Posted on 09/23/2004 5:22:32 PM PDT by ambrose
Posted on Thu, Sep. 23, 2004
Polls conducted in wake of Ivan gives Bush an edge in Florida
BRENT KALLESTAD
Associated Press
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - President Bush has taken a slight lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in Florida in the aftermath of three hurricanes that ravaged the state over a five-week period, two new polls suggest.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday shows Bush at 49 percent, Kerry at 41 percent and independent Ralph Nader at 5 percent.
A Gallup poll of likely voters taken for CNN and USA Today, also released Thursday, shows Bush with 49 percent, Kerry with 46 percent, Nader with 2 percent and 3 percent with no opinion.
If Nader were not on the ballot, the Gallup poll shows Bush with 49 percent, Kerry with 47 percent and 4 percent choosing no opinion or other.
However, a poll conducted in Florida by the American Research Group in recent days shows the race close - Kerry at 46 percent and Bush at 45 percent - leaving some questions about the state of the race after the hurricanes.
Polling is difficult at a time when large regions of the state are recovering from natural disasters like hurricanes, including the most recent storm, Ivan, which badly damaged the Florida Panhandle. Many people have lost their homes or evacuated their damaged homes - making it impossible to reach them.
Quinnipiac's survey also indicated the state's U.S. Senate contest between Republican Mel Martinez and Democrat Betty Castor is a virtual tossup. Only 16 percent of the respondents said they've paid close attention to the race for the seat being vacated by three-term U.S. Sen. Bob Graham.
The Gallup poll gave Castor the edge. Castor had 51 percent, Martinez 45 percent and 4 percent either chose no opinion or other, according to the survey.
"The ill winds of the hurricane season have blown a lot of political good for President Bush," said Clay Richards, assistant polling director for Quinnipiac. "If you look at the numbers who give Bush credit for coming to Florida. It's a natural. It's like Rudy Giuliani on 9-11."
Florida voters said Bush was a better leader than Kerry by 57 percent to 37 percent and has done a better job explaining what he would do as president by a 54-37 margin, according to the Quinnipiac survey.
The same poll Aug. 12 had Kerry and Edwards slightly ahead with the support of 47 percent compared to 41 percent who said they favored Bush and Cheney.
Richards said some problems associated with Hurricane Ivan were encountered during the survey.
"As a result our sample size is smaller than we like to have," he said. "We normally poll 1,000. (But) we got the proper proportion out of the Panhandle."
The heavy rains from Ivan also knocked out one shift at Quinnipiac's polling site in Connecticut when power was lost. The poll claims a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Voters in Quinnipiac's poll approved of Bush's handling of the hurricanes by 78 percent to 14 percent and 50 percent said they approved of the president's overall performance compared to 47 percent who disapproved. That reversed the August figure of 54 percent who disapproved compared to 44 percent who approved.
Kerry, meanwhile, was rated favorably by 34 percent and unfavorable by 41 percent.
The storms also boosted Gov. Jeb Bush's approval rating to 62 percent favorable compared to 30 percent unfavorable from a 45-44 split just 40 days ago, the Quinnipiac survey showed.
Senate hopefuls Martinez and Castor were favorably seen by nearly a third of those questioned, but two in five voters said they knew little about either, according to the Quinnipiac poll.
The Quinnipiac survey of 819 likely voters was taken Sept. 18-21 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The Gallup poll of 674 likely voters was taken Sept. 18-22 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The ARG poll of 600 likely voters was taken Sept. 17-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
ON THE NET
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11358.xml
Gallup Poll: http://www.gallup.com
Kerry's numbers go down after he visits a state.
I just wish the McCollum supporters would "put some ice on it" and support Martinez. Its sickening that Castro, er, Castor, is beating him in the polls.
Man, this last hour has been a 1..2..3..4 punch. The DUmmies must be hysterical.
EGAD! imagine the dem's reasoning behind this year's demands for recounts and accusations of disenfranchisement!
Kerry will lose Florida. Big Time.
God does have his mysterious ways of working!!!!!!!!!!
Graham would have got him Florida. He is known well among the "corrider" voters. Graham wouldn't get much mileage anywhere else, though I'm not sure Edwards is either.
How can you be a "likely voter" and yet have "no opinion" in the presidential race? Isn't that almost contradictory?
Graham's approval ratings are close to 70% in the Quinnipac poll of Florida...
Quinnapiac has bush up 6 or 7 in Florida and the I-4 corridor poll has similar numbers. Bush is up. I think, like the guy at RealClearPolitics said, people are rejecting Kerry. 'Experts' say people firm up at labor day and I think that is what happened more than Swift Bosts..people, who took a look at Kerry and toyed with supporting him, have decided not to.
Agree that Graham would not have helped outside of Florida, but Edwards won’t help anywhere, not even in NC. The first and only reason to select a VEEP IMO is to get Electoral Votes that you wouldn’t otherwise get. Florida is close enough that a favorite son candidate might have pulled it out.
Unless there are federal election observers (like Missouri had in 2002 and SD will probably have this year), hurricane choas will look like a dry-run by comparison. If I were Jeb, I would seriously consider asking the Justice Department to send people in from Civil Rights Division, Voting Rights Department to monitor the show this time round. Furthermore, it's amazing how many people who were going to vote twice reconsider when they realize the Feds are watching.
Florida has had enough indecisiveness with all the hurricanes this year. Floridians don't need an indecisive commander-in-chief.
Paula Zahn marvelling at the drop in Floridians who say things are getting worse in the economy. Last month only 41% of Floridians said economy was getting worse...now it is 57%...
Well DUH...a few hurricanes may make a difference...still nearly 2 million without power...people are responding to actual conditions and linking that to the question of being better off at a point in time.
Is Paula Zahn blaming Bush for the hurricanes?
Is it really an election if the Dems don't:
a) screw it up
b) try to steal it
c) sue when they lose?
Floridians reacting to hurricane conditions and linking that to the question "do you think the economy is getting better?" Last month, 57% said YES...in this poll, only 41% said YES...
It is hard to look at rubble and say the economy is better even though it may be true.
Yes.
Oh, we could add so many "qualifers" to that list. How about "Nominate the most irritating, arrogant, elitest, unlikable sycophant?" "Say the Republicans are going to steal your Social Security"? (I always liked the ones of the kids treat-or-treating with an eerie voice coming from behind saying, "Boo--Reagan's going to steal your Social Security....") They've been using that from time in memorial. You know things are getting desparate when they bring up that old line. Or now, say "Bush is going to re-institute the draft"? Or "Use voo-doo accounting in their campaign financing"?
and that creature masquarading as a human being Michael Moore has pledged to serve as an election observer in Florida! Ugh!
I was actually hoping that the Gallup numbers would be a bit better for Bush in Florida, although I realize that the hurricanes have hit the more heavily Republican parts of the state. But I'll take it.
Is he registered to vote in Florida? Isn't there some sort of state residency requirements about interloping at an election site?
as far as i know, he's registered in ny and michigan. some states have regulations governing who can be an observer... that they must be registered to vote in that district they are observing but have been unable to confirm all that.
After serving as one of the House Impeachment managers, McCollum feels that he is entitled to a lifetime of conservative support. After having no primary opposition in 2000, McCollum must have really felt insulted when he faced stiff opposition in the 2004 primary.
[Polling is difficult at a time when large regions of the state are recovering from natural disasters like hurricanes, including the most recent storm, Ivan, which badly damaged the Florida Panhandle. Many people have lost their homes or evacuated their damaged homes - making it impossible to reach them.]
If these polls were conducted without giving the Panhandle its proper political weight, then Bush must be up by more. Plus, I'd wager that Mel and Castor are in fact tied with Panhandle voters factored in.
Too close for comfort. And it's REALLY bad that Castor's up. She's the most dangerous Senate candidate in the nation. I'd honestly vote for Howard Dean first. Mel can certainly turn this around, but he needs to come out swinging, and come out swinging NOW.
McCollum should have kept his 'Congressman for life' seat. At the very least he should have retired gracefully after his 2000 loss. He's done more to hurt Martinez then Castor has so far.
I'll be the first to admit,Martinez threw some elbows, but so did McCollum. They really need to suck it up and stop screwing their own people.
I think Gallup is probably more accurate. I don't think Nader is taking 5% of anything, as Quinnipiac indicates.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.