NHC - Possibility Exists For Tropical Depression to Form During Next Day or Two

NOAA - National Hurricane Center Miami ^ | July 17, 2006 | FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[HAL9000]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172108
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND A POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GALE AREA IS RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS PASSING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA.  THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS GALE AREA CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNTO1 KWBC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER LOW. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[HAL9000]

[CindyDawg]

It's been too quiet.

[STARWISE]

Sure had .. blow away, out to sea, storm.

[lexington minuteman 1775]

Well it won't stay quiet forever.

[cripplecreek]

Looks like a noisy night here in Michigan.

[STARWISE]

Just getting severe thunderstorm watch notice in Chicago and outlying areas.

[NautiNurse]

[NautiNurse]

On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> .

[darkwing104]

Too far north to effect me. Looks like the East Coast will get get the storms this year.

[appleharvey]

Damn you Karl Rove! Damn you to hell for this weather manipulation!

[JellyJam]

We had a huge severe thunderstorm here in Sarasota about three hours ago ... flooded my backyard. Must've been at least 5 inches.

[onyx]

The Cayman's had an earthquake last week. I thought "oh-oh."

[Shimmer128]

Pretty far north, isn't it?

[Yorlik803]

well there goes the gas prices.............

[Miztiki]

I can't believe we haven't had any hurricanes yet this season. That's good though!

[MikefromOhio]

You are looking at the same thing I am then judging by that picture :)

I think that Sub/Extra-tropical low up by NOva Scotia formed a day too late to get serious consideration.

It certainly looked better organized at times than Alberto did, especially this afternoon.

[o_zarkman44]

A good excuse for gas prices to hit $4.00 a gallon?

[encm(ss)]

No oil and gas rigs in the North Atlantic. No wind machines in Martha's vineyard.

[SouthTexas]

Looks like we're good on this one.

[metmom]

I can't believe we haven't had any hurricanes yet this season. That's good though!

Not necessarily. The hurricanes passing over the water tend to stir it up and bring cooler water into the area. The cooler the water temp, the less hurricane fuel. If the water sits and warms, it will be more to feed the hurricane.

[SE Mom]

Well, well, well.

Look at that! I figured we had another month before we would be looking at these maps:)

[STARWISE]

They did? That must've given you the tummy doodles. I didn't hear that .. has this happened before?

[onyx]

It gave her a start --- like "whoa!"

[STARWISE]

Oh my goodness .. my son has a house there .. was it widespread throughout the town?

[PeteB570]

We here in the Carolinas generally don't get slammed until September.

For this being a "killer" year it is getting off to a slow start.

[STARWISE]

Shhhhhhhhhh

[DAVEY CROCKETT]

Thanks for the ping I am ready.

[HAL9000]

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly chart -

[NautiNurse]

The models don't know what to do with it

[RDTF]

thanks for the ping!

[paulat]

Damn you Karl Rove! Damn you to hell for this weather manipulation!

[Nachoman]

Its not so much how the hurricane seasons starts as it is how it ends.

[STARWISE]

That looks wacky ...

From Accuweather -- what the heck is that just off Africa?

[Dog Gone]

Keep an eye on that blob emerging from Africa. I know these can often be fakeouts that fizzle, but it looks impressive tonight.

[NautiNurse]

Recon may take a peek at it tomorrow.

[brytlea]

Blessedly so!
susie

[brytlea]

An ill wind, no doubt.
susie

[MikefromOhio]

yeah...

I wonder what they will find.

97L doesn't seem to be getting better organized, but there isn't any shear, so it could be a good thing.

[MikefromOhio]

yeah...

I wonder what they will find.

97L doesn't seem to be getting better organized, but there isn't any shear, so it could be a good thing.

[metmom]

The water looks pretty warm off the coast of Africa there. It's in the 85 degree range.

[CindyDawg]

Why does that happen? I keep posting double too. I only tap post once though.

[MikefromOhio]

well FR went down (I think) for a while, I wonder if there's a bit of a glitch?

Who knows....

[MikefromOhio]

We are approaching Cape Verde season, but generally the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are where the best upper level support is.

[CindyDawg]

No, It happens occasionally with me.

[MikefromOhio]

hmm....

I don't know....

[VeniVidiVici]

Cruddy weather all summer so far. Overcast, early rains, tropical wave. Blech.

And no hurricanes. What can we get stressed about if there are no hurricanes?

[I still care]

The weatherguy on Fox has all year been saying how this is going to be a tough year for the east coast.

[SouthTexas]

LOL hadn't seen that yet! General consesus is that they have no idea. ;)

[SouthTexas]

consesus = consensus

Time for bed.

[metmom]

What can we get stressed about if there are no hurricanes?

What happens when we finally do...