Posted on 08/10/2004 5:46:00 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur
Kris Kobach now faces a puzzle that has confounded three previous Republican candidates in Kansas' 3rd Congressional District.
How do you defeat U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore, a Democrat, and end his astonishing record of beating the GOP three times in a heavily Republican district?
Moore amazed Kansas Republicans six years ago by defeating an incumbent Republican congressman, Rep. Vince Snowbarger, an Olathe conservative.
In two subsequent elections, he has proved that his 1998 victory wasn't a fluke.
Three elections have shown that 50 percent of the voters appear comfortable with the 58-year-old congressman from Lenexa who spent 12 years as Johnson County's popular district attorney.
Here's what Kobach is up against:
• In each election, Moore has taken advantage of the split in the GOP between moderates and conservatives by running as a pro-business, independent moderate who isn't tied to either party when votes are cast in Washington. It's a message designed to attract independent voters.
• When facing a conservative, Moore activates Republicans for Moore as a way to attract moderate Republican voters to his banner.
• Unlike his GOP rival, Moore didn't have to spend much money on a primary election and enters the general election campaign with a huge advantage in campaign cash.
• On election day, Moore loses heavily Republican Johnson County but stays close enough to overcome that loss by rolling up the winning margins in Wyandotte and Douglas counties.
To defeat Moore, Kobach, an Overland Park conservative, must attempt to dismantle the Democrat's success formula. It hasn't been an easy task.
Political observers said a key to Kobach's success against Moore is whether he can broaden his message to attract more than just conservatives.
That is why words of GOP unity were on the lips of the party's nominee when it was announced Monday that he had enough votes to claim victory. He defeated Republican Adam Taff of Lake Quivira, who won the GOP primary and then lost to Moore in the general election two years ago.
“I will stand firmly on the principles that define us as Republicans,” Kobach said.
During the primary campaign, Kobach embraced conservative themes — opposing gun control, supporting restrictions on abortion rights and embryonic stem cell research and getting tough with illegal immigration.
Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas, said unity needed to be a major Kobach theme coming out of the primary campaign.
“Kobach has to do what he's been doing — walking around with Taff saying our differences are less than we have with Dennis Moore,” Loomis said.
Kevin Yowell, a political consultant and a former Snowbarger aide, said the Kobach campaign should attack Moore's base of blue-collar Democrats. After a bitter primary campaign, he isn't sure Kobach can attract enough moderate Republicans to turn the tide in his favor.
Both Loomis and Yowell agree that Kobach won't be shy about attacking Moore's record in Congress.
“He has to make this election about Dennis Moore,” Yowell said. “If he does, he has a chance.”
Kobach, 38, has promised an aggressive campaign.
“I will take the fight to Dennis Moore every day,” he said. “I will give this district a contest the likes of which it has never seen.”
Julie Merz, Moore's campaign manager, said she expects an aggressive campaign from Kobach but added that Moore has a record he will defend when it is attacked.
“We're not going to be on the defensive this whole campaign,” she said. “We're going to talk about Dennis' priorities for the next few years.”
Moore supporters say they like to run against the GOP's right wing because they believe district voters are generally more moderate on issues. The contrast becomes clearer, those supporters say, when a politically moderate Moore is running against conservatives like Snowbarger and Kansas Attorney General Phill Kline, whom Moore defeated in 2000.
Getting the message across to voters is a lot easier when the campaign treasury is full of cash. Compared to about $1 million currently available to the Moore campaign, Kobach's war chest is anemic — about $100,000.
Loomis said the GOP money tap in Washington may be difficult for Kobach to turn on if he appears too far behind in early polls.
Intra-party fighting and a close primary vote may also make tapping those dollars more difficult.
Loomis said strong polling data could convince some moderate Republicans to “hold their noses” and vote for Kobach.
But there is one intangible that might mean more than dollars.
By defeating Taff, even by a slim margin, Kobach will have some momentum going into the general election. The consensus is he'll need a lot more to beat Moore in the fall, however.
I've been watching this primary race. Korbach projects better than Taff. The long countdown and the unity appearances have done a lot to counter what Steve Rose of the Sun has tried to build as a Republican split. I think that Korbach can win. I may even volunteer to do door to door for him.
I've watched the last three. All the primaries ended with a unity conference, all the losers vowed to support the winner, and Moore won all three. There is no doubt that by running to the right of Taff Kobach has energized his conservative base. But the question is at what cost to moderates and independents. How comfortable will they be with Kobach's rigid pro-life positions and his call for the display of the 10 Commandments in public buildings? What is different about him that would make moderates 'hold their nose and vote for Kobach'? Taff said that about conservatives in his race, Kline said that about moderates in his race, what is different about this one?
"By running far to the right of Taff, Kobach has handed Moore a considerable number of moderate Republicans and has probably scared off the majority of Independents. Kobach says that he will be reaching across party lines, but with his strong pro-life stand, his call for posting the 10 Commandments in schools and public buildings, and the negative campaign he ran against Taff I don't see how he will be successful. Sorry to say but I predict Moore 51% and Kobach 46%."
The one thing that liberals/dims have always had going for them, no matter how negative their campaigns are they always come together come election day.
Across the state line in Missouri we have the former Mayor of KC, MO. "REV." Emanuel Cleaver, whose brother I think fled this country in JFKerry's hayday of "anti-war" fame, won his primary.
"Rev." Cleaver is "Rev." Jesse Jackson lite and concerns me far more than Dennis Moore, most likely will be representing the KC congressional district.
Somehow some "revs" have more status and no separation of church and state than others.
It cuts both ways. John Danforth was a pretty good senator and an Episcopalian minister to boot.
Still, I feel for you. If I had to choose between Moore and Cleaver, I'd take Moore any day.
Ping
"What is different about him that would make moderates 'hold their nose and vote for Kobach'? Taff said that about conservatives in his race, Kline said that about moderates in his race, what is different about this one?"
Good analysis and better spelling than me. LOL What people don't understand is that this race is about personality. Dennis Moore is an extremely likable person. I have known him personally. I know a lot of people at the courthouse who all but swoon when he shows up. He has groupies for crying out loud! So this is not about issues as much as it is about the cute factor. Sorry, being a female and a lawyer, I know about these things. And Kobach is really good looking. Kline and Snowbarger, especially Snowbarger, both of whom I've met, can't come close!! Kobach can. He has a sense of humor, he speaks well and has a good response to every question. He is happy and positive, not cranky like Kline and Snowbarger. Taff is nice looking but not as upbeat and, I believe that the conservatives in this district (there are a lot of them no matter what the "moderates" want to think, couldn't swallow him. I think it will be easier for the RINOs to swallow Koback than for the conservatives to swallow Taff. I don't think that there will be a lot of split tickets. There will be people happily voting Bush, Brownbeck, Kobach.
I think you underestimate the majority of the people in the 3rd District. And I strongly disagree that it will be easier for a RINO to swallow Kobach than for a conservative to swallow Taff. Most of the people that get classified as RINOs are ones who are pro-choice. Kobach has made it clear that he has no place for their position. Most independents that I know at least pay lip-service to the concept of separation of Church and State. Kobach's call for posting the 10 Commandments isn't going to play well with them. His positions on immigration are not going to endear him in Wyandotte, with it's comparatively large Latin population, and any conservative in an anathema to Douglas county. So Moore may get larger than usual pluralities in those counties. Kobach may be young and likable and pretty, but he has dug himself a hole in getting the nomination. I have my doubts that he can climb out.
I can't vote for him but I can tell you that his position on illegal aliens is very popular in my section of the state. We would like to see that present law on the subject be followed.
Many of us are looking forward to November 3, 2004!
Ping
Agreed. But you don't think that Moore is going to overlook an opportunity to ask about it, do you?
I can't vote for him but I can tell you that his position on illegal aliens is very popular in my section of the state. We would like to see that present law on the subject be followed.
It won't lose him many votes in Johnson County, either. Which is why Moore won't bring it up, but will make sure that his surrogates raise it among the hispanic population of KCK.
I've lived in this district for 11 years. I've seen Republicans come and I've seen 'em go. They eat each other in the primaries and enter the general broke and battered and divided. And for the last 3 elections Moore takes advantage of it.
Wasn't there a redrawing of Douglas County in the last redistricting? I think that part of Douglas County is now in the same district as Topeka which is solidly going to go to Jim Ryan. I agree that Wyandotte County will go to Moore. It's the most solidly dem county in the state... but there are a healthy number of Republicans in Douglas county.
That was before the 2002 election, and didn't hit Moore that much. He kept Lawrence and the Democrat parts of the county
Ryun's opponent has recently started running a commercial here in Topeka. It is EXACTLY like one of Kathleen Sebelius's commercials two years ago.
I've been a Republican committeeman in Johnson County for the last 10 years, and I consider Kline a friend. In this case I'm going to go with Mercat. She's correct regarding the female factor, personality, etc. Kobach will not win over the hard core moderates; Bond, Langworthy, Bond, Atkins, etc., but he will win more than enough to beat Moore. Kobach is a stronger candidate than Taff, Kline or Snowbarger. BTW, the latter forgot his conservative base when he left for Washington, and that's the reason he lost.
I would like to agree with you, but I think that you are wrong. I can't see where Kobach has positioned himself to reach out to the more moderate Republicans and the independents without causing questions among his conservative base.
How? What positions is he going to abandon? Will he modify his views on abortion? Go back on his support for Bush's tax cuts? Change on immigration or the Patriot Act? Backtrack on his support for public displays of the 10 Commandments? He does that and he has just alienated his base and left himself wide, wide open for attack ads. Kobach has to keep the persona he created in the primary.
How?
I am shocked and disgusted by Moore's accusation against Kris Kobach. Playing the race-card is one thing, but over-the-top racebait pandering is another. To claim that Mr. Kobach has some indirect connection to the Aryan Nation is not only absurd, it is malicious and despicable. The people of Kansas don't need a representative that is this dishonest. Mr. Moore, clean up your act, j@ck@ss!
When did he do that?
It was reported in the Kansas City Star last week. Kobach had taken money from a gun lobbyist, who at once point in 1992 had been involved with white supremicist groups--including Aryan Nation. Moore, of course, was calling for Kobach to return the $3,000.
Was it true?
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