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Ancient Climate Studies Suggest Earth On Fast Track To Global Warming
Terra Daily ^ | February 17, 2006 | Staff Writers

Posted on 02/17/2006 8:54:21 AM PST by cogitator

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To: cogitator

Is this just another leftist professor trying another angle on their dogma that blames man for climate change? More nonsense from the pagans.


41 posted on 02/17/2006 9:39:39 AM PST by olezip
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To: cogitator
The main analogous factor is that the PETM is the only period in the Cenozoic where there was clearly a rapid rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases absent any other climate forcing agents. The resulting effect on global temperatures is pretty obvious.

Warming and CO2 increases are often coincident, but it doesn't mean one causes the other. The phrase "climate forcing agents" implies a degree of certainty that would come from a testable scientific theory rather than an artifact of computer models repeatedly shown to be wrong.

42 posted on 02/17/2006 9:48:25 AM PST by palmer (Money problems do not come from a lack of money, but from living an excessive, unrealistic lifestyle)
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To: cogitator

The failure of the Biosphere 2 experiment indicates that scientists still don't understand the mechanisms by which nature maintains a viable equilibrium. So where does that leave the poor layman in such an contentious debate as the global environment? Who does the layman believe? I know the environmental movement is politically motivated. The truth lies in the middle somewhere between the two extremes ("the sky is falling" vs. "no problemo") but closer to which end? I think we still need to keep an open mind toward science rather than base our decision solely upon political beliefs. Can the amount of CO2 released by burning oil and coal overwhelm the rate at which the oceans and plant life can aborb it? I don't know.


43 posted on 02/17/2006 9:51:03 AM PST by TexasRepublic (North American distributor for Mohammed Urinals. Franchises available.)
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To: cogitator

Bring on the global warming, it was -22 degrees when I drove to work this morning!!!


44 posted on 02/17/2006 9:52:35 AM PST by Nakota
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To: cogitator
"...Zachos estimated that it took 100,000 years after the PETM for carbon dioxide levels in the air and water to return to normal."

Define "normal". At past times, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere has been EIGHT TIMES higher than today's, yet the global temperature wasn't hugely higher than now.

45 posted on 02/17/2006 9:53:45 AM PST by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel)
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To: olezip
Is this just another leftist professor trying another angle on their dogma that blames man for climate change?

It's real hard to tell if a geochemist is politically liberal based on their scientific resume. Check out post 16.

46 posted on 02/17/2006 9:54:38 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator

Real Climate are overt Gaia worshippers. At the end of the day, that is what this is all about.


47 posted on 02/17/2006 9:56:01 AM PST by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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To: cogitator

What is your handle at Real Climate?


48 posted on 02/17/2006 9:56:48 AM PST by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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To: aligncare

As I said in a previous reply, the institution's political alignment may or may not influence an individual professor's politics. This professor has been studying the PETM for awhile now, and I expect that his understanding of it, and his ability to compare then and now in a climate sense, is not overly influenced by politics. The media interpretation of what he says, and even the press releases produced by the institution, may certainly give it a lefthand spin.


49 posted on 02/17/2006 9:57:29 AM PST by cogitator
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To: SalukiLawyer
"Everyone says global warming is a fact, especially scientists. People who are skeptical about it are derided as ignorant. So I'm sticking with the scientists on this one. Global warming is a fact, people. We need to do everything the scientists tell us to do in order to save our planet."

Which scientists?? There are lots of scientists who are skeptical about global warming as "human caused"--they just don't get much press.

The earth is definitely warmer--but so is Mars. There ain't no "fossil fuel burning" there.

No--the difficulty is telling HOW MUCH of today's warming is human-induced, and how much is "nature-induced".

50 posted on 02/17/2006 9:57:53 AM PST by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel)
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To: Omedalus

Carbon dioxide is continuously removed from the atmosphere by plants,


Repeat Loud and often that most plants are CO2 starved!!!!


51 posted on 02/17/2006 10:00:43 AM PST by PeterPrinciple (Seeking the truth here folks.)
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To: palmer
Warming and CO2 increases are often coincident, but it doesn't mean one causes the other.

See what you think about the PETM after reading this:

Ocean Burps and Climate Change

The article posted says this:

"During the PETM, unknown factors released vast quantities of methane that had been lying frozen in sediment deposits on the ocean floor. After release, most of the methane reacted with dissolved oxygen to form carbon dioxide, which made the seawater more acidic. Acidic seawater corrodes the carbonate shells of microplankton, dissolving them before they can reach the ocean floor and reducing the carbonate content of marine sediment."

I also discovered, for the first time, that the triggering episode is thought to be plate-tectonic changes causing landslides on continental slopes.

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005), page 69

This page also indicates that there is a competing comet impact explanation for the PETM -- but I don't think Zachos ascribes to it.

52 posted on 02/17/2006 10:08:24 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator

More rotifers! We need more rotifers!


53 posted on 02/17/2006 10:08:56 AM PST by TexanToTheCore (Rock the pews, Baby)
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To: TexasRepublic
Can the amount of CO2 released by burning oil and coal overwhelm the rate at which the oceans and plant life can aborb it?

The rate at which atmospheric CO2 is increasing indicates that the current rate of absorption by oceans and plant life is being exceeded by the rate of addition to the atmosphere.

54 posted on 02/17/2006 10:09:51 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
The fly in the buttermilk is, all available historical data (for example, from the Voshtok Ice Core) show that change in temperature preceeds change in carbon dioxide concentration, and therefore cannot be caused by change in carbon dioxide concentration. All (every single one) peer-reviewed papers that I've seen on the subject state that the change in carbon dioxide concentration lags temperature change, by 100 to 300 years.

PS. It's thirty-five degrees colder than normal here in the People's Republic.

55 posted on 02/17/2006 10:15:47 AM PST by sima_yi
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To: SalukiLawyer
"An increase by only a factor of 4 in the global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg. K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age."
- S.I Rasool and S.H. Schneider Science, v173, p138, 9/7/1971.

"This [cooling] trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century."
- Peter Gwynne, Newsweek 1976

"This cooling has already killed hundereds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000."
- Lowell Ponte "The Cooling", 1976

56 posted on 02/17/2006 10:17:38 AM PST by jpl ("We don't negotiate with terrorists, we put them out of business." - Scott McClellan)
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To: Vinnie

Great quote there - "Go harmonize with nature" (as they leave the kook eco terrorists stranded in the middle of the Amazon jungle without any survival gear). Man I loved that.


57 posted on 02/17/2006 10:18:14 AM PST by farlander
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To: Wonder Warthog
Define "normal".

Normal for the Eocene. It's not easy to find, but I think a range of 300-450 ppm is generally accepted, and during the PETM it could have gone as high as 2,000 ppm.

58 posted on 02/17/2006 10:25:11 AM PST by cogitator
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To: GOP_1900AD
What is your handle at Real Climate?

Gaia worshiper.

59 posted on 02/17/2006 10:26:11 AM PST by cogitator
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To: sima_yi
The fly in the buttermilk is, all available historical data (for example, from the Voshtok Ice Core) show that change in temperature preceeds change in carbon dioxide concentration, and therefore cannot be caused by change in carbon dioxide concentration. All (every single one) peer-reviewed papers that I've seen on the subject state that the change in carbon dioxide concentration lags temperature change, by 100 to 300 years.

Generally true for glacial-interglacial transitions, which is driven by Milankovitch forcing, primarily. We're currently adding CO2 to the atmosphere at a rapid rate during a very stable interglacial. That's why the PETM situation is an interesting case for comparison.

60 posted on 02/17/2006 10:28:24 AM PST by cogitator
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