Posted on 04/22/2006 11:26:16 AM PDT by minus_273
A little update for freepers tracking events in Nepal. It now appears that the state might collapse. Two things are currently happening. First, my contacts in Kathmandu valley report that the political parties and Maoist alliance are pushing for a republic and second, waves of (yes, uniformed) Maoist fighters have now entered the capital from the outlying hills and are now controlling parts of the valley outside the city's beltway. Fighting is confirmed in the following areas of the city Thapathali, Maitighar and Bhotaity.
From a strictly historical perspective, this looks very very bad. We've seen all of this before. It appears that the seven political party alliance which goes by SPA has been manipulated as predicted. In all likelihood, there will be much more combat in the city soon. If the Royal Army loses, the result will not be the democratic republic the SPA wanted but a communist one.
The King is close to China and the SPA/Maoist alliance operates out of India. .
My connections in the Indian military (yes, I have a few) say there are plans for an invasion. This would be in the event of a Maoist takeover. Indians have their own problems with Maoists and whatever their reasons for supporting the SPA/Maoist alliance, the outcome will be pretty bad for them. Nepal is close to some parts of India with Maoist violence (Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand. Maharashtra and Bihar). A Maoist victory in Nepal will not only embolden those India but create a training an staging area in Nepal.
The Indians have changed sides. Previous governments of the nationalist BJP supported crushing the Maoists however, the socialist Congress party which now runs the country moved the other way. It was probably a gamble intended to put pressure on a hostile king and seems to have gone horribly wrong.
I expect an invasion and unfortunately, that seems the best possible outcome.
Lousy commies can't get any support for their stupid ideology without killing people. Commie idiots don't realize their collectivist theories are crap, or maybe they do and just want power no matter how they get it.
an update.
Thanks for the post, you are right, several of us are following events in Nepal. I was hoping we would get involved below the surface, to help build a security force that could resist the Maoists, but we have (probably for good reason) let India take the lead there.
Nepal is India's problem, but it looks like an opportunity for some friendly help. Letting Nepal fall to their version of Shining Path would be a disaster.
The king is close to China, but the maoist rebels are coming from India?
South asian politics are a bit confusing.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1499543.cms
India ready to give neighbour a helping hand
NEW DELHI: Along with supporting Nepal ruler Gyanendra, the Indian government has handed out unreserved kudos to the people of Nepal. "The people of Nepal have undergone acute suffering and economic hardship during the last several months, but have always kept their faith with democracy and freedom.
They deserve our respect and admiration," an MEA spokesperson said. The Indian response evolved after the king met the Indian ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee in Kathmandu on Friday morning to give him the details of his proposed statement.
This formed part of a high level discussion between Prime Minister, national security adviser M K Narayanan, foreign secretary Shyam Saran and PM's special envoy Karan Singh.
It was decided that since the king had walked some distance, India would now support his actions. Opposition leader Jaswant Singh, who is due to travel to Nepal on Monday, also went on record to say that the agitations should now stop.
He was briefed by Saran on the discussions in Nepal over the past couple of days. There have been reports of rejection of the king's offer by the parties in Nepal, but government sources here felt saner counsel would prevail.
The interim government, when it is formed can, with its executive powers, reconvene Parliament or set up a constituent assembly and call for fresh elections.
The new government should also have the powers to negotiate with Maoists, though each of these powers will be hard fought victories, because it is likely that the king may insert many riders to dilute his offer.
The initial reactions also seem to suggest that the Maoists too may not reject the king's offer out of hand; instead wait for developments to evolve. The next step is for the parties to select a PM — India will certainly push them towards a quick decision.
Once an interim government has been announced, a timetable for elections will be next on the agenda. On Friday the MEA said, "The aspirations of the people of Nepal can now be addressed by enabling them to enjoy their rights through a democratic electoral exercise free from the threat of violence."
Once a government has taken over, India will formally announce a comprehensive economic package to pull Nepal out of its economic morass.
India, said the MEA spokesperson, "now stands ready to render all possible assistance to enable Nepal to achieve political stability and economic recovery at the earliest possible date."
India, having rolled up its sleeves and entered Nepal's political labyrinth, will now stay deeply engaged. The parties will be persuaded to take advantage of the king's offer and press home their high ground.
The Maoists will be persuaded to stay quiet through the period of transition and the international pressure will now build up on the Maoists to disarm and become a part of mainstream politics.
This transition too will have to be managed. The king will have to be persuaded to stay the course, with the assurance that the monarchy will remain only constitutional.
The royal Nepal army may technically be with the king, but Indian sources said, they now know that their equipment and technology lifelines would be retained only if they weighed in on the side of multi-party democracy.
there is one more even worse outcome. Chinese communists side with the king and it becomes ground zero for an indo-chinese proxy war. I dont know how the chinese will react to india removing the buffer state that separated the two
The Communist mantra. One day you will hear them say the same thing about the same maoists in India.
These are the kind of maoists who still believe China's "great leap forward" was a great success, something even the chi-coms won't say any more.
For all that India is the 'world's largest democracy' and that we have been cozying up to the Indians lately as a counterweight to the Pakistanis, I REALLY don't trust the Indians.
"The Maoists will be persuaded to stay quiet through the period of transition and the international pressure will now build up on the Maoists to disarm and become a part of mainstream politics. "
highly unlikely. think hamas.
considering i have literally waked into Tibet at least once while visiting the place, i beg to differ.
You can't compare the Commie version of evil and the Hamas version of evil.
For starters, M.A.D. worked with the Commies. It won't achieve the same results with the 'Slammies.
I have a feeling the Nepalese tourist industry just went to hell.
Except for prostitutes.
The nations along the Sino-Indian border are used by both countries either as pawns or neutral zones. The Nepal situation seems close to the Sikkim situation. Depending on whose version, Sikkim ruler faced social breakdown and internal civil war. Some believed the situation was instigated by India to force the ruler to accept Indian rule or face street justice from the rebels (allegedly supported by India). Others say it was a natural internal strife and India took advantage of it to enter and later annex Sikkim. Nepal Maoist were supported by Indian Communists while the Indian government stood idly by and did nothing??!!! How do we know if the Maoist movement was used by India to destabilize Nepal, so it will serve as a strategic pretext or strategic pressure to force the king to allow the entry of Indian forces so the rebels (who served their purposes) will be destroyed and Nepal is firmly under Indian control? I think this is Act One is a long fubuki dance between China, and India. I think India will occupy Nepal, destroy the rebels and refuse to leave. China will capitalize on the Nepalese resentment of Indian occupation and Act Two of the play will begin. In the meantime, if Nepal falls to Indian control, that leaves only Bhutan as the remaining independent nation along the Sino-Indian border. The only good news for the US is this situation will destroy the attempts of China and India to cooperate economically. They have been trying to open their borders for trade in the last six months. We want India as an ally, not a third party who can play the China card against us or the US card against China, thus reaping rewards from both sides.
Why not? Are you racist?
"For starters, M.A.D. worked with the Commies"
there are several types of communists. This is the pol pot variety. they are fanatical maniacs.
"Bhutan as the remaining independent nation along the Sino-Indian border."
Bhutan is under indian control They use indian currency and india in in charge of the military and foreign affairs. It is all but an indian state.
that sounds like a familiar sequence of events. Deja vu anyone? but seriously, better an indian state than the killing fields. Rock, meet hard place.
Hahaha! Check out Sagar's home page profile. And he's from Nepal.
As for architecture, there is a school of taught believing that martial arts and architecture went from Kerala (the southern state of India which had extensive ancient trading links with China), to China via SE Asia, and not the other way round.
Complex of an ancient temple in Kerala, India.
And what happened to my requesting you to give authentic backing to your ludicrous claim of Indian Sikh troops being cowed down in Nepal, in that imaginary Indian "intervension" dream of yours?
BTW, 'Nava Varsha' is the Nepali New Year.
The language: Sanskrit
Meaning: Nava = New, Varsha = Year.
India steps up border vigil as Nepal braces for more violence
http://www.newkerala.com/news2.php?action=fullnews&id=44708
Sonoli (UP): Security has been tightened up along the Indian side of the India-Nepal border in the wake of increased incidents of violence in Nepal.
The states sharing borders with Nepal have alerted the check posts to keep a strict vigil along the border. The Seema Suraksha Bal (SSB) or paramilitary border guards have been checking every vehicle at the Sonali border point in Uttar Pradesh.
Seema Suraksha Bal Commanding Officer Vijay Kumar said that they were keeping a close watch on the ongoing situations in Nepal.
"Keeping in mind the situation in Nepal, which have been receiving from headquarters, we have increased vigil at the border. Checking has been increased. Patrolling is on. We are keeping a strict eye on the situation," Vijay Kumar said.
Nepal is observing 14th day of a general strike called by the seven-party political alliance opposing King Gyanendra's rule in the Himalayan Kingdom. The Maoists are backing the strike, which started on April 6.
On Tuesday, hundreds of protesters gathered in various parts of the capital, Kathmandu, despite bad weather and attempted to start a procession. However, police foiled their attempt without hurting anyone.
Although the powerful army remains loyal to the king, protests are spreading from the street to the civil service. Nepalese Police arrested at least 25 government officials for demonstrating against King Gyanendra inside the Home Ministry yesterday.
Those detained included the private secretary to Home Minister Kamal Thapa.
The Home Ministry controls the kingdom's police who have been deployed in large numbers to counter growing anti-monarchy protests in recent days. It is the first time officials have joined the opposition protests against the king.
Outside the capital, police fired rubber bullets to break up protests in two towns, injuring about a dozen, witnesses said.
Nepal's political parties have called for mass rallies, and vowed to bring out hundreds of thousands of people on the street on Thursday.
The king earlier this week held talks with the United States, Chinese and Indian ambassadors and indicated that he could meet some of the protesters' demands. The United States and India have been repeatedly calling for the restoration of democracy in the country.
India fears that the Nepal's Maoist rebels may create trouble with the help of Indian Maoists active in the Indo-Nepal border areas.
King Gyanendra sacked the government and assumed full power in February last year, vowing to crush a decade-old Maoist revolt in the country.
He, however, has offered to hold elections by April next year, but the politicians and the activists have demanded immediate transfer of power to an all-party government.
The United States and India have been repeatedly calling for the restoration of democracy in the country.
India fears that the Nepal's Maoist rebels may create trouble with the help of Indian Maoists active in the Indo-Nepal border areas.
nava/naya varsa is literally new year. look up losar it is also the new year.
the kathmandu post site that had the picture is long gone for obvious reasons. ekantiur.com the replacement does not have an archive section.
you have to keep in mind in nepal that the King is a chettri (warrior caste) the army forces are literally family. look at the top officers in the military and you see they are all Thapa and Rana (the old rulers) and many are royal cousins . They will never give up without a fight.
Frankly Losar celebration is more politically motivated to cozy up to China and to spite at the Indians. Its hardly about cultural affinity.
Although Tibet is occupied by China culturally China is several hundreds of miles away from Nepal on the other side of Tibet.
"Nepal is traditionally in the chinese sphere of influence."
LOL. You are saying it out of your antipathy for Indians. I doubt you really believe that yourself. The fact that Nepal even exists is because of India.
Look back what I've already translated regarding the Nepali New Year, mor@n, and come back to me.
As for the bull$hit you tried peddling that day, you have run out of it, haven't you? I repeatedly asked to provide proof on that day, and again did so today.
You failed on *both* occasions. You cut-and-ran that day, and it won't be a surprise if you do so today too. Sorry for you that your nonsense doesn't get a good mileage around here.
what does sagar page say other than
"The Socialists are the most popular of all, and control the politics. "
which refers to the congress party i assume. That is consistent with what i wrote.
NEPAL, CIA World Factbook
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/np.html
Religions:
Hindu 80.6%, Buddhist 10.7%, Muslim 4.2%, Kirant 3.6%, other 0.9% (2001 census)
note: only official Hindu state in the world
Languages:
Nepali 47.8%, Maithali 12.1%, Bhojpuri 7.4%, Tharu (Dagaura/Rana) 5.8%, Tamang 5.1%, Newar 3.6%, Magar 3.3%, Awadhi 2.4%, other 10%, unspecified 2.5% (2001 census)
note: many in government and business also speak English
Its because of India, willy nilly always ready to protect Nepal, that you would as usual play your China card. No good deed goes unpunished.
Had there been no India and only a commmunist China knocking at your door, I doubt you would have been so enthusiastic about the Nepal's close relationship to China that you would so proudly flaunt the minor architectural semblance of Buddhist temples as proof of Chinese cultural affinity for Nepal. You would fear that the same proof can very well be used by China to claim that Nepal was always part of China just like Tibet.
losar is the tibetan new year which preceeds Buddhism by over a 1000 years and it is a major holiday. There is also the newari new year which is a much younger calendar and is celebrated in only Kathamndu and called Nepal Sambat. In nepal there are 4 major new years.
The Gergorian one, Bikram sambat (what carrot and stick called nava barsa which just means new year), The chinese one, and Nepal Sambat. All 4 are referred to as nava/naya barsa
The entire top 2/3 of the country is of at least some tibetan descent the indian descent ones are the lower 1/3 in the Terai flat lands and look distinctly different. In the terai region they speak maithali which is almost identical to Hindi. The terai was actually given or given back depending on how you look at it, to nepal by the British Raj so at one point it was part of india.
Tell a newar or a tibetan they are of indian descent and you will get quite a few laughs. There are a ton of castes in the country the majority of the country is very different from india and i have been to both places.
Indians are not a race. The Mongoloid race is not alien to India.
Losar is also celebrated in Ladak, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim and in Himachal Pradesh in India.
BTW there are 4 million Tibetans all over India not just in Darjeeling, Siliguri and Dharmashala but also in all the major metro cities. Plus we have Buddhist of Tibetan descent in Ladak, Sikkim, HP, Uttranchal, and Arunachal Pradesh (Remember Tawang monastry?).
for what is is worth nor are chinese a race. Han chinese is a very diverse group who look very different lumped into one category.
There is a perception of what chinese is and there is a perception of what an indian is and the two are not the same.
Look if you want to believe that the architectural styles resembles China more than India, its totally up to you, but the fact is we have much more temples (with exactly the same architectural style) on the Indian side as compared to Nepal.
You can find similar architectural features in temples all over India, and on awider area, in Thailand, Cambodia and much of the rest of SE Asia.
For what it's worth, China isn't exactly anywhere near as diverse as India or the United States, or even Europe, for that matter.
"For what it's worth, China isn't exactly anywhere near as diverse as India or the United States, or even Europe, for that matter."
agreed. i think our discussion of temple styles in india easily establishes that.
But the contact from India has been far greater than the contact from Tibet.
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