TX 22 Analysis: Controversy Clouds DeLay’s Forecast

Congressional Quarterly ^ | 6:36 PM; Mar. 09, 2006 | Bob Benenson

[SolidSupplySide]

How well — or how poorly — did Republican Rep. Tom DeLay perform in his primary election Tuesday in Texas’ 22nd District?

DeLay’s partisans and nemeses are debating that question in superheated terms this week following his seemingly easy victory Tuesday over three GOP opponents. DeLay himself crowed Tuesday night that the results — 62 percent for DeLay, 30 percent for his closest of three challengers — showed that his constituents “have placed their full faith in me.”

According to DeLay supporters, he defied pre-primary speculation that he needed minimal voter turnout to succeed, with only the most committed Republican (and DeLay) loyalists going to the polls. Turnout was up 18 percent, or a bit more than 5,000 votes, over the midterm election primary in 2002 in which he had one opponent.

But compared with that contest — which drew little attention — DeLay received 1,821 fewer votes, while the total opposition vote was 6,957 higher. It is hard, therefore, to interpret the increased turnout as a boon to DeLay.

And the fact remains that the former House majority leader, who long dominated elections in his mainly suburban Houston-area constituency, lost a combined 38 percent of the primary vote to three little-known challengers. That figure — nearly twice as large as the anti-DeLay vote in any of his previous re-election campaign primaries — contributed to the decision by CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the Texas 22 general election contest from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.

In other words, we now view his race against Democrat Nick Lampson as a genuine toss-up.

Here’s why: The issue from here out is not who voted in the primary and why, but who is going to vote in the Nov. 7 election and why. And the fulcrum for the November outcome will be the status of the unresolved legal and ethical controversies surrounding DeLay.

CQ’s downgrading of DeLay’s rating into the tossup category is not a prediction that he is going to lose. It simply means that we can’t say with any degree of confidence right now that he is going to win.

DeLay clearly does have a sizable political arsenal as he bids for a 13th House term. Though he took a modest 55 percent of the general election vote against an inexperienced Democrat in 2004, his district normally is a Republican stronghold: President Bush received 64 percent of the vote there that year.

While surrendering the No. 2 position in the House Republican leadership cost DeLay considerable clout, he segued back into a seat on the Appropriations Committee that allows him to continue to channel federal funds to his district.

So we can come up with a best-case scenario for DeLay under which he not only wins in November, but does so easily.

Under that scenario, DeLay is acquitted in his pending trial on state charges of campaign finance law violations relating to his efforts on behalf of Republican state legislative candidates in 2002. He also is exonerated, or at least not indicted, by federal prosecutors investigated his past close association with now-convicted Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

With the coast clear, 22nd District voters reward DeLay with a typically comfortable victory margin.

But we can also come up with a plausible worst-case outlook for DeLay that results in his defeat at the polls in November. Under this scenario, DeLay is convicted on the state charges, which as misdemeanors would not require him to resign from the House (but might put pressure on him to do so). Or he is acquitted on those charges, but indicted by the feds on corruption counts in the wide-ranging Abramoff case.

Under these hypothetical circumstances, some dissatisfied constituents who normally vote the GOP line might cast a “just this once” vote for Democrat Lampson. And if they can’t stand to do that, they may have an alternative in the likely independent candidacy of former one-term Republican Rep. Steve Stockman, whose presence on the ballot could split the GOP vote that in the past has gone solidly to DeLay.

Right now, with so much volatility affecting DeLay’s personal standing, we think the 22nd District race sits smack in the middle of these two extremes.

Under normal circumstances, a prominent Democrat such as Lampson would have steered miles away from a race in the 22nd District. He was able to win four House terms because his previous 9th District, located east of Houston in the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Galveston region, was far more favorable to a Democratic candidate. When a redistricting plan supported by DeLay shifted Lampson into the more heavily Republican 2nd District in 2004, he was trounced by Republican Ted Poe.

Republicans scoff at the idea of Lampson winning in the 22nd and are seeking to associate him with more liberal former colleagues such as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California.

But voters, under duress, can sometimes make choices that appeared impossible. This can be summed up in three words: Michael Patrick Flanagan.

In 1994, powerhouse Illinois Democratic Rep. Dan Rostenkowski, the longtime Ways and Means Committee chairman, was under investigation on corruption charges that later led to his conviction. Yet no prominent Republican challenged him, leaving the nomination to Flanagan, a political unknown.

Flanagan was between jobs as a lawyer — he decided to run while playing darts at a bar with friends — and his chances of winning were universally dismissed. But win he did, by a 10 percentage-point margin.

Granted, voters in his heavily Democratic district dismissed him, in a landslide, at the first opportunity two years later. But his one-time wonder still makes him something of a patron saint of political underdogs — and makes the far more experienced Lampson look like a top-tier contender by comparison.

[SolidSupplySide]

At this point, one of the big questions that will be answered soon is: What does Stockman do?

Stockman needs to get on the ballot via petition. That's not a tall order in Texas, only 500 signatures of people who didn't vote in a primary (80% of TX22 voters). When Stockman announced his intent to run as an independent, he spoke like an Integrity Republican:

Nervous that the ongoing web of scandal surrounding disgraced Washington “superlobbyist” Jack Abramoff will cost Republicans enough seats to lose control of the House and convinced that Rep. Tom DeLay (R.-Tex.) might well lose his Houston-area district to a Democrat, former one-term Rep. Steve Stockman has decided to run for the seat as an independent.

...

Voicing his friendship for his former colleague, Stockman nonetheless expressed his concern that “this Abramoff thing is hurting the party and we could lose Tom’s seat.”

. . .

As to how running as an independent helps DeLay, Stockman told me that he would be free to keep attacking Lampson for his own “ethical lapses” while in local office before he came to Congress. “And that’s something Tom can’t do under the present circumstances,” he added.

Integrity Republicans represent at least 30% of the GOP in TX22. Their ranks have swelled by a factor of 4 or 5. What will they do in the general?

[H. Paul Pressler IV]

DeLay can win this seat without spending a dime.

[Dog Gone]

It's become obvious that you're committed to seeing Tom DeLay defeated. I don't know whether you're a troll, a DUmmie sleeper, or what the deal is.

But your goal is clear.

[cweese]

DeLay will win again this Nov. I'd like to see him as majority leader again.

[SolidSupplySide]

It's become obvious that you're committed to seeing Tom DeLay defeated. I don't know whether you're a troll, a DUmmie sleeper, or what the deal is.

What is anti-DeLay in my comments?

[fieldmarshaldj]

They're using Michael Patrick Flanagan as an example ? Rosty was guilty as hell and on his way to prison, unlike DeLay. It's also worth pointing out that it was a one-term victory, and Flanagan was trounced in '96 by the now Governor of IL, Rod Blagojevich. Any possible "victory" Lampson would gain would be good for all of one term, and once fully vindicated, DeLay would likely beat him in a rematch.

[gumboyaya]

I repeat, no one I know in this district is going to vote for a union shyster from Beaumont, certainly not me. Stockman is a non factor furthermore in or out Delay wins.

[MikefromOhio]

PWN3D!!!!!!!







PWN3D!!!!!!!

[monkeywrench]

"Integrity Republicans", sounds like a phrase the left would make up. You're about splitting the party. You're a christine todd whitman type.

[deport]

What is anti-DeLay in my comments?

---

The fact that you admit openly that you've not voted for DeLay since 96 and don't intend to again makes it evident that you have an agenda now to see DeLay defeated. Up until the primary election it could be assumed you had a candidate you supported rather than a candidate you wanted to win so that you could see DeLay defeated.

Anyone that would even consider Sanchez over Perry isn't a Republican by party and gives rise to questions of what your motive[s] are and who you are doing them for. JMO.

[Dog Gone]

Don't play games. You've been pushing the "DeLay is damaged goods" them for weeks. Now that your boy lost in the primary, you're all over Stockman.

We're not nearly as stupid as you think we are.

[SolidSupplySide]

"Integrity Republicans", sounds like a phrase the left would make up. You're about splitting the party. You're a christine todd whitman type.

What phrase would you prefer me to use? 30% of the GOP voters were swayed by Campbell's integrity theme. Do you have a better name for this section of the electorate?

[SolidSupplySide]

The fact that you admit openly that you've not voted for DeLay since 96 and don't intend to again makes it evident that you have an agenda now to see DeLay defeated. Up until the primary election it could be assumed you had a candidate you supported rather than a candidate you wanted to win so that you could see DeLay defeated.

It is true I haven't voted for DeLay since 96. I did indeed support Campbell and his integrity based campaign in the primary. It is a big jump from there to suggest I want Lampson to defeat DeLay.

[monkeywrench]

RINO has always worked around here. It fits with the integrity of the site.

[nj26]

The voters have turned back the nay-sayers in the primary, and they will do it again in November.

[SolidSupplySide]

You've been pushing the "DeLay is damaged goods" them for weeks. Now that your boy lost in the primary, you're all over Stockman.

I do believe that DeLay is damaged goods. I was one of the first to recognize that Campbell's integrity based campaign would have a following. I accurately predicted that integrity would be an issue in TX22. Even though I supported Campbell, I know TX22 and predicted the outcome of the primary to within 2%. I'm sure the DeLay campaign was surprised at Campbell's performance.

Now because I am an Integrity Republican, you attack me. You know that I understand this district. But you don't want me to post on it because I'm saying things you'd rather not hear. Do you really think I'm wrong that Stockman could be a factor, or do you attack me because I didn't vote for DeLay?

[deport]

It is a big jump from there to suggest I want Lampson to defeat DeLay.

---

Really..... Then explain to me how it is that you think you are helping DeLay win by continuing the negative approach. You can't honestly think Stockman can win as a 3rd party type, do you? Lampson will ahead of him in a 4 candidate race.

[SolidSupplySide]

RINO has always worked around here.

RINO implies liberal policy preferences. Campbell was just as conservative as DeLay. I don't think RINO is a good name.

Furthermore, if you truly believe that Campbell supporters were RINOs, then you must think that they won't be able to support Stockman. After all, it could be argued that Stockman is actually more conservative than DeLay.

I don't buy it. I think Campbell voters are true conservatives that actually value integrity. RINO is not a good name for them, "Integrity Republicans" is. Stockman may be able to draw them into his corner.

[monkeywrench]

No, he wasn't. Delay said he'd push the 'Fair Tax'. Campbell is for "lower taxes". What does that mean after all these years? Lower to whom? I'm sure there are more differences.

[Kuksool]

Michael Patrick Flanagan won the IL-05 due to pathetic RAT turnout in Chicago. Plus, 1994 was a tidal wave of GOP victories in IL. The GOP took over the General Assembly, all the statewide offices, and Jim Edgar (the GOP Governor). It was the Golden Age for Republicans in the Land of Crook & Flakes.

I don't see a RAT tidal wave coming in Texas. The RAT candidates for Senate & Governor are not serious candidates at all.

[SolidSupplySide]

Then explain to me how it is that you think you are helping DeLay win by continuing the negative approach.

I don't think I'm being negative. I truly believe that people who voted for Campbell value integrity more than those who voted for DeLay. It seems you don't want me to make that observation about a significant set of voters than DeLay needs to bring back into his fold.

Why do you think Campbell got nearly a third of the GOP votes? Anti-DeLay people had three choices they could make, but Campbell was the clear favorite. Why? That is the question I pose, and I also evaluate the consequences of the existence of the Integrity Republicans. Who will they vote for in November? DeLay needs them, but noone here seems to want to consider them.

[SolidSupplySide]

No, he wasn't. Delay said he'd push the 'Fair Tax'.

Funny. I received half a dozen mailers from DeLay. None of them mentioned the 'Fair Tax'. He sure didn't campaign on it.

[Dog Gone]

Now because I am an Integrity Republican, you attack me. You know that I understand this district. But you don't want me to post on it because I'm saying things you'd rather not hear.

What the hell is an "Integrity Republican"? Is that a Republican who agrees that if a political piece of garbage DA in Austin goes after someone, he's guilty?

Or is that some sort of self-appointed crown you have placed on your head so that you can undermine Tom DeLay?

I don't believe you understand this district all. Your boy got crushed in the primary, and you're claiming it was a victory.

Now, you're going to push Stockman until November.

You can pretend that you're not anti-Tom DeLay, but you're only lying to yourself because the rest of us can see right through it.

Portraying yourself as a victim in the discussion is quite laughable.

[monkeywrench]

I saw him mention it a couple of days before the roof caved in on him, politically.

[gumboyaya]

Sure Campbell was a conservative ENVIRONMENTAL LAWYER, I guess so if you say so.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"They're using Michael Patrick Flanagan as an example ? Rosty was guilty as hell and on his way to prison, unlike DeLay."

---

Another difference is that George Bush had actually carried the IL-05 (as it looked in 1994) by 52%-48% in 1988 and the Bush + Perot vote in 1992 was close to 50%. The current TX-22, on the other hand, only gave Al Gore around 32% in 2000 and gave Kerry 36% in 2004, so a Democrat needs to get a much larger percentage of the GOP vote in the TX-22 in 2006 than a Republican needed to get of the Democrat vote in the IL-05 in 1994.

As I've said before, I think the Stockman candidacy will end up hurting Lampson more than it hurts DeLay. Basically, the 2006 election boils down to whether enough Republicans dislike DeLay or think he's a crook and thus vote against him. But with Stockman on the ballot, the anti-DeLay vote will be split among Lampson and Stockman, thereby helping DeLay win with a smaller percentage of the vote than would normally be required. If 25% of Republicans in the district vote against DeLay, it would reduce his vote percentage to 48%, but there's no way that Lampson can come close to that percentage if he isn't the sole beneficiary of anti-DeLay Republican votes; if Stockman gets 40% of the disaffected Republicans, he would get 10% of the total vote to 42% for Lampson and DeLay would win with 48%. Plus, you need to remember that Stockman used to represent the part of the district in South Harris and Galveston that Lampson used to represent, so presumably Stockman would run stronger in the area in which Lampson absolutely must sweep if he's to have a chance of beating DeLay, since around 82.5% of the district is new to Lampson and around 92% of the voters live outside of his home base of Galveston.

Bottom line, Lampson can't win unless over 40% of the Bush voters going to the polls in November refuse to vote for DeLay, and that is not going to happen.

[Clintonfatigued]

Tom DeLay is a solid favorite, although not assured of reelection.

[SolidSupplySide]

What the hell is an "Integrity Republican"?

I defined it above. Integrity Republicans are those who voted for Campbell because they value integrity in public officials. They are the Republican voters who have defected DeLay in the past. Their numbers have grown, and DeLay can't allow them to defect again.

The average Republican received 64% of the vote in TX22 in 2004. DeLay received 55% -- the lowest of any Republican at all. That shrinkage, I argue, is primarily due to integrity issues. The number of voters who value integrity grew by a factor of 4 or 5 according to the primary. What can DeLay do to bring them back?

[SolidSupplySide]

Sure Campbell was a conservative ENVIRONMENTAL LAWYER, I guess so if you say so.

Yep. He defended industry in environmental cases.

[deport]

An Intergity Republican, you say.....

---

I, like many Texans, face a difficult choice for Governor between a RINO and a DINO. Our current RINO governor, Rick Perry, refuses to take tax increases off the table like his DINO opponent, Tony Sanchez has. Fiscal policy is my #1 issue in voting.

Sanchez is a "Bush Pioneer". He is also a man of faith (Catholic). I just wish he would transpose his personal faith onto the issue of life and shake the last chains of his nominal party.

I'm sure that there are people here that would vote for a RINO before marking their ballot for a conservative Democrat. Others simply won't consider Sanchez because they don't like the fact that he can speak Spanish or has too much pigmentation in his skin. But for those of us who care about the issues, Sanchez is a true alternative to Perry.

1 posted on 04/03/2002 5:12:58 PM CST by SolidSupplySide

[SolidSupplySide]

I, like many Texans, face a difficult choice for Governor between a RINO and a DINO. Our current RINO governor, Rick Perry, refuses to take tax increases off the table like his DINO opponent, Tony Sanchez has. Fiscal policy is my #1 issue in voting.

Sanchez is a "Bush Pioneer". He is also a man of faith (Catholic). I just wish he would transpose his personal faith onto the issue of life and shake the last chains of his nominal party.

I'm sure that there are people here that would vote for a RINO before marking their ballot for a conservative Democrat. Others simply won't consider Sanchez because they don't like the fact that he can speak Spanish or has too much pigmentation in his skin. But for those of us who care about the issues, Sanchez is a true alternative to Perry.

[LibLieSlayer]

Hell, I'm sending Tom a grand tonight for his reelection campaign. He will smash pissants and rinos when he gets his hammer back.

LLS

[AuH2ORepublican]

"The average Republican received 64% of the vote in TX22 in 2004."

---

By "average Republican" I guess you mean President George W. Bush, a native Texan running for reelection against an ultraliberal elitist from Massachusetts. Had President Bush been running against someone with the issue positions and Texas residency of Morrison and also against a conservative third-party candidate (like DeLay was facing), I think it's pretty clear that he would have gotten no more than 58% of the vote. Yes, DeLay underperformed the President thanks to the media barrage against him and thanks to so-called conservatives who would do anything to defeat him, but it would take a heck of a lot more than that for DeLay to lose this November.

[monkeywrench]

I notice you use the word "integrity" the way a liberal would. Did you read Goebbels, too? Do you think it has magical properties if you use it in every sentence? Or that if you repeat a lie long enough, it becomes the truth.

I've seen you argue for illegals, against the fair tax, and now, against Delay. You're a DU'er or a party splitter- christine todd whitman type.

[Dog Gone]

When an "Integrity Republican" supports a Democrat for Governor who owns a bank that laundered drug money, you just gotta wonder...

Accusation against DeLay=guilt

Actual court ruling against Democrat=Integrity

[flattorney]

Thread courtesy of:



and



- - - - - - - -
“For over a thousand years Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of triumph, a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeteers, musicians and strange animals from conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments. The conquerors rode in a trimphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. Sometimes his children robed in white stood with him in the chariot or rode the trace horses. A slave stood behind the conqueror holding a golden crown and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting.” - General George S Patton Jr.

[tubebender]

This is a rehash of the POS you posted yesterday...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1592705/posts

[flattorney]

That's because SSS is a DU attention whore and a troll loser.

[Kuksool]

Another way to examine the generic partisan strength of the TX-22 would looking at the performances of Rick Perry & John Cornyn in 2002. I suspect Perry & Cornyn racked up close to 55% of the vote in Houston based district.

[deport]

I think SSS is using numbers from the TX Redisticting site showing statewides vs district races, etc. which he/she/it is off just a tad.

http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/pdf/c1374/_0450.pdf .. 2004

http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/redist/congress.htm .. more

[AmishDude]

"Integrity" means fighting against politically-motivated, baseless and outrageous prosecutions. If you don't support DeLay now, you are supporting Earle.

[DrewsDad]

Your campaign against Delay is getting old.

You've admitted that the Earle case is bogus and that it's too early to know about anything connected to Abramoff. Yet you dredge up some 12-year old charge to justify your attacks.

Sorry, I'm not buying it. Please take your attacks elsewhere.

[TexanByBirth]

Integrity is just another name for a politician who has yet to be elected to an office.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Pay no attention to SSS. He's been proven wrong and he'll be proven wrong in the general.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

30% of the GOP voters were swayed by Campbell's integrity theme

YEAH BUT DID CAMPBELL WIN?? THIS ISN'T HORSESHOES YOU TROLL!

[sugarbabe]

I resent your "integrity" remark. I have integrity and I support Tom DeLay because I know him and I know he has not done anything wrong. I think you need some humility!

[edsheppa]

Pay no attention to SSS.

That unfortunately won't stop him from posting. Or maybe it's not so bad in a keep-your-enemies-closer way. I mean we'll always know what lies the Ds are pushing.

But it sure is annoying.

[MikefromOhio]

30% of the GOP voters were swayed by Campbell's integrity theme

YEAH BUT DID CAMPBELL WIN?? THIS ISN'T HORSESHOES YOU TROLL!

Hell no Campbell didn't win. He didn't come close. He got


PWN3D!!!!