Posted on 05/28/2006 5:20:16 PM PDT by Dog
No one from the British to the Pak Gov't has really controlled the the border regions of Stan - Simply a different way of life - And while the Pak Gov't doesn't necessarily control vast sections of the border regions they do use it for resources and therefore the notion of them not claiming it as their own just isn't an option.
Nor would bombing the hell out of it do much good - The terrain doesn't lend itself to mass bombing with any real effectiveness. Now strikes based off good HUMINT is a complete other story -
Furthermore we do have a good idea of his general whereabouts.....but when one understands the terrain of the Pak border region we are discussing that doesn't do much good in actually killing him -
Understand the Stan / Pak border region stretches over 1,500 miles lone which includes every landscape from desert to snow-capped mountains.
There is no need for UBL to put himself at the mercy of the Mullah's of Iran (a group he has never got along with)...no the Pak border region provides all the security he needs in comparison.
Time was on his side in the short run....but that variable is moving back in our direction now....we've put the sweat equity along with spilling the blood needed for it to do so. We'll put guns on him one of these days.
Completely wrong on both accounts - UBL is very much alive and being hunted by brave warriors risking all 24-7 (just as is Zawahiri, M. Omar,J Haqqani, G Hekmatyar and several other HVTs we are hunting in the Stan/Pak border regions).
Furthermore killing UBL will have a much larger impact then most acknowledge.
Killing UBL is needed for simply the justice of it - For those lives lost due to the attack on this great nation on Sept 11th, 2001 - But also for the lives lost of brave warriors who have been hunting him since late 2001 - The risks that have been taken in tracking him down (along with killing over 3/4 of al-Qeada's top leadership) most are hardly aware of - These men deserve to see the job finished.
However more importantly (to a degree) is that most underestimate the value that UBL still manages to hold (within the radical Muslim street throughout the ME...but also importantly within the Afghan/Pak border regions)...and simply because he has managed to stay alive (along with Zawahiri) - Another "aura" of sorts has managed to build up around him precisely because of this fact. He remains alive.
Killing him would radiate a resounding defeat throughout not only the Afghan/Pak border region....but throughout the radical Muslim street as well. Some like to talk in circles about how the "cause" is larger then just one person (and this is certainly true...without question)...but killing UBL will be an endgame outcome that will stick in the world's collective mind (including those radical Muslim wannabes)...UBL is dead. The United States tracked him down and killed him. Full-stop, end of discussion (no amount of psycho babble will be able to deny this fact).
Killing UBL will also recapture the 10 second mindset of a majority of Americans. It will not only remind them of the WOT....but it will reshape their mindset that the American military (headed by CIC GWB) is methodically and deliberately tracking these SOB's down!! (just like he has quietly and steadfastly said over these past 5 years).
The American public will see it as a complete victory (one in which the fact-less MSM can't spin negative no matter how hard they will try). The American people deserve this victory.
And when we get it...we'll cherish it. And that in itself will provide a new rededicated "will" by the American public not just to this CIC but to this whole just cause (to continue to see this WOT through).
Lastly our warriors deserve it (which goes along with point one).
So -
1. Justice is owed.
2. Killing UBL is a resounding defeat that the radical Muslim street will not only feel...but won't be able to deny or spin. A sense of the inevitability of defeat will only further drape itself over them
3. His death will bring clarity back to the American publics mindset in this WOT - While at the same time bringing back a level of loyalty and respect to our CIC for quietly and steadfastly showing the resolve he has for the last 5 years.
4. His death = complete victory (in one aspect of the WOT) - A victory that can't be denied.
5. Our warriors deserve it and a good morale boost while not needed is always welcome...and this one will have certainly been earned / owed.
DevSix ---- well said!
The Democrats will just whine that if a Democrat was President, Bin Laden would have been killed less than a week after 9/11. They care nothing about Bin Laden. Most of them think Haliburton hijacked those planes.
Who cares what the silly DEM's will say - As my post pointed out the reality of why it will matter when we kill him and the impact it will have.
And it's going to happen....
I think we should know (a) that he is *somewhere,* (b) that Pakistan will either say this or say that, and (c) that what Pakistan says just *might* be disinformation to keep Osama feeling as if he's safe when he's not.
The nether regions of Dir would be promising!
I think Russia is hiding him.
Hezballah is smart enough to operate slightly under the radar screen. They don't hit Americans outside of Lebanon so people think we can avoid them here.
I would believe it, except for reasons 1 and 4, which I stated in post 16.
My point in mentioning Hezbollah was to demonstrate the fact Iran openly funds and supports known terrorist groups. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for the same regime to provide aid and comfort to an individual/group like Bin Laden and al Qaeda. It certainly wouldn't be difficult, from a logistics standpoint. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran all border on each other.
Nope - There are plenty of ways to indirectly put the word out that UBL is in Iran (without the need of directly exposing Intel sources in the least).
And we are doing just this regarding the Pak border regions if you read between the lines -
He's in the Pak border region (along with Zawahiri, M. Omar, J Haqqani and G Hekmatyar) - UBL would never put himself at the mercy of a centralized Gov't...especially when their is no need for him to do so -
And as Dog said above...there is no benefit whatsoever for Iran in housing UBL...other then an assured military strike from the U.S. (with the full backing of the American public....which we don't have without UBL being there).
I would not be shocked if they helped him in some ways. I would be surprised if they let him live within Iran's borders.
An accurate assessment - Gulbuddin Hekmatyar has strong ties to the Iranian Mullahs and they would provide indirect help for UBl through him - G. Hekmatyar is one of the top 3 HVTs we are after in the Stan/Pak border region (and he plays in Stan much more so then any of the rest).
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