Posted on 08/03/2005 8:03:02 AM PDT by humint
When oil is the topic, we find that even our enemies are hard-nosed and realistic. While there is a lot of speculation in the area of scams by fly-by-night operators in the oil investment market such as project oil reserves yet to be discovered, oil pros try their best to project accurately whether Texan, Iranian, or Russian.
Agreed, however Iran has consistently pushed for an increase in prices within OPEC. The Saudis have kept prices reasonable until now... The Iranian government has demonstrated a willingness to attack U.S. interests on every front including the oil industry. Petroleum prices have a direct impact on our economy and no matter how accurate the price estimate is, Iran’s policies are the rocket propulsion driving oil prices into the stratosphere.
If we take that route; think broken glass. Earthquakes like the one in Bam would break it up good... besides that, drilling for oil or gas through glass is bound to make a mess.
At the moment, it looks like the Iranian people are pissed off enough to take care of this problem themselves. A democratic Iran [what the Iranian people want and are working for] would bring the country back in the community of nations and put an end to the U.S.-Iran fued. A democratic Iran would be much more likely to put its oil revenue into social programs, ie. education and roads, and spend less time executing political dissidents, making missiles and funding terrorism in the ME, EU and US.
It might be so. Gov't policy affecting oil prices can be noxious, as it was when the Saudis, our friends, staged their oil embargo. There is OPEC though, which definitely is the main control over oil price. They would like to have oil price high, but at the same time want to keep their market viable. If they set the price too high, they lose business even if the world oil supply is not as elastic as it once was. The last thing they want is for oil consuming markets to turn to nuclear power and permanently reduce oil imports.
Internationally accepted policy is to have a balanced and stable price. If the price for oil is too high, huge wealth transfers to the oil producing countries where as the oil consuming countries can't afford to produce or ship products. This sparks a recession which will inevitably lead to reduced demand for everything, including petroleum products.
Alternative energy sources in consuming countries introduce a stabilizing factor that benefits the entire energy sector. Iran is an interesting case. As an oil producer, their nuclear bid is causing instability and is in line with other aggressive behavior that should be a major cause for concern. The Iranian system of Valeyat -E-Faqhee or supreme religious rule is a regressive and confrontational system. The fact that they own a significant portion of the world's proven energy reserves is very disconcerting, to say the least.
Interesting analysis. If Iran goes nuclear, they wouldn't need to consume their own oil product and would have more to sell, but they are a smallish market themselves. If India goes more nuclear, they wouldn't need so much oil product. Same for China, Japan, EU, and America, the major and coming major consumers.
Indo-US nuke pact only to help N Delhi produce peaceful energy Aug 3, 2005 03:20:00 PM
Islamabad, Aug 3 (PTI) Making it clear that it would not assist India in producing nuclear weapons, the US has said that the recent nuclear pact signed between the two countries was only to help New Delhi generate energy through peaceful nuclear technology. In a video conference, US Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca also told editors of Pakistani newspapers last night that the ten-year defence pact with India was actually the renewal of an old one and its aim was to stabilise the region. She affirmed US opposition to the India-Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline, saying Tehran had violated the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The India-US nuclear agreement would help India generate only energy through peaceful nuclear technology and would not assist in producing nuclear weapons, Rocca said. "We will not help India make nuclear weapons," she told 'News' daily. The ten-year defence pact with India, she said is actually the renewal of an old one and its aim is to stabilise the region, she said. The US, she said is opposed to the India-Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline as Iran has "violated" the NPT and accused Tehran of sponsoring terrorism. "Its nuclear programme is a matter of great concern for us." PTI
We can only hope Iran's despotic Islamic rulers will not be around longer then this coming winter to enjoy their massive oil profits.
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