Posted on 08/09/2006 10:05:34 AM PDT by ex-Texan
oh, yes it did.
Tens of thousands of dollars doesn't amount to much on the million dollar homes they have in these areas. A lot of it is just hype by the real estate industry to get people looking at houses. Even a 34% increase in foreclosures isn't that big of a deal, particularly since they were at a very low level to begin with.
I am comfortable quoting from a few posts on a very popular real estate blog. (Ben Jones was just interviewed by Newsweek). Note that these people are saying the same things that I have said. But, they have actually visited the Pacific Northwest.
Just got back from vacation the last week of July. Went to Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver (Canada).I noted a few things:
1) Portland downtown is filled with highrise luxury condo complexes. You can’t take the free streetcar (love that!) more than 1 block without seeing another new highrise. Thing is: Portlanders don’t make that much money. Who is going to live in these $750k condos?
2) Seattle also has condos everywhere. There are lots of luxury towers from the Space Needle all down towards downtown, and then zillions of smaller condo complexes (3-6 stories high) especially throughout Capital Hill and First Hill. For any of you Seattlites wondering if you could have a bubble, I’ll tell you. YES.
3) Then on to Vancouver. The blogger from Vancouver has said this here before, but now I’m inclined to believe. Vancouver may be the biggest bubble market out there. Maybe even more than Phoenix and Las Vegas (yes I know it’s hard to believe). Vancouver downtown is almost all condo towers (I believe it holds the distinction of the only downtown in the world that’s over 70% residential). We saw more cranes in Vancouver than I’ve ever seen. I stood in southeast downtown Vancouver (near Granville Island and the science museum) and looked around and saw 12 cranes. 12!!!!!! I took a picture that had 8 cranes within just a few blocks of me, maybe like 5 blocks or so…. but the pic didn’t turn out. :(
If I recall correctly, Vancouver has about the same population as Portland… but Vancouver’s downtown is at least 10 times bigger. And it’s 5x bigger than Seattle’s. crazy.
But overbuilding wasn’t restrcted to the cities either. (except canada which has different zoning laws). we saw amazing overbuilding in Olympia, Tacoma, and even Vancouver WA. Are they kidding?
The Pacific NW is one of the most overbuilt (silently) areas of the country. Sorry guys.
Clouseau
I’m from Portland originally, and my parents still live there. Downtown has indeed gone condo crazy, but the real fun is out in the burbs. The condo bust started way early out there, like several years ago, from what I recall. They built a light-rail system out to Beaverton and the western suburbs and did zoning stuff so that a whole bunch of condos got built around the light-rail stops. “Smart growth” and all that. Well guess what? No one wanted these crappy little suburban condos, and many of the projects languished, even as SFHs went crazy in the same suburbs. You are dead on about Portlanders not making all that much money, either. There are a lot of California equity refugees, and a few decent large employers there, but nothing that provides huge wealth. One of the saddest parts is that downtown Portland used to be kinda funky and cool–a bit weird and ‘off’ in an artsy way–and all of the overpriced condos and cookie-cutter yuppie businesses that followed made downtown really tacky, plastic, and just plain uninteresting.
Very observant...
It isn't a bargain!
The current 'stall' in home prices is not an actual pullback yet...if you want a bargain, wait another 18 months from today for the trough.
Reagan80
Right on!
The cause of most of this is lack of common sense on the part of the mortgage holders. They sign up for silly loans like interest only, etc just so they could 'get rich quick' off the real estate boom. Some got lucky and got out before the bubble sprung it's leak. Others didn't. That's their own fault.
I think you have to admit that the "track record" of the experts (predicting gains) is much better than your track record (predicting losses).
Why should anyone believe that, after soooo many failed "prophecies", you are "right" this time?
Why don't you read: "The Boy Who Cried Wolf", Aesop
How about a little personal responsibility? No one forced another to buy real estate, no one put a gun to anyones head and said "Sign this adjustable rate mortgage or I will kill you" If people are to damn stupid to take the time to understand the possible consequences of their actions then they deserve all they get.
The price is only $495,000 It has about 1,300 sq. ft. and is on a beautiful landscaped lot surrounded by trees and a large garden area in the back. "The list of features goes on, but already with all this said, it is clearly the best bargain you will find in Sunland, California."
Hot! Hot! Hot! . . . Buy it today!
LOL, LOl, LOl !
We are living in our third house. It is paid for. We swapped houses about every ten years with good interest rates and now we own our home free and clear, and I'm 50. I see my foolish friends taking out incredible mortgages at old ages and I just shake my head. Case in point: a good friend just spent $150,000 on a lot that wasn't even on the lake (it came with a "dock") and 500,000 on a house. He's 55 and she is 54 and just about every penny they have is going to the house payment which is something like close to 3,000 a month.
Let one job be lost and they are totally screwed. You couldn't PAY me to take on another mortgage at my age.
http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2006/08/07_delong.shtml
Yeah, maybe if he prays...oops, no, scratch that, if he wishes hard enough it will happen. I guess I could claim there will be a recession in 6 months and if I do this every 2 months, one day I will be right.
Ok. Fair enough. If you really believe that realtor/ mortgage broker propaganda, flip that house in # 30.
Well, if you pay more, you get more...
To see what other people think homes "should" cost, why don't you check out:
http://roundhillpartners.com/homesearch.htm?scope=OFFICE&action=Search&hometypes%5B%5D=1
Enjoy!
PS: Most buyers of such properties "pay cash".
How are the nummbers compared to May, in other words month to month?
Its the adjustable rates that are causing the problems. If you didn't pick up a fixed rate when they went down to about .04% you have to be numb. My first house in 1964 had a higher rate. Thank God we don't have another Carter in office because when he was POTUS my 4th house had a 12% Mtg.. Since we are currently here to stay the .04% works great. Adjustable rates work OK if you want to keep a house for a short time or build up your capital to re mortgage it at a fixed rate later. "We Buy Homes" is cleaning up here in FL. People are trying to get out from under and are taking almost 1/3 of value off their property just to get the mortaget off their backs.
There were a lot of loans made without background checks a couple of years ago if the buyer was willing to pay an extra half of a percent in interest.
Lots of interest only loans.
Lots of overpriced property snapped up when the RE market became like our old stock market under Clinton before it all went south.
That house in # 30 is a POS house in border jumper heaven. Look at the beautiful tree lined street. The neighborhood looks more like Pecoima than Sunland. But all those Mexican neighborhoods all look the same. It is not worth a dime over $ 50,000. Like I said, if you truly believe that realtor/ mortgage company BS you ought to buy it. Buy it with a 2.5% option ARM loan. LOL, LOL, LOL!
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