Secular Jews believe that it is the IDF rather than the God of Abraham that preserves Israel.
The surprise is - what?
Posted on 08/08/2006 8:03:40 AM PDT by A. Pole
A few days after the outbreak of the war, I spoke to old Israeli friends. They live in the Tel Aviv area, and are therefore not directly exposed to the missile attacks in the north. Like most Israeli families, though, they have friends and relatives in the north, some of whom they now host in their home. “Are you winning?” I asked. “No,” my friend said. “We can’t win. For years we all knew that the military was not training — that the state was cutting military budgets and closing down bases. We knew it was just a question of time before this would happen.” “What is your mood?” I asked, hearing gravity in his voice. “We can’t believe that we don’t even have the ability to stop an organization like Hezbollah. It’s not even a state, you know. Where is our great Israeli army? This feels like 1973 all over again.” I’ve heard that comparison again and again from other Israelis in the past few days. And I’ve heard a great deal of disappointment — in a political leadership that is not leading and a military leadership that is not performing.
I was a child during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, but I remember it well. Israel was not defeated or destroyed in that war, but the Arab armies’ ability to wage a broad surprise attack and seriously challenge the Israeli military shocked us all. The failure to anticipate the war and to obviate severe losses quickly became known as the mechdal, (great oversight). This negligence on the part of military intelligence eventually led to a commission of inquiry, which in turn forced the dismissal of much of the Israeli Defense Forces’ leadership and the resignation of Prime Minister Golda Meir and her defense minister, Moshe Dayan. This smashed all illusions of the Israeli public that leaders could be trusted and that victory could always be rapidly assured. It robbed them of the triumphalism bred by the 1967 war, in which the Israeli army stunningly defeated its enemies in a mere six days. 1973 was a rude awakening, reminding Israel of its vulnerability. The war now being waged on Israel’s northern cities is likewise stirring such an awakening.
The Israeli public, two million of whom are refugees from their northern homes or hunkering down in shelters, is quietly questioning its leadership and its military prowess. As a nation full of pride for its military — a true military of the masses in which service is compulsory — even a modicum of doubt in victory is a tremendous rupture for the Israeli psyche. This is a nation of soldiers, parents of soldiers, and friends of soldiers, and so a loss of faith in the army is a loss of faith in oneself. But such is the reality in Israel. “Where is the army of 1967?” is a common question. In the absence of visible results from the incursion into Lebanon, under the strain of continuous rocket fire, the public is growing more and more concerned. They fear that complacency overtook the army in post-Oslo years; that real regional dangers were tragically overlooked in favor of local policing, leaving soldiers more comfortable at checkpoints than in battlefields. They fear that Palestinian claims and the need to suppress Palestinian terror emanating from Palestinian-controlled territories overshadowed the threats of Lebanon, Syria, and Iran — the current-day menaces lurking on the border. As Professor Zeev Sternhall wrote recently in Haaretz newspaper: “the average citizen, who is not working day and night in the corridors of power and is not sunning himself near the generals’ command rooms, is at a loss. Is this how we are restoring the IDF’s power of deterrence? … If several thousand guerrilla fighters do constitute an existential danger to a country with a strike force and weaponry that are unparalleled in this part of the world, how is it that during the past five or six years we heard nothing to that effect from government leaders?” In other words, once again there seems to have been a mechdal, a grave, fatal oversight on the part of the military and the government.
It is not only Israeli citizens who are sounding the alarm, but parts of the army itself. Prime Minister Olmert spoke last week at the graduation ceremony of the National Defense College, outlining his strategic vision. When Olmert pronounced that “in this war we have already achieved unparalleled achievements that have changed the face of the Middle East,” Haaretz reported that senior officers in the audience wondered aloud, “Is it possible that he is looking at the same war that we are?” Other officers argued that if the Israeli moves were presented as a war exercise in the classroom, they would not have gotten a passing grade. Others spoke of hubris, of the faulty belief that the air force alone could overcome the Katyusha problem, and of the prolonged negligence in training reserve units and equipping them properly.
And yet, in the midst of all of this criticism, the Israeli government continues to shout victory. Last Wednesday, the very day that 210 rockets fell in the north — a record number with record range — Prime Minister Olmert declared that the offensive in Lebanon has “entirely destroyed” the infrastructure of Hezbollah. “I think Hezbollah has been disarmed by the military operation of Israel to a large degree,” he confidently continued. Maybe he is right, but Israelis don’t buy it. Nor are wars won by clean metrics; they are the result of perceptions of victory or defeat, strength and weakness. This enormous gap between public perceptions and overblown p.r. statements is growing and serving to alienate Israeli citizens further and further from their elected officials. Moreover, mentions of further unilateral Israeli disengagements from the West Bank during this wartime are poorly timed, as many Israelis view the battle in Lebanon as proof that unilateral withdrawals do not work. Still, Olmert triumphantly predicted last week that the fighting in Lebanon would give “new momentum” to his convergence — the other name for disengagement- plan. The result: National religious reservists from West Bank settlements, well known for their commitment to sacrifice on behalf of the country and many of whom form the backbone of the very units upon which Israeli now relies most in Lebanon, are threatening to refuse service. The way they see it, they will not work for a government that will use this war as a political tool to endanger their homes, their lives, and the lives of Israeli citizens on the whole. National Religious Party chairman MK Zevulun Orlev encapsulated these sentiments well when he said that “any sentient person understands the war has defeated the convergence. Ignoring the fact that a further retreat from Judea and Samaria will bring the Katyushas and Qassams to Petah Tikva and Ben Gurion International Airport is political and military blindness.”
Make no mistake; Israel will win this war in any objective sense — as it did in 1973. Hassan Nasrallah and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who crow about this as the beginning of Israel’s collapse because its people have been proven to have no stomach to fight, are deluded. Those who hope that the will of the Israeli people has been broken are betting against reality. What has failed is not the will of the Israeli people, but their leadership and elites. The blindness displayed by those elites toward the future and the recent blindness of the past will no doubt yield political consequences and a reckoning.
The mechdal of 2006 has fractured Israeli society along the lines of the government and the governed, shattering illusions of invincible military power and trustworthy leadership. Historically, this is the stuff of major political change. The 1973 war ultimately led to the 1977 “revolution” in Israeli politics that brought the Likud and Menahem Begin to power. It is too early to predict just what changes we will see and who will pick up the pieces, but a vulnerable populace without strong, in-touch leadership is surely one that is ripe for upheaval.
Bump
-----
Today's Jew and Israeli are different.............. somewhat like today's Democrat.
Bad times ahead for everyone!
I'm reading that Israel has only mobilized 5-10% of its forces against Hezbollah?
Second guessers. Israel will do fine.
That said, a needed wake-up call against the soft underbelly before having to fight a real army.
You attack the Hez-ebolas with all your might and Egypt would roll in from the flank.
Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel claims that it can mobilize over 600,000 troops, mostly reserves, within 48 hours.
NEGATORY GOOD BUDDY! We got us a CONVOY!
Outstanding article. Thanks for posting.
As it will in America if the Dhimmicrats take over.
Mobilizations are extrodinarily costly from an economic perspective. A call up of 50,000 would be equivalent of calling up 2.5 million in the US. That said, they seem to have adequate forces to do the task at hand, which is limited.
High volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel. also
2006israelwar or WOT
..................
Bibi arising, Bump!
OK
The surprise is - what?
"It is this idiotic need to try and force a Asymmetrical Warfare problem into the Conventional Warfare format by these "Conservative Military Experts" that renders their analysis completely ridiculous."
There it is!......
Once the dust settles, it seems likely that Olmert will be out. He's allowed 2500 rockets to be rained down on population centers for weeks now and also made the IDF look somewhat impotent. I believe the Israelis will get the job done in the end but then they're going to look internally and think "who got us into this mess?".
Agree. There are three divisions of called-up IDF reservists training up for something. Fight is still in its first round.
I don't think the problem is the Israeli military,but more a result of the terrorists hiding amongst civilians and using the population as human shields.As a result progress has been understandably slow.
"Secular Jews believe that it is the IDF rather than the God of Abraham that preserves Israel."
And religious Jews know that God expects you to do everything you are physically and mentally able to do.
The key statement by senior officers was that if this operation was presented as an exercise, it would receive failing marks. They just aren't doing the trick for whatever reason.IMHO
The point of this article is to help the "Terrorists".
The problem with these admiribable men’s analyses is they are trying to force a Conventional Warfare paradigm onto an Asymmetrical warfare problem. That simply will not work.
Start with our Revolution, Napoleon in Spain, Spain in South American, the US in Vietnam, Various European powers all over the world, the Nazis in Eastern Europe, the French then the Americans in Vietnam, the Russians in Afghanistan. A Conventional Warfare doctrine applied to an Asymmetrical problem always ends in the eventual bloody defeat for the Conventional Force.
Think of Israel as a boxer punching a sand bag. No matter how hard they hit, they cannot hold their fist to the bag forever. Thus as soon as they pull their fist back the weight of the sand forces the bag back to the same old shape. This time Israel, with the backing of the Bush Administration, is trying to find a way to empty the sand OUT of the bag so that when Israel's fist is removed, the bag does not simply revert to the same old form.
It's not as dramatic or made for TV sexy but it DOES have the virtue of possible achieving a workable longer-term strategic change for Israel. Israel is going for the long game, a solution to a decade long cancer NOT a drama queen ego feeding headline grabbing military blitz.
It would be utterly stupid for Israel to settle for just pruning back Hizbolla when they could possible completely uproots it.
All the various armchair Patton's plans would accomplish is a lot of dead Jews for a short term "Quick fix". Hizbolla would simply bleed the Israelis while pulling back into sanctuary areas in Syria and northern Lebanon. Then when the Israelis could no longer stand the blood and treasure long term occupation was costing them, Hizbolla would simply flow back into the same positions they hold now. And in a few years from now the Israelis would face the same crises in Lebanon
Like the US in Iraq, Israel seems to be trying for a long term FIX that uproots Hizbolla and creates a viable Lebanese Govt that can police its own territory. That is why the Israelis are interested in a NATO force to do in Lebanon what it is currently doing in Afghanistan. The UN has showed it simply is too corrupt and ineffective to manage peacekeeping duties. Israel, and the world, need a force that can keep out the Terrorists while the Lebanese build a viable nation-state that can provide long term stability. Thus the Israel and the US should be looking with interest to the French.
The French are the ideal choice because of their history with Lebanon. They have good troops with lots of peace keeping experience (Its their politics that are messed up, not their military) Being Lefties the Media will pretty much ignore the head cracking they need to do as peace keepers. They do not trigger the knee jerk hysteria British, American or Jewish troops would in the Arabs. For domestic consumption the French can spin this mission as one to protect the Muslims " stopping" the Israelis. France does not have any where near the existing military commitments that the US and Britain do so have the forces available to take this one. With France heading the mission Germany, Spain and the other reluctant nervous nellies among the old Europe nations would have political coverage to get involved. The Israelis get a Neutral Zone and make one front in the WOT someone else's headache. It sends a message to Syria and Iran that the EU is not divided on controlling their terrorists’ proxy forces and adds pressure on Tehran to make a deal on the nuclear issue since they are diplomatically isolated. It would be also be impossible for domestic political reasons for the French to let the mission fail. In face of the success we are having in Afghanistan and Iraq, France needs to prove itself a serious world player. This mission thus would be seen as a test of France's vision of Pan Europeanism.
The $64 billion question is will the French do it?
"Israel's Lost Moment" Washington Post Friday, August 4, 2006; By Charle Krualthammer
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/03/AR2006080301258.html
"CAN ISRAEL WIN?" New York Post July 22, 2206. By Ralph Peters
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/can_israel_win__opedcolumnists_ralph_peters.htm
Moreover, the current war is asymmetric, unlike the 1973 war, which was fought conventionally by opposing tanks and battalions. Apples and oranges, in short...
"A viable Lebanese Govt" consisting of Shias and Sunnies who will guard the Israeli interests?
They live in the Tel Aviv area, and are therefore not directly exposed to the missile attacks in the north
"The '73 war is the one the Israeli's don't talk much about because..........."
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22operation+nickel+grass%22&btnG=Google+Search
The object according to Patton is to make that other sombitch die for his country. That's what is unfolding.
"Attack rapidly, ruthlessly, viciously, without rest, however tired and hungry you may be, the enemy will be more tired, more hungry. Keep punching."
General George S. Patton
I don't think so.
I'm very familiar with what happened in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, and this article is right on the money historically.
I know much less about the state of readiness of Israel's reserves today, but the article has the ring of truth here too. I had some interesting jobs while I was in the U.S. Air Force during the Carter years, and we had similar problems. The public never knew, and the politicians did not WANT to know (or did not care...).
From what information is available to the public, I can also say Olmert would not get a passing grade from any War College on earth for the way he is handling this war at the strategic level. Given Olmert's lack of military experience and his leftist politics, I am not surprised to see this.
In fairness to Olmert, however, a caveat is needed at the strategic level. It is possible that something huge is hovering in the background that has led to a very strange way of fighting this war.
Even assuming something major is going on in the background, however, Olmert has still made himself sound stupid with all his comments about having already achieved victory when not a single Israeli objective has been achieved.
And religious Jews know that God expects you to do everything you are physically and mentally able to do.
G-d does expect you to do all that you are able to do with the tools He gave/gives you...and He also expects you to have faith in Him rather than in other people. The bottom line is that the Leftists and the secular people in Israel have failed miserably on 2 counts: first, in relying on the IDF (i.e. faith in "my own strong right arm") rather than in G-d, and in the failure to actually use anywhere near the full capabilities of the IDF.
Yes, counterterrorist operations are different from a battle with a regular army, but the simple fact is that Israel's leaders have blustered without following through (thereby violating the Talmud's dictum to "say little and do much"), and have left Syria and Iran untouched. Worse, they have placed their faith in other nations and in the UN, rather than in G-d and themselves, to successfully resolve this growing cancer.
No one sees the big picture here. The aim of this "war" is to get an international force to more of less neutralize Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon....
before the real threat of Iran and Syria can be delt with and it will, but don't tell anyone.
Great post. I like your thinking. Seems intelligent, fact-based, and well-researched, unlike some seen on this forum.
" Rommel...you magnificent bastard ...I READ YOUR BOOK! "
" Rommel...you magnificent bastard ...I READ YOUR BOOK! "
((Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)
LOL!
Hmmm, you win a big war, take a lot of territory and let your enemies live there, arm themselves, and attack you.
Gosh, I have no idea what's wrong.
Relatively easy to beat conventional Arab armies - Western Armies are made to do it.
Terrorism is something different. Western democracies might even be built to lose to it.
Great analogy!
"What's wrong?"
Seems like they don't make enough friends. Right now they are down to us. Not a long range solution for future generations.
....."Attack rapidly, ruthlessly, viciously, without rest, however tired and hungry you may be, the enemy will be more tired, more hungry. Keep punching."..............
I thought on this excellant reply overnight and think a reply is in order. I too am a Patton fan and perhaps my favorite quote is "Don't take counsel of your fears". Coupled with the "Dune" admonition "Fear is the mind Killer" it becomes a way of life.
In the persent context I wonder if Patton's advice is not being followed. The pressure has been applied by multiple attacks form several directions. As I type a massive invasion is being staged to launch ground troops to exterminate the Hezbollah troops on their home ground.
I think Ariel Sharon believed as Patton. He was a great warrior who attacked attacked attacked. Everybody knows he could have been in Cairo if not stopped by a cease fire. I think everyone knows the present attack will not be stopped by such this time.
I myself believe that Israel will not give in to another Political Cease Fire. People are tired of politics. I further believe that as the world watches Israel, it is also waiting for the inspiration a victory for Israel will inspire.
Maybe that "New World Order" will not be what the liberals imagined, if warriors could once again be proud of being warriors.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.