Puerto Rico Elections Poll: Pro-Statehood Candidates Leading

El Vocero de Puerto Rico (Spanish-language article) ^ | October 28, 2004 | Maricelis Rivera Santos

[rrstar96]

(English-language edited translation)

With five days to go before the general elections in Puerto Rico, a poll by local radio station Isla 1320 gives a 4.5% lead in the Governor’s race to former Governor and pro-statehood New Progressive Party (PNP) candidate Pedro Rosselló over Resident Commissioner and pro-Commonwealth Popular Democratic Party (PPD) candidate Aníbal Acevedo-Vilá.

According to poll results, Rosselló would get 49.5% of the vote, while Acevedo would get 45.0%. Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP) candidate Rubén Berríos-Martínez comes a distant third, with 4.3%. The poll, which was conducted between October 14 and 22, has a margin of error of +/- 3%. Undecided voters constituted 1.2% of those polled.

This Radio Isla 1320 poll for October was the last in a series of five commissioned by Professor Ricardo Fors-Navas with the University of Puerto Rico; a total sample of 1,500 voters from 76 of the island’s 78 municipalities participated. The first poll was conducted in June.

Regarding the Resident Commissioner’s race, PNP candidate Luis Fortuño comes out the victor with 49.9% of the vote as compared to the PPD’s Roberto Prats (45.8%) and the PIP’s Edwin Irizarry-Mora (3.0%). Likewise, the poll for Mayor of San Juan has the incumbent, Jorge Santini with the PNP, winning re-election with 49% against the PPD’s Eduardo Bhatia (44.2%) and the PIP’s Fernando Martín (4.5%).

[rrstar96]

The same newspaper reporting this radio-station poll will release its own final poll results tomorrow.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I believe that this poll understates support for all three of those pro-statehood candidates. I predict that Pedro Rosselló will win 51%-45%-4%, Luis Fortuño will win 51%-46%-3%, and Jorge Santini will win 53%-43%-4%.

While Rosselló is a crime-fighting, tax-cutting Democrat, Fortuño and Santini are staunch Republicans. Resident Commissioner candidate Luis Fortuño is a Republican National Committeeman and will caucus with the GOP when he gets to Congress (as is the case for Delegates from DC, the USVI, Guam and American Samoa, the Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico only gets to vote in committees and sub-committees). San Juan Mayor Jorge Santini was the only mayor of a large U.S. city to endorse publicly the repeal of the Assault Weapons Ban, for which he has been targeted for defeat by the anti-gun Brady Coalition.

[GWB00]

Rosselló is a crook.

Secondly, I don't think Conservatives or Republicans want Puerto Rico to become a state. We are automatically guaranteed 2 more Democratic Senators and at least one or two Democratic Congressman if this happens.

It will really become a welfare state

[Joe Boucher]

If Puerto Rico were to become a state, it would cost the United states tens of billions of dollars just to get the country up to the minimal standards of say Mississippi.

Then take into account they are mostly democrat which would mean two more rat senators and loads of more welfare roles with much higher payments

Oh yeah and did anyone think that maybe the national language is spanish?

Nice fit, how about British Columbia or Alberta maybe instead?

[Verginius Rufus]

Puerto Rico has almost 4 million inhabitants so it would probably get 6 Representatives (5 at a minimum). I hope this remains in the realm of hypothetical situations.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I don't think Conservatives or Republicans want Puerto Rico to become a state. We are automatically guaranteed 2 more Democratic Senators and at least one or two Democratic Congressman if this happens."

---

On what evidence do you base that prediction? Puerto Rico has never voted for Democrats or Republicans, and your assumption that they will vote Democrat seems to be based on the fact that (mostly low-income) children and grandchildren of Puerto Ricans in NYC and Chicago vote Democrat for President. But have you noticed that the Irish and Italians and Poles and just about every other ethnicity in NYC and Chicago votes Democrat for President? Before you make any such predictions, you should wait until we get next Tuesday's voting statistics from Florida. Most Puerto Ricans who live in Florida are actually recent transplants from the Island, and a recent poll conducted by The Latino Coalition showed President Bush ahead of Kerry by 44%-43% among Florida Puerto Ricans. While Florida Puerto Ricans voted for Gore in 2000, they voted for Jeb in 2002 and seem poised to make the GOP their permanent home, since they are for the most part very culturally conservative and understand the importance of the War on Terror.

BTW, if Puerto Rico were to become a state, it would rank 25th in population and would elect 2 Senators and 6 Representatives. I have no idea who would get elected at first---probably likeable politicians who had previously run under the local party labels---but within a few years I think you'd find that Puerto Rican voters are very similar to those in Louisiana: Very conservative on social issues, more liberal on economic issues, very pro-military and very protectionist of local industries. Pollster Frank Luntz found that voters in Puerto Rico ranked as very conservative on every social issue that he asked about except the death penalty (where the Catholic tradition leads most people to oppose it, although not as much as they used to). If I had to guess, I would say that 20 years after Puerto Rico is admitted as a state it will have 1 Republican and 1 Democrat Senator and 3 Republican and 3 Democrat Representatives.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Oh, and saying that "Rosselló is a crook" is the equivalent of saying that "Cheney planned the Iraq War so that Halliburton could steal government money." Rosselló has never been charged with any crimes, and it sure hasn't been for lack of trying.

[Aetius]

Agreed. Puerto Rico should never be admitted as a state, no matter what Puerto Ricans think. I'm sure most Americans oppose statehood for them, but what frightens me is the me-too panderism of the GOP leadership when it comes to all things Hispanic, and the near total separation of both parties from what most Americans think about immigration related issues. In other words, they'd probably do it against the will of the people. Newt Gingrich showed he is capable of supremem moments of stupidity several yrs ago when he suggested making Puerto Rico a state as a way to win the Hispanic vote!

As you said, not only would it result in two more Democratic Senators, it would also result in at least one more Democrat in the House, and at least 3 more automatic electoral votes for the Dems.

[Clemenza]

Yeah, I want a state where the majority of the population receives foodstamps via the EB Card and where a large number of the remainders depends on the government for employment.

Puerco Rico should keep commonwealth status, as they get the best of both worlds (bennies from Tio Samuel and no income tax).

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Oh yeah and did anyone think that maybe the national language is spanish?"

---

Puerto Rico has two official languages---English and Spanish, as it has had for 102 of the past 104 years (all but for a couple of years in the early 1990s when the pro-Commonwealth party eliminated English as an official language, which cost them the election in 1992---the pro-statehood party gained the governorship and 2/3 majorities in both houses of the legislature).

[Clemenza]

As always, I admire your optimism. I just wish the Boricua would wean themselves off the government teat a bit more. I have a feeling that the two Senators from PR would make Robert Byrd look like a spendthrift by comparison.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Yeah, I want a state where the majority of the population receives foodstamps via the EB Card and where a large number of the remainders depends on the government for employment."

---

Source?


"Puerco Rico should keep commonwealth status, as they get the best of both worlds (bennies from Tio Samuel and no income tax)."

---

I hope the "Puerco" thing was just a typo. : )

And given the fact that under "commonwealth status" Puerto Rico receives around $12 billion a year from the federal government without paying federal income taxes, why do you support that arrangement? Wouldn't it be better if Puerto Rico paid income taxes as well? And do you really think that any state of the Union would be better off if it lost its voting representation in Congress? So why would Puerto Rico be better off without it?

[cynwoody]

Cut it loose and let it float down to Argentina!

[Clemenza]

Either a typo or a Freudian slip. ;-)

I don't know about the current statistic, but I do remember an AEI study a few years back that stated that the majority of the Puerto Rican population (albeit a slight majority) received food stamps. I also have anecdotal evidence (flame away) from people I know who are involved in the consumer products markets in the commonwealth.

[Meldrim]

Will they learn to speak English before they become a state?

[rrstar96]

"We are automatically guaranteed 2 more Democratic Senators and at least one or two Democratic Congressman if [Puerto Rico becomes a state]."

There is no guarantee that Puerto Rico would be an overwhelmingly Democratic state in perpetuity. Just look at what happened to the "Solid South" which the Democrats took for granted for the longest time. Today, that same South is a Republican stronghold.

In any event, party affiliations should never be an issue when considering a territory's request to become a state. If we follow this line of thinking, then we Republicans might as well tell the strongly-Democratic New England states to leave the Union!

[dfwgator]

The only use PR had to use was Vieques and now that's gone. I say it's time to cut them loose.

[bmwcyle]

I hope we cut them loose.

[Estadobabe2005]

Honey, I live in Puerto Rico and all of you that say that Puerto Rico does not pay taxes are wrong. People in Puerto Rico do pay taxes to the government each year, a lot in taxes if I may say. Specially the 2nd class citizents. Yes a lot of Puertorricans live of cupons for food and they also are granted a healthcare. But It really pisses me off to know that you guys are so ignorant to know that when a business here in PR passes are certain point in its income it DOES HAVE TO PAY federal income taxes!! We also DO PAY social security. You are also ever so ignorant to know that the majority of LATINOS in the US are Puertorricans and that the BIGGEST minority in the present momment at the US in Latinos. And we have all been granted US citizenship and you cant take it away overnight if it were to happen many puertorricans would move over there and then move back and when they have their kids have them there and bring them here to live. I cannot understand why some of you are separatists and dont want us there. If you want Bush as a president you better consider the Puertorrican vote, the primary latino vote and the perspective also other latinos have of your view of puertorricans because they might also feel that you want to exterminate Puertorricans out of ¨YOUR¨ country and then them. Think it twice before you talk!!