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Warm Earth, bigger storms [Baltimore Sun]
Baltimore Sun ^ | October 23, 2005 | Frank D. Roylance

Posted on 10/23/2005 6:45:36 AM PDT by mathprof

This time it's Wilma, howling across the Gulf of Mexico toward a predicted landfall tomorrow on the southwest Florida coast, threatening residents still rebuilding from a battering by four hurricanes last year.

Wilma is this season's 21st named tropical storm and its 12th hurricane -- tying records on both counts. And No. 22 -- Tropical Storm Alpha -- formed yesterday afternoon.

Wilma is the third storm to hit the top of the hurricane intensity scale. Katrina, Rita and Wilma all reached Category 5 at sea, each with top sustained winds of 175 mph. That, too, appears to be an Atlantic basin record for one season. And it's not all hurricanes. Just this month, record early snows covered the Northern Plains, while a week of torrential rain flooded New Hampshire towns and threatened to burst a dam in Massachusetts.

Is this the stormy fate that global warming theorists have long warned about?

Most scientists say it seems to be. They can't say any particular storm is caused by global warming. But they are beginning to see its signature in a clear trend toward more extreme weather.

"Yes, global warming is happening, and the manifestations are now large enough that they're evident," said Kevin E. Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo.

[snip]

Although the Bush administration campaigned to discredit the notion of global warming during its first four years, the president recently conceded that something is amiss.

"I recognize that the surface of the Earth is warmer and that an increase in greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the problem," he told reporters at a Group of Eight summit in July.

But he has rejected the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement that would limit greenhouse gas emissions.

(Excerpt) Read more at baltimoresun.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: chickenlittle; globalwarning; katrina
Did W really say, "I recognize that the surface of the Earth is warmer and that an increase in greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the problem,"?
1 posted on 10/23/2005 6:45:36 AM PDT by mathprof
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To: mathprof

>>>>But he has rejected the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement that would limit greenhouse gas emissions.


WRONG! An international agreement that would hobble the US economy and do nothing about Greenhouse Gasses. That would have made that statement news, rather than propaganda.


2 posted on 10/23/2005 6:49:16 AM PDT by .cnI redruM (Because change is not something you talk into existence.)
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To: .cnI redruM

If the 0.5 degree warming is causing a bunch of Cat 5 hurricanes, just wait until the 5 degree temperatures set in.

Under this global warming model, the top half of North America is under Ice, the bottom half is just one big Cat 5 hurricane and, in between, it is just a big desert with no rainfall.


3 posted on 10/23/2005 6:54:52 AM PDT by JustDoItAlways
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To: .cnI redruM
Its only when its hot or when a big storm comes through that the "Chicken Littles" scream Global Warming.

One of my wife's friends say the Polar Bears are an endangered species because all the ice is gone and they are starving all over their normal range.

Not too much was said a few years back when the jet stream dipped and we had the coldest Nov/Dec ever on record.
4 posted on 10/23/2005 6:56:32 AM PDT by PeteB570 (Guns, what real men want for Christmas)
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To: mathprof

While reading this I started the countdown before Bush was mentioned at the finger pointing began, and sure enough...5...4..3...2...1...."He rejected the Koyoto protocol..blah blah" Amazing... in billions of years of evolution without success, in a matter of only 5 years one human being comes along who is all powerful enough to control the weather! "Rain, storms, hurricanes I say!"


5 posted on 10/23/2005 6:56:47 AM PDT by WillamShakespeare (Who is John Kerry?)
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To: mathprof

So how do they propose to explain past storm cycle surges of the 1930s and ALSO in the 18th century??

Any real warming effects are primarily - if not soley, the results of increased solar activity.


6 posted on 10/23/2005 6:57:23 AM PDT by VRWCTexan (History has a long memory - but still repeats itself)
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To: mathprof
Life begun when the Baltimore Sun begun.

Makes it convenient to ignore the other 8 billion years.
7 posted on 10/23/2005 6:57:40 AM PDT by Tarpon
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To: mathprof
As a child 40 to 50 years ago the wackos were actively pushing the theory that the world was headed into a new ice age as the result of man's air pollution cooling the earth -- and all types of articles were published about mankind freezing in the dark of an extended winter.
8 posted on 10/23/2005 7:00:41 AM PDT by VRWCTexan (History has a long memory - but still repeats itself)
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To: mathprof
?

Experts say this is just phase II of the normal hurricane cycle. You get decades long phases ~ some with lots of storms, and some with a few storms. This is a "lots of storms" phase.

This was going on in the Ice Age itself!

9 posted on 10/23/2005 7:01:05 AM PDT by muawiyah (/ hey coach do I gotta' put in that "/sarcasm " thing again? How'bout a double sarcasm for this one)
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To: mathprof
But he has rejected the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement that would limit greenhouse gas emissions.

I believe this was the Senate, not the President.

10 posted on 10/23/2005 7:05:58 AM PDT by SouthTexas (Texans vote FOR prop 2, Nov 8th)
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To: VRWCTexan
The current theory is that our development of agriculture is the primary force behind holding back an impending Ice Age. They are even able to show that world temperatures dropped precipitously when the American Indians died off. It was only by repopulating the Americas and starting farming again that we saved ourselves from freezing to death in the dark.

Currently, as we venture even further into Ice Age conditions (which are masked by human caused global warming), we are actually heating things up by blowing off vast clouds of carbon dioxide and other heat absorbing gases.

There, does that make you happy?

Oh, one more item in the current theory ~ when we run out of fossil fuels in 200 or so years, the ice comes back with a vengeance ~ instant Ice Age ~ billions of deaths ~ it's horrible ~ oh, the humanity!

11 posted on 10/23/2005 7:06:18 AM PDT by muawiyah (/ hey coach do I gotta' put in that "/sarcasm " thing again? How'bout a double sarcasm for this one)
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To: mathprof
I am willing to accept that the earth is getting warmer, at least compared to the last few hundred years which in the grand scheme of things is a drop in the bucket. I am also willing to accept that greenhouse gases is one of the factors that may contribute to the problem. But too many people on the left are jumping on this, demanding that we redistribute all of our wealth and roll back the industrial revolution. That make me regard the whole thing with suspicion.
12 posted on 10/23/2005 7:21:43 AM PDT by beef (Who Killed Kennewick Man?)
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To: mathprof

Yes, here is what his EPA says:

"According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."

Source: http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.html


13 posted on 10/23/2005 7:24:08 AM PDT by va4me ("Government isn't the solution to the problem, it is the problem" - Ronald Reagan)
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To: mathprof
Is this the stormy fate that global warming theorists have long warned about?

Most scientists say it seems to be. They can't say any particular storm is caused by global warming. But they are beginning to see its signature in a clear trend toward more extreme weather.

"Most scientists?" Wrong. Maybe most EarthFirst "scientists," but among serious climatologists and meterologists, this is all part of a cycle. Things go up, and things go down. If a small delta in sea temps can spawn "this" then we're doomed!

14 posted on 10/23/2005 7:25:20 AM PDT by nj_pilot
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To: mathprof
They have not explained how the record set in 1933 for number of storms, was caused by GLOBAL WARMING, 75 years before it was 'trendy'. Explain that one ecofacists!
15 posted on 10/23/2005 7:27:17 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: All
From the NCAR website...

UCAR, NCAR, and UOP are part of a collaborative community dedicated to understanding the atmosphere—the air around us—and the interconnected processes that make up the Earth system, from the ocean floor to the Sun's core.
 
The National Center for Atmospheric Research and the UCAR Office of Programs provide research, facilities, and services for the atmospheric and Earth sciences community. NCAR and UOP are managed by the nonprofit University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Notice how the Sun article leaves you with the impression that NCAR is a government agency? It's not.

It is, in fact an NGO made up of climate researcers. You know, those folks who will get all kind of grants if Chicken Little begins winning elections. The Sun's "companion" article is on the NCAR website here. Once again, the religious Left is using their sympathetic shills in the MSM to promote their agenda under the guise of news.

16 posted on 10/23/2005 7:27:36 AM PDT by timpad (The Wizard Tim, Keeper of the Holy Hand Grenade, Finder of Obscurata)
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To: mathprof
There are other reasons for Atlantic warming, and if history is any indication, I wouldn't buy FL real estate for the next decade or so:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php

17 posted on 10/23/2005 7:28:38 AM PDT by NY.SS-Bar9 (DR #1692)
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To: SouthTexas

Yeah! I seem to recall that! What was the vote? Hmmmm, nobody voted for it! What, that can't be right. It's Bushco's fault. Halliburton! chimpy!


18 posted on 10/23/2005 7:28:55 AM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra ("Don't touch that thing")
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To: Dr. Bogus Pachysandra

I believe it was under another President too, but let's not confuse the issues with facts.


19 posted on 10/23/2005 7:32:15 AM PDT by SouthTexas (Texans vote FOR prop 2, Nov 8th)
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To: mathprof

I've noticed that my neighborhood is actually getting cooler than it was a few months ago.


20 posted on 10/23/2005 7:32:20 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The democRATS are near the tipping point.)
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To: mathprof
…an increase in greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the problem…

But how much we are contributing is the question. Our last ice age peaked about 20,000 years ago, then the Earth began warming on a global scale. How much did humans contribute to that global warming?
21 posted on 10/23/2005 7:39:11 AM PDT by R. Scott (Humanity i love you because when you're hard up you pawn your Intelligence to buy a drink.)
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To: mathprof
Scientists have noticed the polar ice caps of MARS are considerably smaller than a few decades ago. It is global warming on MARS and the culprit??? The sun is HOTTER than it was a couple of decades ago... Karl Rove...George Bush...Dick Chaney?????

NO! the sun is HOTTER....when will these people get it.
22 posted on 10/23/2005 7:39:53 AM PDT by Vaquero ("An armed society is a polite society" R. A. Heinlein)
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To: mathprof
Is this the stormy fate that global warming theorists have long warned about?

Most scientists say it seems to be.

Couldn't get past this statement. I'd love for the purveyors of this crap to please list all scientists in the world, then poll them and find out exactly how many "most" are. This article is complete and utter steaming BS.....

23 posted on 10/23/2005 8:00:18 AM PDT by Thermalseeker (-)
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To: mathprof
Why then were there more and bigger storms between 1900 and 1950 than between 1950 and 2005? And what explains the quite 1980's period?
24 posted on 10/23/2005 8:07:01 AM PDT by NavyCanDo
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To: mathprof

Cold earth, bigger and deeper snow storms.


25 posted on 10/23/2005 8:10:04 AM PDT by F.J. Mitchell (How the hell could Bush have pass up a Ronnie Earle to appoint a Harriet Miers to the Court?)
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To: PeteB570
Not too much was said a few years back when the jet stream dipped and we had the coldest Nov/Dec ever on record.

In the last two years I lived in Boston, we had two bitter, incredibly bone-chilling winters. I remember visiting my ultra-lib, ecoNazi friend one day, and asking him, (admittedly, I was a bit snide when I asked this...) "I thought we were facing global warming, what IS it with this weather?"

His response was a dead-panned, ultra serious, "Well, global cooling is the first sign of global warming..."

D'oh!

26 posted on 10/23/2005 8:40:01 AM PDT by RepoGirl ("The only ho I'm pimpin' is Sweet Lady Propane." -- Hank Hill)
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To: NavyCanDo
Mother Nature knew better than to PO Ol' Ronnie.

She saw what he did to Qaddafi when he drew his line of death in the bay.
27 posted on 10/23/2005 8:47:38 AM PDT by PeteB570 (Guns, what real men want for Christmas)
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To: SouthTexas
I believe this was the Senate, not the President.

Bush wasn't even President when the Senate said no way. If Bush can't even get a Supreme Court nominee through what makes anyone believe he can override a unanimous Senate?

28 posted on 10/23/2005 9:05:28 AM PDT by Mike Darancette (Mesocons for Rice '08)
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To: mathprof
But he has rejected the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement that would limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Is there ANY evidence on record that anyone was exposed to greenhouse gases during a hurricane?

29 posted on 10/23/2005 9:34:59 AM PDT by FDNYRHEROES (Liberals are not optimistic; they are delusional.)
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To: mathprof
Most scientists say it seems to be.

I call bull****.

30 posted on 10/23/2005 10:28:57 AM PDT by denydenydeny ("As a Muslim of course I am a terrorist"--Sheikh Omar Brooks, quoted in the London Times 8/7/05)
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To: mathprof

Global warming is caused by the sun. Duh. Not by "man". Duh.

But the leftist moronic media will say this winter is colder than normal, in order to jibe with their stories about the high cost of heating oil, natural gas and electricity.
One Mount St. Helens eruption (nature doing its thing) is more significant than all the cars in LA for 50 years.


31 posted on 10/23/2005 11:00:24 AM PDT by pleikumud
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To: mathprof
Before I'll accept their hysterics for anything other than the ravings of lunatics on the global warming gravy train, they need to explain how burning fossil fuels here on earth is causing global warming on mars and pluto!
32 posted on 10/23/2005 11:45:48 AM PDT by zeugma (Warning: Self-referential object does not reference itself.)
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To: VRWCTexan
So how do they propose to explain past storm cycle surges of the 1930s and ALSO in the 18th century?

Not to mention the numerous, periodic ice ages. I imagine that a couple of thousand feet of ice covering Canada down through New York, northern Eurasia, etc. would make these environmental nuts blow a cork. The earth is marked with huge features that inform anyone who cares to look that it is a dynamic place with massive and often violent upheavals in climate, terrain, species, atmosphere, etc. We as a species grew up in an ice age. Some scientists say that if not for global warming from whatever, we would be in another ice age - maybe it is a good thing, duh?

Perhaps we should think about engineering our world to be more habitable. How about digging a broad canal through Panama and letting the Pacific ocean dilute the salty Atlantic. That would stop the periodic ice ages, warm the polar regions, and cool the tropics, and maybe reduce the fury of typhoons and hurricanes.

33 posted on 10/23/2005 1:06:03 PM PDT by GregoryFul
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To: SouthTexas
I believe this was the Senate, not the President.

Democrat Senate under Clinton wasn't it?

34 posted on 10/23/2005 3:16:56 PM PDT by ncountylee (Dead terrorists smell like victory)
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To: pleikumud

If we just repeal the law of gravity the "Global Warming" should all go away. That will cut the pressure in the interior of the sun which powers its radiation and it will reduce the pressure at the core of the earth which heats and spits up hot lava. But, there may be some side effects!


35 posted on 10/23/2005 3:25:00 PM PDT by MilleniumBug
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To: .cnI redruM; mathprof
People interested in the scientific discussion of global warming and the advisability of the Kyoto nostrums and the British government's movement away from Kyoto since the G-8 conference at Gleneagles last July might want to google up the website of Prof. Benny Peiser, a UK academic and Kyoto skeptic who edits the Cambridge Conference mailing list (links on his webpage).

His principal interest area academically is potential earth impactors, astroblemes, past impact events, paleocatastrophism, climatology, and paleoclimatology. And, of course, environmental "policy", so-called. He has a minor planetoid, or planetesimal, named for him.

One of his articles has been posted to FR in the recent past.

As a side note, Peiser has recently come to the conclusion that recent announcements and press releases by the British Government indicate that, as far as HM Gov't. are concerned,

Kyoto is dead!

That appreciation is beginning to become apparent among the green community as well.

36 posted on 10/23/2005 3:28:58 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus ("Whatever." -- sinkspur)
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To: GregoryFul
Some scientists say that if not for global warming from whatever, we would be in another ice age - maybe it is a good thing, duh?

The evidence is very powerful that we're still in the Pleistocene.

The long Milankovich Cycles related to planetary movements around the sun and slight irregularities therein that produce small temperature variations (which are nevertheless big enough to spell the difference between an ice-free Arctic and continental glaciation) produce long warm cycles, called interglacials, that are about 12,000 years long, and episodes of heavy glaciation, called pleniglacials ("full icing").

We are deep into the current interglacial and have about 800-1200 years left, before temperatures roll off radically and we go back to pleniglacial climatic conditions. Some paleoclimatologists have estimated the transition periods between full glacial and full warm climates to have been as short as 20 years, with occasional oscillations back from one to the other: at the end of the last pleniglacial, the climate suddenly reverted, in a phase called the Younger Dryas, to roughly full-glacial conditions for a period of centuries, before the warming resumed.

When the transition to full glaciation occurs, we'll wish we had burned every pound of soft coal in China. Humanity will be crying for a "greenhouse" then.

The talk about "runaway greenhouse" effects was begun by the information from various Venus probes, which show that such a greenhouse appears to exist there, with surface temperatures about 700 degrees F.

If we blew away most of Venus's (sulfur-rich, unbreatheable) atmosphere, we might be able to alleviate those high temps -- get them all the way down to, say, 200 degrees! If we could get the sulfur gases to drop out (or blow them away from the planet and into the sun), that would be even better. But file that under "future projects" for now.

That's where most of the "greenhouse" worry and chitchat came from. The idea is that, with CO2 in the atmosphere, one could plausibly hypothecate that atmospheric temperatures would begin to spiral upward toward Venerean levels. Never mind that we're 27,000,000 miles farther away from the sun and receive half the solar energy Venus's atmosphere does. Never mind, likewise, that the sort of temperatures recorded on Venus would turn Earth's seas to water vapor, something that has never happened in geological history, including the early Cambrian and Ordovician Periods of 400-500 million years ago, when the atmosphere was mostly C02 and methane anyway.

37 posted on 10/23/2005 3:52:18 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus ("Whatever." -- sinkspur)
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To: mathprof

Trying to have an intelligent conversation with a liberal about anything is becoming more and more like talking to a fence post.


38 posted on 11/10/2005 9:52:21 AM PST by Tarpon
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