Posted on 11/07/2005 1:53:47 PM PST by SirLinksalot
My Virginia predictions
By: Chad Dotson
Section: Election 2005
Since I know you are all anxious for my predictions on this year's statewide races in Virginia, now is the time to go on the record, I suppose. Before I begin, however, let me mention that you have until midnight to enter the Election Day Prediction Contest. Prize to the winner!
Now, to my predictions:
Let's begin with the race for Governor, since that seems to be the only race that anyone is mildly interested in, and I stress the word "mildly." I don't expect that we'll see very high turnout tomorrow; I suppose that's a shame. I'd like to see high turnout in every race, but only if people want to educate themselves. I see these articles in the Washington Post where Joe or Jane Sixpack is quoted saying they really haven't followed the race and don't know much about the candidates and don't know who they'll vote for....I get sick to my stomach every time I see a quote like that. There is no excuse for not educating yourself about your potential leaders.
But I digress.
Read on for the predictions....
The conventional wisdom is that the Governor's race is a dead-heat, and there is polling evidence to back that up. Most recent polls have been within the margin of error, and everyone expects that this race will be very close, even historically so. Virginia political reporters are gearing up for a long election night.
I'm here to tell you that you will know the name of the next Governor before you go to bed (unless you are my one-year-old son, in which case you will barely be awake when the polls close). And that name will be Jerry W. Kilgore.
Republican Jerry Kilgore will defeat Democrat Tim Kaine by no fewer than three percentage points. You heard it here first, and I am very confident about this. Why?
Well, let's begin with the fact that "senior Democrats," according to the WaPo, say that Kaine needs to lead by 5 points in the polls in order to win this race. Then, let's look at these comments, by Democratic political consultant Steve Jarding, who managed Mark Warner's successful campaign four years ago:
"But what would make me very nervous is the absolute, almost empirical evidence that at the end of the election in Virginia, Republicans tend to come home." Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher made similar comments this weekend in the WaPo, as well.
In a race that is purported to be as close as this one, Get Out The Vote efforts will be what decides the winner. Democrats know this. Republicans know this. Russ Potts knows this. And that's why I believe that Jerry Kilgore will win by a small, but significant, margin.
This is certainly anecdotal evidence, so ascribe to it whatever weight you desire, but I have mentioned multiple times at Commonwealth Conservative that the Republican GOTV effort this year is the most organized statewide voter contact program that I have ever seen. Ever. Kilgore has duplicated the highly-successful 72 Hour Program that was utilized very effectively by President Bush in the 2004 elections, and it has been a sight to behold.
So the GOP always performs better at getting out their vote, and they have ramped up the effort this year. What are the Dems doing? As far as I can tell, it's the same old, same old. Unions sending out their members to work, etc., etc., etc. I'm sure they are working very hard, but it looks like the same Democratic GOTV, and I don't know why I should think that it would work this time around.
Republicans always perform better in Virginia than the polls would indicate, and I see no reason to believe that won't be the case this year, as well. There are many, many reasons to be optimistic about Jerry Kilgore's chances of victory in tomorrow's election.
What about the down-ticket races? Let's begin with the Lieutenant Governor campaign, where Republican Bill Bolling is facing Democrat Leslie Byrne. I won't spend much time analyzing this race, other than to say that Byrne has run a surprisingly strong campaign...and she has almost no chance of winning. Bolling will win by at least five percentage points.
Now, there is one caveat to this, and it likely applies to the Attorney General's race, too. If Tim Kaine wins going away -- five points or more -- he could carry Byrne with him. It's not likely, but I suppose it's possible.
Which brings me to the race for Attorney General between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds. Early on, I thought Deeds would be the strongest Democrat running statewide. As it has turned out, however, Deeds has not been exceptionally competitive. Meanwhile, McDonnell has run very well, and his popularity in Hampton Roads is so overwhelming that Deeds will have difficulty making up that margin elsewhere. McDonnell is a unique candidate, in that his regional appeal is different than the other Republicans, and he has given Deeds fits.
My prediction: McDonnell will win by 7 points (with the same caveat as above).
So there you have it. I'm predicting a Republican sweep (I can see your jaws dropping). However, if the Democrats have improved their GOTV program, this really could be a barn-burner of an election night. I'm just seeing no evidence that the Dems will be able to match the GOP in getting out the vote. I hope I'm right.
for later read
I live in Maryland, so really do not have a horse in this race. However, I have seen tons of Kilgore ads on the tube - FNC since I watch nothing else - and hardly anything on Kain. I did read last week on this forum that Kain is advertising heavy on Hispanic stations. I would like to see a repub pull it out.
Is that third party "moderate" Republican still running? If so, then I think Kaine will win.
That, if nothing else, would convince me not to vote for Kaine. I'm sick of the illegals infesting Herndon.
Here's hopin and prayin!
Byrne is a known liability and will drag Kaine down.
Actually, I think Deeds will win, because of his superior record on gun rights (a big issue in Virginia).
I'm hoping that Kaine will be brought down because of his endorsement by Michael Schiavo.
Well, take a look at the polls posted on Hedgehog. Looks liek Kaine has more than a 5 point lead. Kilgore seems to have tanked in the last couple of weeks. I used to live in Virginia. What is happening? Is the state on its way to becoming another Maryland? Don't Republican presidents hire Republicans to staff the government?
Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen were #1 and #2 in 2002 & 2004.
Survey USA claims to be the best.
They lie. They're liberals.
Kilgore-50.8%% Kaine-48.4% Potts-0.8%
Pinging you for more predictions....
Corin - I think this writer is you! LOL
I don't live in Virginia so I will give my two cents worth.
Good signs..Kilgore is campaigning in Northern Virginia. Bad signs...Kilgore had to bring in President Bush.
Good sign.. the third party guys vote will drop and almost certainly go to Kilgore giving him and extra 1.5 to 2%
Bad sign..Kaine didn't ask Clinton to campaign for him the sure sign of a dead campaign.
With that my election day picks.
Kilgore 49.3% Kaine 48.7% Third guy 2%
New Jersey: Corzine did bring in Clinton.
Forrester 51% Corzine 49% Corruption finally does in the Dems.
California: Arnold is back. Referendum sweep!
Been right before.
No way Deeds will win. McDonnell has Tidewater firmly wrapped up and Deeds is now campaigning as a pro abort. That will not help in Virginia and I don't care who's heading the ticket, residing in the White House or sitting in the Governor's Mansion right now. Virginia is not going to elect an openly pro abortion Attorney General.
The population influx in Northern Virginia is diluting the natural conservatism of the Commonwealth. (The growth of the Tidewater area hasn't helped much either.)
I would suggest implementing an annual levy of $25,000 on each non-native living within 100 miles of Fairfax, with an additional $5,000 tacked on for registered Democrats.
I think Kilgore screwed up too but not badly enough to lose. I think we'll sweep all three seats. The only coattail we'll see will be in reverse. I think McDonnel and Bolling will help Kilgore. Craigh Deeds is running a pro abortion ad...nicely reminding people that the 'Rats are the abortion party. Kilgore let Kaine get away with hiding behind the Catholic Church regarding the death penalty without mentioning that Kaine opposes even a ban on Partial Birth Abortion.
Kilgore is going to win by a hair and the RATS will demand a REDUX of the Florida re-re-recount Fiasco! So, on election eve I send my Congratulations to Mr. Kilgore and the pubs in the State of VA on their nail biting VICTORY!! :0)
Growth in Tidewater has been most explosive in Virginia Beach and my city is the most completely Republican city in the state.
Kaine has such weird eyes in the ad that I saw, like two tiny flashlights. Whatever, his stand on illegal aliens is scary - he wants reduced college tuition for them.
That would be me, D&*#head!!!!
You wanna collect, you'll have to do it personally.
You don't wanna do that.
You're reasoned and erudite response has left me speechless. I must repair to the lounge now, to fan myself.
There...That's better.
GO HOME YOU F'EN CARPETBAGGER!
Good Lord, I hope not!
AlGore's legacy - an election win is not a win until the courts say it is a win.
The beach area is holding its own--My worries center on Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton, Chesapeake and Suffolk.
After 9/11 I thought we would see a trend away from these 'cliffhangers' each November, but it seems many of the swing voters still give serious consideration to voting for the Mommy party. Kaine seems a pleasant enough fellow personally but he is a big city liberal commited to the same old same old. Will vote early and go about my business.
Thankfully I am closer to 200 miles from Fairfax............
Good one!!!!
As to predictions, I have the nail clippers out right now, so there will be no biteable nails available tomorrow night.
It's going to be a rough night.........but I think Kilgore will prevail.
So much for southern hospitality.
That ad wasn't intended for illegals. Illegals, for the most part, don't vote.
?
Look at your post number 23........that was my reference.
I happen to not be a native, and even worse for someone with that type attitude, from north of the Mason Dixon.
snicker ....
Snort ...
BWAHAHAHAHAhahahahahaha!!!
It lets us know who the idiots are.
Russell Potts a "moderate"??? hehehehehe
You are kidding, aren't you???
Actually, you are wrong.
All 3 conservative Republicans will win, but, the BIGGEST win of the night will be McDonnell over Deeds.
When Deeds started running his anti Christian, anti McDonnell ads, he sank to a new low. It also showed his desperation. McDonnell will beat Deeds by 8 - 10 points!!
Excellent point.
My predictions are: We sweep the big three and pick up two seats in the House of Delegates! I'm much more encouraged after tonight's phone banking. I agree with the author's point about the GOP vote coming home. After phone banking the last 7 days, I've noticed a trend back to where it should be.
Many thanks to the BYU students who are here helping GOTV all over the state. I understand the ground war is something else. If the final poll released at midnight tonight shows Kaine ahead within the margin of error, I'm convinced we'll pull it out.
There's still more work to do and the GOP machine is in high gear!
I think you're right. I'm feeling much better today than I was over the weekend. If we're statistically tied in any poll, we win all three.
Bolling and McDonnell win BIG. Kilgore not as big, but solid.
I can live with that.
Which House of Delegate seats do you think we'll pick up?
I think Jim Hyland, a long-time GOP activist will beat freshman Delegate Steve Shannon. Shannon won an open seat squeaker 2 years ago. Hyland has run a nice, clean campaign and has lots of unified GOP support even after a 3-way primary. Hyland benefits from concerted GOTV efforts for the statewide slate. I don't know the other one, but the odds say there must be one someplace in the commonwealth! I thought Chris Craddock might have been a pickup but that speeding record might do him in. Do you have any picks?
I haven't really kept up with any other than my local race.
I'm feeling better after reading what you all are posting.
Thank you Ligeia for reminding me where some of the help was coming from. Thank you BYU!!!!
Yes, thanks BYU!
My sentiments exactly.
I guess we all should really think about the morning and therefore thinking about getting offline and getting some sleep, shouldn't we :)
Ok, enough sleeping. Polls are now open. Let's go!
How do you all think Kilgore screwed up? I'm not arguing with you, I'm just not sure what you're talking about. Thanks.
I'm working my precinct this afternoon handing out sample ballots. I've never done this before but I think it will be a great experience.
I saw quite a crowd of college-aged kids at the corner of Broad and Pouncey Tract near the mall (at 7am after I skated this morning). They had Kilgore posters and they were yelling (nicely, of course)! That was great to see.
I'm very nervous today - but your comments were heartening.
I feel like I did last year and GW won. So, maybe this is a good sign. ;)
Quote: "Russell Potts a "moderate"??? hehehehehe
You are kidding, aren't you???"
Forgive me, I should have said, "If that third party candidate (described by the MSM as a "moderate Republican") is running, he will steal enough votes to cost Kilgore the election.
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