This past Wednesday night I was watching an open microphone time with NOLA council members who were on a committee to rebuild the city. Nagin was present. Residents were irate at how recovery was proceeding (or not proceeding in some cases). These residents were of every age and color. One lady urged her fellow citizens to vote with their conscience and not because of skin color (she happened to be black). Nagin was taking a pounding and, if those 90 minutes were any indication, his re-election is not a given -- even amongst his (hopefully former) base.
Nagin's history and he knows it. Mitch Landrieu (God help them) will be New Orleans' next mayor (God help them), and I'm betting he makes it in without a runoff.