Posted on 11/16/2005 6:31:39 PM PST by Flavius
Britain is putting the final touches to an exit strategy from Iraq that will be launched with next month's election of a permanent new government in Baghdad.
According to several senior sources, the policy under discussion with Washington envisages the replacement of the current Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari with a more effective successor.
British soldier in Iraq Aiming for home: British troops may start withdrawing next year
It would also involve an agreement with the new Iraqi administration on a phased hand-over to Iraqi forces; a reduction in forces that could begin in the middle of next year; and greater involvement by neighbouring Arab countries.
A central element will be to reverse the rhetoric. Instead of insisting that foreign forces will not "cut and run" under fire from insurgents, the sources said Tony Blair would increasingly emphasise the coalition's determination to withdraw unless prevented by the violence.
The first signs of the change emerged this week with Iraqi and British leaders signalling that the withdrawal could start before the end of next year.
Asked about comments by Iraq's president, Jalal Talabani, who said Iraqis did not want foreign forces to stay "forever", Mr Blair said on Monday: "I think it's entirely reasonable to talk about the possibility of withdrawal of troops next year, but it's got to be always conditioned by the fact that we withdraw when the job is done."
Iraq factfile
Senior US military commanders have long argued that the way to defeat the insurgency is to reduce substantially the number of foreign troops in order to "reduce the perception of occupation" and draw Sunnis into the political process.
This would help split Iraqi Sunni "nationalists" away from the hard core of Islamist extremists such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian terrorist mastermind.
President George W Bush - echoed until recently by Mr Blair - has consistently slapped down any suggestion of a deadline for withdrawal, insisting that western security depended on defeating insurgents in Iraq and that a premature departure would only give victory to the insurgents.
But the British Government appears convinced that Mr Bush is also keen to start withdrawing troops next year.
"We have to convince Sunnis that the withdrawal will happen next year unless the violence prevents it," said one source, "but we have to choose our timing. We have to do it in a way that benefits the good guys."
He said the best time for such a change would be the Dec 16 general elections, when Iraqis will elect a government that will rule for four years.
Coalition officials are furious that vital momentum created by last January's election was squandered in the politicking over the creation of the transitional government under Mr Jaafari, leader of the Shia religious Daawa party. American and British hopes now appear to be pinned on the Iraqi vice-president, Adel Abdel-Mahdi, an ex-Maoist turned Shia Islamist, becoming the next prime minister.
He held talks with Mr Blair on Monday, officials describing him as "very impressive".
According to senior sources, one of the most important tasks for the new Iraqi government will be to agree with London and Washington the precise "conditions" for the hand-over of security.
This is likely to develop as a "patchwork", with Iraqi forces taking control of the least violent areas and gradually extending into areas where insurgents are most virulent.
A key objective is to involve neighbouring countries in the political process, giving greater legitimacy to the new Iraqi government in the eyes of Sunnis.
I wonder if the Brits think the Iraqis should have anything to say about this?
The Brits will not leave.
This is pablum to satisfy the Liberal Wing Nuts in Parliament.
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