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Global Warming Kicked 2005 Hurricanes Up A Notch
Environmental News Service ^ | June 26, 2006

Posted on 06/27/2006 9:34:22 AM PDT by cogitator

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To: ClearCase_guy
We can just agree to disagree, since I consider that scientific literature to be agenda-driven crap. I grant that temperatures are rising. I grant that CO2 levels are rising. I laugh at the idea that humans are changing the global climate.

Fine with me, but I wonder why you would think that a 100 ppm increase in global atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have no significant effects at all.

21 posted on 06/27/2006 10:22:29 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: palmer
Not completely sure but probably oceanic surface from the lack of clouds. The other effect is the removal of water vapor from the upper troposphere reducing the atmospheric warming.

I probably didn't quite get your point. I asked because hurricane winds do cool the surface ocean due to mixing. There was an event a couple of years ago when one hurricane hit the cooler "wake" of a previous hurricane and lost significant strength over the cooler waters. But I think your point was about something else.

22 posted on 06/27/2006 10:24:24 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator; tertiary01
I have extreme confidence that the CO2 concentrations measured in ice core bubbles are accurate,

Accurate as far as I can tell to a century or in timescale. Comparing any past century averages to the past centuries increase does not provide a lot of data points. Comparing ice cores to CO2 measurements made other ways like in the atmosphere is silly.

23 posted on 06/27/2006 10:24:26 AM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: cogitator

Mixing cooler water to the surface doesn't change the earth's energy balance. BUt concentrated convection does do that by suppressing wider convection and high clouds, less upper atmospheric water vapor, etc.


24 posted on 06/27/2006 10:26:46 AM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: palmer; cogitator
Mixing cooler water to the surface doesn't change the earth's energy balance.

On second thought, it could lower the amount of heat radiated to space and warm the earth overall. I'm not sure how much, something to research.

25 posted on 06/27/2006 10:30:12 AM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: palmer; tertiary01
Comparing ice cores to CO2 measurements made other ways like in the atmosphere is silly.

I completely disagree.

I'm not sure what DE08 and DSS are, but all of the other points are from ice cores. The black line is the Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 measurement curve.

This figure shows it a little better. There's another better one that I can't seem to find at the moment.


26 posted on 06/27/2006 10:34:24 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: ClearCase_guy

Exactly. They insist -- dishonestly -- that it's a given that man causes global warming.


27 posted on 06/27/2006 10:41:41 AM PDT by Zon (Honesty outlives the lie, spin and deception -- It always has -- It always will.)
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To: cogitator; tertiary01

Your pictures are highly deceptive. They imply ice core resolution that is simply impossible in any sample other than a modern (uncompacted) one. The first one overlays measurements so you can't even see if there any ice measurements underneath (not that they matter). The second is pretty lacking, I'm sure you can find better. In the meantime, here's a better source, showing error bars on most of the samples. Note the absence of a hockey stick.


28 posted on 06/27/2006 10:56:24 AM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: cogitator; tertiary01
Oops. I suppose I should post my link: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/abstracts/indermuehle99nat.html


29 posted on 06/27/2006 10:59:07 AM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: cogitator

I have a couple of problems with this. One, none of the "global warming" theories explains why Mars' polar caps are melting nor why the storms on Saturn have become more intense. To date, neither astronomers nor skulking by the Hubble telescope have shown any evidence of either SUVs or humans on Mars.

Also, Dr. Sallie Baliunas explains that of the 11 gases that comprise the so-called "Greenhouse Gases", we understand the influences of fewer than half, including CO2. And, of the gases that we DO understand, we still don't fully understand how they interact or affect the earth's environment.


30 posted on 06/27/2006 11:00:12 AM PDT by DustyMoment (FloriDUH - proud inventors of pregnant/hanging chads and judicide!!)
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To: palmer
They imply ice core resolution that is simply impossible in any sample other than a modern (uncompacted) one.

It's not a surprise that ice core CO2 data from older periods has decreased temporal resolution. But the concentrations of CO2 measured in the bubbles are accurate.

Where's your figure? Here's another one (with error bars; this might be the one you were planning to post):


31 posted on 06/27/2006 11:04:38 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: palmer

Now that we've seen it three times, I guess we understand it. ;-)


32 posted on 06/27/2006 11:05:24 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: DustyMoment; cogitator
global warming on Triton
global warming on Enceladus
global warming on Pluto
global warming on Mars

The last one is not a scientific analysis, I have studied the (woefully inadequate) Mars temperature data and see no global warming or cooling. I believe the ice cap melting is, most likely, a local effect.

33 posted on 06/27/2006 11:06:29 AM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: DustyMoment
One, none of the "global warming" theories explains why Mars' polar caps are melting nor why the storms on Saturn have become more intense.

I don't know about Saturn; read this about Mars:

Global warming on Mars?

Also, Dr. Sallie Baliunas explains that of the 11 gases that comprise the so-called "Greenhouse Gases", we understand the influences of fewer than half, including CO2.

The statements of Dr. Baliunas, an accomplished scientist and also a noted climate change skeptic, should be compared to the mainstream scientific opinion.

34 posted on 06/27/2006 11:08:41 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: DustyMoment
And, of the gases that we DO understand, we still don't fully understand how they interact or affect the earth's environment.

I agree that a complete and thorough determination is still a way off.

35 posted on 06/27/2006 11:10:41 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator

My two postings beats your single posting.


36 posted on 06/27/2006 11:17:02 AM PDT by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: cogitator

It is my understanding that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere reaches a saturation point, a point that after which you can add all the CO2 you like to the atmosphere and it will not increase temperatures any further. It is my understanding that the maximum warming that could occur with additional CO2 is about 1 degree celsius. You could take CO2 all the way to 6000ppm at which point it would become letahl to humans and you would still only have the one degree of warming.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't believe I am.


37 posted on 06/27/2006 11:24:47 AM PDT by jsh3180 (mile marker 17 Florida Keys)
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To: palmer
Here is the figure I was looking for:

Byrd station is not the GISP or Vostok CO2 data. The small figure below kinda shows how the Vostok record splices into the modern era. Essentially when CO2 rose at the end of the last glacial period, it went up to ~280 ppm, and that's where it stayed until the slight rise began in the mid-1700s/early 1800s.


38 posted on 06/27/2006 11:26:31 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator
From the first sentence of the article: "Global warming created about half the extra warmth in the waters of the tropical North Atlantic that stimulated hurricane formation in 2005, while natural cycles were a minor factor,..."

Let's see... Global warming caused "about half". How much does that leave for "natural cycles"? I think I can handle the math. It would be "about half". Somehow the "about half" caused by natural cycles is a "minor factor" but the "about half" caused by presumed global warming is something very significant.

If it wasn't for the dire consequences of governments acting on such nonsense, the obvious bias of this article would be amusing.

39 posted on 06/27/2006 11:29:49 AM PDT by William Tell (RKBA for California (rkba.members.sonic.net) - Volunteer by contacting Dave at rkba@sonic.net)
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To: ClearCase_guy

I want them to tell me why it is 82 degrees here today. In all my life in NM there has never been an 82 day in summer w/o rain and heavy cloud cover. The sun is shining and it's quite cool out there, it should be 99 or 100 degrees by now.


40 posted on 06/27/2006 11:34:27 AM PDT by tiki
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