For Democrats, Wave Is Building

Washington Post ^ | 7/16/06 | Thomas E. Mann

[Coop]

There's probably no way congressional Republicans can lose this fall, no matter how unpopular President Bush is or how unhappy the voters are with the war in Iraq. That's the prevailing view in Washington today.

But it's wrong.

If history is any guide, we're heading into a major political storm. And that means we could see a national tide in November that will sweep the Democrats back into the majority.

Virtually every public opinion measure points to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane gathering...

But many analysts have noted the absence of strategic behavior on the part of the Democrats, who have failed to recruit good candidates and have allowed the Republicans to maintain a fundraising advantage...

Over the past year, the Cook Political Report has increased the number of Republican seats it considers highly vulnerable from two to 10, and those it considers somewhat vulnerable from 16 to 25. Eighteen others are potentially vulnerable. That's a total of 53 GOP seats at risk, double the number of a year ago. During the same period, the number of competitive Democratic seats declined from 14 to 10;, while the total number of Democratic seats at risk remained at 21...

[Coop]

I think this Brookings cheerleader is being overly optimistic, but of course it is possible. Serves as a potent reminder of Judiciary Chairman Johny Conyers, Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Jack Murtha, etc.

I hope some of the "real" conservatives around here think long and hard between now and November.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

There's going to be a lot of crow served in November.

[Coop]

A little more incentive to continue our quest to redeploy Johnny Murtha. Plus, wouldn't it just rip the libs' hearts out if they missed taking over by one seat... in PA-12?? :-)

[patton]

Sarcasm will get you nowhere, coop.

[Maelstorm]

Yes they had better.

[Billthedrill]

I have a rule of thumb for these "momentum is building" stories - they're a pitiable admixture of wishful thinking and an attempt to sway public opinion, and the more crushing and inevitable their predictions, the further they're wrong.

[Uncle Vlad]

A couple of months ago, I was so frustrated with the so-called Republican "leadership," I seriously considered staying home in November. I've since changed my mind. Why? Not because the Republican "leadership" doesn't deserve to be shown the door--they do. But we need to start purging the RINOs, who are ruining the country, and support the real conservatives, who are trying to save it.

[Coop]

I tend to agree with you, and do hope you're (we're) right.

[cmsgop]

There will be No Rat Tsunami

[Coop]

I'm not following you.

But actually, sarcasm has worked quite well for me. Except perhaps in my marriage!

[Liberty Valance]

If they build that wave any higher they will finally jump the shark.

[Perdogg]

Historically, with a some exceptions (1990, 1994,& 2002), economic issues drive midterm elections. I say the GOP will pick up house seats.

[Coop]

But we need to start purging the RINOs, who are ruining the country, and support the real conservatives, who are trying to save it.

Exactly. Take 'em out in the primaries. And do like some and stop supporting the RNC or NRCC (and be sure to tell 'em why), but definitely still support conservative candidates!

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[operation clinton cleanup]

have allowed the Republicans to maintain a fundraising advantage

Have allowed? How does that work? Polls are one thing, but people who contribute money tend to show up at the voting booth.

[Jameison]

"Virtually every public opinion measure points to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane gathering..."

You don't say.
Like that category 5 tsunami that swept the RATS into power in 2002 and 2004 I suppose?
I seem to remember the same jingoistic cheer leading from the bottom feeders at the Washington Post, at this same stage in 2002 and 2004, only for them to start whimpering about "fixed Diebold" machines after their RATS paymasters got clobbered yet again.
When will they learn?
Sigh.

[REDWOOD99]

First you beat the other team. Then you work on improving your own.

[Celtjew Libertarian]

In '94 there was no real sense of how strong the GOP would be until a week or two before the election. Even then, the GOP takeover of Congress, as well as several of the governors races (Pataki over Cuomo in NY and some guy -- I forget who -- over Richards in Texas, for two), came as a surprise.

The fact that the Democratic wave is being called now leads me to believe that it's going to crest before election day.

[abclily]

Wave is building??? Mann is dreaming!!!

[Paperdoll]

I will continue voting Republican inspite of my disillusionment. But I'm afraid the trend will not reverse no matter who wins, because the same group has been behind the scenes since, someone reminded me yesterday, President Wilson.

[nascarnation]

Indiana has instituted a strict photo law ID for voting
It will be interesting to see how rat totals trend down in this fall's election

[rod1]

Hope somebody actually calls Mr. Mann on this come November. Do any of these guys that get it wrong more oftern than right actually pay any career price?

Speaking of that why is Zogby still in business. or the bald-headed CNN poll-a-day dude.

[alrea]

And that means we could see a national tide in November that will sweep the Democrats back into the majority.

the voices of terrorists and homosexuals will finally be heard

[jan in Colorado]

But we need to start purging the RINOs, who are ruining the country, and support the real conservatives, who are trying to save it.

Amen!

[LS]

These pundits never bother to eat crow, just like Cook and Sabato said nothing after their failed prognostications of 2002 and 2004.

I think my prediction of a net GOP GAIN of one Senate seat might be in trouble, but I don't see us losing (net) a Senate seat (+1 in MN, -1 in PA, all else a wash). I still think we can net a few House seats (Bean in IL, for ex.). And I don't see any GOP house people, except Hostetler in IN and maybe Ney in OH, who are in that much trouble.

But keep in mind, FOREIGN AFFAIRS BREAK STRONGLY IN THE GOP FAVOR. Any terrorism, any mideast instability and people look at the Dems and go "Eeeeeewwwwwww."

[roses of sharon]

Why not, it would be a great relief for Americans to have NO bad "news" on TV anymore, all sweetness and light, peace and prosperity, no one in gov will make a single mistake, their will no more natl sec leaks, no more corruption reported, no more bad economic news, no more hurricanes or wars.

LOL, Oprah and the NYT will save us.

[John Jorsett]

If they keep on their present path, the Democrats will alienate a lot more voters than Republicans will. They're going after Lieberman like he's an apostate, and Barbara Boxer -- liberalism taken human form -- is getting tomatoes thrown at her for supporting him. Americans don't like shrill, and they for sure don't like fanaticism, and them's the main commodities on offer from the Democrats these days.

[The Lion Roars]

Articles like these help unite the conservative base.

[RobFromGa]

THREADS RE: MIDTERM 2006 ELECTIONS
HOW TO ELECT A CONSERVATIVE SENATE
RobFromGa's SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- JULY 2006

[Coop]

First you beat the other team. Then you work on improving your own.

Amen!

[centurion316]

This article reflects a certain inalienable truth: The Democrats are entitled to rule. This right should never be circumvented by the irrational actions of a few million voters. Votes shouldn't count, and voting should only be allowed when the outcome of Democrat success is certain. Don't you people understand this?

This unnatural state of affairs is completely due to those pesky Republicans and only because they are craftier and better organized than the rightful rulers, the Democrats.

Thus spake the Brookings Institution through their prophet, the Washington Post.

[COEXERJ145]

I swear, the MSM just recycles their articles, changes the dates and a few names, and publishes the same old stuff over and over.

[Coop]

You're right. And a lot of folks like Joe Lieberman. Heck, I don't agree with him most of the time, but he does come across as a likeable fellow.

Although he still sounds like that dude from Alf.

But your point is well taken. Centrists and even left-of-centers are not going to take kindly to his treatment, especially if he is defeated in the primary. But of course it will all come back to how much people (besides us political junkies) are even paying attention if/when it occurs.

[TSchmereL]

They don't eat crow because they are not trying to predict the future. They are just "talking up" their Democrat cause and "pumping up" the confidence of their readers. They will have thousands of conspiracy laden theories for why things did not pan out after they are proved wrong.

[Coop]

Articles like these help unite the conservative base.

Maybe. But not as much as candidates like Jack Murtha do! ;-)

[jazusamo]

That supposed wave took a small hit this last week with the despicable video they had to withdraw. Not a week passes that the Dems don't step on their umm, pantleg in some way.

Repubs are going to gain seats in the House IMO, and Diana Irey will be one of the gains.

http://www.irey.com/

[Brad from Tennessee]

A wave is beginning to build against sleezeball Jack Murtha in his Pennsylvania district.This is a new anti-Murtha web site set up by Vietnam vet and former SEAL Larry Bailey:

http://www.bootmurtha.com/

[kcvl]

Thomas E. Mann

September 10, 1944) is a political scientist, author, and pundit who works at the Brookings Institution.


During the administration of Richard M. Nixon, Brookings was named to Nixon's famous enemies list, due to its criticism of Nixon domestic and foreign policies. Nixon ordered a burglary of Brookings in 1971, looking for leaked government information about the Vietnam War. The Nixon administration also considered firebombing the Brookings Institution. [3]

On October 2, 2004, Vice President Al Gore delivered a speech on Economic Policy at Brookings. Conservatives accused Brookings of hosting a 'campaign speech'.

[misterrob]

The party in control of the WH loses seats in Congress and the Senate which often leads to lame duck status for the last two years of the term.

The stakes are obviously high here but let's not forget history.

That said, the Republicans are in some disarray right now. Too many people have thrown Bush under the bus on Iraq and the immigration (and to a lesser extent) and spending issues have had a major impact on the conservatives. They are going to have some difficulty firing up the base just so the other guys don't win because appealing to fear only gets you so far. If the party was on the Right side of spending, immigration and even the WOT the Dems would have no chance.

[TSchmereL]

http://www.discoverthenetwork.org/groupProfile.asp?grpid=6890

[Coop]

[Coop]

The GOP is on the right side of the war on terror. For you to imply otherwise is ridiculous.

[Coop]

LOL! That image was originally one of pom-poms, but I have fallen victim to the dreaded photo switcheroo!

[OKIEDOC]

How in the world could any SANE voter with common sense possibly vote Democrat with our and the worlds security on the line.

Liberals are just not mature enough to run our government.

Scary thought is that Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosie, Cynthia McKinney, John Murtha,Maxine Waters, Hairy Reid, Dick Durbin or Russ Feingold would have any say in what our government does one way or the other.

[Grampa Dave]

More ramblings from a pro homosexual marxist trying make his fantasies into real news.

[GulfBreeze]

I hope you have called your local GOP congressional candidate to volunteer and donate to make sure that Crow is served in the direction your thinking.

$50 and 20 hours from each of a thousand "almost" engaged people in a candidates district can make an incredible difference in a campaign.

I like spirit but let's put action along with it.

Chris

[Coop]

$50 and 20 hours from each of a thousand "almost" engaged people in a candidates district can make an incredible difference in a campaign. I like spirit but let's put action along with it.

Well said!

[quantim]

Speaking of eating crow, I just put this up in the MI state board, yet another poll today suggesting MI is going to throw out its top socialist gubner:

It's going to leave a mark.

===

DeVos apparently leading in poll of Michigan governor's race 7/16/2006, 10:14 a.m. ET The Associated Press

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — A poll published Sunday shows Republican challenger Dick DeVos apparently leading Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm.

Forty-seven percent of 632 likely voters said they would vote for the Ada businessman, 42 percent said they would vote for Granholm, 8 percent were undecided and 3 percent were counted as "other," the Detroit Free Press reported.

http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/business/index.ssf?/base/news-36/1153059570322300.xml&storylist=mibusiness

[PattonFan]

If history is any guide, we're heading into a major political storm.

History is right, a political AND social storm is arriving.

And that means we could see a national tide in November that will sweep the Democrats back into the majority

Not necessarily. Both parties have led us on the path to destruction. I see politicians with real, patriotic and/or conservative values being voted in and anti-USA ploiticos being voted out..no matter the party.

Because one party may appear to be losing does not mean another will win..the USA is tired of the status quo,We the People will vote for OUR COUNTRY this time. MHO