Posted on 10/15/2005 7:37:03 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
He has predicted the demise of the communist regime for one simple reason. Automobiles!, (actually Democracy throught Capitalism). Under the "Old" communist regime your could not leave your neighborhood except to go to work. Other travel had to be approved by the political leader of your block who would issue you a travel permit. Today China is the second largest importer of oil to fuel their industries AND their auto fleet.
With autos comes the freedom to travel and travel permits become obsolete. As income levels have risen the demand for SUVs have increased. Ed Wallace's prediction that Democracy will replace the current government structure is coming to pass.
What are you, a copy writer for a PR firm?
How many cliches do we need to hear.
How come whenever the issue is China it becomes lump cliches.
I know I sound cranky, nothing personal, but such analysis is so bland superficial and meaningless as to be irritating.
Unfortunately such platitudinous empty rhetoric passes as "expertise" so often. It's weird.
It seems like nonsense, I agree. But if you read the press reports about this, there is no other way to interpret it. And it's not just the press' biased viewpoint, I don't think.
The peasants are up in arms because they can't handle change. They don't want industrialization coming to their neighborhoods. They are angry because their land is being taken to build factories. They are upset about toxic waste dumps being placed in their areas. They are opposed to young Chinese settlers coming into their area from the big cities. They dislike the elite who come into town driving cars when they've only got bicycles. The list of grievances is long, but they all seem to stem from the fact that they don't like the changes that are being implemented by Beijing.
You'd think that they'd be happy to have the opportunities that capitalism brings, but apparently they are more envious because the benefits are not flowing down to them nearly as fast as they are flowing to the city dwellers.
A good example is the riot that was caused in one of the provinces because some party officials driving a car accidentally hit a youth on a bicycle. Apparently, there have been a number of incidents like that.
I agree with his point of view.
China is, as I am sure you know, an extremely complex place. Minority groups, especially Moslems and Tibetans in the west, will take advantage of any weakening in the government to push for independence. Rural areas are poor and view the world through an entirely different lens than the new capitalists of the eastern metropolises.
I don't think anyone can accurately predict what will happen when the communist regime falls. There are just too many forces at work, operating in different directions. A bumpy ride is an understatement, in my opinion.
1989 saw the demise of the regime based upon people power, the effects of engagement and move toward market capitalism etc...
Everything that was supposed to happen did happen.
But, the regime used its military to massacre unarmed citizens.
All the scenarios and speculations put forth here about how China will transform happened and we saw the response.
I was about to use my favorite word, but that may scare quite a few here, so I held my tongue.:)
They are not trustworthy, steal land and property for their own "capitalistic uses".
They may do some scheme where huge amounts of toxic material is produced and they will simply dump it.
This is not aversion to capitalism.
The liberal leftist press will present it in that manner.
It has nothing to do with capitalism at all.
It is truly amazing how fighting back against the abuses of a national socialist oligarchy is spun to be a fight against capitalism.
That is what happens when a totalitarian regime tried to hang on to its power at all costs. The momentum for change is piling up behind the wall the regime has erected. At some point in near future, the wall would crack under pressure, and all the pent-up pressure would be release in a big bang. Communists would not do an orderly retreat. Their retreat and demise would be a terrible mess.
And the shock wave from the big bang will reverberate around the world, probably more so than the fall of Soviet Union. The map of E. Asia could be redrawn in the process.
Cars will demand oil, roads and freedoms to move about. The Internet provides the other motivating factor since China can pirate DVDs and CDs and expect their workers to ignore the view of the world that is apparant, albeit abberrant!!
You might be right as a philosophical matter. But I suspect that in the minds of the peasants, it's a fight against capitalism. Your average peasant probably can't make the distinction you've made. They don't even know what capitalism is. All they know is that they've been told that capitalism is coming to China, and they don't like it.
It's is different.
I do, though, agree completely with the idea.
A democratic republic is just around the corner! The first step of the long journey has been taken.
No more tyranny for these patriots! No sir!
Party ideologues joyfully jump aside and let the Party wither away -- "We don't care about Marx and Mao, regional and world power -- we just loooooooooove to make cheap goods for our friends in America. We are grateful to American corporations. Soon we will all be middle class, buy all things for our homes, bowl, vote, and stuff like that. Thank you, Americans!"
(Keep that free tradin' transfer of technology, wealth, and production flowing, guys. I think we got 'em.)
It is the western lefty elites of the media turning it around and making it anti-capitalist.
That sounds like our government.
That might work except the powers in charge will just cut off the oil when want to exert power.
With cars comes fun too, quite liberating. :0)
However, people are still pretty much defenseless.
Traffic can be controlled.
They can demand accountability all they want...but as long as the government controls the media, their access to the Internet, has all the guns, and doesn't even allow a fart without a 10-year plan, I think it's a bit pollyannic to claim the people are going to "rise up" at all.
"PARTY" pooper.
Chinese history is littered with tumultuous peasant uprisings. Already China is experiencing hundreds of local riots and violent protests drawing tens of thousand people at a time. With economy deteriorating, power struggle will erupt amid faltering control by Chinese communist regime.
With these events, military may try to overshadow the party in order to maintain the control of the country. With uncertainty like this and lack of strong central leadership, provinces will assert their own powers, and join the power struggle.
This kind of development is quite conducive to massive civil riot or uprising.
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