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Tauzin loses votes in official tally
KLFY TV, Lafayette, Louisiana ^
Posted on 12/07/2004 2:29:21 PM PST by StJacques
BATON ROUGE, La. An official count from the 13 parishes comprising Louisiana's Third Congressional District shows Billy Tauzin the Third lost ground.
Unofficial results from Saturday night's runoff between the Republican and Democrat Charles Melancon gave Melancon a 523-vote margin from more than 104-thousand votes cast.
The parishes opened their voting machines this morning. A survey by The Associated Press determined that Tauzin lost 62 votes, while Melancon gained one vote.
The parishes will send their tallies to the secretary of state, who will make the count official.
TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: congress; election; louisiana; melancon; tauzin; thirddistrict; votingmachines
Tauzin's loss is a big blow to us here in Louisiana. We came very close to locking down six out of the seven congressional districts for the Republican Party, now we must settle for five. We entered this year with four seats.
Tauzin ran one of the worst campaigns in recent memory here in Louisiana. In our General Primary on November 2 -- we have no political primaries -- he finished first and the sum total of votes for all Republican candidates was in the neighborhood of 57%. But during that primary campaign Tauzin sent a private mailing to Republican voters that accused a Republican opponent, Craig Romero of New Iberia, of something akin to a sodomy charge that left Romero and his backers enraged beyond words after they lost the runoff spot by less than 2% of the total vote. They turned on Tauzin and in the runoff election just held, his Democratic opponent Charles Melancon carried Iberia Parish [Romero's home parish] by a larger margin of votes than his victory in the entire race. Turnout was incredibly low district wide as well, which is in large part due to the purely negative nature of the campaign, as Tauzin never even attempted to establish a dialogue with voters and Melancon brought out details of a DWI conviction in Tauzin's past.
Even though we won a big one Saturday when Republican Charles Boustany of Lafayette -- my home town -- beat Democrat Willie Landry Mount to take away the 7th congressional district seat that had been held by Democrat Chris John, the Tauzin loss is a great disappointment, because we could have just sewn up this state's congressional delegation for the Republican Party for good. We came so close.
1
posted on
12/07/2004 2:29:22 PM PST
by
StJacques
To: StJacques
Isn't it surprising how the Republican candidates seem to always lose votes in a recount (Ref:Washington State)?
To: StJacques
3
posted on
12/07/2004 2:34:48 PM PST
by
Brilliant
To: Brilliant
Says who?
A pro-life Democrat won, fair and square.
4
posted on
12/07/2004 2:36:32 PM PST
by
Guillermo
("But they're European cut vinyl pirate pants" - Rudy Canoza)
To: Guillermo
Let's see how he votes. Kerry is also "pro-life."
5
posted on
12/07/2004 2:38:11 PM PST
by
Brilliant
To: Brilliant
There were 2 counts, he lost them both.
It's up to Tauzin to prove there was fraud.
If he can prove it, then give him the seat. If he can't, then it's time to move on.
6
posted on
12/07/2004 2:40:19 PM PST
by
Guillermo
("But they're European cut vinyl pirate pants" - Rudy Canoza)
To: StJacques
I don't know anything much about this race except what I've seen here, but I gather that Tauzin is a poor excuse for a candidate whose family connection is the only reason he was nominated. Although it's regretable to lose a Republican seat, it may be a good thing in the long run if Billy Tauzin leaves politics for some other line of business. Maybe next time they can find someone more qualified for the job.
7
posted on
12/07/2004 2:41:59 PM PST
by
Cicero
(Nil illegitemus carborundum est)
To: Guillermo
Even if there was fraud, they'll move on.
8
posted on
12/07/2004 2:42:58 PM PST
by
Brilliant
To: StJacques; All
All in all, 2004 was a remarkable year for LA republicans. Bush and Vitter won, we have five of seven house seats, and the winning democrat ran commercials promising he was pro-life, anti gay marriage and has a 100% rating from the NRA. Plus, Blanco keeps the national party at arm's length. LA will eventually be as conservative as the rest of the South. Well done, LA freepers, you should be proud.
9
posted on
12/07/2004 2:53:11 PM PST
by
goldensky
To: Guillermo
It's up to Tauzin to prove there was fraud.
If demonrats control the voting, there is fraud, GAURANTEED!
10
posted on
12/07/2004 2:56:24 PM PST
by
SwinneySwitch
(America, bless God!)
To: StJacques; shanscom; JohnnyZ; fieldmarshaldj; Coop; Clintonfatigued; Theodore R.
The seat was Billy Tauzin III's to lose, and he proceeded to do just that. I hope every Republican in the district rallies around state Senator Romero in 2006 and we can retake the district, thus controlling 6 of the 7 House seats in Louisiana.
I recall how some FReepers were saying that Senator John Breaux could basically walk on water in Lousiana, and that his endorsement was worth its weight in gold, using the narrow wins during the past couple of years by Mary Landrieu and Kathleen Blanco in 2002 and 2003, respectively, as evidence. But this year Breaux endorsed young Billy in the 3rd CD, Chris John in the Senate race, and Zelma Blakes in the 5th CD (and maybe Willie Mount in the 7th CD as well), and they all lost. Seems like the Breaux endorsement wasn't all that it was cracked up to be.
11
posted on
12/07/2004 2:58:13 PM PST
by
AuH2ORepublican
(Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
To: Guillermo
"There were 2 counts, he lost them both.
It's up to Tauzin to prove there was fraud.
If he can prove it, then give him the seat. If he can't, then it's time to move on."
Tauzin lost this race legitimately, or at legitimately as far as the counting of votes goes. There are always fraudulent votes cast in Louisiana, but since Tauzin's district does not include New Orleans, it was a minor factor.
To: Cicero
". . . it may be a good thing in the long run if Billy Tauzin leaves politics for some other line of business. Maybe next time they can find someone more qualified for the job."
In Louisiana, the strength of incumbency is very strong. Once you win a seat you own it, unless you are markedly outside the mainstream. Melancon and the Democratic Party now own this seat until he retires. And that really is a shame because the 3rd congressional district was the first one in Louisiana to elect a Republican in modern times, when Dave Treen was elected in 1972. We held the seat for at least sixteen years since then.
About the only incumbent in Washington from Louisiana who I consider vulnerable is Mary Landrieu, and we are going to go after her big time four years from now.
To: AuH2ORepublican
I hope every Republican in the district rallies around state Senator Romero in 2006 and we can retake the district, thus controlling 6 of the 7 House seats in Louisiana. I hope we take the seat, but not with Romero. Every source I've seen says he endorsed Babblin' Blank-o for governor. I failed to find one single shred of evidence to refute it. That to me says it all. No true Republican would endorse her over Bobby Jindal.
14
posted on
12/07/2004 3:05:40 PM PST
by
gbunch
(Inventor of the P-Sight rear blade sight for Kel-Tec P-3AT/P-32 http://www.psenhancements.com)
To: AuH2ORepublican
". . . that Senator John Breaux could basically walk on water in Lousiana, and that his endorsement was worth its weight in gold . . . this year Breaux endorsed . . . and maybe Willie Mount in the 7th CD as well . . . "
Yes, he did endorse Willie Mount, who ran the TV ad with Breaux talking to voters continuously, and his endorsement should have carried more weight in the 7th congressional district than anywhere else, since this is Breaux's home district. Not only did the Republican Charles Boustany win the race 55% - 45% but even Breaux's home town (Crowley) and home parish (Acadia) went for Boustany by something approaching 60% of the vote if my memory serves me correctly.
But John Breaux is very well respected by Republicans here in Louisiana, and the La. Freepers who have pointed this out have not been off base. It's just that nobody's endorsement really counts for much anymore.
To: gbunch
"I hope we take the seat, but not with Romero. . . ."
Romero is the Louisiana version of a RINO. I don't ever want him to run for anything again, not even for reelection to his State Senator's job.
To: StJacques
The Louisiana results were just the opposite of what I had expected from my out of state perspective. I thought Tauzin would win on name recognition, and I thought they would hold John's seat.
17
posted on
12/07/2004 3:16:45 PM PST
by
Dog Gone
To: gbunch
"I hope we take the seat, but not with Romero. Every source I've seen says he endorsed Babblin' Blank-o for governor."
You're right, state Senator Craig Romero did endorse Blanco in the 2003 gubernatorial election. But so did Congressman Rodney Alexander, and we welcomed him with open arms when he switched to the GOP a few months ago. I think we need to keep in mind that party affiliation isn't as important in Louisiana as it is in most other parts of the nation, and I would have no problem supporting a strongly conservative Republican such as Romero if he ran again in 2006. Anyhow, here's the story of his endorsement of Blanco:
"State party officials and Tauzin loyalists have been circulating a November 2003 article from a New Iberia newspaper, The Daily Iberian, that detailed Romero's support of Blanco. He was quoted by the paper as saying Blanco, a native of nearby Lafayette, better understood the need to dig deeper shipping channels in Port Iberia.
"We have to vote for the future of our area and support this candidate," he said.
Blanco went on to win the two parishes represented by Romero -- Iberia, where he was once parish president, and neighboring St. Martin -- by a combined 10,085 votes. That was about 20 percent of her statewide margin of victory in the Nov. 15 runoff, 55,000 votes out of 1.4 million cast.
"A Republican senator coming out for a Democrat nominee -- a little thing like that can make a big difference," said Timmy Teepel, spokesman for Jindal's current campaign for the 1st Congressional District seat. "But Bobby's focused on his race now. He's looking forward, not backward." Romero said Wednesday that Blanco is a distant relative and that "family is more important to politics." He pointed out that U.S. Sen. John Breaux of Louisiana, a Democrat and godfather of Billy Tauzin III, was present at the younger Tauzin's candidacy announcement this year.
Romero added that soon after Blanco took office, he lost his post as chairman of the Senate Natural Resources Committee.
"If I am so close to Kathleen Blanco, why am I no longer chairman?" he said."
http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/capital/index.ssf?/base/news-2/109349971172230.xml
18
posted on
12/07/2004 3:22:10 PM PST
by
AuH2ORepublican
(Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
Comment #19 Removed by Moderator
Comment #20 Removed by Moderator
To: Dog Gone
"
The Louisiana results were just the opposite of what I had expected from my out of state perspective. I thought Tauzin would win on name recognition, and I thought they would hold John's seat."
Since I put up an earlier post on the prospects for this election I have a table I can paste in to show just how strong the sentiment was for Bush in Louisiana's 7th congressional district, which Chris John had held and Boustany has now won, it's a pretty solid Republican district, and I am now a little more proud to say I live there:
Presidential Vote in Louisiana's Seventh Congressional District*
| Parish |
Vote for Bush |
% for Bush |
Vote for Kerry |
% for Kerry |
| Acadia |
16,083 |
64% |
8,937 |
35% |
| Calcasieu |
46,058 |
58% |
32,844 |
41% |
| Cameron |
3,190 |
69% |
1,367 |
29% |
| Evangeline |
8,361 |
58% |
5,756 |
40% |
| Jefferson Davis |
8,064 |
61% |
4,845 |
37% |
| Lafayette |
57,730 |
64% |
31,205 |
35% |
| St. Landry |
18,314 |
50% |
18,162 |
49% |
| Vermillion |
15,069 |
61% |
9083 |
37% |
| Totals |
172,869 |
60% |
112,189 |
39% |
*
There were seven other minor candidates on the Louisiana presidential ballot whose results were negligible in the district, but whose total vote may account for some parish percentages adding up to less than 100%
Tauzin still could have won the third district race, where sentiment was almost as strong for Bush, if he had only done more to turn out his vote. But the purely negative nature of his campaign turned off voters and the good guys stayed home on election day.
To: StJacques
Louisiana still has a lot to be proud of. Grabbing Breaux's seat was huge. It means far more than winning or losing the 3rd Congressional District this time.
22
posted on
12/07/2004 4:03:51 PM PST
by
Dog Gone
To: Dog Gone
"Louisiana still has a lot to be proud of. . . ."
Thank you Dog Gone. I think we do indeed. And a number of dedicated people, myself included, worked very hard to make it happen. Six of Louisiana's nine seats in Washington -- combining House and Senate numbers -- are now in Republican hands. It was four out of nine at the start of this year. Not too bad I think.
To: StJacques
Fact is, there were 2 counts, he lost them both.
Let's not act like the 'Rats and demand more and more recounts until we see the result we desire.
24
posted on
12/07/2004 4:14:43 PM PST
by
Guillermo
("But they're European cut vinyl pirate pants" - Rudy Canoza)
To: StJacques
"Not only did the Republican Charles Boustany win the race 55% - 45% but even Breaux's home town (Crowley) and home parish (Acadia) went for Boustany by something approaching 60% of the vote if my memory serves me correctly."
I'm not surprised, since Acadia Parish is heavily Catholic, and a Catholic from next-door Lafayette Parish such as Boustany has a huge advantage there over a Methodist from Lake Charles such as Mount.
25
posted on
12/07/2004 4:15:23 PM PST
by
AuH2ORepublican
(Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
To: StJacques
"Romero is the Louisiana version of a RINO."
Correctly if I'm wrong, but Craig Romero is 100% pro-life, pro-gun, pro-military, pro-tax cuts, anti-affirmative action and anti-environmental extremism. Maybe he isn't as "loyal" to the GOP as we would like, but there is no doubt in my mind that he would vote the right way in Congress 99.9% of the time.
26
posted on
12/07/2004 4:20:03 PM PST
by
AuH2ORepublican
(Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
To: AuH2ORepublican
"I'm not surprised, since Acadia Parish is heavily Catholic, and a Catholic from next-door Lafayette Parish such as Boustany has a huge advantage there over a Methodist from Lake Charles such as Mount."
I've always thought the Catholic vote was important, but not as important as other factors, until this year. I just googled a quick search to try to find some numbers that were discussed in a local television news report that I saw right after the presidential election, I was unsuccessful, but it said that Bush carried almost 70% of the Catholic vote statewide and over 70% in "Acadiana," which is the Cajun heartland containing both the 7th and 3rd congressional districts.
I am a Catholic myself and I would have thought that I could have seen the strength of this trend staring me in the face. I knew that the Catholic vote was solidly Republican but whenever you get up into the 70% range and over you are talking about "wipeout" numbers, which even I would not have predicted.
To: AuH2ORepublican
"Correctly if I'm wrong, but Craig Romero is 100% pro-life, pro-gun, pro-military, pro-tax cuts, anti-affirmative action and anti-environmental extremism. Maybe he isn't as "loyal" to the GOP as we would like, but there is no doubt in my mind that he would vote the right way in Congress 99.9% of the time."
All of the above are true, but Romero's family is an old-line Democratic machine that practically ruled Iberia Parish politics for decades -- which is also why I can't believe Tauzin was so stupid as to pi$$ them off in the General Primary. Romero's family has very close ties to the old Edwin Edwards political machine, which explains his support for Blanco, and through that machine to the [Moon] Landrieu political machine in New Orleans. What this all amounts too is that no one can be "clean" with that kind of history and those kinds of contacts. If you had been as involved as I have been fighting the good fight for the Republicans here in Louisiana you would consider those points to be something of great importance, even though they might not translate into issues of national relevance. The truth is, most Louisianians "think Republican" on national issues, and John Breaux is a good case in point, and the real sad story is that we Republicans have been so slow to translate that opinion into electoral victories. And I'll skip my three hour lecture on why this is so. Lol!
To: StJacques
"I am a Catholic myself and I would have thought that I could have seen the strength of this trend staring me in the face. I knew that the Catholic vote was solidly Republican but whenever you get up into the 70% range and over you are talking about "wipeout" numbers, which even I would not have predicted."
I, too, am Catholic, and am heartened to see Louisiana Catholics voting overwhelmingly Republican this year. As you may know, Clinton carried Acadiana rather comfortably in the 1990s, and I was afraid that Cajuns would continue to be one of the few white groups in the South to vote Democrat in presidential elections.
But the main reason why I thought that Cajuns would vote for Boustany over Mount was not because of the party identification, but because Boustany is a Catholic from Acadiana while Mount is a Protestant from Lake Charles. Had someone like Congressman Chris John (a socially conservative Catholic from Crowley, just like Breaux) run for the Democrats, I don't know if Boustany could have won the run-off, and he certainly wouldn't have won by 10%.
I hope Chris John does not decide to take on Boustany in 2006.
29
posted on
12/07/2004 4:34:32 PM PST
by
AuH2ORepublican
(Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
To: AuH2ORepublican
". . . I hope Chris John does not decide to take on Boustany in 2006."
John could make a run of it, but I will predict right now that Boustany would win that race. When John first won his seat in 1996 it was because the Republican candidate David Thibodeaux lost a challenge in court on a technicality, this involved some suspicious votes "suddenly appearing" in Evangeline Parish on election night that should not have been counted, that he should have been in the runoff facing John. Had Thibodeaux won that challenge I have little doubt he would have beaten John. Add into that the fact that John's home parish is also a Boustany stronghold and you come down to Chris John needing to win Calcasieu Parish (Lake Charles) by a significant margin, which he cannot do as an "outsider." The only way John would be able to make a case for himself would be on the issue of "biography" and Boustany, who is an accomplished Heart Surgeon with an outstanding record of treating patients who could not afford his services for nothing, would wipe the floor with John, who can only claim that he is a former congressman and is the son of an old-line Democratic Party politician. And let me add that David Vitter beat Chris John solidly in the 7th congressional district in the Senate race.
No; I'm not worried about Chris John trying to make a comeback. The Republican Party owns this seat now. And God Bless Charles Boustany!
To: StJacques
I lost all respect for Billy Tauzin after he put an ad in the local paper expressing his gratitude to the voters and well wishers who sent him cards while he was undergoing his cancer treatments. This ad said nothing about the fact that he was retiring, or that his 30 year old son was the one running for office. It was a blatant attempt to fool some who might not know better, that it was he who they would be casting their ballots for and not his son. The state republican party should stay out of the election entirely and not choose sides when two republicans are running for office. They tried to force-feed Tauzin's 30 year old son down our throats instead of allowing us to choose for ourselves who we wanted to support. "Name recognition" fostered misleading ads trying to fool people about who they were being asked to vote for. Screw Tauzin and screw the state republican party that delivered him to our doorsteps.
Craig Romero is actually a decent man with morals. Something the Tauzin's apparently lack.
To: StJacques
Will Melancon have this seat for life?
To: Holden Magroin
"Will Melancon have this seat for life?"
Something close to it Holden. The last incumbent congressman I recall losing a seat was when Republican Clyde Holloway had his seat (8th District) eliminated after redistricting following the 1990 census and had to contend for another seat in 1992 and lost. Republican Richard Baker had a tough fight in 1998 to hang on to his 6th District seat against Democrat Marjorie McKeithen, but Baker still won. I really don't recall any other incumbent congressman even being in a fight for his seat in recent memory.
To: shanscom; Dog Gone; WFTR; AuH2ORepublican
When I watch TV it's FOX News and Leno, Conan O'Brien and occasionally Carson Daly on NBC -- rarely anything else. I saw Melancon ads on both, especially FOX, and I have to be honest -- I never saw one ad for Billy Tauzin, III in all that time, and I wouldn't be surprised in WFTR (who lives in Ascension and helped Tauzin too) can attest to that. Actually, I saw some adds for BT3 on Fox News, but he didn't start running them until after Mr. Melancon had been running them for over a week. I agree that BT3 didn't advertise as much. I just wish that the RNC hadn't run all of those negative ads.
Bill
34
posted on
12/08/2004 5:26:58 PM PST
by
WFTR
(Liberty isn't for cowards)
To: WFTR
Live and learn. In Lousiana and nationally we made gains. Can't win 'em all, but we can try again in a couple of years.
35
posted on
12/08/2004 5:32:19 PM PST
by
Dog Gone
To: Dog Gone
You're absolutely right. I'm disappointed about Saturday, but I'm pleased with our effort all around. David Vitter won strongly and is our first Republican senator. In 2000, President Bush received 55% of the vote and 16,000 total votes in Ascension Parish. In November, David Vitter won 55% of the vote and 21,000 votes. Much of that gain came from the growing population in our parish. Much of it was coattails from President Bush's strong support here. However, we campaigned hard, and I'd like to think that we played a part in the win in this parish.
Bill
36
posted on
12/08/2004 5:37:52 PM PST
by
WFTR
(Liberty isn't for cowards)
To: WFTR
We can never give up. There is still more to do, and complacency is our biggest enemy. It's not Democrat ideas.
37
posted on
12/08/2004 5:55:21 PM PST
by
Dog Gone
To: StJacques
This is too bad--but maybe like the fellow who ran for governor, he, too, will come back to run again and win the next time!
38
posted on
12/08/2004 6:01:32 PM PST
by
MHT
To: MHT
"
This is too bad--but maybe like the fellow who ran for governor, he, too, will come back to run again and win the next time!"
I assume you're referring to
Bobby Jindal, who ran unsuccessfully for Governor in Louisiana last year but recently won a seat in Congress representing Louisiana's 1st District, and won it easily I might add. This is one of the reasons I don't like Craig Romero, who supported the Democratic candidate Kathleen Blanco in that contest which disappointed me greatly. I really believe Bobby Jindal's gubernatorial candidacy was the best opportunity Louisiana has had to fix some
major problems -- and boy do we have them -- in a long time.
Somehow I don't see Tauzin winning that seat back, given the history of incumbency in Louisiana when looking at congressional seats. But the upcoming congressional session will put Melancon in the spotlight when it comes to some key issues President Bush will push for, especially tax reform, the one issue that may disappoint Louisiana voters if Melancon sides with the left wing of the Democratic Party on key votes. If this is to happen it could put his seat in play but I have got to believe Melancon is aware of this. So my final take is "not likely but maybe there will be an opening for Tauzin or someone else to exploit." We'll see.
I really believe the best chance for Republicans to take this seat back is for some other Republican candidate, neither Tauzin nor Romero, to make a run in 2006, which he or she would likely lose, and then run again in 2008 with name recognition district-wide and a Republican presidential candidate on the ballot to boost turnout. That turnout really is the key here in Louisiana. I mentioned in my original post that in Louisiana Republicans do much better when turnout numbers are up, something of a disconnect with the rest of the country, but a reality when you look at the numbers.
Take a look at the turnout numbers -- count total votes -- in the Nov. 2 General Primary and the Dec. 4 runoff in the 3rd congressional district:
U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District All 573 precincts reporting Click here for Results by Parish |
| 25,783 |
10% |
Damon J. Baldone, D |
Defeated |
| 19,347 |
7% |
Charmaine Degruise Caccioppi, D |
Defeated |
| 10,350 |
4% |
Kevin D. Chiasson, R |
Defeated |
| 63,328 |
24% |
"Charlie" Melancon, D |
Runoff |
| 61,132 |
23% |
Craig Romero, R |
Defeated |
| 84,680 |
32% |
W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R |
Runoff |
U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District 573 of 573 precincts reporting Click here for Results by Parish |
| 57,611 |
50% |
"Charlie" Melancon, D |
- |
| 57,042 |
50% |
W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R |
- |
My quick calculation is that there were 264,620 votes cast in the Nov. 2 General Primary as opposed to 114,653 votes in the Dec. 4 runoff. And notice that Melancon got 5,717 fewer votes in the runoff compared to the fact that Tauzin got 27,638 fewer votes. Can you see how badly he blew this race? The three Republican candidates in the Nov. 2 General Primary had 59% of the total vote combined between them and Tauzin still couldn't put the race away. Arrrrgggggghhhhhhhhhh!
Forgive me.
To: StJacques
In spite of the momentum that incumbency gives a politician, sea changes do occur. Dasshole was a perfect example of what can happen. He worked hard to make sure that no recount was done in the Thune/Johnson race in 2002 when there were less than 500 votes separating them. Two years later, he lost to the same opponent by ten times that number. I am, perhaps foolishly, optimistic that the general trends toward Republicans will effect future elections, even those like Tauzin's.
Given the general trendlines of black voter turnout and white reproductions rates (not to mention the continued movement left by the Democrats), the demographics of Louisiana could be changing in favor of the Republicans. Who knows--maybe Tauzin will end up skipping the House altogether, win a state office, and eventually run for the Senate.
40
posted on
12/08/2004 10:55:27 PM PST
by
MHT
To: MHT
". . . the demographics of Louisiana could be changing in favor of the Republicans. . . ."
You're right on this one though the point bears some qualification. Back in the mid-1980's Louisiana suffered a terrible economic blow when the price of oil plummeted and the oil industry in our state nearly collapsed, which in turn hurt just about every other sector of our economy. What began then was what demographers describe as "outmigration" of Louisiana residents seeking jobs elsewhere. And these "migrants" were our people. They were largely young, educated workers to well-educated professionals, with families either growing or starting, and Republican-leaning in their voting behavior. It seems this trend has run its course, though we still have a lot of our college graduates who leave, but this is now balanced to some degree by the slow but steady development of high-tech industries in some of our more prosperous urban areas; particularly Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and Shreveport, which are in fact attracting some out-of-staters to come here. We have also seen some slight growth in export trade that has had some positive effects as well. So the "demographics" as they affect Republicans are that the population is relatively stable with brighter economic prospects for the most part and voters are trending in our direction.
To: StJacques
Isn't Louisiana also drawing young retirees? My husband and I almost bought property, until a hurricane nearly destroyed the island. The lure of Sportsman's Paradise without being in California or Florida, or without the winters of Montana, is quite tempting.
42
posted on
12/09/2004 4:31:30 PM PST
by
MHT
To: MHT
"
Isn't Louisiana also drawing young retirees? My husband and I almost bought property, until a hurricane nearly destroyed the island. . . ."
Were you thinking about buying property on Grand Isle? I know that there are some developers advertising it as a retiree paradise, but I wouldn't do that.
Grand Isle experienced one of the worst hurricanes in recorded history in 1909.
There have been others on offshore islands in Timbalier Bay and the Isles Dernières that are tantamount to "ghost stories" you tell around the campfire as well. No; don't retire to an offshore island in Louisiana. Ask yourself why the locals don't live there.
To: StJacques
----Even though we won a big one Saturday when Republican Charles Boustany of Lafayette -- my home town -- beat Democrat Willie Landry Mount to take away the 7th congressional district seat that had been held by Democrat Chris John, the Tauzin loss is a great disappointment, because we could have just sewn up this state's congressional delegation for the Republican Party for good. We came so close.---- It is indeed disappointing, but look at it this way: Melancon's was a fluke win in solid Republican territory, while Boustany's win was a continuance of emerging Republicanism in traditional Democratic territory.
The 2nd District is Republican country, and Melancon's win doesn't change that. After all the two Republicans did to carve one another up, in what could very well have been THE nastiest congressional race of 2004, the Democrat's margin of victory was only 500 votes. A Democrat holding La's CD-02 is like two Democrats holding at-large congressional seats in North and South Dakota (two do). Their presences are aberrations -- especially in Melancon's case -- in solid Republican country.
Boustany's ten-point win of CD-07 is the race to look at. For the FIRST TIME IN THE HISTORY OF THIS STATE, a Republican won this district, and though intraparty fighting on the Democrats' side did play a role in the win, Boustany's ten-point margin is only the most recent sign of fundamental realignment in an area that once gave the state John Breaux and EDWIN EDWARDS. Did you know that no Democratic presidential candidate has carried Lafayette Parish in 40 years? It's true. And with KKKathleen Bubbaneaux Blanco unable to win her own hometown last year, and Chris John unable to take it this year, Lafayette is becoming more and more of a problem for Democrats in statewide races.
Considering this, along with Vitter's outright Senate win and Bush's 15-point victory in the face of KKKathleen Bubbaneaux Blanco's embarrassing cheerleading for John F'n Kerry, the Republicans definitely captured the glory in Louisiana this year. And it's about damned time.
-Dan
To: Flux Capacitor
". . . . Considering this, along with Vitter's outright Senate win and Bush's 15-point victory in the face of KKKathleen Bubbaneaux Blanco's embarrassing cheerleading for John F'n Kerry, the Republicans definitely captured the glory in Louisiana this year. And it's about damned time."
It's long overdue in fact. And you're right about Lafayette becoming the bastion of the Republican Party here in Louisiana. I had a conversation with my Mom about this earlier this week. In 1971 my Mom became the Parish Coordinator for the Republican Party here in Lafayette back when the total percentage of registered voters here who listed themselves as "Republican" was 9%. And she was very sure of the figure, remembering her first Parish PAC meeting at which they undertook a voter registration drive. She served in the post for two years during which time they managed to raise that figure to 15% and she recently had a conversation with one of the "old guard" within the parish Republican organization who has been fighting the good fight for about forty years who told her that she was there "when things began to turn in our favor," something that warmed her heart as she looked over the voting returns, something she takes a great interest in I might add. My Mom says that it was the "oil patch," meaning the various people who worked in the oil business, who turned things around for us here. They were a hard-working, no-nonsense, speak-the-truth bunch of folks; many of whom were from out-of-state, who gave generously of their time and money to move the party forward here. After that burst of growth, it became a slow process of winning over the local Cajun folk and, as my Mom puts it, "that was never going to happen until we got past Edwin Edwards."
A couple of minor points to add here:
The Melancon-Tauzin race was in the 3rd congressional district. Jefferson is the congressman representing the 2nd.
I do agree that the 3rd congressional district race may have been the "nastiest" in the country this year and I also believe that is Tauzin's fault. I'm guessing he felt he had a better chance of winning if he was THE Republican candidate in the runoff rather than the "better of two" Republicans. And he might have been right, because I believe that Democrats would have chosen Romero over Tauzin, since Romero has some pretty close ties to Kathleen Blanco.
On Lafayette rejecting hometown girl Kathleen Blanco -- it tells you something about her, doesn't it? The people who know her best want her come home and shut up. I am really looking forward to 2007 when we can take back the Governor's chair. And I believe we will if we can just get a good candidate to run. Maybe Jindal will try again.
To: StJacques
----The Melancon-Tauzin race was in the 3rd congressional district. Jefferson is the congressman representing the 2nd.---- Damn! You're right. And THAT one's not going Republican anytime soon. :)
-Dam
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