Economic `Armageddon' predicted

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=55356 ^ | 11/23/2004 | Brett Arends

[Prime Choice]

His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''

I'll save this one in my collection of Dumbassed Predictions That Never Came True.

These predictions are invariably made by Democrats and other Leftists and terrorist sympathizers.

[GWB00]

The DU guys had this article posted earlier today and as predictable, they were giddy about this guys prognostics.

[Chuck54]

You wouldn't be trolling would ya?

[Prime Choice]

You wouldn't be trolling would ya?

Not unless he's a sleeper troll (which I doubt). The guy's been here for over a year.

[sinkspur]

Roach predicted "armageddon" on January 1, 2000 when millions of mainframes, worldwide, would bring the world to its knees.

Roach has never been right, about anything. He even missed the Clinton recession.

[durasell]

This is very bad stuff. Nothing to be "giddy" about. And he's only repeating what others, like Paul Volcker(SP?)have been saying for a year or more.

[Dallas59]

Me thinks Roach is a....

[Kornev]

The Dummies' desire for the USA to fall is palpable. And just so sad.

[Dozer3]

I fully agree, this one goes in with the ice age tree huggers were predicting back in the 70's.

[Rightone]

Crap. Just like all the rest of these nutty predictions we have heard for the past 30 years. Yeah, sell your stocks. I'll be buying when the prices go down.

Stupid.

[durasell]

Many at the bottom or near the bottom feel that a crash will level the playing field. It won't. What it will do is grind them to dust.

[Thermalseeker]

The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.

So, since I have no debt that means I'll prosper?

[durasell]

He was right about the dot com bust and he was right about the gutting of America's smoke stake industries, when he switched position on the topic back in the early to mid-90s.

[Starboard]

This article borders on hysteria. Nearly every sentence is saturated with excessive anxiety.

[meenie]

"Armageddon" is a relative word. For some "armageddon" will be the loss of their savings. For others it means additional opportunity. The free market always picks and chooses its losers.

[conservativecorner]

Opinions are like a-holes in that everyone has one. Roach is a perma-bear although I do think some of his points are very good. John Mauldin just wrote a great book called Bull's Eye Investing that covers everything from our domestic economy to the world economy as well, and does a great job of helping investors protect their capital in the coming very shaky years. He's not forecasting ``armageddon'' although he thinks we will see a muddle through economy for a long time because of some of the same things that Roach worries about.

[Nick Danger]

trolling would ya?

Nyaa, these "Doom is Just Around the Corner" threads have been a staple on FR for as long as I've been here.

Here's one thing that has decreased in price: You can get a copy of Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It for a mere 49 cents.

[Dallas59]

I take back my previous post...

Jan 2000:

Stephen Roach:

The forces behind the slower growth -- higher energy prices, a slowdown in technology spending, tighter credit, and the negative effects of declining stock prices --

certainly aren't going away. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Chief Economist Stephen Roach argues that with this mix in place, all it would take is one of three "shocks" to shove the U.S. into recession. These include a full-scale energy crisis, brought on by a very cold winter or a war in the Middle East; a weakening dollar, as foreign funds pull out of the U.S.; or a stock-market crash that scares consumers into curbing spending.

Unfortunately, none of these shock scenarios seem far-fetched right now. Roach gives a 40% probability of recession in the first half of 2001. "To me, that is tantamount to maximum alert," he writes.

[Cicero]

To give Stephen Roach credit, he's not saying this for political reasons. As the lead-in suggests, he's bearish.

The current account deficit really is horrific, and puts us at a disadvantage with countries like China, which certainly would love to damage the United States.

Of course he may be completely wrong, but his predictions are based on economics, not politics. There are plenty of political minded, Bush-bashing economists, but I don't think he's one of them.