Posted on 04/12/2006 5:48:59 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
All that needs to happen is a small percentage of the GOP Conservative base to simply NOT vote for either Busby or Bilbray and Busby gets the special. I don't think it's an impossibility.
Bilbray might get some "RINO's" and independents who voted for Kerry, to offset the red meaters funk. Cheer up. But yes, the June election will be tight.
This race is over. I'm not aware of any precedent (in House races) for voters punishing someone of the same party as the disgraced former members. Resignations by vulnerable members save seats. Not the other way around, as some in the media might portray.
Bilbray is a fairly solid conservative on most issues, yet earns the endorsement of SD's lesbian D.A. People from outside this area of the world must think that odd, but our version of "conservatism" can be a little harder to pigeonhole. I contend that Bilbray is a better fit for this district than a 100% "red meater".
The race for the gop slot for the special is over. The race as to whether the Pubbies hold the seat is by no means over. It remain in the "lean GOP" column. Anything safer than that is wishful thinking in my opinion. There are too many variables hanging out there.
Clearly.
10,000 absentee ballots -- out of those, Roach would have to finish 10 percent ahead of Bilbray to win.
Roach's campaign got something of a late start -- do you suppose that the Mormon effect might kick in here?
No. Mormons don't do things at the last moment (they are organized), in general, and the idea out of 3000 of so ballots, Roach could beat Bilbray 2-1, when the rest of the absentees were evenly split, is ludicrous.
For ONE district in a special election?
I beg to differ.
ANYTHING is possible, but I'm in agreement with you.
That would be true if this were an even remotely competitive seat. It's not. As I noted previously, Bill Simon beat Gray Davis in that district by over 18%. And in the Recall Arnold and Tom McClintock together beat Bustamante by about 55% (75%- 20.3%).
This is a very, very strong GOP seat.
FYI: San Diego's lesbian DA is a Republican.
Exactly why I'm planning to skip the run-off to finished Duke's term in June. I don't like Bilbray (never have) and Roach is yet another candidate in SD politics trying to buy a seat at the table like Issa, Navarro and others before.
I'll give you one, since we were discussing it today... NY US Rep. James Hastings (R) in 1976 resigned ahead of a criminal conviction. 'Rat Stan Lundine took the special election and remained in that GOP seat for the next decade before becoming Mario Cuomo's Lieutenant-Governor.
Ah, and how could I forget the most audacious example recently ? SD-At Large. Bill Janklow, the treacherous manslaughtering RINO, resigned upon his criminal conviction and was replaced with a 'Rat, Steph Herseth.
Good memory, but the fact is, that a resigned chap who is disgraced, does not affect the partisan politics for the replacement much. However, this time, sleeze is a national issue, so maybe things are different. If there are, it will be marginal, but at the margins are where elections are won or lost, in seats where it can make a difference.
too bad she isn't also black and Jewish.
But that was case of a more popular challenger winning, not the incumbent party being punished.
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