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What happens after North Korea falls? - (one expert predicts the fall before end of '05)
US NEWS.COM ^ | MAY 26, 2005 | MICHAEL BARONE

Posted on 05/29/2005 3:23:22 PM PDT by CHARLITE

It pays to take a look at the books George W. Bush hands out to his staffers. Last year Bush's book was Natan Sharansky's The Case for Democracy: The Power of Freedom to Overcome Tyranny and Terror, which argues that countries that do not protect individual rights cannot be reliable partners for peace. You could hear Sharansky's arguments in Bush's extraordinary second inaugural speech in which he promised to promote freedom and democracy in the Middle East and around the world. Bush's critics like to mock him as the sort of person who never read books. But he does, and his reading has consequences.

This year Bush has been handing out copies of The Aquariums of Pyongyang: Ten Years in the North Korean Gulag by Kang Chol-Hwan. This is the harrowing story of a man who returned with his Communist family to North Korea to help build a Communist state and who was instead imprisoned. In the past Bush has denounced the North Korean regime as tyrannical and has been chided by some foreign policy experts for what they consider his allegedly impolitic bluntness. But his championing of The Aquariums of Pyongyang suggests that he is more determined than ever to undermine a regime that is probably the world's worst violator of human rights.

It also suggests that no one should expect this administration to endorse anything resembling the Agreed Framework that Bill Clinton endorsed in 1994. Under that agreement, the United States provided aid to North Korea and refrained from undermining the regime in return for North Korea's promises not to develop nuclear arms. The North Koreans broke their word, but some foreign policy experts argue that a similar agreement is the best we can get from the six-party North Korea talks and should be accepted as at least a way of buying time. Bush has never seemed inclined to support an Agreed Framework II. He has spurned North Korea's demand for direct talks with the United States and has insisted instead on talks that include China, the country best positioned to put pressure on North Korea, and its other neighbors, South Korea, Russia, and Japan.

Now he seems poised to go one step farther and to insist on including the issue of human rights in any negotiations. That is required as well by the North Korean Human Rights Act, passed last fall by overwhelming margins in the Senate and House, despite lukewarm support from the administration and some opposition from South Korea's appeasement-minded government. This act also provided for appointment of a special envoy on human rights to North Korea. To that position Bush is reportedly poised to appoint Jay Lefkowitz, a former deputy domestic adviser in the White House and general counsel at the Office of Management and the Budget in the first Bush term. Lefkowitz has no track record on North Korea. But he started off his political career in the 1980s championing the rights of Soviet Jewry. Friends expect him to be a forceful critic of North Korea's human rights record.

Does any of this matter? No one knows. Kim Jong Il's regime seemingly has a tight hold on power and has been willing to imprison even minor critics. But dictatorial regimes have fallen, suddenly, when ordinary people refuse to follow orders. Washington lawyer Michael Horowitz, who helped construct the alliance of evangelical Christian and Jewish organizations that lobbied for the North Korea Liberation Act, has predicted that the North Korean government will fall before the end of this year. Many others regard this prediction as unduly optimistic. The truth is that when tyrannical regimes fall peacefully, they do so with great suddenness and against the predictions of almost all area experts and foreign policy elites. George W. Bush has accelerated that outcome in the Middle East: It's impossible to imagine the peaceful uprising in Lebanon and the swift departure of Syrian forces from the country they had ruled for decades without the ouster of Saddam Hussein's regime and the holding of free elections in Iraq last January 30. Now it seems that Bush is pursuing a policy designed less to accommodate the North Korean regime than to create the conditions in which it may fall.

If that analysis is correct, the administration also needs to give serious thought to what will happen afterward. The South Korean government is wary of reunification for very good reasons: North Korea's primitive economic condition and the fact that its people have been utterly isolated from outside media and information about the rest of the world mean that reunification will be very much more costly and difficult than the reunification of Germany—and that has had negative economic consequences that persist today after 15 years. If George W. Bush seriously envisions the peaceful end of the Pyongyang regime, as his championing of Aquariums of Pyongyang suggests, his administration needs to think seriously about what comes next.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; Philosophy
KEYWORDS: discussions; fallof; georgewbush; humanrights; kimjungil; michaelbarone; northkorea; regime; uspolicy
If someone could tell me why South Korean students are rioting against America, who has been saving their sorry rear ends for a half century, I would appreciate your comments on this outrageous ingratitude.

Char

1 posted on 05/29/2005 3:23:23 PM PDT by CHARLITE
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To: CHARLITE

The European Union will offer North Korea a deal to prolong the regime beyond 2005.


2 posted on 05/29/2005 3:24:58 PM PDT by Tai_Chung
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To: CHARLITE
...he is more determined than ever to undermine a regime that is probably the world's worst violator of human rights.

This must be a typo. Everyone's heard about the AI report that says the U.S. is the "world's worst violator of human rights." North Korea must be second.

3 posted on 05/29/2005 3:28:07 PM PDT by 68skylark
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To: Tai_Chung

LOL, by the way things are going, the EU won't exist beyond 2005.


4 posted on 05/29/2005 3:29:20 PM PDT by USAfearsnobody
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To: CHARLITE

I'd call it nationalistic blindness in the form of so-called "common Koreity".


5 posted on 05/29/2005 3:29:57 PM PDT by GSlob
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To: CHARLITE
Does any of this matter?

No.

6 posted on 05/29/2005 3:32:29 PM PDT by EGPWS
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To: CHARLITE

I think you've pointed out one of reasons a lot of us will be delighted when the N. Korean government falls -- it will let us reduce our military presence in S. Korea, and give us less exposure to their ingratitude.


7 posted on 05/29/2005 3:32:30 PM PDT by 68skylark
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To: CHARLITE

I assume it will rejoin south korea after the fall, and bankrupt the government.


8 posted on 05/29/2005 3:32:41 PM PDT by Righty_McRight
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To: CHARLITE
If someone could tell me why South Korean students are rioting against America, who has been saving their sorry rear ends for a half century, I would appreciate your comments on this outrageous ingratitude.

They are following the cycle of "Anacyclosis" from slavery to freedom and back to slavery which the historian Polybius described over 2,000 years ago.

Then as long as some of those survive who experienced the evils of oligarchical dominion, they are well pleased with the present form of government, and set a high value on equality and freedom of speech. But when a new generation arises and the democracy falls into the hands of the grandchildren of its founders, they have become so accustomed to freedom and equality that they no longer value them, and begin to aim at pre-eminence; and it is chiefly those of ample fortune who fall into this error. So when they begin to lust for power and cannot attain it through themselves or their own good qualities, they ruin their estates, tempting and corrupting the people in every possible way. And hence when by their foolish thirst for reputation they have created among the masses an appetite for gifts and the habit of receiving them, democracy in its turn is abolished and changes into a rule of force and violence. For the people, having grown accustomed to feed at the expense of others and to depend for their livelihood on the property of others, as soon as they find a leader who is enterprising but is excluded from the houses of office by his penury, institute the rule of violence; and now uniting their forces massacre, banish, and plunder, until they degenerate again into perfect savages and find once more a master and monarch.

9 posted on 05/29/2005 3:35:24 PM PDT by Polybius
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To: CHARLITE

Maybe the two Koreas can be united and progress will be made. It will be a long, hard road but the Korean Peninsula should not be divided.


10 posted on 05/29/2005 3:35:35 PM PDT by Red Sea Swimmer (Tisha5765Bav)
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To: CHARLITE

South Korea will have plenty of extra parking to its north.


11 posted on 05/29/2005 3:40:58 PM PDT by SteveMcKing
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To: CHARLITE

Islam will break out.


12 posted on 05/29/2005 3:44:36 PM PDT by TADSLOS (Right Wing Infidel since 1954)
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To: CHARLITE
Should Kim Il Jong's reign end and there's turmoil, look to N.Korea becoming a new Chinese province.
13 posted on 05/29/2005 3:45:40 PM PDT by BIGLOOK (I once opposed keelhauling but recently have come to my senses.)
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To: CHARLITE
What happens after North Korea falls?

Millions of North Koreans will eat again.

14 posted on 05/29/2005 3:48:20 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Leftists would have no standards at all)
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To: Texas Eagle
Sounds good to me. McDonalds will make inroads into that country more quickly than a ferret down a drainpipe.
15 posted on 05/29/2005 3:50:08 PM PDT by Red Sea Swimmer (Tisha5765Bav)
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To: CHARLITE
the alliance of evangelical Christian and Jewish organizations that lobbied for the North Korea Liberation Act, has predicted that the North Korean government will fall before the end of this year.

From their lips to God's ear.

ol hoghead

16 posted on 05/29/2005 3:52:27 PM PDT by ol' hoghead (If Islam is the ROP, why do Moslems cut our throuts and blaspheme saying "Allah akbar"?)
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To: CHARLITE

Aquariums is a powerful book, and should be read by all. The descriptions of the work camps are harrowing -- families having to raise rats secretly in order to survive, the hateful treatment of the children by the indifferent teachers and guards. The author describes his return to South Korea, and his confrontation w/ Marxist South Korean college students, and these useful idiots refuse to believe what is going on north of the border. They fantasize and valorize Kim Jong Il and his regime, and simply will not accept any direct evidence that contradicts their marxist utopia.

The reason why so many South Koreans are ungrateful is because ungratefullness is natural. Few people want to be indebted to anyone else, especially when it comes to morality. If someone feels indebted to someone, the debt is very personal--like someone saying "I'm indebted to my father" or "to my wife". This is in a way reflexive back on the speaker because of the connection--sure, my father/wife is more honorable than me for raising me/loving me, but because I am that person's son/spouse, therefore I partake in that honor in some way. But when it is by nature impersonal--feeling indebted to people of a different nationality and language, to tax payers and soldier families thousands of miles away, shame sinks in. There is no personal connection to it, no personal honor to be salvaged at all.

So cognitive dissonance sets in, and these Germans/French/South Koreans/US Leftists refuse to believe that any stranger could be higher on the moral or spiritual food chain than themselves, so they must rationalize reasons for why the top dog isn't all that and should be taken down a couple of notches. Up is down, black is white, and George Bush is the real Hitler and Castro/Saddam/Kim are the real saints. It passes off the guilt for being indebted to others who sacrificed their lives and livelihoods to protect their nation, and it makes them feel superior to those benefactors as well by inverting the values. Human nature sucks.


17 posted on 05/29/2005 3:53:56 PM PDT by 0siris
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To: Righty_McRight

I think you have it. The problems Germany had in assimilating the GDR will look like child's play compared to what South Korea will have to deal with.


18 posted on 05/29/2005 3:54:03 PM PDT by kms61
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I'd be interested in your thoughts...


19 posted on 05/29/2005 3:55:52 PM PDT by MizSterious (First, the journalists, THEN the lawyers.)
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To: CHARLITE

The same reason US students protest, ANSWER, etc. They all have the same roots and Foundations supporting them. There truly IS a vast leftwing conspiracy. They're part of 'The Justice Prevention Team'.


20 posted on 05/29/2005 4:00:08 PM PDT by monkeywrench (http://ciudadano.presidencia.gob.mx/peticion/peticion.htm -Tell Vicente)
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To: Red Sea Swimmer

I really can't wait for a McSaintBernard Burger. :)

21 posted on 05/29/2005 4:01:20 PM PDT by Random Nonsense
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To: 0siris

Very interesting.


22 posted on 05/29/2005 4:06:10 PM PDT by Actually_in_Tokyo
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To: CHARLITE

Like students in the United States, students here in Korea imbibe socialist, anti-American propaganda from an early age. It was these callow, inexperienced, know-it-all, pampered, protected, under 25s that elected this disaster of a President Roh Moo-Hyun, much to the horror of their elders.

Since his election Roh Moo-hyun has made policy mistake heaped on policy disaster, to the point now where is popularity has plummeted to about 22%.

Still, he refuses to correct his course, as Socialists are always reluctant to do. As is said, "Don't adjust your dial, reality is at fault."

But he has been summoned to Washington, where as his reward for as 48 hour trip; hours on end cooped up in an airplane, Roh will get 30 minutes with President Bush. Adjusted for translation time, he will get 15 minutes of actual conversation. Just long enough for President Bush to explain to him the facts of his immediate future political life.

I suspect it is not for nothing that F-117s are being deployed here.

It is my personal opinion that the the whatever will hit the fan this summer.


23 posted on 05/29/2005 4:06:25 PM PDT by John Valentine (Whoop dee doo)
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To: Random Nonsense

Great photo.

Nothing better than a good burger, although I think I would have to fast for a week to prepare myslef for that feast. I may need to invest in a crash helmet aswell.

P.S. That guy looks like he is having a lot of fun. I wonder how long the burger took to cook ?


24 posted on 05/29/2005 4:14:00 PM PDT by Red Sea Swimmer (Tisha5765Bav)
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To: Polybius

Simply BRILLIANT! Now, I have to read a some more of Polybus' contribiutions to our common civilization.

In a way, Polybus has explained why children of priviledge, such as Senators Kerry, Dodd, Kennedy and Clinton are working so hard to overthrow American values.

I certainly hope someone learns how to convert self-pride into patriotism -- before it is too late.


25 posted on 05/29/2005 4:26:36 PM PDT by pfony1
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To: kms61
"I think you have it. The problems Germany had in assimilating the GDR will look like child's play compared to what South Korea will have to deal with."

The South, by itself, cannot assimilate the north. Regardless, many , many will die.

26 posted on 05/29/2005 4:34:13 PM PDT by blam
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To: CHARLITE
The North Koreans broke their word, but some foreign policy experts argue that a similar agreement is the best we can get from the six-party North Korea talks and should be accepted as at least a way of buying time.

Buying Time? For what? This is probably the same crowd that said we'd have to "live with" the Soviet Union as they were too powerful to destroy and snickered at Reagan's "evil empire" epithet. On a lesser scale, their like-minded brethren were telling New Yorkers they have to "live with" the Squegee men as there were too many. These liberals always have an excuse as to why we should not face the bad guys down. Craven cowards, one and all.

The "before the end of 2005" prediction might be too optimistic, but we'll never know unless we try. So many of these omnipotent regimes, as pointed out, crack at the most unexpected moments. This is what will probably play out, and in a perverse sense, I suspect the South Koreans don't want that to happen because of the lessening of their standard of living the reunification will entail. No doubt they will rediscover the U.S. is not so bad at all and demand aid and assistance in that process.

27 posted on 05/29/2005 4:41:16 PM PDT by Oatka
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To: CHARLITE

I don't think the students themselves know why they are rioting against the US. On the surface, it's misguided nationalism.


28 posted on 05/29/2005 4:44:09 PM PDT by citizencon
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To: CHARLITE

Nationalism blinds S Korean youths. But when the North collapses and the conscript S Korean army moves north to restablish order and liberate prisoners in the concentration camps, then they will know that the US was right. I think their anger will turn against the Chinese for allowing the murderous regime to last so long for their own strategic interests at the cost of the lives of the Koreans in the north. What the Chinese did to the NK people is no different then what the Imperial Japanese did to the Koreans - murder them. China will reap what she sowed.


29 posted on 05/29/2005 4:46:43 PM PDT by Fee (Great powers never let minor allies dictate who, where and when they must fight.)
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To: Righty_McRight
"I assume it will rejoin south korea after the fall, and bankrupt the government."

The author correctly surmises that the fall and presumed "reunification" with the south, will cause a far worse economic drain on the new, unified Korea, than the crippled economy of E. Germany caused when the Berlin Wall fell.

....and BTW, once American troops are gone, and the now-rioting S. Korean students are faced with raw reality, who will be the target(s) of their new rioting then?

America?.......again?.........for not having stuck around to clean things up after "America" caused the wretched refuse yearning to be free in N. Korea to come stumbling and staggering down into the prosperous south, looking for "a better life?"

...........and, oh.........I have to tell you how much I LOVE "Righty_McRight" !!! Key-yewt name!

Char

30 posted on 05/29/2005 5:35:00 PM PDT by CHARLITE (I'd like to see Hillary and Bill Clinton GET REAL JOBS for once!)
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To: Polybius
"They are following the cycle of "Anacyclosis" from slavery to freedom and back to slavery which the historian Polybius described over 2,000 years ago."

Your posted reply is magnificent; - truly outstanding. Thank you very much for such an erudite contribution to our attempts to comprehend the rampant anti-Americanism in a country all the way around the world, for which so much American blood has been sacrificed.

I really appreciate your historical reference. There really isn't anything new under the sun. Is there? It is all cyclical, it seems.

BTW, what part of the "cyclical" theory (or rhythm) does the current militant Islam signify? One could say that they are analagous to the nordic and slavic barbarians which invaded and finally defeated the Roman Empire, (as well as the Iberian peninsula) but in my mind, they are worse.

Your thoughts?

Thanks again.

Char

31 posted on 05/29/2005 5:42:25 PM PDT by CHARLITE (I'd like to see Hillary and Bill Clinton GET REAL JOBS for once!)
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To: CHARLITE
If someone could tell me why South Korean students are rioting against America, who has been saving their sorry rear ends for a half century, I would appreciate your comments on this outrageous ingratitude.


The same reason our own students rioted against us during Vietnam and are protesting so hard now. Socialism and liberalism and indoctrination by Universities.
32 posted on 05/29/2005 6:04:18 PM PDT by jec41 (Screaming Eagle)
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To: jec41
"The same reason our own students rioted against us during Vietnam and are protesting so hard now. Socialism and liberalism and indoctrination by Universities."

......which is why liberalism in universities should be confronted, challenged and eliminated, IMO. I support David Horowitz and Ann Coulter 100%, in their efforts to do exactly that.

Thanks for such a simple answer. You're right, of course.

Char :)

33 posted on 05/29/2005 6:08:49 PM PDT by CHARLITE (I'd like to see Hillary and Bill Clinton GET REAL JOBS for once!)
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To: Polybius

Great post, but by chance did Polybius crib Plato's Republic, Book VIII?

Plato lived about 200 years earlier than Polybius. His famous work was The Republic and was often quoted or adapted by other Greek writers.

I recall Plato's Republic as being the source of:

Democracy -> Anarchy -> Dictatorship -> Oligarchy -> Democracy

Here's some interesting posts on Polybius and Plato:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polybius
203 bc - 120 bc Greek historian famous for his book called The Histories, or The Rise of the Roman Empire.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plato
427 bc - 347 bc, immensely influential classical Greek philosopher, student of Socrates, teacher of Aristotle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_%28Plato%29
The Republic - Plato dialog

Here's an English text version of The Republic at gutenberg.org (just search for 'VIII' to read the section):
http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/etext98/repub11.txt

Hoppy


34 posted on 05/29/2005 6:31:32 PM PDT by Hop A Long Cassidy
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To: pfony1
Simply BRILLIANT! Now, I have to read a some more of Polybius' contribiutions to our common civilization.

I was impressed with him too, not only for his historical ducumentation but for his wisdom and insight. That is why I chose his name as my FR screename.

His discussion of the anacyclosis historical pattern lead him to a discussion of how that cycle had been broken (at least in the time of his writing and for another century) by the concept of the Balance of Power in the Constitution of the Roman Republic.

The Founding Fathers were familiar with his work ( his Histories were mentioned in The Federalist Papers No. 63 ) and there is therefore every reason to believe that his description of the system of checks and balances in the Roman Republic's Constitution influenced the creation of a system of checks and balances in the U.S. Constitution.

35 posted on 05/29/2005 6:53:22 PM PDT by Polybius
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To: Hop A Long Cassidy
Great post, but by chance did Polybius crib Plato's Republic, Book VIII? Plato lived about 200 years earlier than Polybius. His famous work was The Republic and was often quoted or adapted by other Greek writers. I recall Plato's Republic as being the source of: Democracy -> Anarchy -> Dictatorship -> Oligarchy -> Democracy

Plato wrote about the cycle as did Cicero after Polybius.

Polybius' great contribution was to suggest that the cycle could be broken by a system of checks and balances as found in the Roman Republic's Constitution. That, in turn, may very well have influenced the Founding Fathers to attempt to create a system of checks and balances in our own Constitution.

36 posted on 05/29/2005 7:03:03 PM PDT by Polybius
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To: CHARLITE

Two words: SKI PYONGYANG!

hahaha


37 posted on 05/29/2005 7:04:52 PM PDT by NHAntiMassRedRebel (Our only fault is that we're 40 minutes north of Boston.)
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To: CHARLITE

I believe South Koreans resent the U.S. because they need
and use our money.

Also, student leftism is rampant.

I was over there once.

We are the "Ugly Americans" IMHO.


38 posted on 05/29/2005 7:18:47 PM PDT by slowpipe (" I'll go to school if you want me to, Pa. But I won't take Symbolic Logic.")
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To: CHARLITE; Hop A Long Cassidy
BTW, what part of the "cyclical" theory (or rhythm) does the current militant Islam signify? One could say that they are analagous to the nordic and slavic barbarians which invaded and finally defeated the Roman Empire, (as well as the Iberian peninsula) but in my mind, they are worse. Your thoughts?

It must be remember that the anacyclosis cycle describes how a democratic society destroys itself.

Even the most noble and brave society can fall prey to an outside military power greater than its own.

In radical Islamic countries such as Iran, the radical mullahs would qualify as a theocratic oligarchy. Before them, came the Dictatorship of the Shah.

It must also be remembered that Polybius was describing relatively civilized Greek and Roman societies who had actually gotten to the "Democracy" stage.

In more primitive societies, the cycle of Anarchy -> Dictatorship -> Oligarchy -> Democracy would skip Democracy altogether and simply be Anarchy -> Dictatorship -> Oligarchy -> Anarchy -> Dictatorship -> Oligarchy.

39 posted on 05/29/2005 7:21:17 PM PDT by Polybius
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To: CHARLITE

We can send them all our illegal aliens to help rebuild their country and do the gardening.


40 posted on 05/29/2005 7:21:46 PM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: CHARLITE
It pays to take a look at the books George W. Bush hands out to his staffers.

But, but, but, ... I thought George Bush was just some dumb-as-dirt anti-intellectual cowboy who couldn't puzzle out the dialog in an Archie comic book if his life depended on it. The MSM told me that, so it must be true, right?

41 posted on 05/29/2005 7:26:24 PM PDT by CFC__VRWC ("Anytime a liberal squeals in outrage, an angel gets its wings!" - gidget7)
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To: CHARLITE

Besides all the other reasons given so far, I would add that Kim Jong Il probably has these "student" groups (and probably the SK media as well) thoroughly infiltrated with spies, saboteurs and agent provocateurs, spreading anti-US propoaganda for them to act upon.


42 posted on 05/29/2005 7:31:14 PM PDT by CFC__VRWC ("Anytime a liberal squeals in outrage, an angel gets its wings!" - gidget7)
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To: CFC__VRWC
"...student groups.......infiltrated with spies, saboteurs and agent provocateurs, spreading anti-US propoaganda for them to act upon."

I feel so STOOPIT! Of course, this could be the case. It is a common technique. It is surely happening here, and blatantly with LaMecha, to name just one group of anti-American agitators, on our California campuses.

Thanks for your comments. Very helpful.

Char

43 posted on 05/29/2005 8:49:36 PM PDT by CHARLITE (I'd like to see Hillary and Bill Clinton GET REAL JOBS for once!)
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