Why are we trying to reheat the Cold War?

HISTORIANS OF the future will look back with amazement at U.S. foreign policy at the turn of the millennium, especially with regard to Russia.

It's true, of course, that the Soviet Union once posed a severe threat to the United States and its allies — a global challenge that tied up American energies for 50 years and cost tens of thousands of American lives in anti-communist proxy wars. But that struggle ended in 1989 with a Western victory that was not only complete but miraculously peaceful. Since then, the U.S.-Russia relationship has been uneasy but usually cooperative. Not one American has been killed by Russia. And after 9/11, Russia immediately offered its sympathy and help.

So what possible explanation is there for the fact that today — at a moment when both the U.S. and Russia face the common enemy of Islamist terrorism — hard-liners within the Bush administration, and especially in the office of Vice President Dick Cheney, are arguing for a new tough line against Moscow along the lines of a scaled-down Cold War? According to media reports, they advocate forming anti-Moscow military alliances with Russia's neighbors and giving overt support to domestic political opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin.

Putin, Bush, and Condoleeza Russia and America’s Three-Year Window

How Insiders View President Putin
By Ronald G. Hamilton Major (Ret)
U.S. Army Military Intelligence

If you have any influence at all on US and Russian foreign policy or media analysis of the same please take note of the remaining time before new personalities and relationships move into the Commanders-in-Chief offices. Opportunities often present themselves when we aren’t ready or aren’t paying attention and opportunities in geopolitics to set new courses for cooperation and mutually beneficial relations rarely present themselves more than once in a generation.

We are at a critical decision point and what we decide to do today in developing US-Russia relations will follow our children and us into the next century. The current relations-vector since the Khodorkovsky trial and the change in Russian law that allows President Putin to nominate regional governors who are then voted on by regional assemblies (similar to how President Saakashvili of Georgia appoints governors) has been heading in a negative direction. The number of press articles about how the Russians are backsliding on democracy and anti-Putin analysis has increased that makes it important for an additional point of view to be presented.

I am not pro-Putin, pro-Russia, pro-Bush (although I do have great respect for them) - I am pro-America, and the US needs positive, mutually beneficial relations with Russia for numerous economic, energy security, and stability reasons that will become increasingly more important as we journey through the 21st Century and face down the asymmetric threats posed by radical Islam (Wahhabism) and the proliferation of WMDs.

Hopefully, this article will provide some insight into President Putin, the man, in a way that will alleviate some of the misgivings about his character that have accumulated in the previous two years due to the negative press he and Russia have received.

Setting aside the bias and the inherent mistrust that some important western analysts have for Russians and viewing President Putin from a purely humanistic approach provides some surprising insights into the kind of person he is and illuminates a very important point – the man is in character now and has been his entire life. What you see now is what he has always been. Character counts and president Putin has it and integrity.

He is someone that does what he says and says what he’ll do. He did not seek the office of President and very likely cannot wait to move on from it. He is a patriot and believes in at least two things greater than self – his country and the divine.

The following excerpts are from individuals in business, government, academia and professional services who have met and or worked with President Putin. These have been edited because I don’t have approval to quote names.

1. “I personally have spent no more than an hour in direct conversation with him, and it was long before he ever dreamed of being President. At that time he was the Deputy to Sobchak, mayor of Petersburg. I had a special project that I wanted to implement which would have taken Petersburg’s administration help to accomplish. It just happened that I ended up in Putin's small and quite plain office. He looked like any other bureaucrat to me, but what became interesting is that he took me seriously, listened intensely, asked astute questions in a very impersonal way, never tried to subsume my project, asked for nothing, and after an hour's discussion, summed up the situation correctly and honestly explained to me why the city administration couldn't be involved with this, even though it seemed he thought it was a good idea. He was totally different for a bureaucrat, since all of the others were always trying to subsume our work, get something from us, vow to help then start asking favors, etc. None of this with Putin.... and along with his unusual penetrating listening skills, he is probably the only bureaucrat that I walked away from and knew I'd been heard and told precisely the truth and for this reason I remembered him well several years later when a headline appeared in the paper saying that he might be heir apparent to replace Yeltsin. I was shocked. How could this quiet, honest, no frills, introvert ever be presidential?

2. “…I remember telling friends that anyone coming into the office behind Yeltsin would need to do two things to succeed: 1) Get the oligarchs dislodged from the Kremlin and 2) Rein in or displace the regional governors. Further that I was sure Putin wouldn't choose those kinds of battles... it just didn't seem to me that he would have the personal strength to go up against those kinds of odds.”

3. “… while in Petersburg with a friend made on my first trip, I inquired: X what do you think of your new president? She replied in a rather loud voice, "Volodya! I've know him since we were kids in school!" She went on to describe this boy she had grown up with. It fit precisely with what I had experienced in my one hour... but of course she had many more details that were fascinating. The bulk of it was, quiet, cool headed, loyal, very patriotic, good boy, very poor, a very disciplined kid who took martial arts seriously as a discipline, went into KGB to do good for his country. Never boisterous, always helpful, took up for underdogs. Then I said, How will he deal with the young crooks in the Kremlin. X, pondered a moment and finally said, "If he continues with the behaviors he's always exhibited, he will watch them silently, he will throw up some flares to let them know he is watching expecting changes, and if no change some of them will be in prison within a couple of years." Interestingly enough, the one of them who actually told Yeltsin who would replace him, was the one who tangled with Putin first (Berezovsky) and hastened to exile rather than face charges. Next was Gusinsky, and after MK overplayed his hand, the third one was apprehended and now sits in prison. And Putin quietly goes about his task. The other oligarchs have learned that they can't run the country again, that they have to play it fair in order to keep their illegally gained fortunes. As for reining in the governors that was an impossible task. I know I've worked in the regions for 18 years. Finally with no way out, Putin simply decided to nominate them. If they do a good job great, If they don't, he can re-nominate them at any time. Things a year later are beginning to change in the regions. A brilliant move as far as I'm concerned, since they were a reason I thought Putin would never succeed as president.”

4. “…A time came when Putin's wife was in a severe automobile accident. By this time X and Putin were good friends, apparently with a lot of sympatico between these two no-nonsense people. X says he rushed to Putin and said, Volodya, I have arranged to have Ludmilla flown out to X where she will be treated by the best of doctors. He said Putin looked at him and teared up.... and finally said I appreciate it so much, but I can't take advantage of your kind offer.”

5. “…Another person, one of the top Russia specialist in the West worked with Putin at close range over a several year period when they were carrying out pretty large projects. X, a republican, reported that he never saw anything but honesty and cooperation coming out of Putin. The last time I visited him, I asked, how to you assess Putin after his first term. He said, I'm still bullish on Putin."

6. “… Last year I did a multi-year evaluation on one of our early clients. We were talking about the changes since he started his business, which by the way is very successful today. He even has western partners. He has a business building …. …Just for my own info, after asking the routine business questions, I asked what he thought of Putin. X said, well you know I've know him for a long time. He was the one who helped me through all of the paper work to start my first business and then my second business. I have the greatest respect for him. He never took a ruble illegally from any of us. He helped us get registered, get the documents, and we never had to pay him anything but the regular government required service charge. Even the woman who washed the floors commented to me that Mr. Putin spoke to her every morning when nobody else ever did anything like that. Then X pointed to a framed yellowing and tattered piece of paper on his wall. His first license... signed by VV Putin.”

7. “…I know he never would have wanted this job, it was foisted on him, and he still doesn't want it. Western writers and some pundits are so afraid he will make a career of the office and never leave. Truth is he is weary to the bone and doesn't want that office. A sometime advisor to Putin, told me in XXXX that Putin … is NOT a politician. That without doubt he will leave the office... but being the patriot that he is, he will definitely groom the person he thinks best for the office and will stand by to help in anyway he can... not because he loves power, but because he loves Russia.”

8. “…There are at least half a dozen of our early contacts who I've interviewed who have their own stories of Putin. I've concluded that Putin has been one of the most remarkably consistent personalities on which I've spent time collecting information. He apparently hasn't changed his MO since childhood…”

These are just a few insider insights into the kind of person who is heading the Kremlin. The US needs to be working closely with him to shape our future foreign relations vector and put a halt to the growing rift between Russian and American interests. The opportunity for Putin-Bush direct diplomacy has three years remaining.

They need us and we need them. The best way to ensure that we have positive relations is to treat them with respect and sincerely work with them to help achieve economic security and acknowledge regional interests and regional concerns from their perspective. Additionally, Russian support is the key to solving many of the standing/stagnant Eurasia/Caucasus/Central Asia regional issues and problems such as the frozen conflicts in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Trans Dniester, and Nagorno-Karabakh.

The current zero sum “Great Game” competition and the Who’s-Got-the-Most-Democracy game is counter-productive. Withdrawing economic development support while increasing funding for democracy building projects that have become associated with orange and velvet revolutions sends the wrong message, and the message needs to be revised as soon as possible.

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