Posted on 09/24/2005 5:02:19 PM PDT by FairOpinion
The problem is, that Merkel not really won the election. She doesn't have enough votes to form a coalition with the FDP. Therefore she needs the SPD and its consent to gouvern.
There will be a high price she has to pay. To me it would be better to accept different persons than a programmatic retreat. Germany needs change and not only a new chancellor with the old program. There are enough people on the conservative side like Koch, Wulff or Schaueble, who could take over the lead. It would help the SPD to move without loosing their faces. Schroeder is doomed anyway, but he made up the question who will be the next chancellor as a matter of personal "honour". Since he made a really terrific election campain for the SPD (the CDU was in polls over 45% only a few weeks before the election) he managed to get strong personal support inside the party again. Therefore they will accept all his decisions. Those SPD-guys (Kurt Beck and Henning Scherf) who made the unloyal remarks about Schroeder, do not have enough influence to force their party into a certain direction. If Schroeder goes, he will be rewarded as a martyr who sacrificed his personal career to the "Vaterland" For his failures he will get a high pension, a contract with Gasprom and public recognition. This fact is pissing me off to no end, since I will have to pay for the damage he has done to my country over many years.
BTW - I am sure that Peer Steinbrueck of the SPD, who is not that bad, will play a important role in the new gouvernment. The critical question will not be the new faces, but the the new program of the German administration. It seem to stay interesting...
We do not need him anymore. His name is standing for uncontrolled public spending, high taxes and a system of personal advantages. Although he was on the "conservative" side, he is responsible for most erroneous trends in contemporary Germany. He and his administration failed in making the right decisions in the right time.
As long as Speer does the lighting.
I agree. Helmut Kohl was no Konrad Adenauer.
It seems to me that this election reveals that the Germans realize that their country is broke, but they can't agree on how to fix it. One of the reasons Schroeder was so unpopular was that he tried to make small cuts in welfare spending, not enough to do much good, but enough to cause pain and anger. The Germans seem to have lost their postwar work ethic, and somehow need to recover it.
The thing is, that even under a "conservative" German gouvernment, there will be no real German contribution in the US/UK efforts against Muslim terrorism, if you translate that with Iraq. Since the whole public in western Europe is completely against it, there is no chance for the new German administration (who consists by half of social democrats) to join into the line of the supporters of the Iraq war.
The main problem with the Iraq war and the European public is, that the people on the old continent are absolutely not convinced about the honest objectives of this war. This is not a German (or French) phenomenon soley. Those gouvernemts who participated (like Italy) will probably have to pay a bitter price in the coming elections (the UK are a exception, because there is no eligible alternative to Tony Blair in the moment). If the war would have a different odor, there would be much more backup. Schroeders dumb and silly propaganda about Halliburton ("No blood for oil") spoiled all possibilities.
Yep! Germans are not lazy but too unflexible. The German industy is doing well, because the high employment costs lead to a extremely high efficiency during the 80ties and 90ties. The productivity/worker is the highest on this planet. We export more goods than any other country in this world.
Proof?
http://www.independent-media.tv/item.cfm?fmedia_id=11842&fcategory_desc=Economy
But there is a problem:
All those jobless people are simply not needed anymore in the machine-oriented German industry. Since working in consumer services has a bad reputation among job-seeking Germans (i.e. they think they are underprivileged if they do something for somebody...and other BS) we do not have this kind of jobs, that absorbe uneducated people elsewhere. America is a good example for a broader working base. It is still not possible to find anybody in Germany to bring your shopping bags to your car for example, although we have an unemployment rate of 10.6%.
This is why you should lose a 15 point lead to begin with!!!
Interesting.
America has always shown an unprecedented ability to be flexible, and therefore "creative destruction" works better here than in countries that are slower to change their ways. I knew that was true of Japan, and I can see how it would also be true of Germany.
But whether America can keep doing it, I don't know. I'm nervous about the future direction of our economy.
I'm predicting another election by January. I don't see this mess being resolved. Schroeder is too dim to realize what is happening and stuck on himself. The SPD still has this idea that they wait this out and then they get a chance to form a government...and the FDP will step right in to be a partner. After watching all the FDP comments for the past week...that would be the last thing on their mind. The only partner Schroder can make is his buddy and enemy...Oskar and the lefties.
So prepare for January elections...and the two curious things to prepare for...the FDP will likely take 12 percent in the next election...and the NPD and Republicans will seek to combine, thus making their necessary 5 percent to sit in the Bundestag. And if you think it was impossible this go around to build a majority...just add the NPD/Republicans into the entire mix.
Cogent analyses! Thanks!
Schade, daß die meisten hier das alles nicht begreifen wollen!
I think cogent analysis is usually appreciated if not always understood on this site. That is one of the reasons this site attracts readers from all over the globe. One thread here provides as much actual insight as a year's worth of watching the mainstream media (in any country).
But like De Gaul he's a "nationalist". Their idea of conservative and liberal is different than ours, as is the case in near all of Europe. The French "socialists" are more malleable and easier to work with than their conservative counterparts who are still socialist in their market/economic views. The nationalists are more about preserving French culture, tighter security, military might, neo-colonialist in foreign policy, and so on…… Economically both can be regarded as socialists just one is a more nationalistic minded socialist (France first and screw the rest!).
The nationalists are harder to work with than the socialists. The nationalists see NATO in opposition to their interests. No NATO and Europe leans on France for security issues. The nationalists see power in opposing us. By going against us on most UN resolutions they gain power and influence in many places. They tend to be bigger bottom feeders when it comes to arms sales as witnessed with their lobbying to drop EU arms restrictions against China. Neither will bring real economic reforms to France, but the nationalists see themselves in competition and at times in opposition to us.
Germany and France are in the same boat in one respect: Conservative and liberal governments both have a "socialist" view on economics and market activities. But in Germany it's the political left that is harder to work with. In their case it's an ideology (We embody the opposite of what they preach) and inferiority complexes that is driving the train. Schroeder pounded the hate America, Bush Cowboy, no blood for oil all the way to a near reelection.
It’s a strange twist!
Red6
I am not going to argue about the theory.
But, in the practical application of this theory to Germany, it has proven to be wrong. Schroeder is one of the most anti-US chancellors of Germany in recent past.
Merckel will be a lot better. She does not have a mandate though. That is why I am in favor of letting Schroeder screw up more.
What kind of thinking is that? That conservtives should only be in power if they can initiate "true" reforms? It is a certainty that Angel Merkel can implement no reforms whatsoever if she concedes, and though far from certain that any reforms will result if she wins, the chances are infinitely better. This is not a wasted opportunity. It is an opportunity.
I'm sorry, but I just don't see how giving up is a good way to win anything. By your reasoning, we should have let Al Gore have the White House.
May be you know, and are still asking these questions.
The only way she can come to power is to either form a coalition with Schroeder's party or the German Greens.
What conservative policies can she implement?
Answer is ZERO.
In the US, the system of governance works quite differently.
So, your equation of Bush/Gore to Schroeder/Merckel does not apply.
"The Germans seem to have lost their postwar work ethic, and somehow need to recover it." You said
40 years ago, MON and FRI absenteeism because of some rave party was not heard of. The German lived to work, today they work to live (Well, some of them work). They even coined new terms like "Null Bock" -
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=null+bock
Productivity is actually LOWER per hour and I gave links in another post. Most of the statistics they like to throw around in their creative utopic interpretation of productivity are from "specific industries" (Say the chemical or auto industry alone), and not economy wide (Ex. They will exclude anything in the service, agriculture…… sectors).
Here are some more links on productivity:
http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/communications/pdf/2004/21230304/omahony-timmer.pdf
http://www.forfas.ie/ncc/reports/ncc_annual_05/ch03/ch03_02.html (Go to the fourth chart)
(On average, the productivity level of the EU-15 was at 92% of the U.S. level in 2004)
http://www.conference-board.org/utilities/pressDetail.cfm?press_ID=2560
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-30-2002/0001658666&EDATE=
This is a fairly good one and the ones following are from this site: http://www.bls.gov/fls/home.htm
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ichcc.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/fls/flsgdp.pdf
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/09/04/national/main571560.shtml
The FACT is that productivity is higher in the US. It is higher per hour in MOST (Remember they like to show figures only for certain areas) industries and higher per person on a national average if figured GDP/workforce because of more hours per year worked than any other nation on earth (The average US worker works about 1825 hours a year).
After WWII the Germans had a huge advantage. An extremely fat person trying to loose weight often looses several pounds very rapidly with little effort. The opposite is true when you have nothing and begin to grow. The German economy after WWII rose like a Phoenix from the ashes and had HUGE productivity gains for several years. After a while these gains began to taper off. You can’t maintain this!
Furthermore, some are offended and will deny it. But Germany was immensely helped after WWII. We intentionally fixed a favorable exchange rate to stimulate their economy. You had massive investments of the DoD which even today are in the range of 10 Billion a year. If you go back just 20 years you’re looking at three times that, or 1.5% of the entire German economy which we pumped into them year after year after year. A lot of this today is gone! The fixed exchange rates ended with Reagan, the withdraw of US forces sucked out a lot of consumption…….
The unemployment in Germany is over 11.7% (http://www.bpb.de/wissen/H9NU28,0,Arbeitslose_und_Arbeitslosenquote.html ) official site. Of course this stat is for 2004.
Another official .de government site puts the unemployment at 11.4% (http://www.pub.arbeitsamt.de/hst/services/statistik/000000/html/start/karten/aloq_aa.html ) not 10.6%. Here’s the link to the front page: http://www.pub.arbeitsamt.de/hst/services/statistik/000000/html/start/index.shtml or you can use the German equivalent of the GAO (http://www.destatis.de/indicators/d/arb210ad.htm ). His 10.6% is Bull$hit.
Worse yet. While the Germans live in their dreamed up fantasy world they talk of US discrepancies in accounting for unemployment and net economic growth. You see, it’s all fake! We’re actually all poor! At the same time the Germans REDEFINE essentially the definition of unemployed. How that? Well, the unemployment took a steep downturn once Harz hit and the government decided disqualify those job seekers in retraining (yet unable to find a job) programs or who take 1 Euro jobs. In other words, many people are just not counted in their newspeak version of unemployment. Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=71000001&refer=news_index&sid=as0vGJBvnMGM Yes, 1 Euro jobs-600,000 of them max are NOT counted into the German unemployment statistic.
But OK, our little “Hurra Deutschland” team wants to tell us it’s ONLY a meager 10.2%- Fine. Even when they try to sugarcoat the terd, it still smells bad and will taste like $hit. They can’t make it look good even when they lie.
Red6
There is no doubt that Merkel is better for us. Even for the German economy she will be better in the long run (Relaxing of environmental restrictions etc). HOWEVER, she will not shake things up as far as tax code, tax level/burden, structures etc is concerned. In essence, she's a more nationalistic German still with a socialist view of economics.
So Turkey in the EU = No
But what does she intend to do with the VAT? Raise it!
Do away with Kindergeld, Pflegeversicherung …..? No
What broad sweeping economic changes will she institute? NONE!
However, for us she’s a blessing. She is less willing to play stupid games with international security issues whether Iran, Iraq, China or Columbia. While the Germans won’t do much, they will at least not fall into our back. However, the opposition will still play that game. Expect more under the table support and cooperation; less Schroeder type grand standing in the UN, NATO and EU in such issues.
Red6
And if the media began to show the pictures of the torture and the mass graves, if they actually broadcast the trial of Saddam Hussain, then would the German people remain indifferent? If day after day on the news the broken bodies of the people who were scarred forever, horribly maimed were shown, would the German people still be against it? If they read the first hand accounts of the Halabja massacre, would they not care? If they heard from the Marsh Arabs, would they remain unmoved? If they watched the films of the Iraqi women digging in the mass graves with their bare hands until their fingers bled just to try to find some trace of their loved ones, would the German people be able to turn their backs?
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