The Significance of Bin Laden's New Audio Statement

Terrorism Focus ^ | January 31, 2006 | Michael Scheuer

[robowombat]

For the United States, the most prudent conclusion to draw from bin Laden's new statement is that al-Qaeda has fully completed preparations for more attacks in the United States. Bin Laden chose to speak at this time because he wanted to clearly tell Americans that al-Qaeda can attack in the U.S. whether or not it is engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq. That he intended the warning to be clear for Americans to understand is shown by the fact that the statement contained even fewer quotations from the Quran and the Hadith than did the statement of October 31, 2004, which, until then, was the sparest of all bin Laden's speeches in terms of such quotations. Adding to the alarming nature of this warning was bin Laden's pointed reminder that the "mujahideen, all praise be to Allah, have managed repeatedly to penetrate all security measures adopted by the unjust allied countries. The proof of this is the explosions you have seen in the capitals [Madrid and London] of the European nations who are in this aggressive coalition [in Iraq]."

[50sDad]

Bring it on. I'd hate the loss of life and property, but it might galvanize everyone to hate Bin Ladin and his crowd the way we did on 9/12.

[Rushmore Rocks]

FYI

[Dog]

I still wonder what brought Zawahiri and his four planners together that evening in Damadola....it wasn't because of the local cuisine.

Something BIG was on the agenda.

[nmh]

He wants a "truce" for some down time. His organization has been scrambled and dissipated. He needs time to build up and get things organized and going again. OBL is no man of honor. He's a whore to Satan and so are those that follow him.

[quack]

Ya know,I was thinking yesterday,I miss those days.Not the terrorist attack itself and certainly not the loss the life,but it was weird.Everyone was nice to each other.At the stores,in traffic,on the street,everyone realized that our petty differences meant nothing.Even in other countries where they were saying "We're all Americans today".Unfortunately,it was short lived and we're back to worrying about Social Security issues,illegal immigrants,wiretapping,etc.,,IMHO,those were good days that were unfortunately brought about by disaster.

[Cap Huff]

Planning for the Spring offensive would be my simply guess.

By the way, this guy's analysis may be tinged with some agenda. He's the former CIA guy who has been very critical of the administration's WOT. Left the CIA in 2004, if you know what I mean . . .

Not saying he's wrong on everything, but I read his stuff knowing that he has some axes to grind.

[Dog]

I saw who wrote it...he does seem to have an agenda.

[Cap Huff]

This kind of jumped out at me:

"Bin Laden's message also was meant to resonate positively across the Islamic world, and it is likely to do so."

In a sense this is like saying that GWB's SOTU address was meant to resonate positively with Republicans throughout the country, and it is likely to do so . . . But on the other hand, I remember seeing quotes from some Muslims that were critical, one of them saying something like why should we listen to 7th century ideas coming from someone living in a cave.

No doubt many Muslims became ecstatic when they heard this tape, but how many reacted the opposite.

[ClaireSolt]

Damdola scared the s--t out of them.

[Cap Huff]

But not all of it. Zawahiri was spewing more of it the other day.

[GOPJ]

Osama is overplaying his hand. Within a few years the West won't need ME oil - and either will the rest of the world. When that time comes, the ME will have nothing. No products, no artificial means to prop up their 17th Century ways, and no friends in the world.

Just as the UAE is looking to a time when oil has stopped flowing, so should the rest of the Arab world. Take away the oil and the whole ME (every Arab State in that region put together) has the GDP of Denmark. In other words, nothing. On the world stage the ME would go from swagger to homelessness ... and it would happen with the same great speed that money flowed into the region 40 years ago...

Osama might mean what he says, but the West is powerful. Vietnam was a cultural loss, not a military loss. He knows and doesn't know that... In some ways Osama "gets" this culture - in other ways he misses the obvious. But this I know, if Osama is looking for a fight, he'll get the fight of his life. We will hunt down and kill every one of them - if it takes the next 50 years. And both sides will be hurt. And Osama will drag that region of the world down with him. For millions of tomorrows. And the West, being stronger, will come back. The ME will die. There must be a better way.

This is so sad.

[robowombat]

I can only hope that the US and the western coalition would be a stalwart as you believe in prosecuting the war without a name against the OBL group.

[GOPJ]

I can only hope that the US and the western coalition would be a stalwart as you believe in prosecuting the war without a name against the OBL group.

At some point, it will come down to a "war of ideas" and on that score, we've got the win. How do I know? Because no one is desperately trying to become a citizen of any ME country. No one's fighting to become a citizen - even if they're paid well. In our country people come here knowing the first few years they could be poor ... but they know there's hope. Hope for a better life and freedom. Freedom to live and freedom not to have to fear. The ME is a "chip on the sholder/control freak / exaggerated honor" type of culture. It's not a happy place unless you're the chief thug. Secret police and midnight knocks on the door are part of the ugly reality of that type of culture.

It's a hard sell. Even those who love that region of the world, don't want to go back there. You must know that... And there are lots of citizens of the ME who would jump at the chance to move to the US. And millions who already have. So, at some point, the ME way will be rejected. And the goons who run the place will be rejected, and the good people will choose to live free and without fear. You laugh, but if you're not a goon in the ME, you want out. It's only a question of time.

[nicollo]

Take away the oil and the whole ME (every Arab State in that region put together) has the GDP of Denmark.

Uhm, try Botswana, or someplace else, not Denmark:

GDP Saudi Arabia: $281.2 billion (2005 est.)
GDP Denmark $254.1 billion (2005 est.)

Per capita, Denmark is double Saudi Arabia. Oh, and S.A. is running 10% unemployment (males -- add womins and it's, what, 60%?)

[GOPJ]

Good point - and without the oil?

[SevenMinusOne]

For the United States, the most prudent conclusion to draw from bin Laden's new statement is that al-Qaeda has fully completed preparations for more attacks in the United States. Bin Laden chose to speak at this time because he wanted to clearly tell Americans that al-Qaeda can attack in the U.S. whether or not it is engaged in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Ahh, BS - This dirtbag and his fellow leadership ilk (within Stan/Pak) are doing all they can to merely ekk out their last days of survival in the Pak border regions -

They've been reduced to controlling nothing and living off merely the sympathy of other hate filled mountain scum. Or worse yet having to buy their safety from mountain trash to house them.

The reality is al Qeade has been decimated and UBL never in his wildest dreams imagined what has happened in the last 4 years.

That does not mean the GWOT is over (or even close) there is still much fighting to be done (and it will be done). But UBL himself has been reduced to the coward he is... living among Pakistani mountain trash.

Time was on his side in the short run (to hide) but his days are coming to an end. He won't survive 06 -

[robowombat]

I wish I could agree. AQ is now a set of decentralized foci spread around the world. The central command structure has been dispersed but the network remains functioning below the radar in the Moslem universe. How they communicate and move money and other resources is still largely a mystery. Bits and pieces have been discovered from Singapore to Spain but the informality of the way Moslems do many things (to our way of thinking)makes even understanding the logic of their operations difficult.

For the US I am convinced they are dedicated to conducting a really massive strike using some sort of unconventional mix of tactics and techniques as was done with both World Trade Center operations. They know once they surface again here their US network will be rolled up fairly quickly since they are the aliens and outsiders here and they have to ,leave some fingerprints we can pick up on.

These people probably have the staying power of the Order of the Assassins.

[justshutupandtakeit]

I believe he will stage a series of Breslan like attacks on the most innocent and vulnerable. This could easily be done.

[justshutupandtakeit]

The Assassins did not survive the Mongels who also stacked a pyramid of 25,000 skulls outside of Baghdad.