Posted on 07/23/2004 9:15:08 PM PDT by ckilmer
EXO WORLDS
First Contact Within 20 Years: Shostak
Will the 20s see ET roar onto center stage Mountain View CA (SPX) Jul 22, 2004 If Intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, advances in computer processing power and radio telescope technology will ensure we detect their transmissions within two decades. That's the bold prediction from a leading light at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, California. Seth Shostak, the SETI Institute's senior astronomer, based his prediction on accepted assumptions about the likelihood of alien civilisations existing, combined with projected increases in computing power.
Shostak, whose calculations will be published in a forthcoming edition of the space science journal Acta Astronautica, first estimated the number of alien civilisations in our galaxy that might currently be broadcasting radio signals.
For this he used a formula created in 1961 by astronomer Frank Drake which factors in aspects such the number of stars with planets, how many of those planets might be expected to have life, and so on. Shostak came up with an estimate of between 10,000 and 1 million radio transmitters in the galaxy.
To find them will involve observing and inspecting radio emissions from most of the galaxy's 100 billion stars. The time necessary for this formidable task can be estimated from the capabilities of planned radio telescopes- such as SETI's 1-hectare Allen Telescope Array and the internationally run Square Kilometre Array- and expected increases in the power of the microchips that sift through radio signals from space.
Shostak assumed that computer processing power will continue to double every 18 months until 2015- as it has done for the past 40 years. From then on, he assumes a more conservative doubling time of 36 months as transistors get too small to scale down as easily as they have till now.
Within a generation, radio emissions from enough stars will be observed and analysed to find the first alien civilisation, Shostak estimates. But because they will probably be between 200 and 1000 light years away, sending a radio message back will take centuries.
Paul Shuch, executive director of the SETI League, a separate organisation in New Jersey, says Shostak's prediction ignores one important factor. "It is altogether reasonable to project the development of human technology, based upon past trends and planned investments," he says.
"But predicting the date, the decade or even the century of contact is another matter because the 'other end' of the communications link is completely out of our hands. It would be nice to think we know something about the existence, distribution, technology and motivation of our potential communications partners in space, but in fact, we don't."
Shostak admits that there are myriad uncertainties surrounding his prediction, but he defends the basis on which he made it. "I have made this prediction using the assumptions adopted by the SETI research community itself."
I am up to 517 data units on my SETI at Home...
Still find myself staring at the screen hoping that maybe someday... something....
ping
I do SETI with a radio telescope.
Have you signed up with the FR group??
I also do SETI@Home with one of my logging computers. :-)
Disregard earlier question - just saw ya...
great post! bump!
As soon as I build another box, though...
Some of us are still searching for intelligent life on this planet.
Cool! :-)
My radio telescope is looking at over 3 million channels simultaneously. We are in the process of upgrading to 30 million.
Jeeeeeez!!!
BOINC-Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing
Predictor@Home is here but is shut down for maintenance at this time, it is in Alpha-test.
One problem with such an estimation is that it depends on alien civilizations using radio waves instead of gravity waves for communication.
If our current level of science is wrong, and if gravity propagation is actually faster than radio waves, then advanced civilizations may not be using radio at all, except for a brief period early in their development.
And that would explain why we haven't detected *any* off-planet life after all of these years of looking and listening. We've been looking at light and listening to radio; they've been chatting with Gravity.
5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires
Everyone knows first contact doesn't occur until 2063...
If our current level of science is wrong, and if gravity propagation is actually faster than radio waves, then advanced civilizations may not be using radio at all, except for a brief period early in their development.
From all indications, tests, and theories, gravity waves travel at exactly the speed of light. General Relativity precludes information from being transferred faster than light.
Also modulating gravity waves would require enormous energy. Would be far easier and more energy efficient to use EM. Occam's Razor.
I don't think so..any life in the universe would have been fried long ago by the intense gamma ray impulse generated by black hole collapse....that and well distributed throughout the universe.
Thanks :-)
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