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Giant wave could threaten US
BBC ^ | 10 August 2004

Posted on 08/09/2004 8:34:11 PM PDT by FormerACLUmember

A collapsing volcano in the Atlantic could unleash a giant wave of water that would swamp the Caribbean and much of the eastern seaboard of the United States, a scientist has claimed.

Dr Simon Day, of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at University College London, UK, believes one flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma, in the Canaries archipelago, is unstable and could plunge into the ocean.

If I was living in Miami or New York and I heard that the Cumbre Vieja was erupting, I would keep a very close eye on the news.

Swiss researchers who have modelled the landslide say half a trillion tonnes of rock falling into the water all at once would create a wave 650 metres high (2,130 feet) that would spread out and travel across the Atlantic at high speed.

The wall of water would weaken as it crossed the ocean, but would still be 40-50 metres (130-160 feet) high by the time it hit land. The surge would create havoc in North America as much as 20 kilometres (12 miles) inland.

Dr Day told BBC Science's Horizon programme: "This event would be so huge that it would affect not only the people on the island but people way over on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean - people who've never heard of La Palma."

His latest work on the subject has been published in the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research.

On the back of this work, the Geological Society of London is to write to the UK science minister, Lord Sainsbury, to make him aware of the dangers posed by so-called mega-tsunami in the Atlantic.

The society hopes he will take the issue as seriously as he has the threat from asteroid strikes.

Scientists have known of the destructive power of tsunami - huge tidal waves - for many centuries. As recently as 1998, over 2,000 people were killed by a large wave hitting the coast of Papua New Guinea.

This was caused by an offshore earthquake. But researchers believe far bigger phenomena can be created by giant landslides.

The largest wave in recorded history, witnessed in Alaska in 1958, was caused by the collapse of a towering cliff at Letuya Bay. The resulting wave was higher than any skyscraper on Earth and gouged out soil and trees to a height of 500 metres (1,640) feet) above sea level.

Geological studies have found evidence of giant landslides elsewhere in the world such as Hawaii, the Cape Verde Islands and Réunion in the Indian Ocean.

Dr Day has identified dozens of volcanic vents in the Cumbre Vieja volcano that have been formed by successive eruptions over the past 100,000 years.

He thinks water trapped between dykes of impermeable rock could create pressures that eventually lead to the western flank of the mountain falling away during some future eruption.

Hermann Fritz, of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, which has equipment to model waves created by landslides, said: "If the Cumbre Vieja were to collapse as one single block, it would lead to a giant mega-tsunami with an initial wave height of 650 metres.

"It would have a wavelength of 30 to 40 kilometres (18 to 25 miles) travelling westwards across the Atlantic at speeds up to 720 km/h (450 mph) towards America."

But researchers caution that such a catastrophe may not occur for many decades.

"There could be five more summit eruptions of the Cumbre Vieja before the western flank collapses," said Professor Bill McGuire, of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre.

"There could be 10 or there could be 20 - we simply don't know. But put it this way: if I was living in Miami or New York and I heard that the Cumbre Vieja was erupting, I would keep a very close eye on the news."


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: canaryislands; catastrophism; corliss; cumbrevieja; disaster; lapalma; tidalwave; tsunami; volcano
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To: Howlin

Leaving should be living but maybe leaving in the outcome head to daughters in Roxboro.


41 posted on 08/09/2004 9:03:00 PM PDT by boomop1
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To: FormerACLUmember
Don't quantum waves collapse when observed?

If you got enough observers, the same should happen here.

42 posted on 08/09/2004 9:03:25 PM PDT by Ken H
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To: fso301

No nukes! Save the world for conventional weapons!


43 posted on 08/09/2004 9:03:25 PM PDT by vger (asta la vista earthlinks!)
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To: Texas Eagle

You forgot the elderly.


44 posted on 08/09/2004 9:05:47 PM PDT by GSlob
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To: CindyDawg
How long would it take to reach the east coast?

"After travelling across 4,000 miles of the Atlantic for about nine hours the tsunami would hit the Caribbean islands and the east coasts of Canada and the US with devastating effect. It would stretch for many miles and sweep into the estuaries and harbours for up to 20 miles inland, destroying everything in its path."

45 posted on 08/09/2004 9:06:28 PM PDT by FormerACLUmember (Free Republic is 21st Century Samizdat)
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To: vger

Obviously this is Bush's October suprise... Drown the Blue States


46 posted on 08/09/2004 9:07:28 PM PDT by trthnjsts
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To: fso301
Why couldn't a nuclear bomb be used to neutralize/disrupt the wave?

Why not use conventional weapons (a few 'Big Bertha' JDAMS might be the ticket) in the same fashion that several small avalanches are triggered in snow country to prevent one massive avalanche.

47 posted on 08/09/2004 9:08:00 PM PDT by asgardshill (Jury Duty REJECT - Perfect 0 and 11 record stands.)
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To: fso301
Because a nuclear explosion is smaller than the wavelength of these waves. They would pass through it or around, and if you create a difraction pattern on the other side, there's the potential of creating a larger amplitude. The only way a nuclear weapon would stop it is if you blew off part of this wall that might fall. If the concern is about water inside the rocks creating pressure on it, why not just drill holes into it to let the water out?

What I fantasize about is putting a nuclear weapon inside a hurricane. Would it disrupt it, or would the added heat/energy power the cyclone (these things are heat engines, and the rising air in the eye is what causes the low pressure.

48 posted on 08/09/2004 9:08:19 PM PDT by Styria
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To: GSlob

Oh, yeah. Thanks for the assist. I also forgot the chilllllllldrun.


49 posted on 08/09/2004 9:08:50 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all)
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To: FormerACLUmember

Not much time. We need to keep a close eye on it.


50 posted on 08/09/2004 9:09:25 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: asgardshill

"It'd be a damn shame if that half a trillion tons had the help of the first Islamic nuclear weapon to get it started."
With any luck, they would start the wave going in the wrong direction, almost like in Monty Python skit.


51 posted on 08/09/2004 9:09:47 PM PDT by GSlob
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To: FormerACLUmember

Well, Krakatoa did cause a tsunami that killed many people, but its deadly effects were still limited to within a fairly small area around it.

I have a hard time believing that an explosion/landslide off the coast of Africa could cause a tsunami to travel all the way across the Atlantic ocean.

Remember that we are talking thousands of miles travelled here and that such a wave front would spread out to devastate the entire east cost of the New World. The energy required for that would just be, IMO, impossible to create with a simple landslide.


52 posted on 08/09/2004 9:09:57 PM PDT by swilhelm73 (When Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq, his son murdered 2,000 people in the Abu Gharib prison in *one* day.)
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To: asgardshill

Yeah right arm...save the MOABs for the San Andreas Fault!


53 posted on 08/09/2004 9:11:39 PM PDT by vger (asta la vista earthlinks!)
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To: vger
"Otisburg? OTISBURG? OTISBURG!?!?!?!???"
54 posted on 08/09/2004 9:13:09 PM PDT by asgardshill (Jury Duty REJECT - Perfect 0 and 11 record stands.)
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To: FormerACLUmember

We're all gonna die!


55 posted on 08/09/2004 9:14:01 PM PDT by ArcLight
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To: Styria

Oohh cool idea. Did you ever think about what would happen if you torched off a Hindenburg inside of a tornado? That's the question I need answered!


56 posted on 08/09/2004 9:14:02 PM PDT by vger (asta la vista earthlinks!)
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To: CindyDawg

Scientists have discovered that La Palma will collapse at the time of some future volcanic eruption on the summit of the Cumbre Vieja volcano. Eruptions on the summit occur on average every 200 years or so. The last summit eruption was in 1949, so it may be many decades before the next summit eruption takes place.

Furthermore, the collapse will not necessarily happen during the next summit eruption. It may well take five, ten or more summit eruptions before the collapse occurs. But scientists simply do not know how many eruptions it will take.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami_qanda.shtml


57 posted on 08/09/2004 9:14:17 PM PDT by gilliam
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To: AGreatPer

Yes.


58 posted on 08/09/2004 9:14:54 PM PDT by GATOR NAVY
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To: gilliam

No, I meant not much time to get people inland :')


59 posted on 08/09/2004 9:15:35 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: Texas Eagle
At the time I am writing this post there are 20 replies and so far no one has said: Women and minorities to be hardest hit.

No, but a small consolation would be that those Eastern coastal cities are by and large Blue Zonees.

60 posted on 08/09/2004 9:16:35 PM PDT by Plutarch
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