Posted on 09/13/2004 2:36:20 PM PDT by JeffAtlanta
From Electoral-Vote.com: I have it on good authority that overseas voters are registering in huge numbers this time, maybe double or triple 2000. I was told that the number of people who showed up at the Democratic party caucus in England earlier this year was 10 times what it was in 2000, ditto in other countries. Americans overseas vote in the state they last lived in, even if that was decades ago. There are about 7 million overseas Americans and probably about 5 million are over 18. In Florida, it was the overseas absentee ballots that swung the election. I believe that something like 8% are military, but the rest are students, teachers, artists, government workers, business executives, spouses of foreign nationals, missionaries, retirees, and more. What is significant here is that these people represent a lot of votes and are not included in any of the polls. Nobody knows if they are largely Democrats or Republicans, but their votes could be one of the big surprises of this election. if anyone has any actual data (as opposed to speculation) on this group, I'd be interested.
I personally think it is BS....
I also think the number of voters overseas is well more than 8% military...maybe more like 80%
this is also from a site that has Kerry projected to be the electoral winner too, when no one else does....
I'm sure that will be offset by the massive domestic illegal immigrant voting block that Dubya believes will vote for him.
Yeah, I agree. Could that 7 million overseas US citizens figure be right?
Historically the overseas votes have tended GOP. At least that is what most commentators I have heard say up to now.
I just saw a report about military voting. It stated that the military voting rate is around 70%. They went on to say that the actual numbers of military voters is higher than Alaska, Delaware and a couple of other states combined.
The DUmmies are convinced that all these new voters will actually show up and vote for Kerry. If they do, he could win.
Personally, I have a hard time believing that Kerry will motivate very many people who have never shown up to vote before in their entire lives to come out and support him, but we won't know for sure until November 2.
No, it's ours.
The economic background of those living overseas tends to be either upper middle class or military.
Both are traditionally good demographics for Republicans.
Worrisome. One hopes there are sufficient checks to ensure that all of the people "registering" are in fact citizens with the right to do so. However, one would not bet on this, if one were smart.
KLOSTERNEUBURG, Austria - Rubber ducks scribbled with the names of John Kerry and George W. Bush bob and swirl down a babbling brook in this Vienna suburb.
"Go, John, go!" shouts a group of American expatriates, some using hockey sticks to give the Kerry ducks a helpful slap downstream. Not surprisingly, the Democrat wins by a waterslide.
The Federal Election Commission wouldn't approve. But the Austrian chapter of Democrats Abroad says the mock race achieved its aim: to awaken the 7,000 Americans in Austria to the approaching U.S. presidential election, and get eligible voters to register.
Mindful of the recount fiasco that put Bush in the White House four years ago, Democrats and Republicans everywhere from Hong Kong to Hungary are aggressively targeting American expatriates, whose absentee ballots could prove decisive in a tight race.
With an estimated 3 million U.S. citizens of voting age living overseas, "We're like the 51st state," said Katie Solon, a Colorado Springs, Colo., native and Democrats Abroad volunteer in Austria. "We're riding a wave of renewed interest."
Strong anti-American sentiment overseas is driving U.S. citizens to register to vote, and both Democrats and Republicans could benefit. On the GOP side, a backlash against the anti-Bush fervor has attracted Republicans, while dismay over Bush's stewardship is getting Democrats who haven't voted for more than 30 years.
Republicans, who claim to dominate the overseas vote by a 3-to-1 margin, are mobilizing to ensure him a second term.
"It's difficult to be an American abroad now with the hatred around the world for the U.S. government and President Bush," said Stephen O'Connor, who runs Republicans Abroad in Hungary, where an estimated 20,000 Americans live. "You need thick skin to be an American."
"What we're seeing, all of us, is this malaise, this feeling of anti-Americanism," said Nancy Galan, chairwoman of Republicans Abroad in Italy, home to an estimated 60,000 Americans of voting age.
Eileen Wilkinson, of the Rome chapter of Democrats Abroad Italy, said people have signed up "who haven't voted since Nixon in 1960 or McGovern in 1972."
In Hong Kong, Republicans Abroad is getting daily inquiries from the 50,000-strong U.S. expatriate community, vice chairman Mark Simon said. Bush's narrow victory over Al Gore in 2000 has driven home the message that every vote matters, he said.
Canada, Mexico and Britain have the world's biggest American communities. Fourth is Germany, with roughly 250,000, and party activists are trying to draw interest with visits by former Vice President Dan Quayle and Kerry's sister, Diana.
"We have 33 Senate races that are going to decide who controls Congress," said Ronald Schlundt, chairman of Democrats Abroad Germany. "Bush is almost certain to win Alaska, but it looks like a Democrat might win the Senate seat there. I registered someone from Alaska the other day."
Overseas voters can find it a hassle to get absentee ballots from their home states, and traditionally haven't played a key role in past presidential elections. Turnout in 2000 was 37 percent among expatriates, compared to 51.3 percent overall.
No one knows just how many Americans abroad intend to vote this time, since the party groups can only give them registration forms to mail to the U.S. county where they voted last.
But election fever runs strong. Democrats Abroad Thailand recently revived itself after lying dormant for 16 years. It now has chapters in Bangkok and the northern city of Chiang Mai, and has participated in conference calls with Kerry and former presidential hopefuls Howard Dean, Wesley Clark and Dennis Kucinich.
"The response has been incredible," said the group's head, Gary Suwannarat.
Peter Kropp, a suburban Washington, D.C., native who works for a cosmetics company in Belgium, didn't vote in 2000.
He registered this year, he said, because he disagrees with the Bush administration's handling of the economy and the gay marriage issue - "and because I'm tired of always having to apologize for American behavior."
God bless our troops wherever they may be.
possibly....figure there are about 4 million overseas military, government civilians, embassy personnel, contractors and their assorted dependents
there is also this, if they are voting from overseas, that means it is by absentee balloting. Absentee balloting is only used when the elections are close, i.e. within 1 or 2%....
If you are a military voter overseas, you can register in Pa or Fla or anywhere you want. Please pick a battleground state like those two if possible and vote where you will definitely make a difference. And vote EARLY!
Actually this is untrue, knowing what we know now. The Daily News revealed that 46,000 New Yorkers also illegally voted twice--in Florida--in 2000. Considering that Gore won NY by nearly 70% yields approx 32,000 fraudulent votes for Gore in Florida. Therefore Bush did not win by 587 votes, but rather 32,587 odd votes. In other words...it wasn;'t even close!
Overseas votes have favored the GOP because of the military vote except for Israel which favors dem's, but this year the dem's are trying to get anyone who was born in he US and lives abroad to vote against. Hell they held a Kerry voter drive in Kabul a few weeks ago. What will be interesting is how many are actually American citizens. If Dem's would sign up non-citizens to vote here, what's to stop them from signing up others overseas
I hope there is some way to verify every one of these voters. I don't trust Dems.
Very large concentration of expats is in Israel, I believe.
That should be great news for Bush!
Doesn't matter how many are registered.They have to vote.Their have been no reports of large scale request for absentee ballots.If they are first time voters they will probably miss the deadlines.
Ooops..telly should read tally! :)
Varies by state.First they have to request it by mail after a certain date .(about now).Probably takes several weeks both ways.They then have to vote and have it notorized.(most likely rquires a trip to consulate)Then it has to be returned prior to election date in some states or postmarked by election day.
The military itself does that every election. It's nothing new. What is new this year is ads in "Stars and Stripes" from both Republican and Democratic oversea groups offering help with registration.
I've seen a couple of references to Kerry's sister Peggy working on this issue.
She was recently in Mexico firing up the expats there to get registered. And in another country too, though I can't remember which one.
So there is something to this.
Matt Blunt of MO proposed that military voters stationed overseas be allowed to vote by email. It's looking good.
Here's one link to a story about the Kerry sister:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1187113/posts
No you can't, unless you want to lie under oath.
You would first have to declare the state as your home of record.Many choose Fla. because their is no income tax.
Hardly. Overseas voters are the military, a demographic never known for its liberalism, and businessmen, who perennially resent the fact that Americans are the only overseas workers who pay double income taxes.
kerry won't,their blind hatred of President Bush may.
Make sure all Republicans you know vote.
Don't forget billy was elected twice.(which still boggles my mind.)
tdfhg
Military, businessfolks, engineers tend to go GOP.
Teachers, journos, students, NGOs tend to go Rat.
There are no real statistics on how things break, and no one really knows how many "expats" are actually overseas.
For reasons you'd have to be there to understand, a lot of expats will express mild leftie leanings to avoid headaches, even though they'll vote GOP.
You'll find most of these voters lived in urban(democratic strongholds) or far and flung apart areas. If they were all from say, PA I'd be worried...but that isn't the case.
Oh, passport? Silly moi. I have left it on ze dresser in my other pair of pantaloons. But zat should not matter. Just look at moi. Of course I am an Amerecane. After all, vous let my cousin, Jean, run for President this year, non?
Bush should go to Isreal (Florida votes).
Boy would that pi** a lot of people off.
well I wouldnt be surprised about PA in either case....
I lived there for 14 years and hated every minute of it :)
At one point I thought Kerry was the Democrat answer to Dole as a candidate. I now think he is the Democrat equivalent to Goldwater, as an inept candidate that is. The diference is, Goldwater never tried to tailor his message to his audience while Kerry hasn't a clue as to what his message should be.
There are about 4 million Americans living overseas. I don't see them as being an influential voting bloc. I doubt if 50% even vote. Even if you assume that 3 million are over 18 and 50% vote, you only have 1.5 million voters spread over 50 states. Also, their votes will be spilt primarily among the two main political parties. Unless there is a significant concentration in one state, I doubt if they will have any significant impact on the election. Florida was an exception in 2000.
I do too...for different reasoons. One is that the Electoral College will dilute these votes to near insignificance. Yes, overseas voters represent a very large block of votes. But they are not all from the same state.
That 70% rate has probably gone up just for the fact that the last person they want for President is John Fonda Kerry.
That raises a good question. If an overseas ballot is not signed correctly or is postmarked after election day should it be counted?
Voter drives and get out the vote campaigns are part of the election process and help determine the winners in some cases.... Everyone that has the right to vote should excercise it matter where they are located....
It's not as cut and dried as it appears.
http://usmilitary.about.com/cs/militarylaw1/a/homeofrecord.htm
Here in Florida the ballots haven't yet been certified. Absentee ballots must be postmarked by election day.
Voting by email is a disastrous idea. Hacking email is child's play.
The votes would be handled by the Dept of Defense.
www.sacbee.com/24hour/technology/ story/1605004p-9260817c.html -
There must be a way their vote can be secure. I am sure that the military exchanges classified info via the net...surely there is a way that votes can also be exchanged in such a way...better than have them tossed out like they were in fla.
I would bet many of the govt workers, retirees and even teachers are ex military.
Check out the faq on the site...the site is very pro-Kerry. Looks like a "forged" map to me...lol lol
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