Tropical Depression FIVE

National Weather Service ^ | August 13, 2004 | NOAA National Weather Service / Forecaster Stewart

[bwteim]

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Wtnt35
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tcpat5 Bulletin Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1 NWC TPC/National Hurricane center Miami fl 5 pm ast Fri Aug 13 2004
...Tropical depression five develops east of the Windward Islands...

Watches may be required for portions of the lesser antilles by saturday morning. Interests in the lesser antilles and the eastern caribbean sea should closely monitor this system over the next few days.

At 5 pm ast...2100Z...The center of tropical depression five was located near latitude 8.9 North...Longitude 46.2 West or about 1045 miles...1680 Km...East-southeast of the windward islands.

The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 Km/hr... And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 Km/hr...With higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm by saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 Inches.

Repeating the 5 pm ast position... 8.9 N... 46.2 W. Movement toward...West near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 Mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 Mb.

For storm information specific to your area...Please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 11 pm ast.

Forecaster stewart

$$

[bwteim]

In case anyone might feel that Hurricane Charley left them out, here's another system that bears watching in a few days.

See also http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1190913/posts for TD #4, the other system that is currently out over water.

[bwteim]

Link to full size image

[bwteim]

FYI

[cripplecreek]

Charlie isn't done yet. He's looking at the Carolinas for tomorrow.

[Wampus SC]

Oh no. The track looks just like Charley.

[bwteim]

It does, doesn't it?
Here's an alternate track for you:

Camille from 1969

[Strategerist]

Charley was a fairly unusual track for an early August Storm, esp. starting in that location.

5 is more than likely to go south of Charley.

[TheLion]

"Oh no. The track looks just like Charley."

We should just call this one Charley 2.

[bwteim]

You're right, was just bringing up the fact that there are two TD's on the map now that may or may not materialize.

[cripplecreek]

My mother is a truck driver who was supposed to deliver to Tampa this afternoon. Her terminal callled her off and sent her ton Georgia.

[plsvn]

We should just call this one Charley 2

This one will be different. The upper air models for the middle and late part of next week don't show the unusual deep trough as is in place right now and what was responsible for turning Charlie (1) into the Ft. Myers area rather than Tampa. My guess is TD5 crosses western Cuba, initially takes aim at New Orleans, but eventually hits Mobile or the western Florida Panhandle. (Heck I feel quite cocky after thinking Charlie (1) would go in between Sarasota and Ft. Myers rather than Tampa).

[bwteim]

Hope she stays safe. There would probably be no way she could go on I-75 easily for a while. There were news shots of people staying in South Georgia who had left Tampa Bay area. They'll want to come home soon since the Bay area was not hit.

[Strategerist]

Quite possible for 5 to just plow into Honduras or Mexico or something, too.

[boycott]

I hope you're wrong because I am in Mobile.

[plsvn]

I hope you're wrong because I am in Mobile.

Looks like I am... looking like NE Mexico or maybe extreme southern Texas now. Upper air patterms for the end of next week don't look strong enough to pull it north any more.