the reason the Guard and Reserve numbers are down is because Troops are staying IN / REUP in stead of getting out and joining the Guard/Reserve... plus some of Guard/Reserve Troops are transferring to full time Active Duty.
Posted on 12/09/2004 9:17:03 AM PST by Fighting Irish
Retired Col. David H. Hackworth, still shooting from the sidelines at Soldiers for the Truth, says the recruiting numbers are far worse than anyone is hearing. Hack's talking to the recruiters first-hand and the problem, no surprise, is in all branches of the military -- Regular Army, Reserves and Guard.
Recruiting is at half of expectations. They've lowered standards for recruits and have resulted to throwing LAN parties to garner interest from potential recruits.
Hack says a draft is imminent, as there is no way to replace the estimated 50,000 KIA, WIA and non-battle casualties from Iraq that have been sent back to the States.
We'll soon have 150,000 U.S. troops stuck in the ever-expanding Iraqi quagmire, a number that will probably grow even larger before Iraq holds elections presently scheduled for the end of January '05.
...The job of finding fresh bodies to keep our units topped off falls mainly to the Army Recruiting Command. But the "making-quota" jazz put out by the Recruiting Command and the Pentagon to hype their billion-dollar recruiting effort, with its huge TV expenditure and big expansion of recruiters during the past year, is pure unadulterated spin. Not that this is anything new. The Command has a sorry reputation for using smoke and mirrors to cover up poor performance.
"Hack, here's a snapshot of how little of our 1st Quarter mission has been achieved," says an Army recruiter. "Look at it from a perspective of a business releasing quarterly earnings information. To keep unit manning levels up out in the field, especially in Iraq, there's no question our recruiting mission is in serious trouble."
"These are totals for the 41 USAREC (Recruiting Command) Battalions, so these stats represent the USAREC mission accomplishment:
Regular Army Volume (all RA contracts): Mission: 25,322 Achieved: 12,703 (50.17 percent)
Army Reserve Volume: Mission: 7,373 Achieved: 3,206 (43.48 percent)."
The Army National Guard is faring no better. A Guard retention NCO says: "The word is out on the streets of Washington, D.C. `Do not join the Guard.' I see these words echoing right across the U.S.A."
By the end of this recruiting year, the Regular Army, Reserves and Guard could fall short more than 50 percent of its projected requirement, or about 60,000 new soldiers. And according to many recruiters, quality recruits are giving way to mental midgets who have a hard time telling their left foot from their right.
Shades of our last years in Vietnam.
...Moms and dads are outraged about desperate Army recruiters on a relentless campaign to sign up their teenagers. High-school kids are actually running away from recruiters like they were George Romero's living dead.
"Recruiters have called my son a minimum of 20 times in the two years since he finished high school," a dad reports. "The phone calls usually come in clusters. I answered five calls in a two- or three-week span. Each time a recruiter calls, he receives the same polite, respectful response from me or my son ... no interest, and please take the name off the list. When asked why the name hasn't been removed, excuses are made. While recruiters are brief with me, when my son is on the phone, the sales tactics are clever, prolonged and very high-pressure."
...Unless a miracle happens and the new Iraqi security force decides to stop running and start fighting, we'll be in Iraq for a long time. Most likely with a draftee force.
I respect Hack for his service but the guy is off his rocker. LOL
We learned from Nam that draftees were not the answer and unless there is an all out WWIII there won't be another draft.
Semper Fi,
Kelly
MODs.....this came off a commie blog today that FR won't allow(The Daily Kos). I changed the URL for informational purposes only.
Stories like this need to be shown so the rest of the civilized world sees what the lefties are up to with their bassakwards thinking.
If I've ventured into no-no land then nuke it.....but I throw myself at the mercy of the court.
50,000 casualties from Iraq??
Come now, we have about 1000 KIA and about 250 dead from other causes in Iraq. The ratio of Wounded to KIA is about 9:1. Looks to me that the number is more like 10,000.
Alternative way of looking at the picture, 50,000 casualties would be a very substantial portion of the strength of the Army and the Marine Corps, the organizations which are taking the vast majority of the casualties. If they had lost 50,000 casualties, they would be rendered completely ineffective, given their other committments.
Hackworth is off his rocker.
Thats funny, they are looking for any excuse to get rid of us in flight school because the Navy has too many people. I'm afraid to even get a speeding ticket.
This whole article is hot steaming BS.
I'm an Army National Guard Recruiter, and this writer never asked me a thing. I sure as hell don't know where these numbers are coming from. Except fantasy.
"50,000 KIA, WIA"? Gee, that's sounds like Vietnam-era numbers. I've not seen ANY stats reflecting anywhere NEAR that level.
Nor is a single name mentioned. I question whether this is even a Hackworth article, and not some Leftist screed with Hackworth's name for dressing.
Hackworth may be off his rocker but give me your thoughts on this.
The Air Force and the Navy are detaching security forces to run with the Army and the Marines in Iraq.
The Military is not tapping Air Force and Navy people because there is an over abundance of Army and Marine personel.
To send untrained Air Force and Navy Military Police into a combat zone is pure BS from my perspective. These kids are not trained anything like their Army or Marine hosts.
Draftees may not be popular but when you are at war they are sometimes required.
If they are not required now then why are we sending untrained Air Force and Navy people in to supplement the Army and Marine mission work?
You can read it also on Hackworthless' site:
http://www.hackworth.com/
It probably is Hackworth. Hack has become, well, a hack recently. He seems to have become bitter for some reason, and has resorted to taking potshots at the war. My personal opinion is that the successes of GWI and GWII, particularly the actions of the soldiers which are no longer hidden in the shadows (the way his actions were) are making him jealous, both that he was never lionized the way these new soldiers are, and that his exploits are no longer the benchmark. IOW he is afraid of sinking into irrelevancy, forced to subsist on dry military history book sales. IMHO, it won't be much longer before SOF drops him as a columnist for someone younger and more in-touch with the current military.
Thanks Flashbunny......as always I'm late to the dance.
I agree that we should not be sending untrained personnel to Iraq.
I think we could, as we have already starting doing, send troops from Germany and Korea to Iraq.
And put the National Guard and Reserve units on OUR borders.
It wasn't and isn't a matter of "popularity" as far as draftees go, it's the mere fact that we had verrrrry bad luck with draftees in Nam and anyone who was there will tell you that we would be better off without them...
I'd take one Marine who enlisted over a whole company of draftees any day.
There is zero chance of a draft short of a cataclysmic event in this country, but volunteers would be lining up in that case anyway. It may mean paying our military personnel more for the security they afford this country. If a guy can make millions by dunking a ball through a hoop, why can't we provide more for the service person and his or her family? I will also mention that we need to get the hell out of Germany and some of the other EU countries that don't support us. A realignment of our resources is in order. If we must have a military presence in Europe, why not move our operations to East European countries that have supported us with words and by deeds?
Those are interesting observations:
As the new generation of warriors steps up, he'll fade away.
We can only hope.
NC National Guard recruiting missed its target of 1700 new enlistees by 300 this past year. But I am not too sympathetic, as I was disqualified from enlisting with the Guard just last week (based on a minor condition which I listed on my medical pre-screen....I didn't even make it to MEPS). And I currently exceed all the physical requirements to graduate boot camp, plus I run 3-4 miles daily. Go figure!
There is no way the military can continue performing unless it receives a massive injection of "citizen Soldiers.!
I was drafted and gladly served my country: however, I believe that every young American MAN should serve a minimum of 2 years of active duty with NO EXEMPTIONS!
I managed, over many years, to earn my doctorate (back when that truly meant something significant) and serve my country.
We can't leave it up to the professional soldiers to do the soldiering!
P.S.: Is Osama Barak bin Laden (New senator from ILLinois) of drafable age>
There IS no draft. There is no PLAN for a draft. There will be no CALL for a draft.
There is one chief reason for recruiting numbers being off (and they are, I'll admit), and that's Stop-Loss. The Guard's biggest source of enlistments have always been transition from Big Army to the Guard/Reserve. When Big Army put the Stop-Loss in place, it meant that guys who were going to trade over, stayed where they were. So, they didn't join the Guard, and the enlistment numbers dipped.
And as to USAF/USN security types? NO ONE goes in theater unless they're qualified to do their job. Period. No appeal. My unit is spinning up right now for a 4-month mobilization, and it's all for training and proficiency with the new toys we're getting. What better way to get these AF/Navy troops the experience and dirt-under-their-nails knowledge of their jobs, than to have them serve in theater? It spares line units from pulling these missions, and they're now available for direct-fire, in their turn.
But, this is not what The Left, and their useful idiot Hackworth, want you to hear. Doom-and-gloom is all we're expecting from The Left, and they seldom fail to deliver, don't they?
"It may mean paying our military personnel more"
hmmmm, in it for the money? mercenaries...
agree
Hackworth is a nut case. He has an ongoing love affair with himself.
And what did we learn from WWII?
Having said that, I don't believe there have been 50,000 casulaties in Iraq. The figure I've heard tossed around was closer to 15,000.
And yes, Hack is off his rocker.
Absolutely, and women too so long as there are laws forcing men to concede to women "equal rights."
But that's a side issue.
Once everyone is subject to being sent to fight for our country, then you would see the genral public get off their couches and pay attention to politics and what is going on in the world.
Because they wouldn't then be able to ignore that their lives or the lives of their loved ones could be put on the line.
And we'd have a better America.
Untrained?
These are USAF and USN security forces. Trained as "Security Forces". To be used as "Security Forces". They are trained to defend base perimeters. My understanding is that they are being sent to defend base perimeters.
Say what? Since when are "all branches of the military" limited to the "Regular Army, Reserves and Guard"? Isn't he forgetting the Marines, Navy, and Air Force? Or don't they count as being part of the "military"?
The other thing that's ridiculous about this article is that it didn't give the precise dates on which these numbers were gathered, but the first quarter of the fiscal year isn't even over yet. So of course you'd expect to be below your goals.
What a maroon.
"...is in all branches of the military -- Regular Army, Reserves and Guard."
Note to Hack: there are other "branches of the military" BESIDES the Army. As for a draft, forget it. Can't be done.
And even if someone thought of a way to make it a realistic policy, it takes years. It's not like someone throws a switch, and the Pentagon starts crapping out riflemen. For many specialties it takes years to make someone effective.
I was in the Air Force. I spent a couple of years as an MP. We guarded bases, planes and bombs.
The training you receive as an MP is nothing compared to the training you receive as an Army or Marine infantry or rifleman.
Not to disparage the AF but its like rent a cop compared to serious soldier work.
The AF and Navy guys are being required to ride shotgun on convoys. Many of them into extremely hostile areas.
That is not the Air Force or Navy Mission.
Improperly trained, inadequately trained kids are being sent into harms way in a mission they never signed up for becuase our government won't get to grips with the fact that we are under staffed in the military.
There is a reason they are involutarily extending the reserve people and it ain't becuase the military is oversubscribed with enlistees.
50,000 may be off-mark...no doubt. But 3,000 by next Xmas is reasonable. And I wouldn't anticipate the troop levels decreasing any over the next four years. The truth of the matter is that as Guard and Reserve personnel return home (from last year and this year)...they make decisions to let their enlistment expire. Trust me...I've talked to 8 guys over the past six months who made their decision (their wives helped, along with the employers). The active duty crowd may be able to keep numbers up and around the norm...but I think all of the Guard/Reserve units by 2008 will be in desperate straits for manpower. By the end of the Bush era...there will be 5,000 troops dead as a minimum...the stat's aren't decreasing if you look at each month over past year.
The only change that might help is if the Iraqi government simply goes ballastic and starts killing Muslim clerics. I'd pull one out of the mosque each day and just shoot them. Saddam would have done it and that was enough to keep folks in line. Thats the only way this madness will halt.
I'm a realist about this whole thing. The only thing we can tell these young men and women going over is to take every protective measure possible and pray for them. And I'd tell each one to take out the maxium life insurance possible to cover the wife and kids. The current policy is ok...but considering the odds of getting killed...I'd want my family to have at least half a million for my life.
I can't speak about the Navy, but he Air Force units are far from untrained. In fact, the Air Force is running a school that specializes in training people for armed convoy and security duty. They have been doing this for some time, and Air Force convoy security units are very good - top quality. The Air Force program directly competes with similiar schools run by the Marine Corp and Army.
That's a terrible, terrible idea for more reasons than can possibly be explained. I'm curious as to how many people who've served in the modern volunteer military would prefer to have served beside a draftee who may have had zero interest or aptitude for military service. I sure as hell wouldn't have.
That's not to denigrate everyone who was drafted, because statistics tell you that some of those draftees would make fine soldiers. But those same statistics tell you that some are going to make absolutely lousy soldiers as well. I wouldn't want to see my troops killed because we were forced to take in some knucklehead not suited to military service.
It's a terrible idea for a bunch of other reasons as well, including force management, development of NCO's, loss of experience when trained draftees leave at much hire rates than do volunteers, crummy compensation, exemptions....
I think a lot of people advocate a universal draft not out of an informed belief that it would improve the military, but out of some misguided and ill-informed attempt at social engineering. And to think using the military for social engineering was supposed to be something of which liberals were guilty.
Then you should ping the AM.
This story is alredy posted anyway.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1296727/posts
A lady in my church (who's husband was just sent to Iraq) said her husband had told her there are enough recruits on call for at least the next year and a half. And they keep coming.
Ironic screen name given this post.
Hackworth - specializing in being proven wrong since before Desert Storm
Trust ME... troop levels by April will be down to pre-election levels, because there won't BE any reason to keep them in theater. And one dirty little accounting secret is this: first-time enlistments are down, but RETENTION levels are the same. Troops who come back, more often than not, re-up to do it again. The smaller fraction of guys who chuck it all, are the ones you see and hear about the most - because it makes good anti-Bush copy.
The only thing we can tell these young men and women going over is to take every protective measure possible and pray for them. And I'd tell each one to take out the maxium life insurance possible to cover the wife and kids. The current policy is ok...but considering the odds of getting killed...I'd want my family to have at least half a million for my life.
Odds of getting killed? MY kids are all coming back with me. We'll have injuries along the way - there's a larger chance of a training accident than a live-fire injury, now - and the best protective measure we have is not additional life insurance. It's TRAINING. No one goes in theater without it. And it'll take those four months I mentioned to get everyone done up right. Even me, because there's new tricks I'd like to learn, myself.
I quit listening to Hack after he threw a tantrum when we did not have a prolonged war in Iraq( as he predicted) and we did not suffer huge losses ( as he predicted.
Um, not to boast about the AF, but they do have some of the best military security forces out there, its their primary mission in Korea i believe, and the Navy has way too many guys sitting this one out, so let them have some fun too!
plus a great number of security force members in the navy are BUDS drops who completed most of SEAL training, not a bad advantage even if they happen to be "inexperienced"
the reason the Guard and Reserve numbers are down is because Troops are staying IN / REUP in stead of getting out and joining the Guard/Reserve... plus some of Guard/Reserve Troops are transferring to full time Active Duty.
I would be the first to boast about the AF being an AF Vet and all.
What I am saying is that an Air Force recruit, fresh out of basic training is in no way as prepared for a war zone as an Army or Marine recruit. That is who is being sent into Iraq to augment the ground forces there.
It is a misuse of resources to cover their sorry backsides at the Rumsfeld level in my opinion.
I agree with your definition. In Iraq, we don't have any (=very few) casualties due to internment, capture, or MIA, so the categories of interest are KIA, Wounded, Killed other than combat and sickness/injury.
I'll accept your 15,000, but suspect that the true number is closer to 10,000.
Our troops need your support, not your flipant sarcasm like Rummy did yesterday. A soldier who is worried if his family has enough food will have trouble keeping his mind on the battle.
It is time that we all put some backbone in the "I support our troops" slogans.
Don't have kids/wife if you want to support them on E-5 pay (which you can do). The reason a lot of military folks are qualifying for foodstamps is their income is low due to the amount of income that taxable (base pay).
I'm sure some people who volunteer make lousy soldiers too.
And I'm also sure that if military service were mandatory--with no exceptions--then there's a fair chance that military service could become something that the majority of men would want and want to do well:
After food and water, men strive for respect--which comes from many places, and is not limited to having a well paying career.
And if everyone must serve, it's more likely that men will want to compete to do it well, as opposed to feeling that they're risking their lives while some wily draft-dodger is making millions on Wall Street and being admired for being successful in business.
Were there not warrior socieites in the past? And did not their men make fine warriors?
My feeling is that a country whose average citizen makes a poor soldier . . .
Is a country whose average citizen make a poor voter . . .
Is a country whose average citizen makes a poor citizen.
The valuse system of American culture needs to change--that is the problem--not the stuff men are made of.
Well, it sounds like you have more and better experience on the specifics than I, so I'll defer to that.
The stop loss, is not entirely an issue of insufficient recruits. Their are also matters of unit cohesion.
Sending replacement straight into combat has always netted greater losses among those replacements than experienced by whole units.
I've yet to see anything showing a drop in enlistment, although I've read many articles warning of it.
Thanks for you input.
It's nice to be able to solve all the world's problems by assuming that all of humanity will respond to stimuli the way you want them to, but reality is much different. The thought a majority of teenagers are going to "want" military service because they're forced to do it is laughable.
You have absolutely no evidence to support a belief that those who have to be dragged forcibly into military service are as likely to make good soldiers as those who volunteer. That's just wishful thinking.
Were there not warrior socieites in the past?
Yes. And to avoid a too-rambling discussion, which one of them do you want to use as your example?
And did not their men make fine warriors?
What do you mean by "their men"? Do you mean all of them? My feeling is that a country whose average citizen makes a poor soldier . . . Is a country whose average citizen make a poor voter . . . Is a country whose average citizen makes a poor citizen.
Your feelings are nice, and there's a chance they're even correct. But you can't project them on millions of people who don't share them. Just because you think people should react a certain way based on your value system does not mean that they will.
The valuse system of American culture needs to change--that is the problem--not the stuff men are made of.
So, you really do wish to use the military as an engine of social change, huh? Thanks, but not thanks. I don't want to see troops die because of the social engineering schemes of you or anyone else.
Bye the way, are you a vet? And if so, did you see any problems with the volunteer system that need to be fixed by a draft? I'm a vet, and a combat vet to boot. And I can categorically say that some people are cut out to be good at that, and some are not. I have many friends who are good people, but would make pretty lousy soldiers. Particularly compared to the generally high quality of today's volunteer.
Ever see Band of Brothers, btw? Do you know what distinguished the men of Easy Company from the men of the average line division?
Hackworth isn't a reliable source of information, but he is becoming a darling of the left. (Ever notice how those two things seem to go together?)
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