Posted on 05/07/2005 6:44:00 AM PDT by mathprof
It was déjà vu all over again when the government released the April employment report on Friday. The latest figures show that the economy added 274,000 jobs last month, some 100,000 more than had been expected, and that 93,000 more jobs were created in February and March than had originally been reported. The numbers are surprisingly upbeat and entirely welcome.
But we should remember that a year ago, in the spring of 2004, the story was much the same. Back then, after more than two years of relentlessly subpar job creation, there was a three-month surge in job gains. Then, as now, the figures unleashed hope - however tentative - that employment and wages would improve steadily, allowing job seekers and working Americans to share in an economic recovery that, until then, had generated strong corporate profits but weak hiring and income growth figures.
Last year, alas, such hopes were largely dashed. And since then, troubling economic data, showing more costly oil, slower economic growth and declining consumer confidence, have piled up. What are April's numbers really telling us?
With April's results in, the average job growth for the past year comes to 181,000 jobs a month. At the same point in the economic recovery in the early 1990's, an average of 307,000 jobs were being created each month. The upshot is that current job growth is decent - about what's needed to keep the unemployment rate from rising. But it's not enough to help the economy work off the damage that periods of recession and unemployment cause, like lowered standards of living and lost savings.
It's also not enough to give workers much leverage in bargaining for pay increases. When inflation numbers are reported later this month, it's highly likely that April will mark the 11th month in a row in which hourly wage gains fail to keep up with rising prices. In one bright spot, the time workers spent on the job ticked up in April by 12 minutes per week. More work will probably push average weekly earnings above inflation by a few tenths of a percentage point. Still, in previous recoveries, the number of hours worked was both higher and faster-growing that it is now.
If April's numbers are the start of a new upward trend, great. But it's too soon to tell. Policy makers must be especially mindful that the economy has been at this juncture before, and then failed to deliver on its promise.
It sounds like the editors at the NYT needs their sippy cups.
I swear if an unknowing person (read liberal) read this article they would think the unemployment rate was in double digits. I notice the author never mentions that the rate is 5.2%.
Fortunately, the jobs boom hasn't affected the NY Times. They are needing to lay off people as their bird-cage liner sinks further into oblivion!
I guess it takes a whole year of good economic news to prove anything, but one bad month is a definite trend.
The Times will now go back to past editions of the papper and correct the predictions upwards.
I am soo glad the jobs report pissed in their Wheaties :)
Bush didn't even have a net job loss during his first term. Barely made it but he did.
So at this point he is well over. With a rate of 5.2% and low interest and low inflation. Good growth and productivity as well. I guess that explains the article.
I know. If Slick were still President, they would say we are in the best economy since our founding. Pathetic morons.
NYT: "The glass is half empty."
Down here in the Red Zone, jobs go begging for lack of qualified applicants. I visit several companies that can't find nondrugusing people to come to work every day.
The Slimes missed a perfect opportunity to credit the jobs jump on "disadvantaged minorities" joining the military. Must not have vetted this editorial with the DNC.
Sign of the times:
"It was déjà vu all over again when the government released the April employment report on Friday. The latest figures show that the economy added 274,000 jobs last month, some 100,000 more than had been expected, and that 93,000 more jobs were created in February and March than had originally been reported. The numbers are surprisingly upbeat and entirely welcome.
But"
BUT!!! My teacher always told me when a person gives you a compliment then the first words after are "BUT", it negates the entire compliment.
In depressed NE Ohio I'm seeing help wanted signs in front of manufacturing and fabrication businesses for the first time in twenty years. Small cap/Light industry is growing faster than the population/labor pool. Steel mills in Cleveland that went idle in the nineties are making steel.
The houseplants at the Slimes clearly need to get out more and visit America, find out what's going on.
What job categories?
Now, that is really interesting . . . and good news.
Skilled industrial jobs. Welders, machinists. One company needs general help in manufacturing operations, not really skilled but they can't find people willing to come to work everyday.
The Government could give every household in the country a Lexus, yet the NYTimes would still complain that it didn't come with gasoline and insurance.
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