Posted on 03/07/2005 2:16:06 AM PST by bd476
Ping.
Amazing! Here's my prescient foresight: Major earthquakes will take place sometime during the next decade in California and Japan. Mark my words!
Good. And we promise to remember you when one happens. :)
That was kind of my take on it as well. 20/20 hindsight and taking credit for something that happened - just not exactly the way this cat predicted it would.
I mean, if I predict that we will send probes to explore the planet Mercury, am I wrong when we send probes to explore the planet Mars? That's essentially what Sieh is claiming.
You mean ... it's NOT Bush's Tsunami Machine, patented by Haliburto .... ?!?!!??!
You mean ... it's NOT Bush's Tsunami Machine, patented by Haliburto .... ?!?!!??!
I mean, if I predict that we will send probes to explore the planet Mercury, am I wrong when we send probes to explore the planet Mars? That's essentially what Sieh is claiming."
Not exactly.
From the article above, Professor Sieh
"The Caltech geology professor had studied the history of giant earthquakes just south of the epicenter for about a decade and knew full well the damage such a major quake in that part of the world could inflict..."
and
"...He had tried to get the word out that such an event was imminent. Now that hundreds of thousands have died, people are listening..."
and
"...By last summer, Sieh's concern that a major earthquake would hit off the coast of Sumatra had reached a level that prompted him to use some of his research funds to produce and distribute pamphlets and posters on the islands describing the threat along the subduction zone..."
and
"...No one knew exactly when or where the earthquake would strike. But Sieh knew the boundary was ripe for a major slip. As it turned out, he was focused on an area a bit too far south..."
and
"...Sieh and his team had determined by slicing into corals, and reading the natural record of water level they preserve, that giant earthquakes along the zone to the south recur about once every 200 years. The last major earthquake to hit offshore of central Sumatra occurred in 1833, was about magnitude 8.7 and produced large tsunamis..."
and
"...Even one of the friends he had made in the course of field work in Sumatra, Cristina Fowler, who runs a surf charter and hotel there, told the geologist when he returned after the new year, "You warned us. I didn't listen to you. I'm just lucky I didn't die.'
And she wanted another of his posters to put up in her hotel...."
and
"...Since 2002, Sieh and his colleagues have installed an array of GPS stations to track the sinking of the islands. Following their most recent trip to Sumatra in January, they now have 18 stations stretching to the northern tip of Aceh. They are watching the gradual healing process of the islands in the north and the behavior of the island to the south.
and
"...Now, Sieh is trying to inform villagers about what to do when they feel major shaking, urging them to clear paths to high ground and working with government officials and city planners to build adequate bridges and to consider relocating villages in safer locations..."
and
"...'I have no doubt that within the next century we'll have million-person losses,' caused by natural disasters in the developing world, Sieh said. "There will be hundreds of thousands more deaths in the next 10 to 15 years because of earthquakes alone...' "
and he really 'saw' the 'big bang' too....?
....very,.....'Sieh'
Yes! You can just sit here an be happy! Ignore the science! Ignore the prophets! Only the folks on bd476's ping list need to be prepared. ;-)
PING Strategerist
I realize you don't believe such could have happened . . . perhaps this article can adjust your criteria somewhat.
Ninety percent of the people killed by the tidal waves could have survived if they knew to run when the sea receded. It's not high tech and doesn't even require an expensive early warning system.
Just a bit of knowledge and a clear path to high ground.
What a cheeky comment, imho.
He went out of his way to warn folks with pamphlets and was slighly off on location.
He was ahead on the timeline by several months
and still
all you can do is throw arrogant rocks.
Interesting.
AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN!
Sometimes I think naysayers have a serious chronic disease--
TERMINAL ARROGANCE.
Well said.
Well, it's not a big deal to me either way, but anyone who focused on the region could've easily predicted that "other parts within the section of this fault should be considered dangerous over the next few decades." Indonesia has been notable for seismic activity since a very long time ago and it's not much of a stretch to expect a major quake in this vicinity.
As for warning of tsunami, there was a very devastating earthquake-induced tsunami just a few years ago in Papua New Guinea (aside from just the general well-known risk of tsunami). The alarm over the potential for another disaster had been raised by that, but people still remained complacent.
Now, they're not.
Hindsight is always 20/20.
How convenient for him.
I'm sorry, but is it that surprising to expect that, over the course of a decade, that an area prone to tsunamis would have one?
IMHO, it took a catastrophe for people to accept a relative certainty.
In other words, it was bound to happen, but until it did, the average person will choose to live in denial.
Can you cite another remotely similar case where
a quality geologist doing quality research
went so far out of his way
to warn a population/geographic area
of a serious quake hazard being looming in the relatively short term
which was followed
within a relatively few months--literally a few months--
by a very devastating; shockingly devastating quake markedly uncommon in our times?
WHY IS IT SO HARD to give this guy his considerably above average due?
SHEESH!
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