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Behind the Israeli Cabinet's Decisions (Is Israel Relaying A Cave-In Message To Hezbollah?)
Stratfor ^ | 07.27.2006 | Stratfor

Posted on 07/27/2006 6:50:14 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay

Israeli security Cabinet led by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert decided the military campaign in south Lebanon would not be expanded, and any modifications to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation, such as deploying more troops, would require Cabinet approval.

Israel is essentially broadcasting to the world that its political and military circles are severely divided over the current operation, and it might have no choice but to cave in to diplomatic pressure to put an end to the fighting and draw up a cease-fire. This might not be true to Israeli thinking, but it is certainly a message they are trying to send to Hezbollah's chain of command. Which then raises the question: Why?

The thought of Israel even considering scaling down its military operation at this point -- though golden news for Hezbollah -- carries devastating consequences for Israel. If the fighting were to come to a halt over the next few days, Hezbollah would claim victory and present itself as the only Arab force capable of standing up to Israeli aggression...surviving a fight against Israel represents a major win for the Islamist militant movement and sponsors in Iran and Syria -- something Israel, the United States and surrounding Arab regimes are unable to cope with.

It strikes us as exceedingly peculiar that Israel, a country with a heavy track record of fighting experience despite its youth, is so intent on promoting the idea its defense and political figures are running in circles trying to revise their military strategy while Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is brimming with confidence in his regular video appearances. It is simply not intelligent war strategy to expose your weaknesses in the midst of a major war campaign --unless your objective is to spread disinformation to prepare for a larger surprise.

(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: aoualiriver; basharalassad; bekaavalley; bentjbail; dontgowobbly; ehudolmert; golanibrigade; hezbollah; idf; israel; lebanon; litaniriver; military; nasrallah; syria
PoliWatch.Org's David R. Remer wrote:
"Terrorists are not counting on winning through force, but on winning more battles by surrender."

So will Israel's "cave-in" broadcast give Hezbollah, through this military and Cabinet divide, a sense of victory?

Remer goes on to say, "If civilized society continues to surrender those laws and principles which made them civilized and free, they lose battles to the terrorists. Fear dictates its own behavior and observes no principles. Fear seeks to either flee, or become more frightening than that which it fears. If civilized nations and their leaders act out of fear, they will lose to the terrorists. Terrorists are provoking civilized society to act afraid. They are provoking nations leaders to either cower, or counter with such violence and horror as to exceed that of the terrorists themselves. And in so doing, terrorists hope to show the world's people that the so called civilized nations are no better than the terrorists themselves. If they are allowed to show the world this, they succeed in creating a power struggle for the hearts and minds of the world's people."

My question simply is: Can a civilized society operating under civilized laws successfully wage an exploited media 24/7 prime-time war against an uncivilized society composed of terrorists-butchers, thugs and murderers?

1 posted on 07/27/2006 6:50:16 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: fight_truth_decay

I think we need to wait. Time may answer that question.


2 posted on 07/27/2006 6:53:26 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: fight_truth_decay

Not without message control. Not without winning the propaganda war.


3 posted on 07/27/2006 7:00:06 PM PDT by marron
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To: fight_truth_decay

If the purveyors of political correctness prevail, then Israel is doomed.


4 posted on 07/27/2006 7:02:08 PM PDT by vox humana
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To: fight_truth_decay

maybe Israel is just trying to set the islamo nazi's up for a dirty nuke! I like my terrorist nice and well done.


5 posted on 07/27/2006 7:02:22 PM PDT by MAD-AS-HELL (Put a mirror to the face of the republican party and all you'll see is a Donkey.)
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To: fight_truth_decay

Civiled societies civiled laws are TOO ambiguos and polically correct for the liberal bleeding hearts watching biased media 24/7 to allow it regardless of who it is, Soddam Insane, Kim Jong Makes me Ill, Stinky Imamadman, Sheehan Chavez, or the Koran kamikazee's.


6 posted on 07/27/2006 7:05:18 PM PDT by diverteach
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To: fight_truth_decay
Sure, easy as pie.

Can it remain a democracy and win? That is entirely up to its free people. If they want to, easy as pie. If they don't, no.

7 posted on 07/27/2006 7:07:19 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: fight_truth_decay

It's a coalition government. The lefties have too much power there right now. Shimon Peres is their equivalent of VP now.


8 posted on 07/27/2006 7:08:43 PM PDT by aynrandfreak (The Left hates America)
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To: Perdogg

".....unless your objective is to spread disinformation to prepare for a larger surprise."

Nasrallah always talks of "surprises".....hopefully IDF will just serve one


9 posted on 07/27/2006 7:10:16 PM PDT by Vn_survivor_67-68
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To: fight_truth_decay
Israel is essentially broadcasting to the world that its political and military circles are severely divided over the current operation, and it might have no choice but to cave in to diplomatic pressure to put an end to the fighting and draw up a cease-fire.

Why would that be surprising?

We are tired of fighting, we are tired of being courageous, we are tired of winning, we are tired of defeating our enemies, we want that we will be able to live in an entirely different environment of relations with our enemies. We want them to be our friends, our partners, our good neighbors, and I believe that this is not impossible.

10 posted on 07/27/2006 7:11:43 PM PDT by Sabramerican (Hold the Rice, Serve Bolton.)
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To: fight_truth_decay

I think it is what it is. Israel does not want to commit the forces and firepower necessary to win decisively. That may change, but at this time Israel does not seem to have the stomach for an all out fight. They are too afraid of taking losses and too frightened of the international whining which will ensue if Israel began delivering crushing blows.

As a result, at this moment in time, and with terrorist forces in Lebanon having not returned the 2 Israeli prisoners and still maintaining the capacity to lob 100+ missiles in Israel each day, Hizbullah is winning.

It has been truly sad to see Israel unwilling to fight to win. It is amazing to me that we in the West still fail to understand the true scale of what we are up against.


11 posted on 07/27/2006 7:18:38 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: fight_truth_decay
Some more interesting stuff in that report:
The Israeli Cabinet also agreed to send forces up to the Aouali River -- just north of Sidon in Lebanon -- as a necessary move to destroy Hezbollah's rocket-launching platforms, according to Israeli radio. This is an extensive reach into Lebanon that would place the IDF within striking distance of the Bekaa Valley -- Hezbollah's main base of operations. We also have received indications that reserves belonging to Israel's elite fighting force, the Golani Brigade, have already moved north up to the Bekaa Valley. Fighting on Hezbollah's turf in the Bekaa Valley will undoubtedly be the most difficult stage of Israel's military campaign. At the same time, moving ground forces into the Bekaa is also necessary for Israel to meet its objective of sterilizing Hezbollah's military capabilities.

Moving into the Bekaa Valley also complicates matters with Syria, which could very well view an Israeli push into the Bekaa as a trigger for a Syrian military response. Major smuggling routes for heroin and opium run through the Bekaa and provide a major source of income for Hezbollah forces and Alawite businessmen.


12 posted on 07/27/2006 7:20:38 PM PDT by untenured
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To: fight_truth_decay

"My question simply is: Can a civilized society operating under civilized laws successfully wage an exploited media 24/7 prime-time war against an uncivilized society composed of terrorists-butchers, thugs and murderers?"

In my opinion, if the media is not on your side, no.

The media, from what I have seen, is not on the side of the Israelis or the Americans.

Both the Israelis and Americans should keep the reporters as far from the fighting as they can be kept. Issue reports through public information officers on the progress or outcome of the battles.

As far as the reporters going to the enemy side, they should be considered enemy agents and killed where encountered.

I don't know about Israel but I do know that if it were not for the reporters and Democrat Party neither the war in Iraq nor the war in Afganistan would have lasted past 6 months.

If they stop before completing the job, they will live to sorely regret that decision.


13 posted on 07/27/2006 7:21:16 PM PDT by sport (cognizes)
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To: fight_truth_decay
I think that Israel does not want to chase the Hezbos away.
14 posted on 07/27/2006 7:21:17 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (999-TNS)
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To: Longbow1969

GOd help us if Israel loses this battle.


15 posted on 07/27/2006 7:21:56 PM PDT by silentknight
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To: Longbow1969
And, Israel continues to hold prisoner all the Palestinians that Hamas and Hezbollah said they wanted to trade for.

At the same time living conditions in South Lebanon have reached rock bottom, where they'll remain for a very long time too.

Best of all the IDF has had a chance to resurvey some of these areas to see what new holes have been dug.

16 posted on 07/27/2006 7:23:41 PM PDT by muawiyah (-/sarcasm)
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To: fight_truth_decay
No, the weak center-left, commies, cults, and tyrants run the world right now.

And most of their citizens, including Americans, just want it all the "icky" everyday stuff to go away.

An occasional blowing up of innocents on a train, bus, plane, in a cafe, club or school is OK, since it only happens once every couple of months.

And that's fine since we are soooooo good at mourning, crying, candle lighting, praying, and "coming together" in victimhood, for about 2 weeks.

Then it's back to Blockbuster, Oprah, People Mag, and soon, Monday Night Football.
17 posted on 07/27/2006 7:26:42 PM PDT by roses of sharon
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To: untenured

Thanks, I was allowed only 300 words..and subscription link...at that.


18 posted on 07/27/2006 7:34:23 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: untenured

Is it possible that Israel is trying to lure Syria into attaking IDF troops in Lebanon?


19 posted on 07/27/2006 7:38:58 PM PDT by airborne (Satan's greatest trick was convincing people he doesn't exist.)
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To: muawiyah
"Israel continues to hold prisoner all the Palestinians that Hamas and Hezbollah said they wanted to trade for."

The Pali's do not care about those prisoners. Remember, these arr a people who train kids to blow themselves up in order to kill a few Jews.

It is delusional to think they care about those prisoners the Israeli's hold.
20 posted on 07/27/2006 7:50:58 PM PDT by JSteff
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To: JSteff
The prisoners have families. Both Hamas and Hezbollah promised that they could do better than the Palestinian prime minister's government in getting them returned.

They failed, and now even their best budies, the Shia in Southern Lebanon, are sitting around in a very large outdoor slum.

21 posted on 07/27/2006 7:56:17 PM PDT by muawiyah (-/sarcasm)
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To: fight_truth_decay
"Terrorists are provoking civilized society to act afraid."

I'm shocked that Israel will be scaling down their operations in Lebanon. But I disagree that terrorism is causing them to be so fearful that they are giving up the fight. I think the reason why Israel may wind down their operation is most of the West are hounding them to do so, as well as Russia and China. But perhaps even more so is the liberal media who are crucifying the Jews by reporting a totally twisted, distorted view of this war. Israel is being painted as bullies and heartless aggressors who don't care about killing civilians. They are not just going up against Hezbollah, in a very real way they are up against an entire world living in blindness and denial of islam's designs on conquering the world, and a widespread hatred for Jews.

22 posted on 07/27/2006 8:32:38 PM PDT by TheCrusader
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To: TheCrusader
Israel may wind down their operation is most of the West are hounding them to do so,

The Fourteen Days we gave Israel.. I respect Condi Rice, but laying down a time-frame for the Israeli while practicing the opposite in our war on terror seems perhaps slightly hypocritical in thinking?

23 posted on 07/27/2006 8:55:39 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: fight_truth_decay
"The Fourteen Days we gave Israel.. I respect Condi Rice, but laying down a time-frame for the Israeli while practicing the opposite in our war on terror seems perhaps slightly hypocritical in thinking?"

Your observations and conclusions are astute. America has indeed limited Israel's time frame to wipe out Hezbollah, at a time when Bush should be sending in U.S. troops to help them wipe out these barbaric scum.

Today, once again, al Zawahiri has declared that islam is at war with the West when he announced his goal of making every nation in Europe a muslim nation. They are telling us their aims, just like Hiter did in the 1930's. And just like Western Europe and America back then, everybody is living in denial and ignoring the threat of ISLAM.

The clock is ticking while Iran builds a nuclear bomb and we are still just dicking around in Iraq fighting a politically correct, limited war that just isn't killing enough of the enemy, especially considering the time and money we have spent there. No world leaders, including Bush, are willing or able to understand that it is islam itself that is the enemy of the free world, not just a few "terrorists" among them.

24 posted on 07/27/2006 9:41:04 PM PDT by TheCrusader
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To: fight_truth_decay

No, the left's War on War(c) has castrated the civilized world. The insane thing is that in a war of survival we limit ourselves when ANSWER protests and bleats on about the disproportionate use of force.

Communism in sheeps clothing (ANSWER) has left us unwilling to stand up for our own culture and society, fascinating.


25 posted on 07/27/2006 10:20:43 PM PDT by reluctantwarrior (Strength and Honor, just call me Buzzkill for short......)
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To: muawiyah
"The [hezbullah[ prisoners have families."

Boo-fricking hoo.

their "families" would have held parties if those "prisoners" had "martyred" themselves while killing Jewish civilians instead of being captured, tried and imprisoned.

That sand-nazi slut who lured the Jewish teenager with internet sex and then had her jihadi scum friends slaughter him is one of those "prisoners".

So are bombers, stabbers, plotters, and expediters, all tried in Israeli courts that deal out more reasonable justice in one trial than Koranus courts have through history.

26 posted on 07/27/2006 11:12:17 PM PDT by Yehuda ("Land of the free, THANKS TO THE BRAVE!" (Choke on it, pinkos!))
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To: MAD-AS-HELL
maybe Israel is just trying to set the islamo nazi's up for a dirty nuke! I like my terrorist nice and well done.

The Jewish liberals are as bad as our democRATS!!!

27 posted on 07/27/2006 11:30:46 PM PDT by danamco
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To: Sabramerican

28 posted on 07/27/2006 11:36:49 PM PDT by Yehuda ("Land of the free, THANKS TO THE BRAVE!" (Choke on it, pinkos!))
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To: fight_truth_decay
the article asks why, this is my take on why using a simple analagy.

The Middle East is a pub or as you American say a bar.

All the Middle Eastern countries have a table in that pub.

The Palestine's, Hezballa are fighting with Israels table, they attack Israel, Israel is more than able to handle them, but does not flatten them why.

Its a small bar, if Israel punches too hard she will send them sprawling into other tables where Egypt and Jordon and Saudi Arabia sit.

The heads of those tables don't want to get involved but there are some who sit on those tables who do, and are waiting for the time when they can become topple the reigning heads of those tables, and lead those tables themselves. Israel knows this that is why she is determined to not let it become a all out bar brawl.

29 posted on 07/28/2006 3:00:54 AM PDT by tonycavanagh
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To: TheCrusader
re :and we are still just dicking around in Iraq fighting a politically correct, limited war that just isn't killing enough of the enemy.

As someone with experience in fighting these low intensity wars its not political correctness that dictates how the war is fought, but other factors such as we are in Iraq and Afghanistan supporting local governments.

Are intension is to stabilize both countries to such a state that they can deal with the insurgencies themselves.

While it is good to kill lots of the enemy killing a lot of civilians in the process is not.

Forget the Moral reasons, its a case we need those civilians support to win this war.

In Basra I saw this first hand as local people fed up with the insurgents came forward with intelligence, your American Troops are reporting the same thing.

We are winning slowly but getting it right, and every day we get it more right.

30 posted on 07/28/2006 3:06:56 AM PDT by tonycavanagh
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To: tonycavanagh
Good analogy. Of course most of the other tables at the bar hate Israel, but they know that he is good for business.
31 posted on 07/28/2006 5:56:51 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: aynrandfreak

"This might not be true to Israeli thinking, but it is certainly a message they are trying to send to Hezbollah's chain of command. Which then raises the question: Why?"

It isn't true, period. Israel knows that the damage it is doing with minimal forces on the ground is having an impact. The MSM just doesn't report it that way because they are too busy accusing Israel of atrocities while terrorist rockets are killing innocents.

This is a way for Iran and Syria to expose themselves by trying to rearm the hezzies. Basically they will be giving Israel intelligence that can be used in further strikes.

In addition, Israel already said that there will be no full scale invasion. So there is nothing new here. However Iran and Syria are now thinking because Israel just called up 30,000 reservists.

It is about killing terrorists and Israel will do whatever it has to do to survive. They seen what the UN will do for them and they are not so thrilled.


32 posted on 07/28/2006 6:11:19 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Democrats - The reason we need term limits)
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To: redgolum
Thanks I am glad someone gets it, Israel is not a appeasing nation she knows where that leads but she knows she cant go all out either.

They have a name for it unbalanced warfare.

33 posted on 07/28/2006 7:46:44 AM PDT by tonycavanagh
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To: Yehuda; muawiyah
"The [hezbullah[ prisoners have families." Boo-fricking hoo

Time magazine, most recent issue, has a two page pictorial spread of a woman sadly looking over the many caskets arranged in rows of Hezbullah. Boo-fricking hoo is right. I tossed the Time magazine back to the stack in disgust!

34 posted on 07/28/2006 6:34:07 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: Yehuda
Taking that comment out of context certainly demonstrates your ability to "spin", but you totally misrepresent the meaning by doing so. This had to do with the issue of what sort of interest Hezbollah had in the Palestinians held in Israeli jails, and what sort of leverage could be applied to them.

So, real smart buddy. Next time keep your Islamofascist mits off my posts, OK?!

35 posted on 07/28/2006 8:22:36 PM PDT by muawiyah (-/sarcasm)
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To: muawiyah

still drinking, I see.


36 posted on 07/29/2006 7:20:32 PM PDT by Yehuda ("Land of the free, THANKS TO THE BRAVE!" (Choke on it, pinkos!))
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To: fight_truth_decay

bttt


37 posted on 07/29/2006 7:26:02 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet-pray for Israel))
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To: Yehuda

You're a real sweetheart. Guess getting picked up by the cops delayed your response until this evening.


38 posted on 07/29/2006 7:31:06 PM PDT by muawiyah (-/sarcasm)
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To: muawiyah

"Guess getting picked up by the cops delayed your response until this evening."

Projecting? Are they outside your door right now for your dui?

Only an idiot or a drunk would call me an islamifascist.

You're the one who showed some sympathy for Hez' "feelings" for the terrorist scum imprisoned in Israel.


39 posted on 07/29/2006 10:36:37 PM PDT by Yehuda ("Land of the free, THANKS TO THE BRAVE!" (Choke on it, pinkos!))
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To: Yehuda
Idiot, I didn't show sympathy for anybody's anything.

I simply noted that their families, even if they are all scum, might have some sort of interest in them ~ for instance, as an income source later on ~ you can get good money carrying bombs you know ~ well, you would know that better than anyone, and I bet you can tell us the price.

May I suggest you learn to read English. Arabic nuance in English context yields confusion to many, and your one of the many.

40 posted on 07/30/2006 4:39:41 AM PDT by muawiyah (-/sarcasm)
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To: fight_truth_decay
Time magazine, most recent issue, has a two page pictorial spread of a woman sadly looking over the many caskets arranged in rows of Hezbullah. Boo-fricking hoo is right. I tossed the Time magazine back to the stack in disgust!

Let us all look forward to the day when that trash-heap of a magazine is no longer in business.
41 posted on 07/30/2006 4:46:15 AM PDT by cgbg (MSM aid and comfort to the enemy costs American lives.)
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To: muawiyah

"nuance"?

try using " /s" next time.


42 posted on 07/30/2006 5:34:17 AM PDT by Yehuda ("Land of the free, THANKS TO THE BRAVE!" (Choke on it, pinkos!))
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To: Yehuda
Time for you to 'fes' up and admit you totally misread my post ~ all you were interested in was tearing out a couple of words and misuing them.

You've done this before you know ~ and with quite a bit of regularity. It's enough to make me get the feeling you are an antiIsraeli Islamofascist disrupter.

43 posted on 07/30/2006 5:46:43 AM PDT by muawiyah (-/sarcasm)
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To: muawiyah

"Time for you to 'fes' up and admit you totally misread my post"

Time for you to admit that you can't write clearly.

" It's enough to make me get the feeling you are an antiIsraeli Islamofascist disrupter."

Nice try.


44 posted on 07/30/2006 5:50:52 AM PDT by Yehuda ("Land of the free, THANKS TO THE BRAVE!" (Choke on it, pinkos!))
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To: Yehuda

You sound like the guy at CAIR who disavowed the Seattle shooter, but did it within the context of a message that Israel was stirring up trouble in the Middle East.


45 posted on 07/30/2006 5:55:12 AM PDT by muawiyah (-/sarcasm)
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To: fight_truth_decay

..........So will Israel's "cave-in" broadcast .....

It can be argued that the action was not a cave in but an acknowledgement that the hidden multinational diplomatic effort is suceeding in a manner positive to Israel.

The announcement of French military involvement coupled with the Lebanese army is a most desirable outcome. The degree of Hezbollah disablement is not really known but it is severe. If rockets are ceased and there is no ability to rebuild the Hezbollah military capability the solutin is for Israel a good and positive course.

There is a lot of antiFrench sentiment on this board but I think it is not completely justified. If the Lebanese government and military is allowed to grow under the French protectorate it will be a good thing. It will stifle Iranian influence..... the ultimate goal. Iran will be further contained in it's box.


46 posted on 07/30/2006 6:01:47 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. We will screw you inshallah)
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To: muawiyah

"You sound like the guy at CAIR "

And you sound like you're talking about yourself.

But keep trying; Jack Bauer needs a few more minutes to trace your ip route.


47 posted on 07/30/2006 6:14:53 AM PDT by Yehuda ("Land of the free, THANKS TO THE BRAVE!" (Choke on it, pinkos!))
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