in the early part of the article to describe how Hezbollah fighters can blend in with civilians yet ignores this in the assumption that the U.N. will actually do anything in the south. How is the U.N. gonna stop these "civilians" from moving back south to their homes?

Even worse, there will be 15,000 "Lebanese" soldiers stationed there, ostensibly armed and in the open. The Hezzies won't just blend in with the civilians, but also with the "Lebanese" army, armed to the teeth and in the open. A "legitimate" Lebanese military will of course get the support of UNIFIL for having defensive weapons protecting their southern border. Look for the new Iranian dual-purpose ground-to-air / ground-to-ground missile launcher, coming to a Lebanese neighborhood real soon. And the UN won't do a dammed thing about it.

[Mac94]

Actually, Israel did go in with one stated war aim being the disarmament of Hezbollah in accordance with the prior U.N. resolution.

As for the release of the soldiers, the original aim was for their release without condition, meaning no prisoner swap or negotiations as had been done in the past.

[justa-hairyape]

So Hezbollha forces in Southern Lebanon suffered 600 casualties from 2,000 total (30 %).

What amazes me however is how quickly the MSM Conventional Wisdom drastically changed. There were 3 weeks of Katrina-like 'Israelis are killing Lebanese' stories where 'victims' were 'crying and begging for Israel to stop'. So Israel stops. And a few days later the MSM is now running stories about how little damage the Israelis did. And just like during Katrina, the MSM got it wrong every time.

Fortunately for some of us, our heads simply cannot spin that quickly.

[NonValueAdded]

No touchdown... the hesbos had to settle for the field goal.

The problem is that the game is soccer, not American football, and three to zip is one heck of a lead.

[70times7]

Some interpretations of Scripture suggest that Israel’s enemies will try to nuke them. I read this article and see a time in the near future when we may indeed back away, perhaps w/ the election of a democrat pres and house we will no longer have the testicular fortitude to do what is right. Iran and Syria and the whole of the Middle East will come against Israel. Russia will honor its treaty w/ Iran and back them. At that point they will be alone and the nukes will fly. God, Himself will save them. And then it will be time.

Many have been watching, and predicting and prognosticating (obviously me included). Is this the "start" of that course? Who knows - I don't, but it's a possibility.

None-pre-mid-post? Don't know that either, but I sure do hope it's pre.

[xkaydet65]

The gist I get from Peters is that we had given the "blank check" and the Israeli gov't was unwilling and the IDF unable to cash it.

For the last couple of years I taught with a Math teacher, like me in his 50s, who lived in Israel till he was 22. He served in the IDF and then he found a position in the Army reserves to avoid the VietNam draft. He would always boast about the vast superiority of the training he received in the IDF and the way its units outclassed anything the US possessed. He's retired now and I've lost touch, but I'd lke to ask him what he thinks of Peters' article. In an earlier piece, Peters was even more harsh. The IDF reserves. he believed, would have crumbled if faced with a Fallujah or a Ramadi. As they say in the movie of the same title, Things Change.

[jveritas]

I do not think Israel ever mentioned that they are going to implement resolution 1559 for the Lebanese by disarming Hizballah.

In regards to prisoners exchange it is Israel who sets now the conditions not Hizballah.

[blam]

Something seemed amiss when it became known that we had to rush Israel 'bunker buster' bombs. The 'old' Israel would already have had a large stock pile.

I'm embarassed for Israel.

[jveritas]

Nasrallah is dead terrorist walking and so is all the leadership of Hizballah. Israel will kill them in the first opportunity.

PS: Nasrallah and his leaderhip team are still hiding in bunkers somewhere in Lebanon or may be outisde Lebanon, even after 4 days of cease fire.

[Valin]

ISRAEL'S rep for toughness in tatters. Hezbollah trium phant. Iran cockier than ever. Syria untouched. Lebanon's government crippled. An orgy of anti-Semitism in the global media. Anti-Americanism exploding among Iraqi Shi'as inspired by Hezbollah.

Today. Tomorrow?
My point is this is a long war, and there are going to be wins and losses. We won one when the airline plot was uncovered, we lost one with this "cease fire". And Israel WILL be back.

[Valin]

The greatest fear now is what is going to happen inside Lebanon. Will the Lebanese government and other Lebanese factions take advantage of a greatly weakened Hizballah whose fighting force is very badly damaged and whose leadership is hiding in bunkers to put more pressure on Hizballah to fully disarm and renounce terrorism, or will they subdue to fear and get affected with a fake propaganda win for Hizballah and do not do anything to Hizballah for fear of a civil war or fear that they themselves will be killed by the terror militia. Time will tell, but unfortunately the latter looks more probable.


There will be civil war in Lebanon
(one mans opinion, freely given and worth almost that much)

[justa-hairyape]

Nasrallah is dead terrorist walking and so is all the leadership of Hizballah. Israel will kill them in the first opportunity.

Man do you have a grasp of that situation.

Where is this, Nasrallah the Great !

The Great Leader !

The Great Legend !

Perhaps even ..... The Great Mahdi himself.

Come Nasrallah the Great !

Please tell us how to celebrate your magnificent victory !

[kesg]

Had Israelies known from the beginning that Olmert would have chosen this outcome, they would not have supported the war. They would have demanded what he actually promised: disarming Hezbollah and getting back the two soldiers. This is why Ralph Peters is essentially right.

The part that continues to bother me is our own support of UN resolution 1701. It is not in our national interests for the same reasons that it is bad for Israel. Or, to be more precise, it's terrible for Israel because it is unenforceable and won't be enforced. But this was ultimately Israel's call. If Olmert and the rest of the Israeli government didn't really want to fight, what -- short of entering the conflict ourselves -- could we reasonably have done?

[jveritas]

Exactly :)

[Mac94]

Didn't aim israel would or wouldn't do it, just that was (at first) a must in this war:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/739524.html

"The prime minister said that Jerusalem is not ruling out negotiating an end to the crisis provided that the terms of any future deal would rest on the basis of the recent declaration by the Group of Eight industrialized nations, "meaning, the immediate unconditional release of the kidnapped soldiers and the implementation of UN Resolution 1559."

http://story.londonmercury.com/p.x/ct/9/id/a202fb413a3947d7/cid/b8de8e630faf3631/

"Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told a U.N. delegation Tuesday that the disarming of Hezbollah and border security remain conditions of an Israeli cease-fire."

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3276889,00.html

"The Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem stated that Israeli was demanding the Lebanese army deploy along the southern border to control Hizbullah. The PMO clarified that they had no intention for an international force be redeployed but Lebanon’s national army.


The statement read: “Resolution 1559 must be upheld, which calls for the Lebanese army to be deployed along the border and Hizbullah to be disarmed. This is our demand.” (Ronny Sofer)"

There are a ton of storeis out there, esp early on the Israel demanded disarmament as a result of this war. Right now, they seem to have lost that. Neither the Lebanese Army of the U.N./French are willing to do this job.

Israel demanded it, but it is not and (in all probability) will not happen. Again, how is this a victory?

[SJackson]

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----------------------------

[justa-hairyape]

They would have demanded what he actually promised: disarming Hezbollah and getting back the two soldiers.

'Disarming' Hezbollha includes decreasing their numbers of armament. That was accomplished. The question here is how much of a decrease will signify a win for Israel. No one ever expected 100 % reductions in armament. At present time only the IDF knows what was destroyed. Everything else is conjecture.

Concerning the soldiers, we do not know what internal communications have occurred. For example, it may had been explained to Israel, in no uncertain terms, that the soldiers are no longer even a viable issue. We do not know.