Posted on 11/01/2004 8:46:17 AM PST by NotchJohnson
Sorry, I just don't. It's too close, and the entire thing is going to turn on voter turnout. As I've said, Democrats are a lot better at the turnout game than are Republicans. It's no mystery why. People more likely to vote Democrat are less likely to have a sense of independence and individuality. They're followers, and as followers they're easily herded.
Bush's best chance is rain ... bad weather in the battleground states. Bad weather will suppress the Democratic vote. And just why is that? Think about it. The Democratic party is the party of dependency; dependency on government. If these people can't be expected to actually get an education, develop a job skill and find a job somewhere, and then manage to generate some degree of economic independence ... why would you expect them to get out there in bad weather to vote? These people don't like hardship, and they don't like putting forth one more bit of effort than they have to in order to survive. If it rains many of them will stay indoors and let someone else take care of things for them. After all, that's been their lifestyle for years, why change now?
I can not say with any confidence that Bush will win.
Bad weather rarely affects and election - its just a myth.
I think Bush winds Florida, loses Ohio. Does not pick up enough Gore states to make up for Ohio loss. Unfortunetly.
Neal has been doing this for a long time. I believe his theory is that this will goad pro-Bush people into voting, but I think his constant negativity is not a good thing.
Not a myth KC. Inner city voters generally walk to the polls. If it's raining and you aren't that enthusiastic about the candidate you are less likely to walk 3 blocks to go vote.
Rain does not have an effect in the burbs and rural areas as most people drive to the polls.
I like Neal's perspective on many things, but he's no fortune teller. Opinions are like A-holes, everyone has one, and it's only HIS opinion.
Boortz is an optimist.
I have a lot of trouble with all the negativity talk. The battleground polling is positive news, and the national polling is looking better as we get past the weekend. We are so close, and it won't take much to have a comfortable electoral college win. The only thing that depresses me is that so many Americans cannot see through Kerry and refuse to back a man who is driven by principles, not polls. Nevertheless, the goal line is in sight. Don't take your eyes off of it.
So . . . no whining. Vote, and take someone with you!
Neal is just slamming the Dems here. The points he makes aren't accurate.
As someone else posted, the whole weather thing is a myth. Also, the Republicans are now better in the GOTV game than the Dems. We learned our lesson in 2000 and had improved dramatically by 2002 with great results. Now in 2004, the Republican GOTV campaign is a massive fine tuned machine.
For months now I have been predicting a Bush "landslide of Reaganesque proportions," but lately I am not so sure.
I am afraid that Democrat vote fraud (and it will be rampant), dead Democrat voters, and the first-time voter, mindless, windup, automoton droids who have been programmed by the Left to pull the lever by the "D" may just steal this election.
I have prayed for a Bush victory. And I am certain that if Kerry wins, the days of our Republic are numbered. All future elections will be rife with Dem fraud and intimidation and lawsuits.
If Kerry wins, the Dems will have succeeded in turning our great nation into a banana republic.
Keep in mind that Neal has written extensively that he believes a sizeable portion of the population is too stupid to vote. If that's your view (and it's not that much of a stretch), the Kerry win seems inevitable.
For the record, I think Neal's wrong on this. Bush 53-47.
Boortz has been calling it for Kerry for months... and frankly the mans makes about as good radio as hillary makes chocolate chip cookies.... Frankly, I think Boortz is a self absorbed idiot.
I am so glad he'll be off the radio here in Pittsburgh soon... his show is definately the worst syndicated one in town... and will be going the way of the dodo in this market soon.
"Bad weather rarely affects and election - its just a myth."
Hard to prove either way. One thing to keep in mind - almost 70% of those who support Bush do so enthusiastically. Only about 30% of Kerry supporters do so enthusiastically. Bad weather is less likely to dampen Bush's support. Other down ballot races or lack of have an impact as well. The gay marriage ammendment in Ohio should turn out the Bush supporters - high water better than hell as it were.
80% chance of copious amounts of rain all over Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan tomorrow. Minnesota and Wisconsin sunny.
Dear God, let me get off of this thread before all the mass suicides begin.
I'm with you. Quit listening to him a long time ago.
From what I've been reading today it does seem to be trending towards Kerry to some degree. The major concern I have is to what extent the 'Rat bogus voter registrations will have and to what extent younger (first time voters) will turn out ... as an easy majority in this group will vote Kerry/Edwards. At this point Bush doesn't have the solid lead he needs to negate this factor ... thus my pessimism.
I'm gonna go half full here. If perchance Kerry wins, that puts the nail on the Clinton coffin. Also, it gives us divided government (assuming the Rs hang on to the Congress, which I suspect they will). Gridlock is great! The Rs are spending more than Ds here lately.
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Naaaa........... I'm still predicting a Bush win. And I half-way expect it to be BIG.
Here's my take - Bush wins 'cuz:
1. Kerry doesn't have 'supporters', he has 'voters'. I think a significant %, when in the privacy of the voting booth, will say to themselves "My God! What am I doing? Am I going to sell out my country for a mess of potage and some promises?"
2. There is no way to reconcile the poll internals with what voters are telling pollsters about their candidate preference. How can Bush be at or above 50% JA, at or above 50% on national security, at our above 50% on the WOT and still be tied with Kerry? The polsters tell us that the two main issues for voters are national security and the WOT. Kerry has more negatives than he does positives while Bush has more positives than negatives.
I'm going with Bush, big time. My only fear in this election is that with all my needling and goading of Kerry voters, I still won't be able to get their money out of their pockets and into mine.
I live in SC and work in and around the nuclear industry so I lead a politically sheltered life and not many of my contact or friends would vote for Kerry, or any Democrate for that matter. All we can do at this point is vote.
It's over, the Redskins lost!
It's time to bury that with the Curse if the Bambino.
It is a myth. Both 1998 and 2000 were predicted to have skewed results favorable to Republicans because of weather. None of it materialized.
Well, if Lieberman was the candidate I wouldn't feel too bad about losing. We could keep a good foreign policy while the Republicans could go back to trying to cut spending. It's just the war on terror stuff that scares me so much with Kerry.
Our local Tucson morning show just quoted a Fox poll showing Bush two down nationally. Incredible. They are saying the Bib Ladin tape helped Kerry.
You work in the nuclear industry whereas the Democrat Party has just about destroyed this avenue for power and your co-workers are all voting democrat???? Amazing, the numbers of useful idiots out there.
Our local Tucson morning show just quoted a Fox poll showing Bush two down nationally. Incredible. They are saying the Bin Ladin tape helped Kerry.
Correction for spelling.
I believe Bush will win. I believe it more firmly today than I did last week. Kerry has to pull off too many states to win this thing, and I just don't believe he can manage it. I believe too many voters will pull that lever for Bush, "warts and all," as George Will stated in his Washington Post column yesterday. There are things that I am not happy with Bush about, but no way does that sway me to entrust our security and economic future with a Euro-weenie lovin' Massachusetts liberal! I can't believe that the voters will be that stupid. Bush will win!
Neal who?
Think Reagan/Carter 1980.
Is there REPUBLICAN LAWYERS SOMEWHERE?
Weekend polls always underrepresent Republicans.
Well, yes. But Republican lawyers actually have respect for the Law.
The Dem lawyers in this case are ambulance-chasing partisons who have studied the Law with the intent of subverting it and stealing the election.
Welcome to FR, by the way.
Stop with the doom and gloom this is Bush in a landslide. The evangelicals will vote in droves driven to the polls by faith. Believe it. All early voters are mostly Democrats becasue they have been herded and Kerry is still not making much headway in ealy votes. You can only vote once and We will all be voting for George W. Bush Tomorrow so don't get discouraged. Get active.
Interesting. His ratings on tape delay in Pittsburgh are actually beating Rush Limbaugh who is on live opposite Neal's show. I couldn't disagree more with you about his radio show. It's by far the most entertaining, and he goes out of his way looking for callers who disagree with him. Unlike Limbaugh, who's sanitized, nobody but dittoheads get through, bore of a radio show takes no such challenges. You may disagree with Boortz's philosohpy, but his show is riot to listen to. I get drowsy when Limbaugh comes on.
Boortz was wrong in 2000 & '02.
He's going for three ia a row.
Think Reagan/Carter 1980.
I would rather think Reagan/Mondale 1984. ;0)
Nothing could be further from the truth. I have lost count of how many calls from liberals Rush has taken.
Rush has an air of defeatism about him today as well. He'll deny it, but it's obvious. All we can do is vote and try to convince others on our side to as well.
Putz.
Exactly....5% or less on either side is impacted by who is elected President... I see not a whole lot happening either way...
Entertainment value will be there no matter who wins...
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