Posted on 04/12/2005 9:00:58 PM PDT by CHARLITE
Will the 21st century be another "American Century" or will it be the first "Asian Century"? A peaceful - for now - struggle has been joined.
For the past few weeks Americans have been focused on news from the Vatican. And for the past few years the bulk of "foreign news" has concerned the Middle East. But in the Far East three huge fuses are burning.
First, the prime minister of China, Wen Jiabao, traveled to India and declared that the two countries would be the "two pagodas" of economic might in the coming hundred years - the "Asian Century," Wen predicted.
The likely next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, has been a vocal proponent of "regime change." So what might the North Koreans do in response? Japan's Kyodo news service says a top North Korean official declared that his country could strike America not only directly, but also indirectly: "The United States should consider the danger that we could transfer nuclear weapons to terrorists."
So what can the United States do against such threats? Not much, it seems. The only country with influence on North Korea seems to be China, and yet the Chinese say that they can't help - even as Beijing protects North Korea against American military pre-emption.
Thus the three wheels: First, China gets closer to India, as the two nations seek a New Asian Order. Second, China grows more hostile to the United States and Japan. Third, China bolsters nuke-crazy North Korea.
Those are three fuses burning across the Pacific, whether we like it or not - whether we know it or not.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...
And.....let's do something about it.
WE'RE DOOMED.
Hey, I got an idea. Let's ignore deeper and older economic, political and military ties between the U.S. and China and the U.S. and India, as well as the similar rhetoric that passes between them all.
But as soon as India and China form anything similar and pass similar rhetoric between each other, let's all freak out and stuff.
"And since, if present trends continue, both India and China might have economies larger than ours in the 21st century, there's plenty of reason to pay attention to this nascent techno-military alliance."
Yes, and it "present trends continue" I'll be alive in 400 years. If, on the other hand, one looks more realistically at likely average growth rates for India, China and the U.S. over the next 50 to 95 years, well, you don't come up with the same figures.
At least this yahoo gave an email address. How I love writing these guys.
I've been losing more and more respect for Pinkerton's opinion pieces lately. He mouths the MSM intellectual's typical views about China's actions, but completely misses the most important thing about the Asian situation. That is, the anticipated ascension of a long dormant Japanese military.
He seems to be caught up in the same swirl as many western journalists (I suppose that's the best name for him now, despite his past) caught in China. Hyperbole, doom-and-gloom, dire warnings, an inability to see the forest for the carefully constructed trees, and a strange belief that today's "trends" can be assumed to be tomorrow's normalcy. (They would never assume the same of the U.S. economically, of course.)
And now he has lumped India alongside China as a potentially larger economy. It's just mind-boggling how these memes take root and flourish.
....and if we can persuade that ascending Japanese military to "take care of business" with the little midget up there in N. Korea, that would work out just fine for us.
Char :)
I've got a great idea. Genius even.
Let's work our butts off to convert the Middle East dictatorships into democracies and then do what we can to see that the same liberty and freedom spreads to every other nook and cranny of the world.
It won't be easy and there will be naysayers, but it will happen.
[it's none of our business what kind of governments the people of other countries maintain.]
Baloney.
If the entire Middle east is a conglomeration of theocratic dictatorships then that has a HUGELY negative effect on the well being and security of the rest of the world.
If even a few key countries within this region can be converted into democracies (as is now happening) then that benefits everyone who lives in that region and makes it more likely that other countries will follow their example and join the democratic movement.
Learn how to use paragraphs to your advantage.
You can't judge China per capita. You have to judge it in total. They now have the six largest economy in the world, having zoomed by Italy. They are the second (or third) largest buyer of U.S. debt, up there with England and Japan. And, the amount of stuff they export to the U.S. is an amount larger than many nation's economies.
2. Our borders are open, allowing enemies and leeches to take advantage of our political correctness and social safety net.
3. Our dollar value has declined more than 1/3 over the last 5 years.
4. GM's stock has fallen so much, I hear it is considered a junk bond. (Michael Savage show, Tuesday) I even hear rumors of Toyota wanting to buy GM!!!
5. Our politicians are corrupt, and our judges are out of control. There is no more true representation in our sytem of government.
6. India is taking our jobs. They have better foundations in real education, (don't worry, we still lead the world in sex education, dead white male bashing and tolerance) and speak better English than most Americans under 40.
7. China is stealing our technology, putting their stamp on it, and getting rich off of our hard work and innovation to fund their growing war machine. The average American is happy to buy this crap, and companies like Wal Mart are more than happy to sell it to us.
8. Liberalism is spreading like a disease, and infecting the body politic of this country like a cancer. A simple discussion of this condition, let alone removal of this cancer at some point will end up killing the patient, and I fear we are reaching the terminal stage soon, if not already.
Yes, it will be the Asian century. The real question is: How will we deal with it?
I say nay, nay, nay.
> India is taking our jobs.
And our motels. I find it incredible just about any motel in America you walk into you will meet an Indian behind the counter. A coincidence? I doubt it.
Then there is China - Wall to wall Wallmart.
Don't forget Dunkin Donuts!!! I go in to a nearby DD, and ask for a extra large black coffee.
Their response is "Cream and Sugar?" I say, "No, just black." I get a large with cream and sugar.
I give it back, and ask (again) for an EXTRA large with nothing.
They ask me "Something Else?" And I thought to myself, "Yeah, you guys ARE something else! Just try getting the first order right, and we can talk about 'something else' after that, OK?"
I pay for my extra large black coffee, get in my car, drive off, and after the first sip, realize they put sugar in my coffee. I can't win. They can't understand English. The ones that can are taking our jobs back in Bangalore.
So I learn their language. It is the Gujrati dialect. I picked it up, and use it at the two Dunkin Donuts stores that actually have great people who actually listen to you because they understand english.
So one day, I go to a totally new, "foreign" Dunkin Donuts, (it is, no lie, one of 4 in a 3 square mile period!) tell them what I want, in their language, and they STILL screw it up!!!
>recent economic gains are two of the per capita poorest >countries in the world.
Yes but thats today. They are both on a high growth path and will remain that way for generations to come. They are investing large amounts in education and infrastructure , the lack of which kept them poor.
"They both have a long history of belligerence towards each other."
Same was said about japan and the US once upon a time.
"Meanwhile, the US hums along at +/- 4% GDP growth per year, easily outstripping any economy in the world."
Actually thats only because of massive fiscal deficit coupled with record low interest rates which have resulted in currency depreciation. So actually the purchasing power of the avg american has gone down and not up.
"Asian century? Don't think so. At best they both could possibly pull themselves out of dire poverty and develop a respectable middle class. At best."
I dont think you realize that china is TODAY the biggest cell phone market on the planet. These people already are a middle class and they are working towards getting even better. India started embracing capitalism 15years after china and so will take more time to catch up but it has other advantages such as an english language education system. Even if we concede that these folks will only be middle class that still means with 4 times the population of the US their GDP will be larger than the US.
Also the figures you quote are based on nominal estimates and not PPP figures. A dentist in India may make a quarter of what his counterpart in the US makes but that does not make his service any less valuable. US $ will depreciate V/s Asian currencies in the future and thus this disparity will be resolved. And so the numbers will look more like PPP numbers. Then the gap between the US and these countries will not be so big.
But I dont understand why this narrowing of the economic gap is seen as a threat. Shouldnt it be seen in a positive light where poverty is eliminated and also prosperity is spread more evenly around the world and not just a preserve of the West? At least in Indias case we have a open society similar to the western world and shares the same values.
Regardless of whether they are Indian nationals or American, as long as they are legally resident in the US they dont owe anyone an explanation for what they do. At least they are not asking the govt for money.
They are working to make a living. If thats not the american way, I dont know what is.
Now if they cannot run their business successfully for whatever reason they will shut down. And if you dont like the service as their customer .. dont go there again.
It is true that a large number of motels in America are owned and operated by people of Indian descent. Partly because the community has had some tradition of running these establishments and so immigrants follow role models of entreprenuers who have succeeded in that business before them.
An umbrella organization is http://www.aahoa.com/ which represents a large part of the hospitality industry.
I was very pleased to read your posting about China and India. I was finally able to read a sharp-witted, cogent, and concise analysis of the China/India question by someone who (like me) obviously has a firm grasp of the dynamics of the situtation. And is willing to put the thing in stark terms that any intelligent person is sure to understand. Your assessment is quite the counterpoint to all of the China-India-superpowers-soon-to-overtake-the-US blather we've been seeing lately. Good-O!
Gee, I wonder if our impending demise might just might be due to this ongoing obsession with MJ, homosexual unions, illegal labor, bilingual education, Robt. Blake, gays in the military, radical feminism, etc. Wonder if Chinese leaders ever fret about all these types of nonsensical issues that draw so much energy and attention away from moving this country in a positive direction.
It's easy to see that we now have nothing more than "managed" news coming from all three major networks.....in fact some days you could swear they're all reading from the same script and the vast majority of it is "infotainment". Obviously, the agenda is to continue to place a spotlight on matters of trivial importance to provide a nice distraction to the masses so they don't ever get around to figuring out their country is being stolen right out from under them.
We should definitely alert Jeff Head. It seems Pinkerton has stolen his plot!
"OUR industries and jobs have been transported "
How did they become american industries? Does any country have a monopoly over an industry? Does America have some divine right to produce a product or a service?
The same forces of capitalism that made america such a successful country are now working to move income and wealth from places of plenty to places of scarcity. And its not the jobs have just moved out from the US. This is a world wide phenomenon. I really hate how the media turns this into an "american" problem which its not. And remember the same India where software jobs have moved is buying boeing aircraft and those aircraft are not created in India. You need to see how many american branded products are available there. That same software engineer goes and buys a ford car or a levis jean or a ray ban sun glasses... and I dont say all of those are made in America but thats how free trade works.. right?
The US has really enjoyed enormous and an unrealistic streak of properity for a long time without facing any competition but nothing lasts forever.
But that also does not mean that jobs that have moved out will forever stay there or that new jobs will not be created to replace old ones. New jobs are created every minute in the US.
Once the revaluation of the US$ is complete some of the outsourced jobs may come back but eventually market forces will determine which jobs are done where.
"small group of software engineers, lawyers, doctors, and financial analysts on one side and millions of low paid Walmart workers on the other"
The fact is that in any developed country manufacturing sector does not employ a lot of people.. rather the Service sector does. Also because manufacturing has become so productive that it wont employ a lot of people. The fact remains that the service industries have more value addition and are highly paid. The key to sustaining highly paid jobs in ANY country is the intellectual property industries because thats where the most opportunity for value addition lies. So if America or any country wants to sustain high standards of living then the way to do that is not to chase jobs of yesterday but jobs of tomorrow. I still think the middle class can be sustained inspite of jobs moving abroad.
"China is not just producing widgets. They are producing WEAPONS systems and American companies are HELPING them"
Well they could say the same thing about the US. American companies are making money in china and eventually that money helps the US produce more weapons. Fact is that all the countries are trading partners and they will develop weapons.. its not anyones fault. China is to my mind not really a threat to anyone simply coz there is going to be too much stability in the world due to the US and India ofcourse and so the chinese threat is too exaggerated. US would do well to improve relations with India.
"the cardinal sin in america for the past couple of decades has been that of making anyone "uncomfortable" or being "insensitive". that pretty much eliminates the drive to investigate anything. "
Very well put! I agree completely. The single most dysfunctional institution in the US is television. Its almost as if it is sinister. The way news is "managed" and important issues are not discussed at all in favor of trivia. This also results in creating an intellectually isolated society out of touch with the real world. This is actually a far bigger threat to the US than the china's, Irans of the world. I strongly believe that the US as a country has no external threat. The biggest threats to the US are all its own creation. The dysfunctional (hijacked?) media & of course american politicians are the biggest threat to the future of the US..
Regarding "3 Signs of Impending Asian Century"More and more people are seeing the handwriting on the wall IMHO.
Mr. Pinkerton,
I agree whole heartedly with your assessment of China, India, N. Korea and the fuses burning over there.
I have written extensively about it as a warning, both fictionally:
The Dragon's Fury Series
http://www.dragonsfuryseries.com
Which is a five part series of novels about precisely the scenario you invision.
and factually in:
The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon
If you get a chance, please review those sites. I would be happy to send you an entire copy of the book series for your review if you were so inclined.
Sincerely,
Jeff Head
And how long ago did you begin the series, three maybe four years ago?
"instead of expressing concern for America and American citizens, and their welfare and well-being it expresses pleasure over the well being of other nations and other peoples"
Nothing bizarre about this. Wellbeing of other countries does not mean decline of the US. This is not a zero sum game. Like the example I gave. Same countries where jobs are outsourced are places where more american products are bought.
"what you are doing is consigning America to the dust heap of history by saying that it is acceptable that there be no middle class in America."
I never said that. The middle class is not going anywhere. New jobs are created every minute and will employ americans quite nicely. I have faith in the US economy.
"DON"T CARE ABOUT US EITHER"
I am not sure about that. In fact in this day and age the world economy is so interlinked that everyone should care about each other. Pain felt in one part of the world could rapidly affect other parts for e.g the Asian currency crisis of 1998 was one such event. I think asian countries know only too well how much they depend on the US economy.
"allowing so many products and products of a vital nature to be made abroad, even in countries that are ideologically, sworn enemies of the United States, i.e., CHINA. "
Capitalism ensures that the mutual dependancy between countries will result in peace. The chinese may make noise about being antagonistic but they depend more on the US economy than anyone else. In other words there is very little they could do to hurt US interests. I dont believe US is SOLD OUT as you put it.
"it is time to look at these trade deficits and look where these jobs have gone"
The cause of the trade deficit is indeed worth examination. The American propensity to consume is very high compared to other countries. The avg consumer saves almost nothing despite the fact that the percapita income of americans is one of the HIGHEST in the world. Due to this consumption is too high as a proportion of income and results in huge imports. Whereas in other countries people tend to save something and have a lower propensity to consume and dont get so indebted. This is the main reason why the trade deficit exists. So again its not due to external forces but just bad habit of the consumer encouraged by easy availability of credit which leads to big indebtedness. The consumer needs to change their habitual indebtedness and go back to good old values of thrift & saving a buck or 2 and the trade deficits will be taken care of.
One thing, both India and China have HUGE populations. This is both good and bad. Imagine if the countries had to pay welfare and medicaid to the poor in these countries?
Spring 2001.
All you really have to do is look at the way people live in the US and in China. Talk about PPP, does that mean that your average Chinese peasant (#2 PPP behind the US by some forms of measurement) can go down to the local bank and float a loan for a new American, Japanese, European or South Korean made car? No. He can't even afford a Chinese made car. Per capita income is not high enough for that.
Average Chinese peasant have a cell phone? Maybe. A lot cheaper than a car. Is the average Chinese peasant able to float a loan for a nice little power boat for the fambly? No. Not a big enough mass market for luxury goods in China.
China, with a population of 1 billion, has blown past Italy (pop. what? 50 million?) to become the sixth largest economy in the world. So what does that get the average Wang? He's still working 14 hours a day in the booming agricultural industry, just like 50% of his countrymen. Those who aren't permanently out of work and transient that is.
Both China and India have a loooong way to go to overcome their built-in handicaps. And there is no assurance that their recent economic performance will continue for 'generations to come'. It's actually pretty doubtful.
Asian century? I still don't think so.
Think "Saturation" too.
1. US - 10.9 trillion
6. Italy - 1.47 trillion
7. China - 1.41 trillion
12. India - 0.60 trillion
US leads by at least 10 to 1. Even the Chinese economists don't think they're going to catch up this century.
Rome wasnt built in a day.. neither was america. These same arguments were made by europeans about the US once upon a time. You are right that the avg peasant in china cannot afford much but we are talking about the future. The enormous economic growth taking place there is what is growing the car market by leaps and bounds. Just look at how fast the car market is growing there. Its just a matter of time when even peasants will be able to afford a middle class lifestyle. But by then the chinese economy will be the largest in the world.
They may have a long way to go before all of their billion citizens enjoy a decent quality of lifebut even if a 1/3 do so in the next decade.. that makes them on par with the US.
These figures dont explain reality because they are based on severely depressed currencies of Asia. The currency revaluation going on right now where the US$ is falling will continue and will increase the purchasing power of Asian countries enormously. Thus ppp model is a better indicator.
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