Posted on 04/24/2005 6:53:29 PM PDT by Joe Bonforte
BAGHDAD, April 23 -- Violence is escalating sharply in Iraq after a period of relative calm that followed the January elections. Bombings, ambushes and kidnappings targeting Iraqis and foreigners, both troops and civilians, have surged this month while the new Iraqi government is caught up in power struggles over cabinet positions.
{snip}
"Definitely, violence is getting worse," said a U.S. official in Baghdad, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "My strong sense is that a lot of the political momentum that was generated out of the successful election, which was sort of like a punch in the gut to the insurgents, has worn off." The political stalemate "has given the insurgents new hope," the official added, repeating a message Americans say they are increasingly giving Iraqi leaders.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
I expect to read some extract from the Washington Post in twenty years (probable circulation: a couple of thousand politicians and aids) about how the twenty-year-old democracy in Iraq is "suffering strains". I can almost see the quotes: "The insurgents, many of whom became militants after the Iraq invasion and occupation twenty years ago, are upset that American videos and music are sold in the streets of Baghdad. 'We must kill the infidel importers', said one, 'so that we can restore our Islamic purity...;"
I think this "leak" is part of a pressure campaign to get the Iraqi government moving.
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What insurgents? They are terrorist.
The Sunnis know they screwed up by boycotting the elections and are now politically beggars. They are motivated by revenge, religious hatred for Shiites, and ethnic hatred for the more ethnically Persian Shiites.
The rebellion has become a civil war.
The Kurds suffer very few attacks because they have a very effective intel network, political autonomy, and a very lethal army.
The Sunni rebels also get lots of support from renegade Kurds who dislike the Shiites just as much. The fight will evolve into massed attacks on soft outlying towns in mixed Sunni/Shiite areas. The Sunnis and Shiites both want ethnically more pure towns and they will use terror to force relocation ala the Balkans.
The central government will be years before it can gain a broader control over the countryside S and SW of Baghdad.
Our role will be more of a garrisoned force going on raids and rescuing Iraqi military when needed. Our presence is becoming politically more irrelevant in this internal power struggle.
I think the story is close to the mark and we will see much more like it.
I am sure the Washington Post and that "anonymous" official hope we will never read articles such as the following.
(TFF Press Release)
MOSUL, IRAQ (April 22, 2005) – Iraqi Security Forces and Multi-National Forces from 1st Brigade, 25th Infantry Division (Stryker Brigade Combat Team) discovered two massive weapons caches during operations in northern Iraq Thursday.
Read the Entire Entry...»
Troops from 107th Battalion, 22nd Brigade Iraqi Army working alongside Soldiers from 2nd Battalion, 8th Field Artillery Regiment discovered a massive weapons cache while conducting a raid in Al Hatr, southwest of Qayyarah. The Security Forces were tipped off by an Iraqi citizen who reported the cache to local Iraqi Police. The cache included approximately 2.5 million anti-aircraft rounds, 850 mortar rounds, 144 RPG rounds, 150 rockets, 225 pounds of TNT, 127 anti-tank mines, 75 anti-personnel mines, 300 assorted artillery, rocket and mortar initiators, 200 hand grenades, and an anti-aircraft weapon. One individual was detained in connection with the cache. Suspect is in custody with no ISF or MNF injuries reported. The weapons and munitions were confiscated for future destruction.
Soldiers from 1st Battalion, 5th Infantry Regiment discovered a massive weapons cache during a cordon and search operation southeast of Mosul. The cache included 880 anti-tank detonators, 307 anti-tank mines, 95 artillery rounds, 1,200 grenades, 30 RPG rounds, 700 grenade fuses, 800 rounds of large caliber ammunition, and 3,000 rounds of small arms ammunition. The weapons and munitions were confiscated for future destruction.
These two major weapons cache seizures contribute significantly to the improving security situation in northern Iraq. ISF and MNF along with Iraqi citizens continue to aggressively pursue terrorists and their weapons in pursuit of a free and democratic Iraq. These operations are indicative of the combined efforts of the Iraqi community working with their Security Forces.
In a separate operation Soldiers from the 2nd Squadron, 14th Cavalry Regiment detained one individual suspected of terrorist activities during a cordon and search operation in Tal Afar Thursday. The suspect is in custody with no MNF injuries reported.
« Ok, I'm done!
Posted by: safetypro | Link to this Entry | Comments (1) | Category: 1/25 Brigade News
Perhaps, but I rather doubt it. I've heard an endless parade of negative predictions since 2002 concerning Iraq. Few of them have proven correct.
We certainly don't have a long enough timeline to make predictions such as yours. This latest spasm could easily be the Cheynes-Stokes phase of the insurgency. We won't know for a while. But I'd bet on a long-term gradual reduction in deaths from the insurgency, rather than an increase.
Good report. I had not checked CENTCOM in past couple days. As long as there are large caches of weapons still hiden, we must expect continued car bomb blasts, road side IED's etc..
I had predicted a few months back that there are probably still around a quarter of a million tons of various mixes ordanance still around. That being based on CIA estimates and others a year back plus, and the 1/2m or so US Army had reported last fall that has been destroyed so far. As usual we only see one or two examples of Iraqi Army/Police leaving their posts. We never see any reports of the perhaps 50,000 plus that are now fully engaging the their enemy. And their enemy is not US troops. The problems are real. But I cannot accept the view that there is a civil war breaking out in Iraq. If it where so, why don't we see literally millions of Iraqi's going ballistic, taking up arms against their apposing tribes etc.. It just is not an honest picture being painted by the L/MSM. The problems are always found to be in less then two dozen cities/towns country wide. Hope people notice this observance.
"We certainly don't have a long enough timeline to make predictions such as yours. This latest spasm could easily be the Cheynes-Stokes phase of the insurgency. We won't know for a while. But I'd bet on a long-term gradual reduction in deaths from the insurgency, rather than an increase."
I back your analysis based on what my observations have been over since the start of OIF I. I strongly sense at this point that there are not a lot of foreign insurgents getting into Iraq due to our much improved border patrol techniques.
As those foreign rug heads are blown up, shoot, captured, their numbers are going to diminish. Once the government does finalize who will be in what post through end of year and formulates their new constitution hopefully by early fall, they will be yet another step up on the wrung toward their next year federal election which will include the whole country. Besides, how long did it take the colonies in America to truly form to be on independent federal state?
I think we ask to much to soon from Iraq. They are doing better in my opinion then I previously imagined. And the damn L/MSM continue to fail to ever bring out articles on how many new Iraqi Army battallions are actually making the grade as they go into advance training with our Army and Marines. They are gaining ground. Their Intel and by default ours, is growing in effectiveness on a daily basis. Heaven only knows how much has been prevented from happening that we never read about.
Aren't most Iraqi SHiites ethnically Arab? Or are you saying that the anti-Persian foreigner bigotry of the Sunni Arabs was basically transferred to the local Shiite Iraqi Arabs?
Why are we pussyfooting around about obvious slam jobs on the progress of our affairs in the Middle East?
The slimes that refer to "Bush's War' and the "Billions Wasted on Iraq" and "Vigilantes" on our border are either dupes or agents of Islamo-Facist Terrorism using the primary weapon that they have at their command: our freedoms of speech to promote confusion and demoralization of the public.
It's silly to comment on and treat as if it has any merit whatsoever.
Arab/Sunni tribesmen generally distrust and dislike Iraqi/Persian Shiites. They see them as ignorant, lower class, powerless "hicks", not worthy of governmental authority.
This is a class war of the Shiite "have nots" now being in power by weight of number, and the Sunni "haves" not feeling they deserve it. The Kurds and Turkomens are sitting back, fueling both sides without taking sides, knowing that any civil war brings them more opportunity for independence.
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